Good Fortune is hoping for just that when the Lionsgate release opens October 17th. The supernatural comedy marks the directorial debut of Aziz Ansasi. He also wrote the script and costars with Seth Rogen, Keke Palmer, Sandra Oh and Keanu Reeves as a guardian angel.
The film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly satisfied reviews (83% Rotten Tomatoes, 69 Metacritic). Humorous features have seen decreasing wide theatrical releases in recent years. In August, The Naked Gun managed mid teens out of the gate with name brand recognition.
I doubt Fortune is that fortunate. Low teens could be the ceiling and $10M+ is certainly possible, but I’m going lower as this genre struggles at multiplexes.
Good Fortune opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
Angelic comedy Good Fortune will hope for just that when it opens on October 17th. Marking the directorial debut of comedian Aziz Ansari, it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly satisfied reaction. The body swap tale stars Seth Rogen and Ansari with Keanu Reeves as a “budget guardian angel”. The supporting cast includes Keke Palmer and Sandra Oh.
Rotten Tomatoes is at 81% with 66 on Metacritic. Plenty of critics particularly dig the Reeves casting. While the Academy won’t consider this, could Fortune make a play in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes? I don’t think the reviews are quite there for it to have a legit shot unless divine intervention is involved. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to lap all competitors this weekend as the critically hailed horror pic Companion also opens. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be found here:
A spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, I have Dog performing right in range with its predecessor in the mid 20s. That should easily give it top dog status.
As for Companion, I’m thinking it’ll be runner-up. This latest scary movie starring Sophie Thatcher may perform similarly in the low double digits like her previous genre title Heretic did last November.
Flight Risk landed in 1st place this past frame in line with my expectations (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade and poor reviews, I have it plummeting over 50% in its sophomore outing. That could mean a fall from 1st to 5th with holdovers Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days having significantly smaller declines.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. Companion
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
3. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6 million
5. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (January 24-26)
Mel Gibson’s action thriller Flight Risk with a balding Mark Wahlberg led all pics with $11.5 million, in line with my $11.3 million call. It’s a fairly ho-hum start during these January doldrums and, as mentioned, I look for it to lose altitude quickly.
Mufasa: The Lion King was second with $8.5 million, on target with my $8.7 million prediction. The Disney property bumped its tally to $220 million after six weeks.
One of Them Days with Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of complimentary buzz to a 32% dip in weekend #2. It took in $8 million to rise above my $6.8 million projection. The ten-day take is $25 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.1 million) for a six-week showing of $225 million.
While I correctly called the 1-4 order, I whiffed on the rest of my top 6. Moana 2 was fifth with $4.1 million for $449 million after nine weeks.
Steven Soderbergh’s experimental haunted house tale Presence debuted in sixth with $3.3 million. I did not do a predictions post for it. Profitability should happen given its reported $2 million price tag.
Wolf Man flamed out in its second weekend in seventh with a 70% drop and $3.2 million. I was more generous at $4.6 million and it has grossed a mere $17 million.
Finally, Brave the Dark, the latest drama from Angel Studios, was 12th with a lowly $2.8 million. Once again, I was kinder with a $5.1 million estimate.
Mark Wahlberg looks to guide Flight Risk to #1 this weekend and Angel Studios premieres their latest drama Brave the Dark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The doldrums of January should continue at multiplexes with Flight Risk seeking action fans to get onboard. Directed by his Daddy’s Home 2 and Father Stu costar Mel Gibson, I have Wahlberg’s latest in the low double digits. That should be enough for the top spot.
After returning to first place by a nose, Mufasa: The Lion King should slip to second with One of Them Days in third after a better than anticipated runner-up showing (more on that below).
The fourth slot could be close between Brave the Dark and Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 6th frame. Wolf Man had a disappointing rollout and could ease to sixth with a decline in the mid 50s or so.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 6:
1. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Brave the Dark
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (January 17-19)
In the weakest MLK weekend in nearly a quarter century, Mufasa: The Lion King managed to climb back into the winners circle with $12 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s ahead of my $9.5 million call and it gives the Disney property $206 million after five weeks.
Buddy comedy One of Them Days starring Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of solid reviews to second place and $11.8 million, easily overshadowing my $7.8 million projection. This is the first 2025 title to exceed expectations.
The same cannot be said for Wolf Man. Blumhouse’s horror reboot received plenty of subpar critical notices and audiences turned away. While I had it pegged for 1st at $16.6 million, it was third with only $10.8 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $8.6 million compared to my $6.6 million estimate for a five-week total of $216 million.
Last weekend’s champ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera fell to fifth with $6.5 million. The 56% drop was steeper than I figured as I had it at $8.2 million. The ten-day take is $26 million.
I did not anticipate doing an Oscar Predictions post on One of Them Days, a buddy flick out today starring Keke Palmer and singer SZA. Lawrence Lamont directs the L.A. set pic that some critics are saying is a welcome throwback to smaller budget African-American centered comedies of the 1990s. Vanessa Bell Calloway, Keyla Monterroso Meija, Maude Apatow and Katt Williams costar.
And truth be told, Days is highly unlikely to contend anywhere for the 98th Academy Awards as we await nominations for the 97th. Nevertheless it is worth noting that this stands at an unanticipated 96% on Rotten Tomatoes with 73 on Metacritic.
As I point out occasionally, Oscar won’t bite. Yet I wouldn’t completely discount Golden Globe voters looking at Palmer for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy. The chances are slim, but she could get some social media ink for inclusion months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blumhouse’s horror remake Wolf Man looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend while Keke Palmer and SZA headline the buddy comedy One of Them Days. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Sporting a meager budget of reportedly $7 million, Wolf Man from The Invisible Man director Leigh Whannell could see a gross close to $20 million (or at least low to mid teens in the worst case scenario). That should mean an easy perch at #1 under either scenario.
As for One of Them Days, it has a shot of exceeding my expectations. However, my mid to single digits take should mean a fourth or fifth place showing depending on the drops of holdovers.
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera was able to snag the top spot this past weekend (more on that below). It may slide to third with a mid 40s decline with Mufasa: The Lion King staying put in second if it drops in the low to mid 30s.
Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:
1. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
3. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (January 10-12)
Gerard Butler scored bragging rights as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera managed first position with $15 million. That’s ahead of my $13.3 million forecast and right in line with the $15.2 million that its 2018 predecessor achieved for its start. This is a much needed boost for Lionsgate after a 2024 littered with bombs including Borderlands, The Crow, and Megalopolis.
Mufasa: The Lion King, after two weeks atop the box office mountain, was runner-up with $14.2 million. That’s on pace with my $14.4 million call as the Disney property’s fortunes rose to $189 million after four weeks.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was third with $11.3 million, on target with my $10.9 million prediction. The Sega threequel has amassed $204 million during its four-week run.
Nosferatu was fourth with $6.8 million, falling below my $8.6 million estimate. This horror remake stands at $81 million after three weeks.
Finally, Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $6.5 million (I said $6.3 million). The Mouse House sequel has grossed $434 million in seven weeks.
Sony Pictures is looking for One of Them Days to have several good days at the box office come January 17th. The buddy comedy stars Keke Palmer and singer SZA in her cinematic debut. Lawrence Lamont directs with a supporting cast including Vanessa Bell Calloway, Keyla Monterroso Meija, Maude Apatow, and Katt Williams.
The studio is looking for a significant African-American and female turnout, but I’m not sure the leads are enough of a draw to get this into double digits. I’ll project that the Friday to Sunday gross is in the mid to high single digits.
One of Them Days opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
It has been two weeks since I updated my Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired in those 14 days. We’ve had the National Board of Review and American Film Institute release their best of lists while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice voters unveiled their nominees.
