Tag: Julianne Moore

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!

The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.

As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.

Let’s go to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Silence (PR: 3)

4) Fences (PR: 4)

5) Moonlight (PR: 5)

6) Loving (PR: 6)

7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

8) Lion (PR: 11)

9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10) Arrival (PR: 13)

11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)

12) Jackie (PR: 12)

13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14) Sully (PR: 16)

15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)

16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)

17) Allied (PR: 19)

18) Passengers (PR: 17)

19) Live by Night (PR: 25)

20) The Founder (PR: 21)

21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)

23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)

DROPPED OUT:

American Pastoral, Moana, Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)

5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)

11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)

12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)

7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)

8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)

9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)

12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)

4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)

14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)

15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)

13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

John Legend, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)

10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)

11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)

12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)

15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)

Dropped Out:

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) La La Land (PR: 3)

2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3) Moonlight (PR: 2)

4) Loving (PR: 4)

5) Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8) The Lobster (PR: 8)

9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

10) Zootopia (PR: 11)

11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)

13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Passengers (PR: 13)

15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Founder

Gold

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences (PR: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

4) Silence (PR: 4)

5) Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Arrival (PR: 8)

7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8) Sully (PR: 12)

9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

10) Elle (PR: 11)

11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

12) Live by Night (PR: 13)

13) Denial (PR: 14)

14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Pastoral

And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 8th Edition

As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.

Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1) La Land Land

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Silence

4) Fences

5) Moonlight

6) Loving

7) Manchester by the Sea

8) Nocturnal Animals

9) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

10) The Birth of a Nation

11) Lion

12) Jackie

13) Arrival

14) 20th Century Women

15) Hidden Figures

16) Sully

17) Passengers

18) Hell or High Water

19) Allied

20) Moana

21) The Founder

22) The Jungle Bok

23) Collateral Beauty

24) Gold

25) Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence

4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

5) Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival

11) Garth Davis, Lion

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie

15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Denzel Washington, Fences

2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving

4) Michael Keaton, The Founder

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Other Possibilities:

6) Tom Hanks, Sully

7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

9) Dev Patel, Lion

10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Viola Davis, Fences

3) Natalie Portman, Jackie

4) Ruth Negga, Loving

5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Other Possibilities:

6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

9) Amy Adams, Arrival

10) Rooney Mara, Una

11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

15) Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2) Liam Neeson, Silence

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

10) Timothy Spall, Denial

11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

13) John Legend, La La Land

14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully

15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Other Possibilities:

6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

9) Nicole Kidman, Lion

10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars

15) Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) Moonlight

3) La La Land

4) Loving

5) Jackie

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women

7) Hell or High Water

8) The Lobster

9) The Birth of a Nation

10) The Founder

11) Zootopia

12) Gold

13) Passengers

14) Rules Don’t Apply

15) Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Nocturnal Animals

4) Silence

5) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

6) Lion

7) Hidden Figures

8) Arrival

9) Love & Friendship

10) The Girl on the Train

11) Elle

12) Sully

13) Live by Night

14) Denial

15) The Jungle Book

And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

The summer movie season has wound to a close and we can feel the autumn season just around the corner. That means football, leaves changing, and back to school. It also means the 2016 fall movie season is about to begin and that means – early Oscar speculation!!

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it may seem a bit too early for that, but it isn’t. The film festival season will be starting before we know it with Venice, Toronto, Telluride and New York on deck. A host of Oscar hopefuls will receive their first screenings and generate their first buzz. So this week – as I have in years past – I roll out my first round of Oscar predictions. This will be done in six installments beginning with Supporting Actress today and continuing daily with Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and the big dog – Picture. Each post will predict the five nominees (or in the case of Picture – five to ten). As the week wear on, I’ll be increasing my predictions to a weekly feature on the blog.

For Supporting Actress, let’s take a little trip down memory lane with my predictions in 2014 and 2015. Two years back, my earliest predictions yielded two out of the eventual five nominated performers (including winner Patricia Arquette for Boyhood). Last year, these initial predictions gave us three of the five and, in a way, four. At the time, there was uncertainty as to whether Alicia Vikander would be campaigned for in lead or supporting for The Danish Girl and I predicted her at the time for Actress. The campaign went with supporting and she was the winner. Let’s get to it!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

At this juncture, I’d say there’s no shoo-in nominees but Michelle Williams in this fall’s Manchester by the Sea is about as close as it gets. The pic has already screened at festivals to raves with many critics singling out her work.

Ang Lee’s November war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks to be a player in many categories and that could certainly trickle down to Kristen Stewart. The trailer for Moonlight seems to indicate a very meaty and Oscar-baity type role for Naomie Harris. There are questions surrounding how many nominations the acclaimed slavery pic The Birth of a Nation will receive (more on that in future posts), but Aja Naomi King has gotten acclaim for her role already.

As for a fifth, I’m just going to go with a total and complete wild card: Bryce Dallas Howard in December’s Gold, which not much is known about at the moment (no trailer even). Why? Well, this category is quite unformed at the moment, so why not? If it pans out, I’ll look really smart!

There’s a slew of others as possibilities, including multiple possibilities for 20th Century Women, American Pastoral and The Girl on the Train (with both Fanning sisters no less) and we shall see how it plays out in the coming weeks and months. For now…

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Other Possibilities:

Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train

Jennifer Connelly, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Rosemarie DeWitt, La La Land

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Jennifer Jason Leigh, LBJ

Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

Zoe Saldana, Live by Night

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans

Kate Winslet, Collateral Beauty

We’ll get to Supporting Actor tomorrow!

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses of All Time (25-21)

Hey all – a couple of years back, I wrote a series counting down the top 25 highest grossing actors at the domestic box office of all time. At that time in August 2014, there were four women among the 25. Now there’s just two.

This led me to think – who are the top 25 actresses in box office history? Well, wonder no more, friends! This five-part series will count down the women who have made the greatest impact financially at the multiplex. As with my previous list, I’ll list their career earnings, franchises they’ve been part of (which helps one to make this list, as you’ll see), their highest and lowest grossing pictures, and the number of $100M plus entries they have appeared in. I’ll also tell you where they rank on the overall list of biggest grossing performers when you factor the fellas in.

Before we dive into the actual list, here’s some women I figured might have been here, but didn’t make the cut. Despite that whole Titanic being one of the hugest blockbusters ever and multiple Oscar nominations thing, no Kate Winslet. No Drew Barrymore or Nicole Kidman or Charlize Theron. Same goes for Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston and Melissa McCarthy. The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise wasn’t enough to vault Keira Knightley on here.

Enough of who didn’t make the list. Who did? Let’s get to it with numbers 25-21, shall we?

25. Kristen Stewart

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: Twilight

Highest Grossing Picture: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (2010) – $300 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 6 (The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, The Twilight Saga: New Moon, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, Twilight, Snow White and the Huntsman)

Lowest Grosser: Camp X-Ray (2014) – $13,000

Overall Rank: 116

24. Gwyneth Paltrow

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: The Marvel Cinematic Universe

Highest Grossing Picture: The Avengers (2012) – $623 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Iron Man 3, The Avengers, Iron Man 2, Iron Man, Shakespeare in Love, Seven)

Lowest Grosser: The Good Night (2007) – $22,000

Overall Rank: 111

23. Halle Berry

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: X-Men

Highest Grossing Picture: X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) – $234 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 7 (X-Men: The Last Stand, X-Men: Days of Future Past, X2: X-Men United, Die Another Day, X-Men, The Flintstones, Robots)

Lowest Grosser: Frankie & Alice (2011) – $706,000

Overall Rank: 106

22. Queen Latifah

Career Earnings: $1.8 billion

Franchises: Ice Age

Highest Grossing Picture: Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (2009) – $196 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 7 (Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, Ice Age: The Meltdown, Chicago, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Bringing Down the House, Hairspray, Valentine’s Day)

Lowest Grosser: The Perfect Holiday (2007) – $5.8 million

Overall Rank: 104

21. Julianne Moore

Career Earnings: $1.9 billion

Franchises: The Hunger Games

Highest Grossing Picture: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (2014) – $337 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 5 (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1, Hannibal, The Lost World: Jurassic Park, The Fugitive)

Lowest Grosser: World Traveler (2002) – $103,000

Overall Rank: 97

And that’ll do it for today! I’ll be bringing you numbers 20-16 tomorrow…

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 Movie Review

Over the last near four years, The Hunger Games franchise begat the true birth of YA novel adapted pictures that have continued with diverging and maze running. Perhaps more importantly, it gave the masses Jennifer Lawrence who’s gone onto quite an impressive career thanks to this series and David O. Russell with Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and the upcoming Joy. It also gave its studio Lionsgate a serious cash cow and that explains the decision to divide the final installment Mockingjay into two parts. They did so because they knew the cash cow was about to graze and last year’s Part 1 felt incomplete. That picture didn’t feel so much as half a film. Instead it often felt unnecessary and slowly paced with filler where they didn’t need to be. Mockingjay – Part 1 was light on action and often too grim, dark, and plodding for its own good.

