As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.
At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.
The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.
That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.
Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.
I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.
In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.
Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ne Zha 2
Animal Farm
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tale of Silyan
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
7 Nominations
Frankenstein
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Disney has owned the Thanksgiving holiday in recent years and that looks to continue when Zootopia 2 arrives November 26th. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing the sequel to the 2016 blockbuster that took home Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. Returning voices include Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba, and Shakira. New faces behind the mics are Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, Roman Reigns, and CM Punk.
Last year, the Mouse House smashed the Thanksgiving box office record with Moana 2. That follow-up took in $139 million from Friday to Sunday with $225 million when counting Wednesday and Turkey Day. The previous highest three-day opening was the original Moana (also from 2016) at $56 million.
Zootopia 2 should fall between the Moana‘s in the record books. In a best case scenario, it could threaten part 2. In March 2016, the original exceeded expectations with a $75 million start on its way to $341 million overall domestically. This is widely anticipated to build on that with room to spare.
I’ll project a Friday to Sunday gross between $110 to $115 million and a five-day topping $180 million.
Zootopia 2 opening weekend prediction: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
What does an astronomical $320 million budget get you in Hollywood these days? Apparently a mid-March Netflix release and a heap of critical derision. Meet The Electric State, a comedic sci-fi adventure hitting the streamer March 14th from Anthony and Joe Russo of Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame fame. The human cast for the ultra expensive flick includes Millie Bobby Brown, Chris Pratt, Ke Huy Quan, Stanley Tucci, Woody Norman, Giancarlo Esposito, and Jason Alexander. An equally impressive voice cast includes Woody Harrelson, Anthony Mackie, Brian Cox, Jenny Slate, Alan Tudyk, Hank Azaria, Colman Domingo, and Rob Gronkowski.
It is worth noting that the Russo’s follow-ups to the Avengers juggernauts are the unimpressively reviewed Cherry and The Gray Man. Yet this appears to be receiving the worst of it with 23% on Rotten Tomatoes and 30 on Metacritic. The term “wasted potential” pops up more than once. Only the visual effects would be a possibility for awards attention and the Electric buzz might sink that. This has much more viability at the Razzies than with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.
Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.
It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.
And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)
2. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)
3. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
4. Heart Eyes
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (February 7-9)
Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.
Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.
Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.
Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.
Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.
Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.
Slasher flick Heart Eyes and action comedy Love Hurts hope to achieve audience affection this weekend while competing with holdovers and a little football game on Sunday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Sony’s Heart Eyes looks to fright fest fans and teens and, in this genre, there’s always the possibility of exceeding expectations. It might get to the teens, but I have it in the lower double digits for a runner-up showing.
Recent supporting category Oscar winners Ke Huy Quan and Ariana DeBose (and Super Bowl victor Marshawn Lynch) tackle Love Hurts. Universal would heart a start in double digits and especially teens though I suspect it could struggle to get there. My estimate puts it in third.
As for holdovers, DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man opened impressively (more on that below) and it should be top dog once again. The sophomore outing drop could be in the mid to high 40s.
Companion, despite a solid (at least for horror) B+ Cinemascore grade, may dip in the mid to high 40s as well with Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days in a close call for fifth.
Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:
1. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
2. Heart Eyes
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
3. Love Hurts
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
4. Companion
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)
Dog Man lapped all competitors with room to spare as the animated tale (tail?) based on Dav Pilkey’s works scored $36 million, well ahead of my $25.4 million projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to eye nine digits stateside.
Companion‘s second place showing was in line with expectations at $9.3 million, a tad under my $10.6 million call. The well-reviewed mix of horror, sci-fi, and satire only had a reported $15 million price tag so this is a decent result.
Mufasa: The Lion King was third with $6.3 million (I said $6.5 million), bringing the Disney property’s seven-week haul to $229 million.
