Oscar Predictions – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.

2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.

The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Six Triple Eight

Focused on the sole predominantly black female battalion to serve overseas in WWII as postal clerks, Tyler Perry is behind the camera for The Six Triple Eight. Kerry Washington leads a cast that includes Ebony Obsidian, Milauna Jackson, Kylie Jefferson, Shanice Shantay, Susan Sarandon, Dean Norris, Sam Waterston, and Oprah Winfrey. The war drama is in limited release this weekend before a Netflix bow on December 20th.

This doesn’t sound like it will turn out to be Madea Goes to the Oscars. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 57. There is praise for some of the performances and highlighting an underreported true story. Yet reviews aren’t strong enough for this to be a contender… with one notable exception.

Diane Warren contributed “The Journey” to the soundtrack and it’s performed by H.E.R. As is the stuff of Oscar lore, Warren has 15 tunes that have been nominated for Best Original Song. These include “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” from Mannequin, “Because You Love Me” from Up Close & Personal, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon. Her 15th nod arrived last year courtesy of “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot. She’s 0 for 15 as far as victories. H.E.R., on the other hand, was victorious in Original Song at the 93rd ceremony courtesy of “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah. Don’t be surprised if “The Journey” makes the cut for Warren’s 16th recognition, but I don’t see it winning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The School for Good and Evil Review

The most prominent wicked force in The School for Good and Evil wants to eradicate the educational institution forever and all the characters that inhabit it. Once that was revealed, I found myself rooting for the villain’s plot to succeed. That would mean no sequels to this misguided and criminally long Netflix adaptation of Soman Chainani’s 2013 fantasy novel. There’s been several follow-ups to the written work. I won’t hold back my wish to see no more of the adventures that Cate Blanchett’s narration can’t even save.

A prologue hints at the convoluted and overstuffed plot and unimpressive CG to come. Brothers Rhian and Rafal (both played by Kit Young) have formed The School for Good and Evil (even the title could use some imagination). It’s essentially a training ground for youngsters to become players in well-known fairytales. Rafal soon double-crosses his sibling and wants all the unholy power to… be more evil? Change the happy endings of our celebrated books to tragic ones? The stakes were never clear to me or perhaps I just stopped caring.

Many moons later and away from the school in a small village, Sophie (Sophia Anne Caruso) is obsessed with princesses like Cinderella. Bored with her surroundings, she longs for acceptance to the fantastical academy. Her best friend is Agatha (Sofia Wylie) and the townspeople are convinced she’s a witch. Unlike Sophie, she has no designs on attending anywhere where Evil would likely be her team. Soon enough, they are transported there and (surprise!) Agatha is dropped off on the Good side with Sophie on the Evil one.

The friends are certain their assignments are a mistake. The School Master (Laurence Fishburne), Good School Professor Dovey (Kerry Washington), and Evil Department Head Leonora Lesso (Charlize Theron) aren’t so sure. Errors such as this don’t occur. Beyond their placements, there’s an Ivy League vibe happening with legacy admissions. Sons of Prince Charming and King Arthur are undergrads. The latter is Tedros (Jamie Flatters) and Sophie wants to prove her Princess bonafides by charming him. Yet he might have eyes for Agatha.

Much of the film is devoted to Sophie and Agatha figuring out their roles at the school. The nearly 150 minute runtime to do so is bloated. Paul Feig, director of Bridesmaids and A Simple Favor, knows how to keep comedies and satirical mysteries moving at a reasonably snappy pace. That’s a skill forgotten in this overstuffed and often garish looking experience. Only Wylie’s performance is worth a bit of praise. I know overacting is supposed to happen in this genre but with a poor screenplay, it’s not a good look for a lot of the cast (that includes Theron and Washington).

When the students achieve their magical abilities, their fingers illuminate. Kinda like E.T.! Unlike that 40-year-old alien’s pic, what’s missing is the sense of wonder. The third act culminates at a fancy ball where a campy vibe and halfway decent makeup effects hint at what could’ve been. In case you couldn’t tell, I didn’t have a ball at The School for Good and Evil.

*1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: The School for Good and Evil

Currently among the top streaming pictures on Netflix is The School for Good and Evil, Paul Feig’s adaptation of Soman Chainani’s 2013 fairytale fantasy novel. Hoping for a Potter like franchise, the jury is still out on whether that occurs. Sophia Anne Caruso and Sofia Wylie are the leads with a supporting cast of familiar faces including Charlize Theron, Kerry Washington, Laurence Fishburne, Michelle Yeoh, Rob Delaney, and Patti LuPone.

School was released in select theaters and that qualifies it for awards consideration. Given its setting and influences, categories like Costume Design or Production Design or Makeup and Hairstyling are feasible. However, the critical reception this has generated is troubling. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 35% and the Audience Score is a meh 69%.

My guess is voters will hold back including this for any races. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: The Prom

Prior to its December 11th bow on Netflix, the musical romantic comedy The Prom has screened for critics and the general consensus is that it’s a crowd pleaser that should see plenty of streams in a few days. An adaptation of the 2018 Broadway musical, super producer Ryan Murphy handles directorial duties with an impressive cast including Meryl Streep, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Keegan-Michael Key, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, and Jo Ellen Pellman.

The current Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 75%. Plenty of reviews praise its feel good vibes and that could be especially welcome in this thing we call 2020. On the other hand, the negative reaction is quite negative and that includes some pretty high profile publications that include EW and The AV Club. Netflix has plenty of major Oscar contenders this year and I wonder how hard they’ll press for inclusion here. While it should nab some Golden Globe nods (including the Musical/Comedy Picture race), the Academy’s love is far less certain.

If audiences sing its praises and it’s a runaway hit, I believe The Prom has an outside shot at Picture. As for its performers, Streep should never be counted out and this would mark her 22nd nomination. I feel her chances in the final five are better than they were a couple weeks back, but I’m currently reluctant having her make the cut. Same goes for Nicole Kidman in Supporting Actress or anyone else.

The best shot could be in down the line categories such as Costume Design, Sound, or one of its songs (though the recently released “Wear Your Crown” with Streep rapping has drawn plenty of eye rolls). Bottom line: don’t discount The Prom‘s ability to make it into the dance in Picture or Actress, but it’ll need lots of goodwill to get there.

Cars 3 Box Office Prediction

Pixar has its entry in the summer box office derby as Cars 3 opens next weekend. The threequel will have the honor of being the highest grossing animated sequel of the season for two weeks until Despicable Me 3 arrives.

Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Bonnie Hunt, Kerry Washington, and Nathan Fillion are among the actors lending their voices to the project. Reportedly, the late Paul Newman (who contributed to the original) will also be heard in flashback sequences.

The auto themed comedy franchise is not considered among the best that Pixar has produced. The 2006 original opened to $60 million with an eventual $244 million domestic haul. The 2011 sequel premiered a bit higher at $66 million, but earned considerably less overall at $191 million. That’s rather low compared to what Pixar has done in recent years. It’s also worth noting that Cars 2 is generally considered the worst of the 17 pictures the studio has produced thus far.

Bottom line: summer ’17 Pixar will be nothing compared to summer ’16 Pixar when Finding Dory opened to $135 million and ended up being the season’s highest grosser at $486 million. I’ll predict Cars 3 does manage to make just under what the first did 11 years ago and eventually struggles to make $191 million made by its predecessor.

Cars 3 opening weekend prediction: $57.8 million

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

 

This Day in Movie History: January 31

17 years ago Today in Movie History – January 31 – the rerelease of Star Wars twenty years after its initial run shocked box office watchers with an astonishing $35.9 million opening. Its domestic total would reach $138 million to bring its total to $460 million overall. The original trilogy would all have special editions in the spring of 1997 and would occupy the #1 slot for six out of seven weeks.

As for birthdays, Kerry Washington is 37 today. She may be best known as the lead on the hit ABC drama “Scandal” but she captured moviegoers attention in 2012 as Jamie Foxx’s love interest in Django Unchained. Other notables film appearances include another go-round with Foxx in Ray, Fantastic Four and its sequel, and The Last King of Scotland.

Justin Timberlake is 33 today. Obviously, he’s known most as the current King of Pop, but he’s has some successes with his film career. This includes playing Napster founder Sean Parker in The Social Network and comedies Bad Teacher and Friends with Benefits. Other notable pictures include Black Snake Moan, In Time, and Inside Llewyn Davis.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between Ms. Washington and Mr. Timberlake:

Kerry Washington was in Django Unchained with Jamie Foxx

Jamie Foxx was in Any Given Sunday with Cameron Diaz

Cameron Diaz was in Bad Teacher with Justin Timberlake

And that’s today – January 31 – in Movie History!

Tyler Perry Presents Peeples Box Office Prediction

Tyler Perry Presents Peeples is virtually assured the #3 spot at the box office this weekend when it debuts. The comedy should fall behind Iron Man 3 in its second weekend and The Great Gatsby, which is highly likely to open in the runner-up spot. I predicted a $41.3M opener for Gatsby.

Most of the flicks coming out of the Tyler Perry factory have been directed and/or written by the star. This time around, he’s only producing, but the studio was smart enough to put his name in the title, as with his other features. Perry’s non-Madea pictures tend to debut somewhere in the mid-teens to mid-twenties. Some recent examples:

The Family That Preys: $17.3 million opening

I Can Do Bad All By Myself: $23.4 million opening

Good Deeds: $15.5 million opening

Confessions of a Marriage Counselor: $21.6 million

Most of those titles did not debut in the heat of the summer movie season. That’s worth mentioning because Iron Man 3 will have a massive second frame and Gatsby should do well. There is competition out there.

The film basically looks like the Perry version of Meet the Parents. It’s got a good cast – Craig Robinson from “The Office”, “In Living Color” alum David Alan Grier, and Django Unchained co-star Kerry Washington. Simply having the name Tyler Perry attached to it likely means a respectable opening, though I don’t believe it reach above $20 million, even though that’s certainly possible. I’m thinking mid-to-high teens is a better possibility.

Tyler Perry Presents Peeples opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million

Tomorrow, I’ll make my predictions for the weekend’s top five, including my projection on how Iron Man 3‘s second weekend shapes up.