Some of those same tenets hold true for Part 2 (the first hour drags a bit), but this experience feels much more satisfying and sends the franchise off with competence. We pick up where we left off with Lawrence’s Katniss fervently marching towards the Capitol to kill President Snow (Donald Sutherland, still relishing his villainous role). There is still a love triangle between the brainwashed Peeta (Josh Hutcherson, whose acting here is better than we’ve seen before) and hunky Gale (Liam Hemsworth), though we correctly sense how it will turn out eventually. And Katniss is still being used by District 13’s President Coin (Julianne Moore) for propaganda purposes as her motives are constantly in question. The goals of Katniss are undeniably noble while we’re not so sure about the President she’s working for.

Part 2 ups the adventure quotient and director Francis Lawrence is serviceable at delivering these sequences. One in an abandoned subway system with some freaky looking creatures is particularly well-constructed and suspenseful. Yet the real suspense lurks with what Katniss will do once reaches her nemesis President Snow and whether he really is the baddest of the bad guys.

The dynamic between Katniss, Peeta, and Gale has been a running theme throughout these movies. A common complaint has been the underwhelming acting of Hutcherson that sort of makes you root for Gale more than you should. It’s not a notion I disagree with. Here, however, Peeta’s struggle with the mind tricks Snow heaped upon him adds a fascinating dimension. In one segment, he tells Katniss “You should cuff me…” and he means in the literal restraint form with zero shades of grey.

As for various performances, Lawrence again shows she was meant for this role and brings an emotional heft that elevates the material. Moore, Sutherland, and Woody Harrelson as returning mentor Haymitch are all pros. Philip Seymour Hoffman is here in limited screen time, which is probably due to his tragic death nearly two years ago. There are a couple of scenes where he should obviously be in it. Elizabeth Banks is given a couple scenes as franchise favorite Effie.

For the most part, Mockingjay – Part 2 is about getting down to the business of Katniss exacting her revenge. And that thirst for revenge only grows during the fairly well-paced proceedings taking place here. The body count piles up. The stakes grow higher and everything feels urgent in a way that it didn’t and really couldn’t in Part 1. Having never read the Suzanne Collins books which these Games are adapted from, I don’t know about the complaints I’ve picked up about a disappointing ending for the series. The actions of Katniss in the third act worked for me and the action displayed here is pretty good stuff. If there’s a quibble to be had, it’s that the first two Hunger Games films had more of a sense of humor and there was fun to be had. The original actually felt rather fresh and 2013’s Catching Fire brought the series to a creative high. It stands as easily as the finest picture of the quartet. The final two are considerably bleaker in tone, but word is that faithfully follows what Collins brought her readers. As I wrote in my review of Part 1, there’s no actual “hunger games” happening anymore in these last two entries. Thankfully, Part 2 concludes The Hunger Games franchise in a mostly sufficient manner.

*** (out of four)

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

The final installment of the wildly popular franchise based on Suzane Collins’s novels hits screens next Friday as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opens. Francis Lawrence returns to direct and Jennifer Lawrence is back leading her impressive cast that includes Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Sam Chaflin, Jena Malone, Stanley Tucci, Jeffrey Wright, and Philip Seymour Hoffman (in his final film role). So far, this is getting better reviews than Part 1‘s 65% Rotten Tomatoes score as this stands at 88% currently.

While all entries in this series have made major bucks, it is worth noting that predecessor Mockingjay – Part 1 came in below the first two flicks. Let’s take a trip down box office history lane with this franchise that began in spring 2012:

The Hunger Games

Opening: $152 million with $408 million overall domestic gross

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Opening: $158 million with $424 overall domestic gross

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Opening: $121 million with $337 million overall domestic gross

I find it unlikely that the final tale will outdo the first two, but it could edge out Part 1 simply due to the fact that it’s the last one. It has become commonplace for studios to divide a franchise’s finale installment into two parts. We’ve seen it with Harry Potter and Twilight and Lionsgate did just that here (we’ll see this tactic employed again in the future with the Divergent and Avengers series).

