Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron’s third feature in his epic sci-fi franchise, is the last major piece of the 98th Academy Awards puzzle to come into focus. Opening Friday, the review embargo was lifted today as it hopes to rule the box office over the holidays. While it looks to join the multi-billion dollar club like its two predecessors, Fire additionally seeks to heat up Oscar ballots.
The 2009 original landed nine nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction (which it won), Cinematography (another victory), Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (a third trophy). Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 81% with 83 on Metacritic.
When Avatar: The Way of Water came out 13 years later, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing was combined into just Sound while Art Direction was now Production Design. Water was nominated for both along with Picture. The sole win came for its Visual Effects. Rotten Tomatoes was 76% with Metacritic at 67.
Fire critical reaction is so far the weakest of the trilogy with 70% on RT and a 61 Metacritic. With Oscar shortlists released this afternoon, we already know it won’t be nominated for Cinematography since it is not one of the contending 16 features. It did make four other shortlisted races – Original Score, Original Song (the Miley Cyrus track “Dream As One”), Sound, and Visual Effects.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Visual Effects is a given and Fire is the frontrunner. Sound is likely. I’m not convinced it makes the musical cut in either Score or Song.
What’s left is Picture and Production Design – the other two competitions where the other Avatar‘s got in. The latter is a stronger possibility. This third trip to Pandora could still get into BP. Yet if the Academy goes with a successful late 2025 sequel, I’d give Wicked: For Good an edge. It’s entirely feasible that neither get in. I suspect Fire may only rise in tech competitions when all is said and done. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
On paper, Goodbye June sure sounds like an Oscar contender. It marks the directorial debut of seven-time nominee (and one-time winner) Kate Winslet from a screenplay written by her son Joe Anders. The family drama set during the holidays features an awards bait cast including Toni Collette, Johnny Flynn, Andrea Riseborough, Timothy Spall, Helen Mirren, and Winslet herself. It is out in limited fashion this weekend before a Christmas Eve Netflix bow.
However, as was the case with yesterday’s post on Ella McCay, the fact that it skipped festivals and that the review embargo is lifting only now is telling. Heck there wasn’t even a trailer until a month ago. The 68% Rotten Tomatoes isn’t so bad, but Metacritic is at 49. That’s not the numbers needed for Oscar attention and you can say goodbye to its prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Avatar: Fire and Ash hopes to heat up the holiday box office season on December 19th. Clocking in at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel arrives 16 years after the record breaking original and 3 years behind Avatar: The Way of Water. The large list of returning cast members doing their motion capture work includes Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, and Jack Champion. Oona Chaplin (daughter of Geraldine and granddaughter of Charlie) is a new addition and said to be a standout in a villainess turn.
Back in 2009, Avatar was seen a big risk for 20th Century Studios. After a $77 million opening, it legged out to (at the time) become the biggest blockbuster in history with $749 million domestically. That number has climbed to $785 million when factoring re-releases. The worldwide total is $2.9 billion. 2022’s The Way of Water actually underperformed in its first frame with $134 million but held fantastically throughout the holidays and beyond. It ended up with $688 million stateside after counting its recent re-release and $2.3 billion across the globe.
Forecasts have Fire coming in lower than Water and that makes sense. There was a 13 year build-up of anticipation for the first sequel. Only a three-year gap separates these. Competitors didn’t shy away from Fire either. While Water was the only wide release in its mid-December date, this will have animated biblical tale David, female catering The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob flick providing alternatives. To be fair, part of Water‘s lack of competition was due to COVID related lack of product.
Fire might fall just under $100 million for starters. Then it will look for a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and new year.
Avatar: Fire and Ash opening weekend prediction: $98 million
Before the third edition of James Cameron’s money minting franchise arrives in December, predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases on October 3rd. Originally out in December 2022, the sci-fi epic looks to add to its $684 million in domestic dollars (good for 7th all-time) and excite moviegoers for Avatar: Fire an Ash.
This is not a new release pattern for 20th Century Studios. In September 2022, the first Avatar (the 4th biggest stateside grosser ever) had a return engagement in multiplexes. It added $10.5 million in its first 3 days.
The slightly diminishing (though still potent) results that greeted Water should apply once again. The re-release of 2009’s original was likely assisted by a longer lag time than what we have here. Nevertheless I’ll saythis return engagement still manages mid single digits.
Avatar: The Way of Water re-release opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Previously on the blog, I wrote a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 in recently years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned numerous posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them! Also – I still need to write these posts for 2023 and 2024. They’re coming.**
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five movies that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2005-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We move to 2004. There’s an obvious five pictures that would’ve made the cut and that’s the group that were nominated. It begins with Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby. That boxing drama made a late surge 21 years back and took four trophies – Picture, Director, Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor and was nominated for three more.
Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator scored a ceremony high 11 nods and won five – Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Finding Neverland from Marc Forster landed 7 nominations with a victory in Original Score. Taylor Hackford’s musical biopic Ray made Jamie Foxx a Best Actor victor and won Sound Editing in addition to nods in BP, Director, and two tech races. Alexander Payne’s Sideways was also up for Director, two acting races (though notably not Paul Giamatti in lead actor), and was the recipient of Adapted Screenplay.
That’s the quintet we know. Now we can speculate. And that begins with an unlikely contender in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Moviegoers of a certain younger age may not recall. but the documentarian’s critical look at George W. Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War was a Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, a critical smash, and became the highest grossing documentary of all time in the summer of 2004. However, Moore chose not to submit Fahrenheit for consideration in Documentary Feature where it probably would’ve been a lock to win that prize.
Fahrenheit was, however, eligible for BP. And this is the rare place on the blog where I will speak of politics coming into play. Had President Bush lost reelection in 2004, Fahrenheit might’ve been seen as a contributing factor. And in Hollywood, that might’ve been enough to earn it a spot among the theoretical 10 nominees. That did not happen and I’m therefore not including it among the expanded contenders.
While Fahrenheit is a question mark, there are some features that I feel strongly would have made the longer list. Mike Leigh’s Vera Drake was up for Director, Actress (Imelda Staunton), and Original Screenplay. Michel Gondry’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the winner in Original Screenplay while Kate Winslet was up in Actress (though Jim Carrey was notably snubbed in Actor). Hotel Rwanda was also nominated in Original Screenplay along with performers Don Cheadle and Sophie Okenedo.
In previous posts covering2007-2008, Ratatouille and Wall-E made the expanded 10. For 2004, same goes for The Incredibles. The Pixar property was the Animated Feature and Sound Editing honoree and it had nominations in (you guessed it) Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.
That leaves one spot and there’s lots of contenders. Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ was a box office smash that was up for Original Score, Cinematography, and Makeup. Yet I question whether the Academy would’ve gone for it even with five added possibilities.
Collateral from Michael Mann saw Jamie Foxx as a double nominee in Supporting Actor and a Film Editing nod. Closer had supporting nominations for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. If it had managed a Screenplay nomination, I might’ve included it. Various tech nominations were bestowed upon Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, Spider-Man 2, and A Very Long Engagement. If this were a do-over list, Azkaban probably would get in considering many believe it’s the best of the franchise. I don’t believe you’d see it at the time. Same goes for the second Spidey adventure.
For the tenth spot (and it’s admittedly a tricky one), I’m settling on The Motorcycle Diaries from Walter Salles. Diaries was subject to controversy at the Oscars in the Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) competition. The Academy ruled it ineligible in that race because “it didn’t have sufficient elements from any of the countries to qualify” (huh?). It still picked up nods in Adapted Screenplay and won Original Song. With a doubling of nominees, I think voters would’ve found room for it. That’s especially since it should have been a lock in the foreign derby.
Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.
We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.
Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actress and that’s Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here from Walter Salles. If you missed my posts covering the other Actress nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Fernanda Torres:
The Brazilian performer had her stateside awards breakthrough with the acclaimed political drama. This culminated in a fairly surprising victory at the Golden Globes for Actress in a Drama, beating out stalwarts like Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Kate Winslet (Lee).
The Case Against Fernanda Torres:
That Globe win is a bit misleading since she’s only nominee of the six to make the Academy’s cut. The other four Oscar contenders were all up for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. This includes BAFTA recipient Mikey Madison (Anora) and Globe/Critics Choice honoree Demi Moore (The Substance). Torres failed to achieve nominations at BAFTA, SAG, and Critics Choice.
The Verdict:
It’s not an impossibility that Torres could upset, but she is a distant third behind Madison and Moore.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice…
Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 4/5
I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
How I Did: 9/10
I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.
Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer
Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.
Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.
Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 4/5
I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.
Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.
Animated Film
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.
Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 5/6
I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.
Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is where Anora could get a prize.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 4/5
Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.
Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
How I Did: 5/6
I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.
Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.
Supporting Actress
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 4/6
Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.
Casting
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
How I Did: 2/5
This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.
Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
How I Did: 4/5
Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.
Costume Design
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.
Editing
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap
How I Did: 3/5
Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.
Make-Up and Hair
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.
Original Score
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.
Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.
Sound
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.
Special Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).
And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, unveil their nominees this Wednesday, January 15th. This comes after they revealed their long lists for contenders in their various races a little over a week ago.
Here are my picks for the nominees across the competitions with an alternate picked in each. I’ll have a recap with how I did and general thoughts mid-week!
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – A Complete Unknown
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Civil War, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Alternate – Wicked Little Letters
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, Kneecap, Santosh, The Taste of Mango
Alternate – Monkey Man
Best Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Alternate – Piece by Piece
Best Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, La Chimera
Alternate – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Alternate – Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Alternate – Inside Out 2
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Alternate – Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Alternate – All We Imagine as Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Wicked
Alternate – Sing Sing
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Kate Winslet (Lee)
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Alternate – Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Best Supporting Actress
Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Alternate – Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Alternate – Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Best Casting
Anora, Blitz, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – Kneecap
Best Cinematography
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – Blitz
Best Editing
Anora, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hair
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Original Score
Blitz, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Wicked
Best Production Design
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – The Brutalist
Best Special Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Alternate – Wicked
Best Sound
Civil War, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – The Substance
That works out to these pictures landing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Conclave
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
Gladiator II
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Kneecap, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Blitz, Hard Truths, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
2 Nominations
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Civil War, Flow, Lee, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Bird, Black Box Diaries, Bring Them Down, Challengers, Daughters, Grand Theft Hamlet, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, La Chimera, Memoir of a Snail, Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Outrun, Queer, Santosh, Sing Sing, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, The Taste of Mango, Will & Harper, Young Woman and the Sea
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.
For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.
That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.
I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.
And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.
After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).
This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.
I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.
Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.
Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.
For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.
Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.
Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.
Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 