Oscar Predictions: Ordinary Angels

Hilary Swank is a double Oscar winner in Best Actress. She went 2 for 2 with 1999’s Boys Don’t Cry and 2004’s Million Dollar Baby. Fun fact: she’s probably responsible for Annette Bening not having an Academy Award as she was likely runner-up for American Beauty in ’99 and Being Julia five years later.

Bening might be up this year for Nyad, but Swank has a rare big screen starring role this weekend in Ordinary Angels. The faith-based and fact-based drama is from filmmaker Jon Gunn with a screenplay by Kelly Fremon Craig and Meg Tilly. Alan Ritchson, Nancy Travis, and Tamala Jones costar.

Reviews are actually solid with 80% on RT and several critics praising Swank’s work. That said, this is not a genre where the Academy often takes notice. While this appears to be a crowdpleaser with a 100% audience score on the Tomato site, don’t expect this to make the cut in Actress or other categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction

Two-time Academy Award winner Hilary Swank headlines the inspiration true-life drama Ordinary Angels as Lionsgate hopes this baby makes several million dollars out of the gate. Jon Gunn, the filmmaker behind Do You Believe? and The Case for Christ, directs with a supporting cast including Alan Ritchson, Nancy Travis, and Tamala Jones. There are some noteworthy behind the scenes players involved with Kelly Fremon Craig (writer/director of The Edge of Seventeen and Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret) sharing script duties with actress Meg Tilly.

Angels was originally slated to touch down in theaters on October 13th last year until it (wisely) moved to make way for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. These faith-based offerings can manage to outperform expectations. I wouldn’t be shocked if an opening weekend in the $10 million range materialized, but my forecast puts it a bit under.

Ordinary Angels opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training prediction, click here:

For my Drive-Away Dolls prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret arrives in theaters on April 28th over 50 years after the novel by Judy Blume inspired generations of readers. Judging from the reviews, it sounds like it’s worth the wait (and Blume herself has heaped praise on it). The coming-of-age dramedy is directed and adapted by Kelly Fremon Craig, whose 2016 The Edge of Seventeen (something that was certainly inspired by Margaret) was a critical darling. Abby Ryder Fortson is in the title role with Rachel McAdams and Benny Safdie as her parents and Kathy Bates as Grandma.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is a sterling 95%. Some of the strongest ink is going to McAdams. With an aggressive campaign, perhaps Lionsgate could put her on the radar for her second Supporting Actress nomination after 2015’s Spotlight. Or the spotlight could fall to Margaret herself. I doubt if the Academy will bite, but Golden Globe voters nominated Hailee Steinfeld in Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy for Seventeen. I could see that happening with Fortson. A best case scenario would be attention for Adapted Screenplay, but let’s see how competitive that race becomes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping audiences will be there for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret when it opens April 28th. The coming-of-age dramedy is based on the well-known 1970 novel from Judy Blume. Kelly Fremon Craig, who wrote and directed 2016’s acclaimed The Edge of Seventeen, is behind the camera. Abby Ryder Fortson stars in the title role with Jennifer Garner, Benny Safdie, and Kathy Bates in the supporting cast.

Despite the popularity of its source material, author Blume held onto the film rights for over half a century. Margaret will attempt to bring in a wide female audiences whose familiarity with the book spans generations. Some early prognoses have this potentially reaching $20 million. I’ll say low to mid teens is where this lands.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret opening weekend prediction: $15.3 million

For my Big George Foreman prediction, click here:

The Edge of Seventeen Movie Review

We’ve seen plenty of coming of age teen dramedies since the 1980s and beyond. It’s the kind of thing John Hughes cornered a market on three decades ago. I have a feeling Kelly Fremon Craig’s The Edge of Seventeen would’ve made him smile. It presents teens who are smart and complicated. High schoolers who are capable of being wholly self-absorbed yet most of it stems from insecurity. Our central character Nadine (Hailee Steinfeld) means well most of the time, at least in her own mind. And she’s the prime example of the traits listed above. With a truly impressive performance from an actress who broke out at age 14 in the Coens True Grit, both Steinfeld and Craig’s screenplay make Nadine feel authentic. You root for her even when you’re exasperated by her. Many a parent with teens could surely relate.

Nadine is an outsider – a high school junior with only one real friend Krista (Haley Lu Richardson). She’s always been a bit of a loner and the loss of her beloved father four years ago complicated it. Her overwhelmed Mom (Kyra Sedgwick) has a tough time figuring how to deal with her, while her super popular older brother Darian (Blake Jenner) seems to have life all figured out. When Darian and Krista begin dating, Nadine’s abandonment issues only worsen.

Throughout the picture, she turns to various people to try and alleviate her social awkwardness. This includes slightly nerdy student Erwin (Hayden Szeto), who’s crushing on her and too cool for school student Nick (Alexander Calvert), who she’s crushing on. Both relationships present with their own versions of humorous and recognizable awkwardness. Nadine also confides in her teacher Mr. Bruner (Woody Harrelson). He’s nowhere near the uncaring educator you’d witness in other genre pics nor the always wiser than thou teach you may have seen before. He clearly cares about Nadine, but his advice and comebacks are often genuinely surprising. There’s a subtly played moment where his pupil realizes her teacher has a life outside of the classroom and it feels just right. Most pleasingly, the role serves as another reminder that Harrelson has morphed into one of the most interesting character actors working today. He’s a pleasure to watch.

So is Steinfeld and the rest of the cast. The Edge of Seventeen might be more satisfying to viewers who have surpassed the age in the title by a few years. There may be more satisfaction for adults who can pick out their own remembrances of what it was like to be that age, when the highs couldn’t have seemed higher and the lows were literally the end of the world. Kelly Fremon Craig has crafted a perceptive, occasionally laugh out loud funny, and genuinely emotional snapshot of someone in that time period.

***1/2 (out of four)

The Edge of Seventeen Box Office Prediction

Hailee Steinfeld first broke onto the film scene as a young teen in the Coen Brothers hit Western remake True Grit. The result? An Oscar nomination for Supporting Actress. Since then, she’s made a few screen appearances and also become a platinum selling musician.

Next weekend, she’s said to have yet another breakout role headlining The Edge of Seventeen, a coming of age comedic drama. The pic debuted to highly positive reviews at the Toronto Film Festival and is at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Kelly Fremon Craig directs and costars include Haley Lu Richardson, Blake Jenner, Woody Harrelson, and Kyra Sedgwick.

How it will fare at the multiplexes? Perhaps solid buzz could keep it going well in subsequent weekends, but I’m not anticipating anything above a low teens opening as the higher bar. For one thing, this is going for a teen audience who may well be preoccupied with Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them.

I’ll predict Seventeen hits low double digits for its start.

The Edge of Seventeen opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million

For my Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-box-office-prediction/

For my Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

For my Bleed for This prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Edge of Seventeen

As the Toronto Film Festival has drawn to its conclusion, we have another picture to discuss and it’s a teen comedy drawing great reviews. The Edge of Seventeen stars Hailee Steinfeld as a high school junior whose brother starts dating her best friend. It costars Haley Lu Richardson, Blake Jenner, Woody Harrelson, and Kyra Sedgwick. Kelly Fremon Craig writes and directs and Seventeen is scheduled for a November 18th domestic release.

Six years ago, young Steinfeld was cast in the plum role of Mattie Ross in the Coen Brothers blockbuster True Grit. For it, she nabbed a Best Supporting Actress nod. Critics have been raving about her work here. Yet as has been discussed on this blog in recent days, 2016’s Actress race looks highly competitive and there may not be enough room for her this time around. Perhaps Craig could find herself in the mix for Original Screenplay if the film hits with audiences and the critical love continues.

Look for Oscar Watch posts as more hopefuls screen…

http://youtu.be/EB6Gecy6IP8