The last time audiences were exposed to a film about Apple founder Steve Jobs, it was Ashton Kutcher playing him in 2013’s Jobs, which got mostly negative reviews and sputtered at the box office with only $16 million.
What a difference two years makes. This Friday comes Steve Jobs, with Oscar winning director Danny Boyle behind the camera and Oscar winning screenwriter Aaron Sorkin penning the script. Michael Fassbender plays the title role with Kate Winslet, Seth Rogen, and Jeff Daniels in the supporting cast. Since it premiered on the film festival circuit weeks ago, it’s been subject to fervent Oscar buzz. Chances are excellent that it will receive nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Winslet). Reviews have been strong.
All this positive buzz means Steve Jobs could gross the highest among the four other pictures it’s premiering against. The most obvious comparison for an opening weekend would be 2010’s The Social Network (also written by Sorkin), which debuted to over $22 million. Jobs could certainly reach that margin, but Social Network did have considerably less competition in its first weekend. I’ll predict this gets to high teens out of the gate and settles in for a nice run throughout the awards season.
Steve Jobs opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my The Last Witch Hunter prediction, click here:
As I’ve made my initial round of Oscar predictions over the past few days on the blog, it seemed somewhat safe to place Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs as a nominee for Best Picture and Director. Same goes for Michael Fassbender in the Actor race as he plays the late tech genius title character and Kate Winslet in Supporting Actress playing a member of Steve’s original MAC team.
Last night, the pic debuted at the Telluride Film Festival and critics are mostly loving what they’re seeing. Fassbender’s work has particularly been singled out and it seems highly unlikely that his name won’t be among the five in Best Actor. Winslet seems like a fairly safe bet as well. In Supporting Actor, Jeff Daniels seems more likely than Seth Rogen but I didn’t include either in my first round of predictions and stick by it (for now).
Several reviewers have noted Jobs as a companion piece to 2010’s The Social Network, David Fincher’s terrific tale of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Some have even said Jobs is better. That bodes extremely well for its chances at Picture and Director nods. It also seems virtually guaranteed that Aaron Sorkin will see his screenplay recognized in Adapted Screenplay. Steve Jobs is out October 9.
As the film festivals continue to roll out, look for several posts in the next few days outlining pictures likely to be in the mix and others that may not be.
This evening on the blog, we continue on with my very early and first predictions for the 2015 Oscars and we’ve come to Best Actress. This category, just like Supporting Actor and Actress, yielded two out of the five nominees when I made my predictions in 2014 with 1 other that was nominated being mentioned as an other possibility.
Astonishingly, the group of actresses that could be honored in 2015 encompasses seven out of the eight past winners of the award. 2007 winner Marion Cotillard is getting buzz for Macbeth, though it’s unclear whether she’ll be campaigned for here or in supporting. 2008 winner Kate Winslet has this fall’s The Dressmaker. 2009 winner Sandra Bullock headlines this October’s Our Brand is Crisis. 2011’s Meryl Streep had Ricki and the Flash last month. It’s always foolish to count her out, but the film’s low box office and mixed critical response could hinder her chances. 2012’s Jennifer Lawrence teams with David O. Russell again for Joy and her two previous films with him both landed her Oscar nods and a win for Silver Linings Playbook. 2013’s Cate Blanchett seems practically guaranteed a nod for Todd Haynes’s Carol, which premiered to raves at Cannes. 2014’s Julianne Moore has Freeheld out soon and it could make her a contender again.
Ultimately, however, my early predictions only have two of these women ending up with nominations. Alicia Vikander (who made a splash already this year with Ex Machina) is bound to get attention for Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl. Carey Mulligan stars in the womens voting rights drama Suffragette. Saoirse Ronan has already gotten raves on the festival circuit for this autumn’s immigration tale Brooklyn.
More possibilities abound. Veteran comedian/actress Lily Tomlin is being praised for the indie pic Grandma. Emily Blunt stars in the action drama Sicario this September. Angelina Jolie directs and stars in By the Sea. And we can’t count out Charlize Theron in this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road, even though it’s difficult for the action genre to give us acting nominees. It is worth noting that it happened with Sigourney Weaver nearly 30 years ago with Aliens.
This race looks to be one of the most competitive with a whole lot of huge stars going for the prize. And here’s my first take:
TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Sandra Bullock, Our Brand is Crisis
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Angelina Jolie, By the Sea
Julianne Moore, Freeheld
Meryl Streep, Ricki and the Flash
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Kate Winslet, The Dressmaker
For my previous posts with early predictions on Supporting Actor and Actress, click here:
It’s hard to believe but we are two thirds of the way through the calendar year and that means my first round of incredibly early Oscar predictions are making their way to the blog! Some caveats: it’s early. Real early. Truth be told, most of the main contenders in all the major categories will be rolling out in the fall. Many will be screening at the upcoming film fests like Toronto and New York, among others. As always, those festivals will help the picture become clearer over the next couple of months. Usually by Thanksgiving or early December, we’ve got a pretty good idea on how things are looking.
