Tag: Julia Roberts

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards were unveiled this morning with some surprises and other categories generally going as planned. As expected and as I projected, One Battle After Another (the unquestionable Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture) led the nominations count with 9 followed by Sentimental Value with 8, Sinners with 7, and Hamnet with 6. All of those pics have likely punched their Academy BP ticket.

While it was a good day for them, you can’t say the same for Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, and some others. Overall I went 78 for 92 in my predictions (about par for the course). Let’s walk through each category with the nominees and how I did with some quick commentary.

Motion Picture – Drama

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six with an international flavor as three of the nominees are surefire hopefuls for Best International Feature at the Oscars (Accident, Agent, Value). The winner, however, should come down to Hamnet or Sinners.

Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another

How I Did: 3/6

First things first – Battle is likely going to emerge victorious. As far as the contenders, Jay Kelly missing was a legit shocker and the same could be said for Wicked: For Good. I had them in along with The Testament of Ann Lee instead of Choice and the one-two directorial combo of Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague from Richard Linklater.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. del Toro makes the sextet instead of Josh Safdie, whose Marty Supreme had a less than anticipated showing with 3 nods. Anderson is the favorite though I wouldn’t discount Coogler or Panahi.

Actress – Drama

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

How I Did: 5/6

Victor is in over my somewhat upset pick of Jodie Foster in A Private Life. This is one of the easiest to predict with Buckley.

Actor – Drama

Nominees: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Not as easy to predict as Actress (Drama) with the Oscar heavy hitters in Actor slotted in Musical or Comedy. This could be a close one between Jordan and Moura.

Actress – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six, but this is a tough one to call. Precursors may help with my eventual prediction though I’d say everyone but Hudson at least has a chance here. Byrne is perhaps the soft frontrunner.

Actor – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Byung-hun over Brendan Fraser (Rental Family). Like the Oscars, this could be a supreme battle between Chalamet and DiCaprio with Hawke as potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 5/6

Blunt is one of the genuine shockers as she’s in instead of Supreme‘s Gwyneth Paltrow. This is a tricky category to pinpoint and we’re going to need precursors to help sort it out.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This seems like a race where Value could pick up a trophy with Skarsgård, but both Battle actors are viable.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Another competition where Value is possible though Battle and Sinners might have the edge in that order. I wouldn’t rule out Accident either.

Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Nominees: It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirât, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/6

Rajab gets the call over Sound of Falling as Value could have the best shot, but Accident is a real threat as is Agent.

Motion Picture – Animated

Nominees: Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 5/6

Demon Slayer instead of Ne Zha 2 (which I also incorrectly predicted for Critics Choice). The voters could go with phenom KPop though Rain and Zootopia are in the hunt.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 7/8

This silly little three-year-old category is something the Globes should jettison. After all, Avatar hasn’t even opened and it’s being nominated for its box office achievement? Perhaps Sinners, a truly unanticipated smash hit, takes this. I had Superman up instead of Reckoning.

Original Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which also got a CCA mention) and Sirât contend over my picks of Bugonia and Marty Supreme. I think Sinners is out front with OBAA threatening.

Original Song

Nominees: “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Well, at least Wicked got two songs nominated, eh? “No Place Like Home” and “Train Dreams” are balloted instead of “Drive” from F1 and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners. “Golden” could be just that on Globes night.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, adds up to these movies generating numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Bugonia, KPop Demon Hunters, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, Jay Kelly, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Train Dreams, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Sorry, Baby, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab

I”ll have predictions up for the show shortly before the January 11th telecast and keep an eye on the blog for updated Oscar projections!

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).

In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.

Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Testament of Ann Lee

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Film Screenplay

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Non-English Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

Sound of Falling

Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Scarlet

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

“Drive” from F1

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

KPop Demon Hunters

Sinners

Superman

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Zootopia 2

Alternate – A Minecraft Movie

That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 16th Edition

My first update in two weeks showcases stability in the major races as there’s no changes in Picture, Director, or the four acting races. However, within the categories, there is movement worth noting. Frankenstein is now up to 7th and, for the first time, I would be surprised if it’s not nominated.

The only significant movie not yet seen is Avatar: Fire and Ash. As we await screening word-of-mouth, I still have it in the BP ten at ninth. If it does not end up making the cut (unlike its two predecessors), keep an eye on The Secret Agent. I have it rising to its highest perch in 12th with lead Wagner Moura now third for Best Actor.

On the eve of its Friday premiere, Wicked: For Good slips from 6th to 8th in BP while Ariana Grande continues to top the Supporting Actress rankings. The actual review embargo lifts tomorrow and that could shift Wicked‘s placement in numerous competitions.

You can read all the movement below, including my projection that Netflix’s Train Dreams is on track for an Adapted Screenplay nod (taking out Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery).

