Tag: Just Getting Started

Box Office Predictions: December 15-17

As the weekend approaches, the burning box office questions are clear:

How will the animated Ferdinand open after Pixar’s Coco has dominated the charts for three weeks straight?

Could Wonder jump above Justice League as they enter their fifth respective weekends?

How well will The Disaster Artist hold after an impressive 800 theater expansion?

Oh… who am I kidding? We all know what this weekend is really about…

Star Wars: The Last Jedi freaking opens!!! After The Force Awakens crushed every box office record in sight two years ago, anticipation is mighty high for episode VIII. You can read my detailed prediction on it and Ferdinand here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/04/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/06/ferdinand-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I have Jedi slated for the second biggest domestic debut of all time behind its predecessor. My estimate puts it about $28 million shy of Awakens.

My take on Ferdinand is that it will get close to $20 million (it could surpass it) for a solid second place showing as it will may play well into the holiday frames ahead.

The rest of the top 6 should be filled with leftovers as a handful of high-profile titles open in the approaching Christmas weekend.

Here’s my top 6 projections:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $219.7 million

2. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $18.6 milion

3. Coco

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Disaster Artist

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (December 8-10) 

It was the quiet before the Force this weekend as Coco remained #1 for the third weekend in a row with $18.4 million, right on pace with my $18.3 million forecast. The Pixar effort has amassed $135 million total.

Justice League was second with $9.6 million (a bit above my $8.2 million prediction) as it’s earned $212 million overall.

Wonder placed third with $8.4 million (I said $7.6 million) as it crossed the century mark at $100 million.

The Disaster Artist received a nice expansion with a fourth place showing at $6.3 million, ahead of my $4.2 million projection.

Thor: Ragnarok rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I said $6.5 million) as it blew past the triple century mark at $301 million.

Finally, the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones comedy Just Getting Started sputtered in 10th place with just $3.2 million – not matching my generous $5.2 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: December 8-10

The second weekend of December at the box office may look similar to this past one with Pixar’s Coco atop the charts for the third time. Unlike this previous frame, there are some newcomers as the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones geriatric comedy Just Getting Started debuts and James Franco’s critically heralded The Disaster Artist greatly expands its theater count. You can peruse my Just Getting Started detailed prediction here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/29/just-getting-started-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Just Getting Started may be lucky to eek out a fifth place showing. The Disaster Artist could be a wild card, but if its estimated 800 screen expansion stands, I’ll put it at $4.2 million and outside the top 5. Should its theater count expand, so will my forecast for it.

All in all, it’s a rather quiet weekend. However, that won’t last long as Star Wars: The Last Jedi is on deck next weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Just Getting Started

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Coco ruled the top spot again with $27.5 million, a bit ahead of my $25.2 million projection. The Pixar pic has taken in $110 million since its Thanksgiving release.

Justice League was second once again at $16.6 million (in line with my $16.8 million prediction) for a total of $197 million.

Wonder took third with $12.1 million (a bit below my $14.4 million calculation) for $87 million overall.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $9.8 million, topping my $7.7 million estimate for $291 million thus far.

Daddy’s Home 2 was fifth with $7.5 million (I was close at $7.1 million) for an $82 million overall gross.

Murder on the Orient Express was sixth with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and it’s made $84 million.

And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back Monday with full box office predictions for the following weekend and tomorrow I will post my detailed Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend estimate!

Just Getting Started Box Office Prediction

A pair of Oscar winners hope to bring in an older audience next weekend when Just Getting Started premieres. Morgan Freeman and Tommy Lee Jones star as retirees taking on the Mob in this comedy from Ron Shelton, best known for his directorial efforts of the past including Bull Durham and White Men Can’t Jump. Rene Russo, Glenne Headly (in her final film role), and Joe Pantoliano are among the supporting players.

Freeman has been appearing in these geriatric yuck fests with increasing frequency as of late. Earlier in the year, Going in Style debuted to a decent $11.9 million. 2013’s Last Vegas fared even better with an opening north of $16 million. A number similar to Style would seem to be the absolute high bar here. However, I have trouble seeing this getting into double digits.

One big reason: distributor Broad Green Pictures is bankrupt and promotion for Started has been muted at best. A theater count will help shed light on its potential and my estimate could be adjusted accordingly. My initial feeling is that this just gets started in the mid single digits and fades quickly.

Just Getting Started opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million