Tag: June Squibb

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 25th Edition

It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.

This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.

There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.

Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.

Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)

14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)

24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026

Is This Thing On?

Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)

11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jack O’Connell, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, Michael

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (moved to lead actor)

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Oscar Predictions: Eleanor the Great

At age 95, June Squibb was at the Cannes Film Festival today as her starring vehicle Eleanor the Great debuted. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of Scarlett Johansson with a supporting cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Jessica Hecht, Erin Kellyman, and Rita Zohar.

It marks the second year in a row that Squibb is considered a factor in the awards conversation. Last year’s Thelma garnered impressive reviews. They ultimately did not translate into nominations for its star who was up for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska.

As we await word of stateside distribution, Eleanor had a mixed reaction in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64% though Squibb is being heralded. She’ll need a strong campaign that exceeds Thelma‘s in what looks like a crowded Actress field. Her chances could be stronger at the Globes where the distributor will be faced with a choice of whether to slot her in Drama or Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 4th Edition

In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.

My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)

18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)

20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)

21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)

22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)

24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)

13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Nia Long, Michael

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Brendan Fraser, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

98th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21st Edition

A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.

Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).

Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.

You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).

This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.

With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Wicked: For Good

5. Sinners

6. The Rivals of Amziah King

7. Hamnet

8. Jay Kelly

9. The Life of Chuck

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another

12. Frankenstein

13. Bugonia

14. Deliver Me from Nowhere

15. The Smashing Machine

16. No Other Choice

17. The Ballad of a Small Player

18. Michael

19. Die, My Love

20. Highest 2 Lowest

21. Kiss of the Spider Woman

22. F1

23. Is This Thing On?

24. Ann Lee

25. Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere

14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead

15. Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

12. Emily Watson, Hamnet

13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

14. Nia Long, Michael

15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.

This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.

For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.

That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.

I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.

And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.

After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).

This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.

I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.

Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.

Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.

For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.

Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.

Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.

Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!

    82nd Golden Globes Awards Nominations Reaction

    Nominations for perhaps the most recognizable Oscar precursor show were unveiled this morning. We now know the pictures and personnel contending for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, airing January 5th with Nikki Glaser hosting.

    There are always surprises to be found with unexpected additions and subtractions in the cinematic races and that held true. I went 74 for 92 in my predictions. Of the 15 feature film categories, I went 6/6 in five of them.

    As I projected, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez led the way with 10 nominations followed by The Brutalist‘s seven and Conclave‘s 6. Let’s break down each competition with how I did and some commentary on where I see the races currently.

    Best Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5

    How I Did: 5/6

    September 5 gets in over Sing Sing. Perhaps the biggest shocker of the day is Sing Sing only generating one nomination for its lead Colman Domingo in Actor (Drama). Nickel Boys and September 5‘s noms mark their sole mentions. The Brutalist is probably out front but I wouldn’t sleep on Conclave.

    Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked

    How I Did: 6/6

    Pérez could emerge here considering the haul this morning though Anora and Wicked (to a slightly lesser degree) are possibilities.

    Best Director

    Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

    How I Did: 4/6

    I did not have Berger (thought he was my runner-up) or Kapadia. Instead, I predicted Jon M. Chu (Wicked) and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. The latter is a surprising omission three years after he missed the cut at Oscar. Corbet is the favorite in my estimation even if it doesn’t take Motion Picture (Drama).

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)

    How I Did: 4/6

    Anderson (my runner-up) and Torres are in contention over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. Jean-Baptiste is racking up critics awards and her omission is a bit unexpected. If Ronan can’t make it here, her Oscar odds are in serious trouble. This could come down to Jolie vs. Kidman. Fun fact: none of the pictures represented here are up for Best Drama (the only acting category where that is the case).

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)

    Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    How I Did: 6/6

    No surprises here as Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are vying for the statue.

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

    Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)

    How I Did: 5/6

    Runner-up Adams is in over June Squibb (Thelma). Madison has the edge though I wouldn’t discount Erivo, Gascón, or Moore for the upset.

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

    Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

    How I Did: 4/6

    LaBelle and Plemons in with Michael Keaton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) and Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool & Wolverine) out. I don’t really think there’s a frontrunner though Eisenberg and Powell are maybe in the lead with Grant as a legit threat.

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

    Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    How I Did: 6/6

    Frankly I’m a little shocked I went 6 for 6 as there’s lots of contenders in this derby. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) is a snub many are pointing out. As for the winner, this is Grande vs. Saldaña.

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

    Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

    How I Did: 4/6

    Culkin is getting lots of critics prize love while Pearce and Washington are threats. I didn’t have Norton or Strong and instead went with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). I still think both of those performers could get into the Oscar dance.

    Best Screenplay

    Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance

    How I Did: 5/6

    Had Sing Sing instead of A Real Pain as Anora looks to nab this one.

    Best Animated Motion Picture

    Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 6/6

    This went as planned and The Wild Robot looks to capture this prize with Flow (a critics darling) looking to disrupt that plan.

    Best Foreign Language Motion Picture

    Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

    How I Did: 5/6

    Logic says Perez, but Kapadia’s directing nod opens for the door for Light.

    Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

    Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 6/8

    Went with Despicable Me 4 and Dune: Part Two and not Romulus and The Wild Robot. Dune missing is head scratching. This would be a good place to honor Wicked though Deadpool is the year’s largest grosser.

    Best Score

    Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 6/6

    This looks kinda wide open to me at the moment, but The Brutalist might be the slight favorite.

    Best Song

    Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

    How I Did: 3/6

    The blasted Song category represents my worst performance as “Beautiful” and “Compress” and “Forbidden” make the playlist over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, and “Piece by Piece” from the same titled feature. Betting odds favor Pérez and I’d go with “El Mal” though “Sky” is a possibility.

