Just like they did 22 summers ago, the dinosaurs shall rule the box office this weekend as Jurassic World should easily dominate. The fourth entry in the franchise looks to score the third best opening weekend of 2015 (following Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7). You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With Jurassic being the only new film in release, that leaves holdovers. Current champ Spy should have the smallest decline while Insidious: Chapter 3 is likely to suffer the largest, as horror pics usually do.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $123.5 million
2. Spy
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)
3. San Andreas
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. Insidious: Chapter 3
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)
5. Entourage
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 45%)
Box Office Results (June 5-7)
As expected, the critically acclaimed Melissa McCarthy comedy Spy debuted at #1. However, its $29 million take did not match the openings of her 2013 efforts Identity Thief or The Heat and didn’t come close to my $42.1M prediction. This is still a solid opening for McCarthy and it should suffer smallish declines in coming weekends.
San Andreas dropped to second with $25.8 million, just above my $24.3M projection. The hit disaster thriller has amassed $98.4M in its two weeks of release.
Insidious: Chapter 3 couldn’t come close to what part 2 accomplished, but it still managed a commendable $22.6 million, under my $26M estimate. As mentioned above, look for it to fade fast, however.
The film version of HBO’s Entourage had a muted opening with $10.2 million, just below my $11.2M prediction. The five-day gross of $17.6 million (it opened on Wednesday) did just manage to outpace my $16.5M projection.
I incorrectly had Pitch Perfect 2 at fifth with an estimate of $8.4 million, but it was sixth with my $7.5M (its total stands at $160.8M). Mad Max: Fury Road ended up taking the five spot with $7.8 million to bring its cume to $130.6M.
Nearly 22 years to the day after Steven Spielberg’s dino adventure Jurassic Park invaded theaters in the summer of 1993, Colin Trevorrow’s reboot Jurassic World should rule the box office when it opens Friday. It’s the fourth entry in the franchise, but the first in fourteen years and there’s been proper time for nostalgia to increase, while still allowing young viewers to want to flock and see the cool prehistoric creatures wreaking havoc. Chris Pratt, who headlined 2014’s largest summer blockbuster Guardians of the Galaxy, stars with Bryce Dallas Howard and Vincent D’Onofrio supporting.
When the original Jurassic opened, its $47 million opening weekend take marked the biggest domestic debut of all time. It now ranks 197th. Jurassic World looks to easily double and threaten to triple what came before it over two decades ago. The pic looks to have the third highest domestic debut weekend of 2015, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7.
As I see it, this should pretty easily top $100 million out of the gate. It is the only wide release next weekend as competitors steered clear. The question is – by how much? I look for Jurassic World to flirt with $125M but fall just a bit under it for a rock solid premiere.
Jurassic World opening weekend prediction: $123.5 million
The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.
In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.
Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.
The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.
Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.
2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow.
That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.
So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four.
Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.
As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!
We’ve arrived at my top five most anticipated 2015 Summer Movies, set to start rolling out in about three weeks through the end of August. If you missed my first two posts covering numbers 15-6, have no fear, just click here:
This brings us to the heavy hitters on my list of must-see flicks for the season.
And away we go:
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
Release Date: May 15
As mentioned in my first post, this July’s Terminator: Genisys didn’t make my top 15 cut because of what I consider its blah trailer. Mad Max: Fury Road represents the opposite. It looks flat out awesome as director George Miller reboots the series some 35 years after the first Mad Max with Mel Gibson. Tom Hardy steps into the title role with Charlize Theron costarring.
4. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Release Date: July 31
Pushed up from its original December release date, Tom Cruise’s fifth Mission pic brings in his Jack Reacher director Christopher McQuarrie. Series regulars Ving Rhames, Jeremy Renner, and Simon Pegg are back and joined by Alec Baldwin. 2011’s Ghost Protocol was a high point for the franchise and let’s hope this keeps it going.
3. Jurassic World
Release Date: June 12
The famed dino franchise begun by Spielberg gets a reboot with director Colin Trevorrow taking over and Star Lord himself Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard headlining. The trailer has me ready to return to that dastardly park immediately.
2. Tomorrowland
Release Date: May 22
Disney has enlisted their Incredibles director Brad Bird (he also directed the aforementioned Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol) for this live-action tale featuring George Clooney, Britt Robertson, and Hugh Laurie. The plot is being kept under wraps, but the trailer suggests a visual feast. With Bird behind the camera, expect something special.
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1
The first picture of the summer is my most awaited and is certainly poised to be the season’s highest earner. Three years after teaming Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Thor, Black Widow, Hawkeye and more – Joss Whedon is back again directing Marvel’s superhero team in the breathlessly awaited sequel to the second highest grossing domestic earner of all time. James Spader voices the title character villain. Don’t be surprised if this has the largest opening weekend in box office history – beating out, yes, The Avengers.
