Jesus Revolution Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping the Jesus Revolution picks up plenty of followers when it debuts February 24th. The faith based drama set in the 1970s is directed by Jon Erwin and Brent McCorkle. Erwin, along with his brother Andrew, are responsible for making such genre successes as Woodlawn, I Can Only Imagine, and American Underdog. The cast includes Joel Courtney, Anna Grace Barlow, Jonathan Roumie, Kimberly Williams-Paisley, and Kelsey Grammer.

Christian themed pics are tricky to predict. They can often exceed expectations, but there’s a few that don’t match forecasts. The track history of the Erwins is more with the former. A gross exceeding $10 million is certainly doable. Underdog, focused on the rise of quarterback Kurt Warner, made $5.9 million in its premiere. However, it opened during Christmas weekend of 2021 when competition was fierce. I’ll say Revolution tops that figure while not hitting double digits.

Jesus Revolution opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Cocaine Bear prediction, click here:

Cocaine Bear Box Office Prediction

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising Movie Review

As has been discussed on the blog before, comedy is typically the genre that lends itself least to sequels. A major reason: most of ’em aren’t made with a planned follow-up in mind and therefore contrivances must be invented for them to exist.

This general rule applies to Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, which arrives two years after the success of the original. In 2014, the teaming of Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne vs. Zac Efron’s wild frat next door was a mostly effective raunchy pic with a couple of gags (air bags) that soared. $150 million domestic later, returning director Nicholas Stoller and his stars picked a pretty simple premise for another installment. Put a sorority there instead of a frat and watch similar hijinks ensue!

This happens when college freshman Shelby (Chloe Grace Moretz) goes to pledge at sororities and discovers they aren’t allowed to hold the wild bashes that their male counterparts are. So she enlists some other girls and Beastie Boys’s it beside the Radners (Rogen, Byrne) who are now expecting their second child. Kappa Nu is formed with an assist from Teddy (Efron), who’s still a bit salty from what went down when he inhabited the property. He’s also painfully still a man-child and the screenplay does get some decent mileage out of that (his changed friendship with frat bro Dave Franco is an example).

As with the first Neighbors installment, games of one upmanship (or upgirlship I guess) go down. The Radners are terrified because the house is in escrow as they’re set to become suburbanites and the new tenants might not appreciate the newly minted party pad. Shelby and her newfound sisters are determined to stay. And if that all sounds a lot like 2014, it is. Same story, different gender.

Rising gets a some solid chuckles out of exploiting the physique of both Mr. Efron and Mr. Rogen. The best moments come from our lead couple acting as de facto parents to Teddy, yet they’re few and far between. This is due to the familiar tale of Kappa Nu and their schemes that involve some serious felonies that the frat guys would’ve balked at.

There have been plenty of comedic #2’s far worse than this. The trio of Rogen, Byrne, and Efron do give it their all and don’t just go through the motions. Still – this one feels mostly uninspired despite the talent involved and keeps that general comedy sequel rule intact.

**1/2 (out of four)

Storks Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros keeps the onslaught of animated titles being delivered to theaters going with Storks, opening next weekend. The comedic adventure comes from Nicholas Stoller and Doug Sweetland. Mr. Stroller is known for his live-action genre titles like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek, and the Neighbors franchise. The pic features the voices of Andy Samberg, Jennifer Aniston, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Kelsey Grammer, and Ty Burrell.

2016 has been a banner year for animated material with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets and critically acclaimed fare like Kubo and the Two Strings and Sausage Party. With all those titles mentioned, it’s a distinct possibility that an animated feature will really have to stand out now for family audiences to plunk down their dollars. Whether Storks fits that bill is a legit question.

September has been an occasionally fruitful month for the genre. Hotel Transylvania and its sequel are responsible for the month’s two largest openings at $42 and $48 million, respectively. The two Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs flicks both opened above $30 million. Warner Bros should be ecstatic if Storks manages those numbers.

I don’t believe this will quite reach that level and a debut in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.

Storks opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million

For my The Magnificent Seven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/14/the-magnificent-seven-box-office-prediction/

The Expendables 3 Box Office Prediction

Sylvester Stallone and his geriatric all-star group of action icons are back once again in The Expendables 3, out Friday. This franchise has been a consistent one this decade with the first and second installments being released on the same mid-August weekend in 2010 and 2012. However, there is a discouraging trend with the series. While the original took in $34 million opening weekend with an overall $103M domestic haul, the follow-up couldn’t keep pace. The Expendables 2 made $28 million out of the gate with a final $85M gross. Stallone hasn’t seen any of his other recent projects perform well and it’s easy to see where #3 could continue the downward performance of the franchise.

It must be said that Stallone’s ability to get genre stars on board is impressive. The Expendables 3 features Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mel Gibson, Harrison Ford, Jason Statham, Jet Li, Wesley Snipes, Antonio Banderas, Dolph Lundgren, Terry Crews, Randy Couture, and Kelsey Grammer. However, I don’t feel all that star power will translate to a very impressive debut. An opening on par with the last entry’s $28M seems unlikely, though I think the series has just enough juice (not a steroid reference) to get it past $20M.

The Expendables 3 opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million

For my Let’s Be Cops prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/lets-be-cops-box-office-prediction/

For my The Giver prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/10/the-giver-box-office-prediction/

Transformers: Age of Extinction Box Office Prediction

This Friday, Transformers: Age of Extinction will attempt to score the biggest opening weekend of 2014 and its chances are pretty darn solid. That title is currently held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which scored $95 million in its debut.

Director Michael Bay is back behind the camera just as he was for the first three installments. However, have an entirely new cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Kelsey Grammer. The trilogy’s star Shia LaBeouf is nowhere to be seen… and he’s probably off doing something really weird somewhere.

Comparing the Age of Extinction‘s predicted gross to the other franchise entrees is a tricky proposition. That’s because the other films opened on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with some on Fourth of July holiday weekends. The third flick Dark of the Moon took in a whopping $180 million over a six-day period. The second Revenge of the Fallen grossed $200.1 million over five days while the original made $155.4 million over five days in 2007.

The premiere of Extinction is unlikely to reach those levels since it will only be for its traditional weekend haul (plus Thursday night grosses). It’s also a legitimate question as to whether the franchise has lost a bit of steam. As I see it, the big question is if this clears $100 million out of the gate. I’m not totally confident that it will. The range of how this opens could be $120 million on the high end. Anything below $90 million would be considered low, especially considering the openings of the first three pictures.

Ultimately, I believe the dinobots and decepticons and autobots will claim the title of #1 opening so far in 2014, but not by much.

Transformers: Age of Extinction opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million

Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return Box Office Prediction

Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return is an animated feature from the upstart Summertime Entertainment opening Friday. It comes with a healthy estimated budget of $70 million. It’s based on The Wonderful Wizard of Oz by L. Frank Baum and I think we’re all familiar with the massively successful pictures his works have spawned. It features the voices of “Glee” actress Lea Michele, as well as Kelsey Grammer, Dan Aykroyd, Jim Belushi, Martin Short, and Patrick Stewart.

This begs the question: is it just me or does this thing seem to be gaining very little traction with audiences? I would offer that the marketing push for Oz has been relatively minor, even though it’s scheduled to open on a hefty 2800+ screens. Perhaps the Oz affiliation alone could propel this to a double digit opening, but I don’t even think it gets to that minor distinction. There is a shortage of kiddie related pics now that Rio 2 has made the bulk of its gross (though The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should still be doing quite well in weekend #2).

I’m predicting that family audiences will mostly ignore Dorothy’s Return and decide that when it comes to spending money on this, there’s no place like staying home.

Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million