My gut tells me this performs similar to what Part 2 of the last Twilight picture accomplished by making about $3-6 million more that what its predecessor debuted to.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $124.2 million

For my The Night Before prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

For my Secret in Their Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Oscar History: 2010

In my ongoing series of Oscar History posts, we arrive at what happened during the year 2010. This was quite a strong year for movies and, unlike other years, I can’t really quibble with the ten pictures that were nominated.

I can, however, differ with what won: Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. While this was a very solid and entertaining picture, I would have definitely put at least three of the other nominees above it: Black Swan, Inception, and my favorite of the year, The Social Network. Other nominees were 127 Hours, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone. 

Picture/Director matched up as Tom Hooper’s work in King’s Speech would win over Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), and David O. Russell (The Fighter). I may have found a spot for Christopher Nolan’s visually striking work in Inception. 

The love for The King’s Speech continued in Best Actor as Colin Firth was honored for his portrayal as King George VI. He triumphed over Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), and James Franco (127 Hours). It’s worth noting that Franco co-hosted the Oscars that year with Anne Hathaway. It wasn’t too memorable.

While his supporting players were showered with love, Mark Wahlberg was snubbed for his anchoring performance in The Fighter. Others worthy of mention: Leonardo DiCaprio in either Inception or Shutter Island and Robert Duvall for Get Low.

Natalie Portman was a bit of a no-brainer pick for her tour de force work in Black Swan in the Actress race, beating out Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).

I was a little surprised to see Bening’s Kids lead costar Julianne Moore left out. Franco’s co-host Anne Hathaway would’ve been a solid choice for her fine work in Love and Other Drugs. The Oscar voters rarely honor comedy, but they could have here with Emma Stone in her hit Easy A, as well.

Supporting Actor honored Christian Bale as Mark Wahlberg’s drug addicted brother in The Fighter. The other nominees were John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech).

I might have found room for either Andrew Garfield or Justin Timberlake in The Social Network. And keeping the snubbed comedy theme going, here’s an outside the box mention: Rob Corddry for his hilarious work in Hot Tub Time Machine.

The Fighter also won in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo, who edged out her co-star Amy Adams. The other nominees: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, and Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. The voters could have certainly nominated either Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey for their roles in Black Swan.

And that’s your Oscar History of 2010, my friends. We’ll get to 2011 soon…

Oscar Watch: Freeheld

While the Cannes, Venice, and Telluride film festivals were successful in showcasing a number of Oscar hopefuls including Carol, The Danish Girl, Steve Jobs, and Spotlight, among others – this year’s in progress Toronto Film Festival has already premiered several titles that have seen their awards hope dim.

One is Freeheld, a domestic partnership drama starring Julianne Moore, Ellen Page, Steve Carell, and Michael Shannon. Directed by Peter Sollett and based on a 2007 documentary, this was looked at as a potential contender in several categories before it screened up north. Reviews have been very mixed and any chance it had at a Picture nod seems to have fallen by the wayside.

Still, it’s a little naive to completely count Moore in Best Actress out and her performance has received solid notices. Yet as mentioned in previous Oscar watch posts, that race is looking very crowded already with Cate Blanchett in Carol, possibly Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl (though she could be recognized instead in Supporting), Carey Mulligan in Suffragette, Brie Larson in Room, Lily Tomlin in Grandma, Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn, and the as yet unforeseen work of Jennifer Lawrence in Joy. In other words, the competition could crowd Moore out and Academy voters may be OK with that considering she won just last year for her work in Still Alice. She remains a possibility, however, and can’t be totally discounted. As for other performers, Michael Shannon has received positive word of mouth but is a long shot for Supporting Actor.

All in all, Toronto essentially dashed the hopes of Freeheld gaining any major traction in the 2015 awards derby.

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This evening on the blog, we continue on with my very early and first predictions for the 2015 Oscars and we’ve come to Best Actress. This category, just like Supporting Actor and Actress, yielded two out of the five nominees when I made my predictions in 2014 with 1 other that was nominated being mentioned as an other possibility.

Astonishingly, the group of actresses that could be honored in 2015 encompasses seven out of the eight past winners of the award. 2007 winner Marion Cotillard is getting buzz for Macbeth, though it’s unclear whether she’ll be campaigned for here or in supporting. 2008 winner Kate Winslet has this fall’s The Dressmaker. 2009 winner Sandra Bullock headlines this October’s Our Brand is Crisis. 2011’s Meryl Streep had Ricki and the Flash last month. It’s always foolish to count her out, but the film’s low box office and mixed critical response could hinder her chances. 2012’s Jennifer Lawrence teams with David O. Russell again for Joy and her two previous films with him both landed her Oscar nods and a win for Silver Linings Playbook. 2013’s Cate Blanchett seems practically guaranteed a nod for Todd Haynes’s Carol, which premiered to raves at Cannes. 2014’s Julianne Moore has Freeheld out soon and it could make her a contender again.