Buddy comedy One of Them Days was fourth, holding up well in weekend #3 with $5.8 million (on target with my $6 million prediction). The total is $34 million,
Finally, as estimated, Flight Risk with Mark Wahlberg lost altitude in its second go-round. Plummeting from first to fifth, it made $5.4 million (a 53% ease). That’s close to my $5.7 million take as its ten-day earnings are $20 million.
Ke Huy Quan, Oscar winner nearly two years ago for Everything Everywhere All at Once, headlines Love Hurts on February 7th. From director Jonathan Eusebio, the action comedy costars a fellow Oscar recipient in West Side Story‘s Ariana DeBose and a Super Bowl champion via Marshawn Lynch. The supporting cast also features Daniel Wu, Mustafa Shakir, Lio Tipton, and Quan’s fellow Goonie for life Sean Astin.
It is not, to my knowledge, an exploration of the history of “Love Hurts”, a song made famous by the Everly Brothers and covered by the likes of Roy Orbison, Nazareth, and Cher. That would probably be an interesting movie (just saying).
Speaking of the Super Bowl, that game is being played on Sunday the 9th and could certainly eat into Love’s potential. I’ll estimates this falls under $10 million.
Love Hurts opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
Tonight’s Gotham Awards were not expected to provide any major clues as to how the awards season will play out. That might hold true, but I do think the winner of Best Feature could be a preview for one picture in particular.
Adam Schimberg’s A Different Man was the surprise winner in the big race over the heavily favored Anora from Sean Baker. For those that didn’t believe Anora would away with the top prize from the New York group that honors indie movies, the runner-up pick would’ve been RaMell Ross’s Nickel Boys. Both of them are anticipated to nab BP nods (especially Anora). And while that still is the case, it does make me question all the prognosticators who have Anora ranked #1 (a lot do). I haven’t yet and have always slotted it 2nd or 3rd behind (lately) The Brutalist or Conclave. By the way, Challengers and Babygirl were the other contenders.
So… should we be thinking about A Different Man in Best Picture? I wouldn’t make that leap. However, it’s worth noting that four of the past five Gotham Feature victors managed a BP slot: 2019’s Marriage Story, 2020’s Nomadland (which won), 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once (another winner), and last year’s Past Lives. The exception is The Lost Daughter from 2021. Don’t expect Different to all of a sudden pop into my top 10 in BP, but you might see it between 11-15 in other possibilities when I update.
The no-show in victories for Anora continued in Director as RaMell Ross was honored for Nickel Boys. Strangely enough, this was the first year where the Gothams bestowed an individual behind the camera prize so comparisons cannot be made. That said, Ross is certainly a possibility at the Oscars though I currently don’t have him in my quintet.
The Gothams do not separate gender in their lead and supporting races as of 2021. Voters clearly were taken with Sing Sing as Colman Domingo was Outstanding Lead Performer and Clarence Maclin was Outstanding Supporting Performer.
For Domingo, he beat out his anticipated competitor in Best Actor Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) as well as plenty of Actress possibilities like Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Demi Moore (The Substance), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). Since 2021, only Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) received an Oscar nod after winning this category.
Maclin was selected over other potential Supporting Actor rivals including Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Yura Borisov (Anora), and A Different Man‘s Adam Pearson. Supporting Actress hopefuls Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) were also in the mix. The winners of supporting here in 2021 (Troy Kotsur for CODA) and 2022 (Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere) went onto take the Supporting Actor Oscar. Last year’s recipient Charles Melton (May December) didn’t make the Academy’s cut. Both Domingo and Maclin are expected to receive Oscar nominations.
Speaking of His Three Daughters, it won Screenplay. Yet you can’t read much into that because none of the other nominees (Between the Temples, Evil Does Not Exist, Femme, Janet Planet) are expected to contend at the Academy Awards.
The precursors for Oscars are begin to roll out and keep an eye on this blog for all the coverage!
While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.
The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.
In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.
The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.
Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
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