    I’ll have winner predictions shortly before the January 5th ceremony and here’s a breakdown of all the features nominated.

    10 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    6 Nominations

    Conclave

    5 Nominations

    Anora, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    Challengers, A Real Pain, Wicked, The Wild Robot

    3 Nominatons

    A Complete Unknown

    2 Nominations

    All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, The Last Showgirl

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Heretic, Hit Man, Kinds of Kindness, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, Queer, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, Sing Sing, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    82nd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

    The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will come our way in a month on January 5th with Nikki Glaser handling hosting duties. Nominations are out this coming Monday (12/09). Readers of the blog know that I do a whole lotta Oscar speculating. That’s not the case with the GG’s but I’m giving you take on who and what will be nominated.

    For the Globes, there are six nominees in each race with the exception of Cinematic and Box Office Achievement where there’s 8. I’ll give my picks along with a runner-up. Some quick notes: the Globes divide their Picture and lead acting derbies into Drama and Musical/Comedy. The designations below are the reported slots where films and performers are contending. Yes, there’s interesting choices with Heretic in comedy. On the flip side, if A Complete Unknown had submitted in Musical/Comedy, Timothée Chalamet might be the easy frontrunner in Best Actor.

    Next week I’ll have a recap up with how I did and my early frontrunners for winners!

    Best Motion Picture – Drama

    The Brutalist

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Dune: Part Two

    Nickel Boys

    Sing Sing

    ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door

    Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    Anora

    Challengers

    Emilia Pérez

    A Real Pain

    The Substance

    Wicked

    ALTERNATE – A Different Man

    Best Director

    Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

    Sean Baker, Anora

    Jon M. Chu, Wicked

    Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

    Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    ALTERNATE – Edward Berger, Conclave

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

    Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

    Angelina Jolie, Maria

    Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

    Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

    Kate Winslet, Lee

    ALTERNATE – Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

    Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

    Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

    Daniel Craig, Queer

    Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

    Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

    Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

    ALTERNATE – John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

    Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comed

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

    Mikey Madison, Anora

    Demi Moore, The Substance

    June Squibb, Thelma

    Zendaya, Challengers

    ALTERNATE – Amy Adams, Nightbitch

    Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

    Hugh Grant, Heretic

    Michael Keaton, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Glen Powell, Hit Man

    Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool & Wolverine

    Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

    ALTERNATE – Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

    Best Supporting Actress

    Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

    Ariana Grande, Wicked

    Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

    Margaret Qualley, The Substance

    Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

    Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

    ALTERNATE – Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

    Best Supporting Actor

    Yura Borisov, Anora

    Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

    Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

    Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

    Stanley Tucci, Conclave

    Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

    ALTERNATE – Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

    Best Screenplay

    Anora

    The Brutalist

    Conclave

    Emilia Pérez

    Sing Sing

    The Substance

    ALTERNATE – A Real Pain

    Best Animated Feature

    Flow

    Inside Out 2

    Memoir of a Snail

    Moana 2

    Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    The Wild Robot

    ALTERNATE – Piece by Piece

    Best Non-English Language Film

    All We Imagine as Light

    Emilia Pérez

    The Girl with the Needle

    I’m Still Here

    Kneecap

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    ALTERNATE – Universal Language

    Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

    Deadpool & Wolverine

    Despicable Me 4

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Inside Out 2

    Twisters

    Wicked

    ALTERNATE – Moana 2

    Best Score

    The Brutalist

    Challengers

    Conclave

    Dune: Part Two

    Emilia Pérez

    The Wild Robot

    ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door

    Best Song

    “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

    “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

    “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

    “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing

    “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

    “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece

    ALTERNATE – “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

    That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    6 Nominations

    Conclave

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

    4 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    3 Nominations

    Challengers, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Babygirl, Despicable Me 4, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 21st Edition

    The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.

    There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.

    We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.

    For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)

    14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Queer

    Nosferatu

    The Apprentice

    All We Imagine as Light

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    The Piano Lesson

    Wicked

    Juror No. 2

    His Three Daughters

    A Different Man

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

    James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

    Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

    Luca Guadagnino, Queer

    Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

    Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

    Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

    June Squibb, Thelma

    Zendaya, Challengers

    Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

    Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

    Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

    John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

    Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress

    Lesley Manville, Queer

    Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

    Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

    Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Drew Starkey, Queer

    Harris Dickinson, Blitz

    Mark Eidelstein, Anora

    Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

    John Lithgow, Conclave

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)

    Dropped Out:

    His Three Daughters

    Dídi

    Kinds of Kindness

    A Different Man

    Juror No. 2

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    I’m Still Here

    Gladiator II

    Nightbitch

    Inside Out 2

    Nosferatu

    The Wild Robot

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Simon of the Mountain

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Room Next Door

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Queer

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

    “Why Am I Here” from Shirley

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    A Complete Unknown

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two

    9 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    8 Nominations

    Blitz

    6 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Conclave, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

    To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.

    Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.

    Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.

    There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.

    In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.

    And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.

    Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

    12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)

    14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)

    15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)

    17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)

    18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)

    19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)

    20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)

    21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)

    22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)

    23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Nightbitch

    Maria

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting

    Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

    14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    André Holland, The Actor

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Kathy Burke, Blitz

    Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)

    Dropped Out:

    Stephen Graham, Blitz

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

    12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    The Fire Inside

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)

    5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Count of Monte Cristo

    Cloud

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Queer

    Maria

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Queer

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)

    9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    Blitz

    Nickel Boys

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

    “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

    “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Civil War

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Alien: Romulus

    And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Conclave, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

    2 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked