Mimi Cave’s Holland premiered at South by Southwest earlier this month as it readies an Amazon Prime drop on March 27th. The tireless Nicole Kidman headlines the Midwestern set thriller (the title refers to the city in Michigan) with Gael Garcia Bernal, Matthew Macfadyen, Jude Hill, and Rachel Sennott in support.
Kidman’s previous project Babygirl did generate awards buzz, but she ended up missing out on a sixth Oscar nod. Holland is drawing plenty of negative notices with 36% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 45 Metacritic. Said to be the opposite of a crowd pleaser, don’t expect this to be on the Academy’s radar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nearly half a century ago, Sidney Lumet’s cinematic adaptation of Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express tracked down six nominations. This included a Supporting Actress victory for Ingrid Bergman.
Kenneth Branagh’s 2017 version of the mystery found decent box office success and a Production Design nom at Critics Choice. Academy voters didn’t honor it anywhere and the same holds true for follow-up Death on the Nile from last year.
The third feature in the series is A Haunting in Venice (out September 15th), based on Christie’s Hallowe’en Party. Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, Michelle Yeoh, and Branagh’s Hercule Poirot make up the cast. With more horror elements than the previous pics, it hopes to scare up decent business. With the review embargo lifted, it holds the best Rotten Tomatoes score among the trio. Orient‘s is 61%, Nile is similar with 62%, and Haunting is posting 81% at this early stage (of course it could go down when more reaction comes in).
That said, Production Design and Costume Design are really the only feasible inclusions. I deduce the Academy will look to others for their final five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kenneth Branagh’s grandly mustachioed master sleuth Hercule Poirot is back in cinemas on September 15th with A Haunting in Venice. Based on Agatha Christie’s 1969 work Hallowe’en Party, this is the third mystery in the franchise that began with Branagh’s 2017 version of Murder on the Orient Express and continued last year with Death on the Nile. In addition to its director/star, the cast includes Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, and current Best Actress winner Michelle Yeoh.
The first trailer for Haunting definitely leaned on the horror elements of its story and not the fact that it’s a continuation of the Express and Nile series. That’s not surprising when you consider that Nile came in well under its predecessor. While the Orient remake made $28 million out of the gate and $102 million overall domestically, the oft delayed Nile only earned $12.9 million for its start and $45 million overall a year and a half ago.
That horror angle might be a smart one for 20th Century Studios, but genre fans might be satiated with The Nun II (out the weekend prior). I do think this manages to top Death though not by much.
A Haunting in Venice opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
It was a frenzied Sunday for awards prognosticators as both the BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards aired. Both can be sturdy forecasters for what Oscar will do. This time around, I did better with the Brits than the stateside reviewers. For BAFTA, I went 15/22 (not bad). As for the Critics… oof. Just 10 for 21. Let’s take a look at both with some commentary below:
BAFTA
What I Got Right:
Film – The Power of the Dog
Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actress – Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Documentary – Summer of Soul
Film Not in the English Language – Drive My Car
Casting – West Side Story
Cinematography – Dune
Costume Design – Cruella
Makeup and Hair – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Original Score – Dune
Production Design – Dune
Sound – Dune
Special Visual Effects – Dune
Outstanding British Film – Belfast
What I Got Wrong:
Actor – Will Smith, King Richard (Predicted: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog)
Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)
Original Screenplay – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: Belfast)
Adapted Screenplay – CODA (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)
Animated Feature – Encanto (Predicted: Flee)
Editing – No Time to Die (Predicted: Dune)
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer – The Harder They Fall (Predicted: Passing)
Critics Choice Awards
What I Got Right:
Picture – The Power of the Dog
Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actor – Will Smith, King Richard
Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog
Foreign Language Film – Drive My Car
Cinematography – The Power of the Dog
Costume Design – Cruella
Score – Dune
Visual Effects – Dune
What I Got Wrong:
Actress – Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: Kristen Stewart, Spencer)
Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)
Original Screenplay – Belfast (Predicted: Licorice Pizza)
Animated Feature – The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Predicted: Encanto)
Comedy – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: The French Dispatch)
Young Actor/Actress – Jude Hill, Belfast (Predicted: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story)
Acting Ensemble – Belfast (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)
Editing – West Side Story (Predicted: Dune)
Hair and Makeup – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: House of Gucci)
Production Design – Dune (Predicted: Nightmare Alley)
Song – “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Predicted: “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up)
Commentary –
Let’s start with the acting races. I would venture to say now that those four categories all have strong frontrunners: Jessica Chastain and Will Smith in lead and Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur in supporting. Smith and DeBose, in particular, appear unbeatable while Chastain and Kotsur are easy odds-on favorites.
Dune should win plenty of the down the line competitions and appears bound to win the most Oscars overall.
The screenplay races are filled with genuine drama. CODA taking Adapted Screenplay over The Power of the Dog at the BAFTAs was a shocker, but it could be a sign of things to come from the Academy (though I wouldn’t wager money on that). Original Screenplay is absolutely a two-horse race between Belfast and Licorice Pizza.
Drive My Car is going to take International Feature Film. Simple as that. Summer of Soul looks to be in solid shape for Doc. And even though The Mitchells vs. the Machines managed to take the critics prize, Disney’s Encanto is probably still out front for the Oscar.
In other down the line derbies, the double victories in Makeup and Hairstyling for The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Cruella in Costume Design make them favorites.
And despite The Power of the Dog not picking up some trophies at both ceremonies, it did so with Picture and Director at both. And it should do so on Oscar night.
That’s all for now! Next week (probably on Wednesday), look for my FINAL Oscar winner predictions!
The 27th Critics Choice Awards air this Sunday evening and they’re another often reliable indicator for who and what may win on Oscar night. As I have with SAG and the Golden Globes, I am giving you my winner predictions along with the runner-up pick.
Let’s get to it and I’ll have a recap up either Sunday evening or Monday!
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Actor
Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Comedy
Nominees:
Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
The French Dispatch
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
The Worst Person in the World
Predicted Winner:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Emilia Jones, CODA
Best Acting Ensemble
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
The Harder They Fall
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Editing
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Predicted Winner:
House of Gucci
Runner-Up:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Nightmare Alley
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Song
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner:
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Runner-Up:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
No Time to Die
That equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers for wins:
6 Wins
The Power of the Dog
3 Wins
Dune
2 Wins
West Side Story
1 Win
Cruella, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Encanto, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Spencer
The Critics Choice Awards, on the same day the Golden Globes did so, announced their nominations for their best of 2021. This is a particularly tricky group to predict and not for just normal reasons like who’s in and who’s out. The critics group seems to fluctuate the number of contenders in a given race year by year. There’s always ten for Best Picture but it can be anywhere from 5-7 on the others (this explains why I projected more nominees than there were in some competitions).
Belfast and West Side Story led the way with 11 nods apiece with Dune and The Power of the Dog close behind with 10. That foursome likely stands as the top quartet in the Oscars derby for the grand prize.
As I did with the Globes, let’s walk through each category and see how I did. FYI – I made predictions for Best Action and Sci-Fi/Horror Movie yesterday, but the critics apparently jettisoned those races. Overall I went 98 for 132.
Best Picture
Nominees: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Tick Tick… Boom!, West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Comments: Only misstep here was having The Tragedy of Macbeth over Boom! For Nightmare Alley, this was a nice bounce back after being completely snubbed by HFPA this morning. The strongest hopeful might be Belfast but it’s no surefire winner.
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story), Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
How I Did: 6/7
Comments: I got all the nominees correct, but I had an extra in there with Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth). Both the critics and the Globes weren’t kind to Macbeth. I don’t see Anderson or del Toro taking this award. The other four are feasible.
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
How I Did: 5/7
Comments: Once again, I pegged 7 individuals but the number was six. Haim scored a nod over my picks of Jodie Comer (The Last Duel) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). This could go four directions in my view – Chastain, Gaga, Kidman, or Stewart.
Best Actor
Nominees: Nicolas Cage (Pig), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick… Boom!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
How I Did: 6/7
Comments: Just like Director, I had the players right and not the number. My extra was Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon, who’s seeing his viability dwindle. Actor is shaping up to a showdown between Cumberbatch and Smith.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Rita Moreno (West Side Story)
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Little surprised that Ruth Negga (Passing) missed with the critics and landed with the Globes. Rita Moreno takes her spot. This is a tough race to call with Balfe and DeBose as soft favorites.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Jamie Dornan (Belfast), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jared Leto (House of Gucci), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: In this wide open group, Smit-McPhee could reign supreme as he’s picking up early critics notices. I had Jon Bernthal (King Richard) and Jason Isaacs (Mass) in over Leto and Simmons.
Best Ensemble
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, The Harder They Fall, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Had CODA and Dune instead of Harder and Pizza. Belfast, Power, and Story all possible with this one.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Picked an extra nominee here too. Ricardos got in over C’Mon C’Mon and Mass. Like the Oscars, this should boil down to Belfast v. Pizza.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Yet another extra nominee situation and I had The Last Duel (which came up empty-handed) and Macbeth instead of Dune. This race should go to the Dog.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: After its Globes snub, Mitchells factors in here. I had Belle as opposed to Raya (which had a good morning with HFPA and this). Encanto or Flee are the two probable takers.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Drive My Car, Flee, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Had an extra selection with Titane (which didn’t score with Globes either). A Hero could win, but Car is coming up strong.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
How I Did: 6/6
Comments: Finally got one totally right! Dune v. Dog is the expectation.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Alley continued its better than expected showing to the detriment of Cyrano and The French Dispatch. This one could go to Cruella.
Best Editing
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Pizza over my picks of Don’t Look Up and King Richard. This could be a Dune trophy or West Side Story.
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley
How I Did: 4/5
Comments: Alley over Spencer (which had a subpar day). Gucci could fashion a victory.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 3/6
Comments: Didn’t pick Belfast or Dispatch. Incorrectly called Cyrano, Last Duel, and Macbeth. I expect this to be between Dune and Alley.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Don’t Look Up, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Spencer
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: Didn’t have Don’t Look Up. Did have Dispatch and Macbeth. This goes to either Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Be Alive” from King Richard, “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall, “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up, “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die”
How I Did: 4/6
Comments: “Guns” gets in over “Beyond the Shore” from CODA and (somewhat surprisingly) “Down to Joy” from Belfast. “Alive” and Beyonce could reign supreme.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, The Matrix Resurrections, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
How I Did: 2/7
Comments: Yikes. Where to begin? Only had Dune and Shang-Chi correct. I didn’t think Matrix had screened so therefore it was left off. There were seven nominees last year, but only five in 2021. The five I wrongly called were Don’t Look Up, Eternals, Finch, Free Guy, and Godzilla vs. Kong.
Best Comedy Movie
Nominees: Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Don’t Look Up, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 5/6
Comments: Got ’em all but had an extra with Red Rocket. Thinking Pizza sounds good in this one.
Best Young Performer
Nominees: Jude Hill (Belfast), Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Saniyya Sidney (King Richard), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story)
How I Did: 6/6
Comments: Ending on a high note! I’ll say Zegler, but don’t discount Hill.
That means these films achieved these numbers of nods:
11 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
10 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
4 Nominations
CODA, House of Gucci
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The French Dispatch, The Harder They Fall, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spencer, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
1 Nomination
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Drive My Car, Free Guy, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, Mass, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Pig, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Worst Person in the World
I’ll have final predictions for this show shortly before its airing on January 9th!
As if the Golden Globe nominations coming tomorrow morning weren’t confusing enough to figure out, we also have the nods on the same day for the Critics Choice Awards. They’re frequently a reliable indicator of which way the Academy could go. However, there’s a caveat. While both branches choose ten pictures, the other races can fluctuate between 5-7 nominees. Generally Director and the lead acting races are seven while supporting and the screenplay derbies are six. The rest are a rather (needlessly unpredictable) mix. This show also contains some categories not seen in others like Best Ensemble, action, comedy, and sci-fi/horror pics, and Young Performer.