Ultimately, however, my early predictions only have two of these women ending up with nominations. Alicia Vikander (who made a splash already this year with Ex Machina) is bound to get attention for Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl. Carey Mulligan stars in the womens voting rights drama Suffragette. Saoirse Ronan has already gotten raves on the festival circuit for this autumn’s immigration tale Brooklyn.

More possibilities abound. Veteran comedian/actress Lily Tomlin is being praised for the indie pic Grandma. Emily Blunt stars in the action drama Sicario this September. Angelina Jolie directs and stars in By the Sea. And we can’t count out Charlize Theron in this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road, even though it’s difficult for the action genre to give us acting nominees. It is worth noting that it happened with Sigourney Weaver nearly 30 years ago with Aliens.

This race looks to be one of the most competitive with a whole lot of huge stars going for the prize. And here’s my first take:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy 

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

 

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Sandra Bullock, Our Brand is Crisis

Marion Cotillard, Macbeth

Angelina Jolie, By the Sea

Julianne Moore, Freeheld

Meryl Streep, Ricki and the Flash

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Kate Winslet, The Dressmaker 

For my previous posts with early predictions on Supporting Actor and Actress, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/01/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/30/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

The Lost World: Jurassic Park – A Look Back

On this Throwback Thursday and on the evening of the debut of the franchise reboot Jurassic World, it would be obvious to pontificate about the original Jurassic Park. It opened 22 years ago today and is widely and deservedly considered a modern day classic. I, however, chose to go in a different direction and talk about The Lost World: Jurassic Park, which stood as one of the most breathlessly awaited sequels ever in the summer of 1997. While the dino sequel certainly has its share of moments, impressive visuals and well constructed action sequences – the thrill, as the late B.B. King put it, is gone – mostly.

The Lost World picks up four years after the events of the original and stars Sam Neill and Laura Dern are nowhere to be found (they would come out of extinction for the third installment). Instead Dr. Ian Malcolm (Jeff Goldblum), the wise cracking comic relief from part one is the headliner. He’s still understandably shaken up from the events that transpired on Isla Nublar and things don’t improve when John Hammond (Richard Attenborough) informs him that there was always a second island where the replicated dinosaurs are developed. To add insult to injury, Ian’s girlfriend Sarah (Julianne Moore), a paleontologist, is already on the island documenting them. It’s all part of Hammond’s way of protecting his money grubbing family from turning the island into a theme park, which he knows darn well didn’t work out so hot four years ago.

This all leads to Malcolm going after Sarah, along with his young daughter and an eco activist videographer (Vince Vaughn, fresh off Swingers). As you might expect, it’s not a simple mission and the new island finds plenty of angry dinosaurs while Malcolm and company also must contend with a separate team led by Hammond’s greedy nephew and a hunter (Pete Postlethwaite) whose mission is to bag a T. rex.

With Steven Spielberg returning behind the camera, it’s no surprise that there are cleverly directed action sequences. The most thrilling involves a trailer and slowly breaking glass. Problem is, while the first Jurassic was so influential, World often feels like leftovers. For moviegoers too young to remember the release of Park in 1993, there’s really no way to properly explain just how awe struck it left audiences. We had never seen visuals like it and hearing that T. Rex growling loudly in our eardrums was exhilarating. When that film’s characters gasped at the creatures the first time they saw them, so did we. The Lost World has its fun moments, but the fresh factor is eliminated. Taking Ian Malcolm from an effective supporting player to hero doesn’t always work and his wise cracks might be more plentiful but they’re twice as corny. The other human characters contribute little. Don’t get me wrong – the dinosaurs look friggin sweet and there’s more of them but a better viewing experience it does not make.

By the time we arrive at the climax set in San Diego, the sight of T. Rex terrorizing the city seems like little more than Spielberg’s chance to make a short Godzilla tribute. We see a relic of the past terrorize the city, including a Blockbuster Video, another relic from the past. As Jurassic World is about to premiere, it will be the 1993 version we have in our hearts and minds for comparisons sake. The quality of this sequel is justified as a mixed bag, which explains it having been mostly lost in the world of conversation this week.