That said, I started my predictions for 2014 at the same time last year. In the Supporting Actress race, which I’m covering today, my impossibly early predictions yielded two of the five eventual nominees, Laura Dern for Wild and winner Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. It’s also worth noting that I predicted Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything, who was nominated in the Lead Actress category. Let’s talk about how things look right now:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Already we seem to have one performer who appears to be a shoo in for a nod: Rooney Mara for Todd Haynes’s 1950s set lesbian romance Carol, which premiered to raves at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this summer. It would be very shocking not to see Mara included, unless she’s campaigned for in the Actress race. That seems unlikely because the studio should be putting her costar Cate Blanchett in that race.
After that – much uncertainty. The Irish immigration drama Brooklyn hit the festival circuit to a rapturous response and that could bode well for Julie Walters. Director Quentin Tarantino knows how to get his actors nominated which could mean a nom for The Hateful Eight’s Jennifer Jason Leigh. Director David O. Russell is exceptional at seeing his performers gets nods and his December release Joy could see kudos for either Virginia Madsen or Diane Ladd (I’m leaving both off, for now).
Elizabeth Olsen has had some critically applauded roles and her performance as Hank Williams’ wife in the biopic I Saw the Light could garner attention. So could Kate Winslet in the upcoming Steve Jobs biopic.
The rest of the large field is filled with familiar names and some not. Remember the name Emayatzy Corinealdi for her work in the Don Cheadle/Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead. And we have previous winners like Blanchett, Jane Fonda, Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman and Rachel Weisz in the mix.
TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Elizabeth Olsen, I Saw the Light
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Cate Blanchett, Truth
Helena Bonham Carter, Suffragette
Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Miles Ahead
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Ann Dowd, Our Brand is Crisis
Jane Fonda, Youth
Nicole Kidman, Genius
Diane Ladd, Joy
Melanie Laurent, By the Sea
Laura Linney, Genius
Virginia Madsen, Joy
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Ellen Page, Freeheld
Julia Roberts, The Secret in their Eyes
Amy Ryan, Bridge of Spies
Meryl Streep, Suffragette
Rachel Weisz, Youth
And there’s part one of my early Oscar picks. Supporting Actor coming your way tomorrow…
Divergent exists because of The Hunger Games. While it may be based on its own series of popular YA novels (which were probably also “inspired” by the Games books), it’s the success of Jennifer Lawrence and company that made this possible. Imitation isn’t always so bad if you can find a somewhat interesting way to do it. Yet for the most part, despite a solid effort from the actors involved, Divergent often feels dull, way too familiar, and poorly paced.
In a dystopian future (of course), the city of Chicago now looks like District 12 and society is divided into five needlessly complicated factions where at age 16, citizens must choose where they wish to belong. There’s a faction for smart people and brave people and selfless people and so on. As we open, Beatrice (Shailene Woodley) is about to take her test to find out where she belongs, as is her brother Caleb (Ansel Elgort). You take the test to show where to go, but have free will to join another group. You can also be considered divergent, which means you don’t fit into any faction. The powers that be don’t like the free will thinking of that subgroup and kill them. Beatrice turns out to be just that and must hide it from everyone. She joins Dauntless (the brave law enforcement team) to the surprise of her parents (Tony Goldwyn and Ashley Judd), who are involved in the government ruling selfless faction. Brother Caleb joins the smart people group. Katniss volunteers in place of her little sis… oh, wrong movie.
If this all sounds more complicated than it needs to be, you would be correct. Soon enough, though, we’re in known territory with training sequences that take Tris (she shortens Beatrice) on a physical and mental journey. There’s also several shades of Inception in the proceedings, as part of the training involves dream like worlds and reading minds.
One of Tris’s Dauntless superiors is Four (Theo James) and he becomes her love interest who may have some easily predicted secrets of his own. There’s also Woodley’s Spectacular Now boyfriend Miles Teller as a weasel of a faction member. This is in addition to Shailene’s romantic counterpart Elgort as her brother. So while there’s no love triangle, our lead actress’s filmography makes things kinda awkward.
Kate Winslet leads the smart people faction, who have evil designs on taking over the government themselves. This puts Tris in the position of needing to protect her family while furiously protecting her true divergent nature.
