It’s been a 2025 of unimpressive box office numbers for Sydney Sweeney features including Eden and Americana. That may end in December with The Housemaid, but I look for it to continue in November with Christy. The true life sports biopic casts Sweeney as boxer Christy Martin with David Michôd directing. The supporting cast includes Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, Katy O’Brian, and Ethan Embry.
Christy premiered in early September at the Toronto Film Festival hoping to kick off an Oscar campaign for its star. While her performance is being appreciated, reviews themselves were so-so with 69% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56 Metacritic. That word-of-mouth hasn’t completely KO’ed Sweeney’s awards chances, but did significantly hamper it.
I doubt audiences turn up though it should top the $1 million and $500,000 that Eden and Americana respectively made in their first weekends of semi-wide release.
Most recently in headlines for an American Eagle jeans ad controversy, the narrative should be shifting for Sydney Sweeney after Christy‘s premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. The true life boxing biopic casts the 27-year-old as ring champion Christy Martin. Animal Kingdom maker David Michôd directs with a supporting cast including Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, Katy O’Brian, and Ethan Embry.
Ahead of its planned November 7th theatrical release, early reviews are certainly mixed with 65 on Metacritic and 68% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, praise for Sweeney is high. In a year where she’s appeared in a string of underwhelming features (Echo Valley, Americana, Eden), critics are lauding her work and the makeup artists who render her appearance far different than those denim advertisements. She is now in the mix for Best Actress as is the Makeup and Hairstyling department. It should be noted, however, that Actress appears to be stocked with contenders in films with better critical reaction. Playing her trainer turned abusive husband, ink for Foster is impressive. A Supporting Actor bid could materialize though the attention could be trained on the lead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In their latest and supposedly final entry in the franchise, Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie choose to extend their mission. Not only does Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning sport the longest running time of the eight features (170 minutes), there’s extra characters to keep up with. You’ll need to extend your knowledge of previous installments for certain plot points and surprise cameos to properly land.
For all the extra padding, the main storyline is not complicated. Kicking off a couple of months after predecessor Dead Reckoning (this was originally Dead Reckoning – Part Two), Cruise’s IMF agent Ethan Hunt and team are still trying to stop The Entity. That’s an AI program whose algorithms equal world destruction, including scenarios where nations turn their nuclear arsenals against one another. Ethan’s Mission buddies include vets Luther (Ving Rhames) and Benji (Simon Pegg) as well as master thief Grace (Hayley Atwell), assassin turned asset Paris (Pom Klementieff), and Theo (Greg Tarzan Davis). That trio were all first seen in Dead Reckoning. Theo is the former partner of Jasper (Shea Whigham) from Dead Reckoning, who doesn’t trust Ethan and is by the side of Henry Czerny’s CIA Director Kittridge.
This whole review could be a rundown of the players in the potential global endgame. Angela Bassett from sixth feature Fallout was Deputy Director of the CIA in that one and is now POTUS. Familiar faces including Hannah Waddingham, Nick Offerman and Janet McTeer are part of her inner circle. I didn’t anticipate Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire being a part of this write-up, but it suffered from too many characters and so does this. That’s the first time I’d say that about a Mission movie. President Bassett and her band of character acting advisors could have been written out entirely and we’d have a leaner viewing to show for it. On the other hand, Tramell Tillman makes the most of his brief role as a submarine commander.
The main human villain continues to be Entity liaison Gabriel (Esai Morales). He shares a checkered past dating back thirty years with Ethan. That was an underdeveloped plot point in Dead Reckoning and it is here. Gabriel is not one of the memorable antagonists in this series.
These Mission‘s have leaned into the stunt work from #4 Ghost Protocol to present. Cruise and McQuarrie’s dedication to coming up with tremendous action set pieces revolves around an underwater task (like in 2015’s Rogue Nation) and another in the skies (reminiscent of Fallout but with older timey aircrafts). That’s not to say these sequences are derivative of what we’ve witnessed before. They’re both excellent with the aquatic part providing white knuckling claustrophobic thrills and the flight acrobatics offering its own delights.
So while Final Reckoning has its defects, the highlights continue to make it a franchise each is worthy of recommendation (and yes I mean Mission: Impossible2 too). Some callbacks to earlier pics are sharper than others. Without spoiling them, a minor character from a major scene in part 1 coming back is fun. Another character’s family tree connection to a former Ethan associate feels more like a stunt. Speaking of stunts, Cruise continues to wow us with his insistence on keeping it real in a storyline about artificiality attempting domination. This might be the finale. I’ll trust him if he changes his mind.
The 8th and seemingly last installment of the franchise that first hit multiplexes in 1996 drops May 23rd with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. Tom Cruise is back in super spy mode with Christopher McQuarrie directing his fourth Mission in a row. Costars include Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simong Pegg, Henry Czerny, Angela Bassett, Esai Morales, Pom Klementieff, Holt McCallany, Janet McTeer, Nick Offerman, Hannah Waddingham, Shea Whigham, Greg Tarzan Davis, Charles Parnell, and Katy O’Brian.
With a gargantuan budget of reportedly $400 million, Paramount is banking on the series going out with a financial bang. The grosses of the previous three installments have been rather consistent. 2015’s Rogue Nation debuted to $55 million with a $195 million eventual domestic take. Fallout in 2018 came in with $61 million for starters and $220 million overall. 2023’s Dead Reckoning arrived with high expectations as it was pegged to bask in the afterglow of Top Gun: Maverick‘s massive grosses the summer before. It didn’t quite turn out that way with a $54 million premiere and $172 million stateside.