There is a change in BP in the 10th spot. Triangle of Sadness is back in as I’ve taken out The Whale. The bad news for that pic continues as I’ve demoted Brendan Fraser from 1st to 3rd in Actor. Make no mistake – I do believe he can still win. However, the last Best Actor victor whose movie wasn’t nominated was 13 years ago with Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart. That stat puts Austin Butler and Colin Farrell in the 1-2 spots as I do have their flicks in BP.
The various precursors have caused major movement in the wildly unpredictable Supporting Actress field. Claire Foy (Women Talking) missed the Globes and Critics Choice. She drops from 1st to 4th while Kerry Condon (who made both precursors) is now in 1st. Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are in the quintet with Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Hong Chau (The Whale again) falling out.
While Director and Actress have the same five, there’s a shift in Supporting Actor as Judd Hirsch joins his Fabelmans costar Paul Dano with Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw on the outside looking in.
I would also note that RRR has gone from unranked status to 11th (knocking right on the door for BP).
We also have new #1’s in Documentary, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. Scroll below to track all the movement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tár (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Elvis (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Whale (PR: 8) (-5)
14. She Said (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Decision to Leave
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Nina Hoss, Tár
Keke Palmer, Nope
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. She Said (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 6) (+2)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Strange World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 4) (-3)
8. EO (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alcarras
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Navalany (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (+2)
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Descendant (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sr. (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Retrograde (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 1) (-2)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Living (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elvis (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. X (PR: -1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Batman (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Living
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. RRR (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies hitting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Elvis
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
The Batman, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, RRR
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.
While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.
That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)
10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
She Said
White Noise
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Stand Up” from Till
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King
The New York Film Critics Circle have made their selections for the year’s best and that kicks off a flurry of regional awards coming our way in the days and weeks ahead. This particular critics group (as is the case with most) isn’t much of a barometer on who and what will win. It is, however, a decent glimpse of who and what could contend.
Todd Field’s Tár and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin each earned two honors. The former was named Best Film with Cate Blanchett taking the Actress award. Eight of the last 10 NYFCC victors in Film went on to receive a BP Oscar nomination. Yet none of those movies won the big prize from the Academy. The last one that did was 2011’s The Artist. And that make sense here. Tár appears highly likely to make the BP cut though it isn’t much of a threat to take the gold. Five of the past 10 Actress recipients were nominated with only one winner. Who was that winner? Cate Blanchett for 2013’s Blue Jasmine. She could certainly do so again. This won’t be the only critics branch to name her.
Colin Farrell was Best Actor for Banshees and After Yang. Like Actress, half of the previous ten New York honorees made the Oscar quintet with two winners – Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea). Farrell appears to be locked in a tight three-way race with Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Austin Butler (Elvis). Every precursor like this helps a little. Banshees also won Best Screenplay. That’s another Academy three-way battle in Original Screenplay with Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans.
The supporting fields are a bit more predictive as far as Academy matches. Eight of 10 Supporting Actor NYFCC takers were at the Oscars. That includes four winners in Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight). We could see another match with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Expect to hear his name a lot.
Supporting Actress, on the contrary, was more of a surprise. Keke Palmer’s work in Nope topped all rivals in a wide open field that’s hard to peg for Oscar prognosticating. 7 of 10 winners here made the big dance including the victorious Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), and Laura Dern (Marriage Story). I’ve yet to have Palmer in my top ten. I’m starting to wonder if she could get in the mix for her memorable performance in the sci-fi horror tale. I should note that NYFCC named Lupita Nyong’o Best Actress for Peele’s Us from 2019 and she came up short with Oscar voters.
The rest of the categories all showcased viable contenders in their respective competitions. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On picked up Animated Feature and I expect it to get love from the critics. Same with Non-Fiction Film and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (I have it ranked first in Oscar’s Documentary Feature). Poland’s EO was a slightly unexpected choice in Foreign Film over Decision to Leave (which I have pegged as the soft frontrunner for the Academy). Finally, Top Gun: Maverick aced Cinematography and it should get an Oscar nod there for the thrilling aerial camerawork.
Keep coming to the blog for all your awards news and I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up this Sunday!
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