The plus side of Divergent is really with Woodley. She’s a fine actress and she provides a better performance than the material. Same goes for James and most of the other personnel. That’s pretty much where the compliments stop. Some of the action is OK, but Divergent is just so routine. The look and feel borrow way too heavily from the aforementioned other franchise. They even cast Hunger Games costar Lenny’s daughter Zoe Kravitz as Tris’s BFF (best faction friend).
There is an admittedly nifty sequence where Tris simulates flying, albeit in a different way than her costar Winslet did in that movie about a boat and an iceberg. Divergent tries too hard to emulate The King of the YA Adapted Films and hits its own metaphorical ‘berg.
Opening a year after the hit Divergent, Insurgent is the second picture in a series of wildly popular YA novels penned by Veronica Roth. Stars Shailene Woodley, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Theo James, Kate Winslet and Zoe Kravitz are back in the mix, along with newcomers to the franchise Naomi Watts and Octavia Spencer.
While this series will likely never do Hunger Games level numbers, the original opened to an impressive $54 million last March on its way to a $150 million domestic haul. It doesn’t hurt that Woodley, Teller, and Elgort have kept themselves firmly in the public eye with recent commercial and critical hits such as The Fault in Our Stars and Whiplash.
The big question is whether or not Insurgent manages to open larger than its predecessor. My gut feeling is that it will, even though competition among female fans will be considerable with Cinderella’s second weekend. I believe this will manage to break the $60 million mark out of the gate.
Insurgent opening weekend prediction: $62.1 million
The 2008 Oscars will likely go down as the final year when only five films would compete in the granddaddy category of them all, Best Picture. The following year, the Academy would change it to ten and a couple years after that, developed a formula where anywhere from 5-10 movies could be recognized.
Many believe the reason is 2008’s exclusion of the critically lauded superhero sequel The Dark Knight, which had become the year’s highest grossing feature and was considered a major milestone in the burgeoning genre. Yet with the exception of its acclaimed Joker, Knight was shut out in the major categories.
Best Picture instead went to a true “little movie that could” – Danny Boyle’s out of nowhere critical and audience pleaser Slumdog Millionaire.
It would win out over David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon, Gus Van Sant’s Milk, and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader. It is a bit surprising that Oscar voters left out Knight and I would put forth that a decent argument could also be made for Jon Favreau’s Iron Man, which also stands as a creative high point in the comic book canon of movies.
In the Best Director category, it was a rare example of the five nominated auteurs matching the Picture nominees and Boyle would take home the gold over Fincher, Daldry, Van Sant, and Howard. Once again, Christopher Nolan would be on the outside looking in for his Knight direction.
Sean Penn would win his second Best Actor statue (2003’s Mystic River being the first) for playing gay activist Harvey Milk in Milk.
Other nominees: Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon, Brad Pitt in Benjamin Button, and Mickey Rourke in a career comeback role as The Wrestler.
Certainly Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne/Batman and Robert Downey, Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man could have been considered along with Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino, and the Slumdog Millionaire himself Dev Patel.
After a number of nominations with no victories, Kate Winslet would win Best Actress for The Reader, beating out Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married). Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), and the omnipresent Meryl Streep (Doubt).
It was a bit surprising to see Cate Blanchett’s work in Benjamin Button go unrecognized.
The Dark Knight would win its Oscar with the late Heath Ledger taking Supporting Actor as the Joker. Other nominees: Josh Brolin (Milk), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt), and Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road).
While it was refreshing to see the Academy nominate a comedic performance like Downey’s in Tropic Thunder, an equally good argument could have been made for Tom Cruise’s role in that picture. Same goes for James Franco’s exemplary work as a stoner in Pineapple Express.
Woody Allen has directed several actresses to Supporting Actress wins and he did it again with Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona.
She would be victorious over Amy Adams in Doubt, Viola Davis – also for Doubt, Taraji P. Henson in Benjamin Button, and Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler.
I might’ve found room for Frances McDormand in the Coen Brothers Burn After Reading.
And that’s all for now on the Oscar History front! I’ll be back with 2009 in the near future…
Rocky over Taxi Driver. Ordinary People over Raging Bull. Dances with Wolves over GoodFellas. These are all examples where, in hindsight, pictures directed by Martin Scorsese and the auteur himself probably should have received Oscars wins and not just nominations. In 2002, Scorsese’s Gangs of New York was seen as a Best Picture frontrunner until Chicago stole its thunder. The same held true two years later with The Aviator until Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby had a late surge and took the prize. By 2006, Scorsese was undoubtedly the most acclaimed director whose films had never won the gold statue. And neither had he.
This would finally come to an end with The Departed, his crime thriller that won Best Picture and this kicks off my 2006 Oscar History.