Final Reckoning should see increased numbers due to the finale status. While critical reaction is mostly positive (83% on RT), many reviews are saying it among the weakest of the octet. My hunch is the three-day is higher than Dead Reckoning with a four-day holiday total in the high 70s to low 80s.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning opening weekend prediction: $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $80.8 million (Friday to Monday)
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is the eighth feature in the franchise that kicked off nearly 30 years ago and looks to be Tom Cruise’s closing adventure as IMF agent Ethan Hunt. Christopher McQuarrie returns to direct his fourth M:I entry in a row. The supporting cast includes Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Henry Czerny, Angela Bassett, Esai Morales, Pom Klementieff, Holt McCallany, Janet McTeer, Nick Offerman, Hannah Waddingham, Shea Whigham, Greg Tarzan Davis, Charles Parnell, and Katy O’Brian.
Opening over Memorial Day weekend, Reckoning has premiered at Cannes to mostly decent reviews with a note of caution. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88% with Metacritic at 71. The latter score is telling as the two previous installments were at 87 (2018’s Fallout) and 81 (2023’s Dead Reckoning). While praising the action sequences, there are critical complaints about its length and excessive reliance on exposition.
Any hope that Final Reckoning could achieve above-the-line awards nominations as the series bids farewell has fallen by the wayside. On the other hand, predecessor Dead Reckoning was the first Mission to generate Oscar nods and they were in Sound and Visual Effects. This could do the same with Sound as perhaps a better possibility. As you may have seen, the Academy Awards will implement a category honoring stunt ensembles. However, that won’t be until 2028. The Mission‘s probably would’ve flourished in those competitions but it wasn’t to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After posting the highest PTA of any 2024 title thus far, the erotic thriller Love Lies Bleeding expands wide this weekend. Marking Rose Glass’s sophomore directorial effort behind her acclaimed horror pic Saint Maud, Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian headline with Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco in support.
Bleeding first dropped at Sundance with general acclaim and it now holds a 91% RT score. In only five coastal venues, it took in $167k to nab that aforementioned best average.
Yet rolling out nationally could be a different story. Playing well in L.A. and NYC is not surprising. What’s in between could be a challenge. I’m assuming 1200 screens and if I get new information, that could alter this forecast. My projection likely puts it just outside this weekend’s top 5.
Love Lies Bleeding opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Rose Glass’s 2020 directorial debut Saint Maud was a critically hailed horror tale that originally screened at Toronto in 2019. Her sophomore effort Love Lies Bleeding (out March 8th) is a Sundance affair and it is one of the more eagerly awaited titles. The 80s set noirish thriller casts Kristen Stewart and Katy O’Brian as lovers embroiled in crime drama. Costars include Ed Harris, Jena Malone, Anna Baryshnikov, and Dave Franco.
From the reaction out of Utah, Bleeding should inspire strong reactions across the spectrum. The RT score is 90% (**Blogger’s Note: updated March 9th) with reviewers praising technical aspects (cinematography, score) and the cast (Stewart is particularly getting some shouts along with Harris). K-Stew has quite a presence at Sundance 2024. Her sci-fi two-hander Love Me with Steven Yeun is drawing mixed notices.
A24 apparently has a wild ride on its hands. If the studio play their cards right, supporting campaigns for Stewart (or maybe lead) and Harris are in order. On the other hand, this could be too out there for awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The MCU hopes for enlarged returns for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania when its debuts Friday. This is the third film in the franchise with Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly as the title heroes with Jonathan Majors making his debut as villainous Kang.
31 pictures into the cinematic universe that began with Iron Man (2008), Marvel’s multi-billion grossing series has seen its share of Oscar nominations. This is particularly true in Visual Effects where 13 features have been up and none have yet to win (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is unlikely to break that stat next month with competition from Avatar: The Way of Water).
None of the MCU’s previous nods belong to Quantumania predecessors Ant-Man (2015) or Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018). Based on reviews today, that stat should also stay intact. While Majors is picking up decent reviews, the pic is currently at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the second lowest score of any MCU title (Eternals is 47%). By comparison, the original Ant-Man hit 83% and the sequel had 87%. Bottom line: the chances for any awards attention is quite small. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hopes to score commanding grosses over the long President’s Day weekend starting February 17th. The 31st entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and third in this particular franchise features Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly reprising their roles as the title heroes. Michelle Pfeiffer and Michael Douglas are back with Jonathan Majors being introduced as villain Kang the Conqueror. Peyton Reed (who helmed the first two) is back directing. Other cast members include Kathryn Newton, David Dastmalchian, William Jackson Harper, Katy O’Brian, and Bill Murray.
The initial movie in the MCU’s Phase Five (with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels up next), Ant-Man looks to expand on the opening earnings of its predecessors. In the summer of 2015, Ant-Man made $57 million for its start (the second smallest MCU debut with The Incredible Hulk being lowest at $55 million). It ended up with $180 million domestically. Three years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp reached higher with $75 million and an eventual stateside tally of $216 million.
When it comes to the MCU, sequels typically outperform their originals (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was a recent exception to the rule). Thor: Love and Thunder, on the other hand, built upon its three predecessors. Quantumania should follow that trend.
As far as President’s Day weekend, it shouldn’t come close to approaching the record. That was five years ago with Black Panther when it scored $202 million from Friday to Sunday and $242 million when factoring Monday. The runner-up is 2016’s Deadpool with respective three and four-day takes of $132 million and $152 million. Third place belongs to 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey ($85 million Friday to Sunday, $93 million four-day).
This should manage a third place all-time haul. I’ll say the three-day falls a tad short of $100 million and just shy of $110 million with Monday’s inclusion.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opening weekend prediction: $96.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $109.1 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey prediction, click here:
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