Oscar Watch: Flag Day

It’s a family affair at the Cannes Film Festival with the premiere of Sean Penn’s latest directorial effort Flag Day. The drama features the two-time Best Actor winner as a con man with a complicated relationship with his daughter (played by his real life child Dylan Penn). Costars include Josh Brolin, Katheryn Winnick, Eddie Marsan, and Regina King.

This is the first time Mr. Penn has directed himself, but the early reviews are quick to point out the solid work of the other Penn. Critical reaction is mixed (it’s at 80% at the moment on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet some of the positive reviews are far from raves. It’s certainly an improvement over his last excursion behind the camera. 2016’s The Last Face also debuted in the French Riviera and ended up with an 8% Tomatoes meter. Audiences ignored it. That’s a far cry from 2007’s Into the Wild which probably came quite close to a Best Picture nod.

Flag Day may have some mainstream appeal (it opens August 13th domestically). However, the so-so reaction makes me question whether it can gain any traction with awards voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afUnBTHrtNo

The Marksman Box Office Prediction

Liam Neeson headlines the first new wide release of 2021 with The Marksman next weekend. The action pic casts Neeson as a former Marine (with a particular set of skills I assume) protecting a young boy from harm by a Mexican cartel. Robert Lorenz, a frequent collaborator of Clint Eastwood, directs. Costars include Katheryn Winnick, Juan Pablo Raba, and Teresa Ruiz.

It goes without saying, but the COVID-19 pandemic is still causing many theater closures and limited audiences for fresh product. This looks to continue into the foreseeable future. That has made the forecasting of pictures quite a dubious proposition and I took a break for the last couple of months.

I shall try again. This is not Neeson’s first foray into available multiplexes during COVID. In October, Honest Thief debuted to $3.6 million stateside. Considering the circumstances, that was pretty decent. I suspect The Marksman won’t quite hit that target, but it should come pretty darn close.

The Marksman opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million