The other four nominees were Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Babel, Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Feris’s Little Miss Sunshine, and Stephen Frears’s The Queen. The voters got it right. The Departed was the Best Picture of the year.
As for other pictures I would’ve considered: Alfonso Cuaron’s terrific Children of Men, Guillermo del Toro’s visual feast Pan’s Labyrinth, the Ryan Gosling drama Half Nelson, and Todd Field’s Little Children. And for an outside the box pic – why not Casino Royale, which brought the Bond franchise back in grand fashion and ranks as my 2nd all-time 007 pic after From Russia with Love?
Scorsese, as mentioned before, would win Director over Inarritu, Eastwood, Frears, and Paul Greengrass for United 93. Once again – my list would’ve found room for Cuaron and del Toro.
In the Best Actor race, Forest Whitaker expectedly won for his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. Other nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond (many thought he’d get nominated instead for Departed), Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, Peter O’Toole for Venus (his final nomination), and Will Smith for The Pursuit of Happyness.
Once again, my ballot might’ve listed Daniel Craig for his electric take on James Bond. Others to consider: Clive Owen (Children of Men), Aaron Eckhart (Thank You for Smoking), or Matt Damon’s work in The Departed.
No surprise in the Best Actress race as Helen Mirren’s work as Queen Elizabeth II was honored in The Queen over Penelope Cruz (Volver), Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal), Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada), and Kate Winslet (Little Children).
That’s a strong Actress category, but I would’ve also had Natalie Portman’s fine performance in V for Vendetta included.
The only true surprise at the 2006 Oscars occurred in the Supporting Actor category where Eddie Murphy’s acclaimed work in Dreamgirls was expected to win. Instead the Academy honored Alan Arkin’s performance in Little Miss Sunshine. Other nominees: Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children), Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond), and Mark Wahlberg (The Departed).
Instead of Wahlberg, many believed it would be Jack Nicholson for Departed that received the nomination. I was cool with it – considering Nicholson had already won three times before and this marked Wahlberg’s first nod. Other names I would have possibly included: Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine), Stanley Tucci (The Devil Wears Prada), Michael Sheen (The Queen), and for his brilliant comedic work – John C. Reilly in Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby.
Jennifer Hudson had the distinction of being the first “American Idol” contestant turned Oscar winner with her lauded role in Dreamgirls – winning out over Babel actresses Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, young Abigail Breslin from Little Miss Sunshine, and Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal.
My list would have absolutely included Shareeka Epps with her fabulous work in Half Nelson and probably Vera Farmiga in The Departed.
And that’s your 2006 Oscar history! I’ll be back soon with 2007 where another beloved director (s) would take home their first Oscar gold.
More than a year after their financial juggernaut Twilight franchise wrapped up, Summit Entertainment moves on with their next series based on wildly popular YA novels with Divergent, opening Friday. Based on Veronica Roth’s books, the futuristic sci-fi actioner comes with a healthy $80 million budget and high expectations from the studio. Two sequels have already been greenlit with Insurgent debuting a year from now.
Headlined by Shailene Woodley and Theo James, Divergent also features a supporting cast that includes Shailene’s Spectacular Now costar Miles Teller and Oscar winner Kate Winslet. The box office prospects for Divergent are a bit murky. It’s highly unlikely to reach Hunger Games types of numbers. It also hopes to avoid the disappointing performances of other YA movies like The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones or Beautiful Creatures from last year.
Recent speculation has focused on Divergent opening in range with the first Twilight, which earned $69.6 million in its premiere. This seems like reasonable territory to me. The chances of Divergent getting past $75M out of the gate are within reach. However, I’ll predict it falls just under what Bella, Edward, and company achieved in their debut.
Divergent opening weekend prediction: $68.4 million
For my Muppets Most Wanted prediction, click here:
After it played the film festival circuit last fall it became clear Jason Reitman’s Labor Day was not going to be the awards contender the studio hoped for. Starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin, the pic generated mostly positive but unspectacular reviews. It was given a late qualifying limited run for Oscar consideration and ignored.
Director Reitman is mostly known for comedic dramas like Juno, Up in the Air, and Young Adult. This one is on the more serious side and Paramount is hoping the romantic plot between its stars will bring females out. Labor Day may follow in the direction of another Winslet drama that the Academy mostly ignored five years ago – Revolutionary Road. That title only managed $22 million domestically in its entire run. And it had Kate’s Titanic costar Leonardo DiCaprio in it.
Labor Day is opening on over half as many screens as Road did so its opening weekend should top the $5 million that it managed. However, passing double digits seems unlikely to me though it should come close.
Labor Day opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
For my prediction on That Awkward Moment, click here:
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