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 14) (+2)

13. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Seeds (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Tale of Silyan (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cutting Through Rocks

The Eyes of Ghana

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hedda (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-3)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

A House of Dynamite

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Blue Moon

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Warfare (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 2nd Edition

It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Picture Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.

That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.

Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)

12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)

10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Song Song Blue

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)

2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)

3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)

And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet, Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

1 Nominations

28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?

Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.

Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.

The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.

Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.

While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.

And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.

All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.

Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.

Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.

Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.

When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.

Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.

There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.

Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.

My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.

After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.

The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.

Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.

Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.

My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Nia Long, Michael

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:

2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous

2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park

2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago

2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt

2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter

2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help

2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.

A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.

Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.

Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.

Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.

One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.

So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!

October 24-26 Box Office Predictions

A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Box Office Prediction
Regretting You Box Office Prediction
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc Box Office Prediction

Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.

Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Ends with Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.

As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.

After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.

Here’s how it see it shaking out:

1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

2. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $14 million

3. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

5. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (October 17-19)

Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.

Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.

Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.

One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.

Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.

Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction
Good Fortune Box Office Prediction
After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.

The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.

As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.

Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million

2. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Good Fortune

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. After the Hunt

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 10-12)

Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.

Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.

One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.

I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.

The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.

Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

The busy Luca Guadagnino (who helmed two 2024 releases with Challengers and Queer) is back in multiplexes with After the Hunt. The thriller features Julia Roberts headlining alongside Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg and Chloë Sevigny. An Amazon MGM production, it was unveiled in six venues last weekend with the wide release on October 17th.

Hunt debuted at the Venice Film Festival in late August. Considered by many (including me) to be a major awards player, the Italian screening essentially disabused that notion. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 44% with Metacritic at 51.

Despite its middling critical reaction, it performed impressively in limited fashion with a $26k+ per screen average. However, the coastal performance likely won’t correlate to everything in between. Slated to expand to approximately 1200 screens, lower to mid single digits sounds right.

After the Hunt wide opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million

For my Black Phone 2 prediction, click here:

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Good Fortune prediction, click here:

Good Fortune Box Office Prediction

98th Academy Awards Predictions: October 12th Edition

The New York Film Festival has wrapped up with Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? debuting prior to its December release. Being that his previous two directorial efforts (A Star Is Born, Maestro) were up for BP, Thing was a curious piece to the emerging awards puzzle. The verdict? While some reviews were strong, I don’t think it’s enough to factor into the Oscar conversation with the possible exception of Original Screenplay. You won’t find Will Arnett, Laura Dern or Cooper in my acting possibilities. I do think the film could get attention at the Globes if it’s placed in Musical/Comedy.

This is the time of year where category placements are becoming clearer. Not surprisingly, Paul Mescal is confirmed as a Supporting Actor hopeful for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.

More surprisingly, it was revealed that Chase Infiniti will contend for lead Actress in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had her slotted in Supporting Actress and getting a nomination in that race last week. This upends the dynamic. I absolutely think she could get in the lead derby, but I went back and forth between her, Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) with only two of them making the cut and Seyfried coming out on the short end. The Infiniti announcement also means Regina Hall could join her costar Teyana Taylor in supporting. For now I have Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass joining her Sentimental Value costar Elle Fanning in that group of five. Under a best case scenario, Battle could see six of its performers (Leonardo DiCaprio, Infiniti, Taylor, Hall, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro) up for gold. That would set an Academy record for thespians competing. It might be a long shot, but it is a possibility.

While Another’s chances are plenty, the continued poor box office performance of The Smashing Machine (with around a 70% plummet in weekend #2) confirms my feeling that Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s campaigns are on life support at best. They both drop from my 10 possibilities.

Perhaps the biggest story of the week was New York’s “surprise” screening of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme prior to its December release. Unlike Bradley Cooper’s third picture, Safdie’s inaugural behind the camera production solidified its status as a top five BP contender. Timothée Chalamet, it turns out, appears to deserve the #1 ranking I’ve had him with all along in Best Actor. Much like Battle, Supporting Actress is more confusing. While Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’Zion could see their names called among the quintet (with the former seemingly more realistic), both are far from automatic. I am elevating Safdie back in the directorial five. That’s at the expense of Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value).

In Best Actor, I’m putting Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) in the high five for the first time with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) now on the outside looking in.

And in BP, Bugonia is back in and clinging to the 10 spot with No Other Choice dropping. A note that I came very close to putting Frankenstein in.

You can read all the movement below and that includes Sean Penn rising to 1st in Supporting Actor after Stellan Skarsgård has held that position for many weeks.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+1)

12. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actress)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (moved to lead Actress)

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Is This Thing On? (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)

4. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Seeds (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Librarians (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cutting Through Rocks

The Eyes of Ghana

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Hedda

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Weapons (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+1)

4. F1 (PR: 3) (-1)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Warfare (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Bus

And that equates to these films nabbing these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

11 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Hamnet

7 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Bugonia

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2