And that’ll do it, friends! I hope my list assists you with your popcorn viewing pleasure coming very soon…
For movie lovers, the year 2015 has been eagerly awaited for a number of reasons. As you’ll see, tonight I am listing my 15 most anticipated pictures of the upcoming year. In order to prove how big next year could be (it’s widely expected to set records in terms of box office), here’s just some of what I left off:
The reboot of the Terminator series (Genisys) that returns Schwarzenegger
A big-budget Peter Pan reboot (Pan) starring Hugh Jackman
Iron Man director Jon Favreau’s The Jungle Book
Kenneth Branagh’s Cinderella
The latest films from notable directors like Guillermo del Toro (Crimson Peak), Michael Mann (Blackhat), the Wachowskis (Jupiter Ascending), Neill Blomkamp (Chappie), and Ron Howard (In the Heart of the Sea)
The film version of HBO’s Entourage
The seventh Fast and Furious entry which features Paul Walker’s final work
The Peanuts Movie where Charlie Brown and company finally come to the silver screen
So… what did make the cut? Read on:
15. The Fantastic Four
Release Date: August 7
20th Century Fox had solid box office results but a mediocre product with their two Fantastic Four pics that featured Jessica Alba, Michael Chiklis, and company. There is hope here with the reboot – Chronicle director Josh Trank is behind the camera with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, Michael B. Jordan, and Jamie Bell.
14. Mad Max: Fury Road
Release Date: May 15
Director George Miller’s return to the series that made Mel Gibson a star puts Tom Hardy in the title role with Charlize Theron and Nicholas Hoult supporting. I’ve always been curious about this one, but its inclusion in the list is much due to the fabulous trailer that was recently released.
13. Ted 2
Release Date: June 26
Seth MacFarlane’s 2012 original made a huge splash. It was one of the better comedies in recent years and earned $218 million domestically. Mark Wahlberg is back with MacFarlane voicing the vulgar bear.
12. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2
Release Date: November 20
I was a bit disappointed in Part 1, but hope still springs eternal for the finale of the franchise in which we’ll bid farewell to Katniss and company.
11. Jurassic World
Release Date: June 12
Colin Trevorrow takes over Universal’s dino franchise that Spielberg started. Star Lord himself, Chris Pratt, headlines the cast that includes Bryce Dallas Howard and Vincent D’Onofrio. Expect young moviegoers and those nostalgic for the original from over 20 years ago to RSVP.
10. Joy
Release Date: December 25
Jennifer Lawrence could find herself once again in awards conversations playing real life Joy Mangano, inventor of the Miracle Mop. Joy is easily included because of its director – David O. Russell, whose last three efforts (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle) have all been Best Picture nominees.
9. Mission: Impossible 5
Release Date: December 25
This Tom Cruise franchise was completely reinvigorated with Brad Bird’s fourth flick, Ghost Protocol. Jeremy Renner, Ving Rhames, and Simon Pegg are back assisting Ethan Hunt with Jack Reacher‘s Christopher McQuarrie taking over directorial duties.
8. Ant-Man
Release Date: July 17
Never. Doubt. Marvel. Ever. They doubted that Iron Man could be a successful franchise. Same with Guardians of the Galaxy. So… if a picture called Ant-Man starring Paul Rudd sounds like a gamble, my guess is just wait. Peyton Reed directs with Evangeline Lilly and Michael Douglas costarring.
7. The Revenant
Release Date: December 25
Set in the 1800s, this drama finds Leonardo DiCaprio seeking revenge on thieves who left him to die. Tom Hardy costars with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (maker of Birdman) directing.
6. Tomorrowland
Release Date: May 22
As mentioned earlier, Brad Bird infused life into the Mission: Impossible series recently. He also made classic Pixar titles The Incredibles and Ratatouille. Here he’s back with Disney making a secretive fantasy adventure that stars George Clooney and Hugh Laurie.
5. St. James Place
Release Date: October 16
It’s a Cold War thriller… directed by Steven Spielberg. Written by the Coen Brothers. Starring Tom Hanks. Enough said.
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1
The follow-up to 2012’s mega blockbuster finds the gang all returning (including director Joss Whedon) with James Spader voicing the title character bad guy.
3. Spectre
Release Date: November 6
After the billion dollar worldwide gross of Skyfall, Daniel Craig is back for his fourth go round as 007 with double Oscar winner Christoph Waltz as the main villain. Sam Mendes returns to direct after the smashing Skyfall success.
2. The Hateful Eight
Release Date: Fall
For those who are familiar with this blog, you know that (in my mind) Quentin Tarantino has never made a movie that isn’t terrific. Let’s hope the trend continues here with this Western starring Samuel L. Jackson, Kurt Russell, Bruce Dern, Tim Roth, and Channing Tatum.
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Release Date: December 18
I mean… what else could possibly top new Tarantino? I’ve written plenty about it already so I won’t go on. Needless to say, the film world is breathlessly anticipating what JJ Abrams does with the most famous franchise in movie history.
And that’s all for now, folks! Here’s to a great 2015 and the pictures that populate it!
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