Here’s my best shot at projecting what the critics will do. The ceremony itself hits January 9th… the same day as the Globes. And as I did with the Globes, I’ll name runners-up and second alternates…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Last Duel
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jason Isaacs, Mass
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Best Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
C’Mon C’Mon
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Mass
Runner-Up: Being the Ricardos
Second Alternate: The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
The Last Duel
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Dune
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
Belle
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon
Second Alternate: The Summit of the Gods
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
Titane
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: I’m Your Man
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Spencer
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Makeup
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Spencer
Runner-Up: The Last Duel
Second Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Cyrano
Dune
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: The French Dispatch
Second Alternate: Belfast
Best Score
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Every Letter” from Cyrano
Second Alternate: “Here I Am” from Respect
Best Visual Effects (note that it is unlikely that The Matrix Resurrections or Spider-Man: No Way Home screened in time for inclusion)
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Eternals
Finch
Free Guy
Godzilla vs. Kong
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: The Green Knight
Second Alternate: The Suicide Squad
Best Action Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
The Harder They Fall
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Nobody
Second Alternate: Eternals
Best Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Red Rocket
Runner-Up: Cruella
Second Alternate: Zola
Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie
Predicted Nominees:
Candyman
Dune
Finch
Free Guy
A Quiet Place Part II
Runner-Up: The Suicide Squad
Second Alternate: Titane
Best Young Performer
Predicted Nominees:
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Jude Hill, Belfast
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Demi Singleton, King Richard
This list means I’m projecting the following number of nominations for these movies:
12 Nominations
Dune
11 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
10 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
King Richard
7 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth
6 Nominations
CODA
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cyrano, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mass, Spencer
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
1 Nomination
Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Being the Ricardos, Belle, Black Widow, Candyman, Drive My Car, Eternals, Finch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, The Harder They Fall, A Hero, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Pig, A Quiet Place Part II, Red Rocket, The Suicide Squad, Tick Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Reaction (along with that for the Globes) up tomorrow!
Ten days makes a heckuva difference this time around for my Oscar predictions as there are updates in every major category expect Director! The biggest story: Being the Ricardos has established itself as a contender in numerous races based on initial screenings. We also have the rise of C’Mon C’Mon. These two pics have entered my ten Best Picture hopefuls and that’s to the detriment of Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Additionally:
Nicole Kidman’s portrayal of Lucille Ball in Ricardos vaults 8 spots to #2 in Best Actress. Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) drops from the forecasted five.
Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) is back in Best Actor and that displaces Peter Dinklage (Cyrano).
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) hits the 5 spot in Supporting Actress and that takes out Ruth Negga (Passing).
I’ve replaced Jamie Dornan in Belfast with his costar Ciaran Hinds in Supporting Actor.
In the screenplay race, Ricardos is in and King Richard is out in Original. For Adapted – Dune gets in over Macbeth.
We also have movement in the top spots. In the wide open Supporting Actor derby, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) jumps 4 spots to #1. Licorice Pizza replaces Belfast for first in Original Screenplay.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-2)
12. CODA (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Spencer (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Flee (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Mass (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tick, Tick… Boom!
House of Gucci
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alan Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Parallel Mothers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. CODA (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1_
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)
10. Charlotte (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Titane (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Great Freedom
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Procession (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 7) (E)
8. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ailey (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+4)
7. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cruella (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Belfast
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 2) (-2)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Guns Go Bang’ from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Belfast (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Eternals (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Finch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following in terms of movies nabbing these numbers with their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
4 Nominations
King Richard, Spencer
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, Flee, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
My Oscar predictions in all feature film categories are updated and there’s movement to discuss! There’s been a change in my ten Best Picture nominees for the first time in several weeks as House of Gucci has fallen and I’m putting Don’t Look Up in. The social media reaction to Gucci has resulted in it dropping for multiple categories. I still have Lady Gaga garnering an Actress nod (though she drops from 2nd to 4th) as well as Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling.
In other developments:
Andrew Garfield vaults from 6th to 3rd in Best Actor for Tick, Tick… Boom! That’s to the detriment of Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon
Two changes in the ever evolving Supporting Actor derby with Jason Isaacs (Mass) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) making the cut and displacing Jared Leto (Gucci) and Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is on the outside looking in for Supporting Actress with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) rising
Don’t Look Up also enters Original Screenplay with Mass falling out of the top five
You can read all the updates right here!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Flee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 14) (+2)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-5)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mass (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jude Hill, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Passing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Who Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Charlotte (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vivo
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-2)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Procession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belfast (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Power of the Dog
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Eternals (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Spider-Man: Far From Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Spencer
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, House of Gucci
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Kenneth Branagh has had a varied directorial output over the last three decades plus from his Shakespearian works (Henry V, Much Ado About Nothing, Hamlet) to franchise entries (Thor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit) to adaptations of beloved novels like Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein and Murder on the Orient Express. His latest is Belfast and the coming-of-age tale (which Branagh also wrote) is said to be his most personal pic as it focuses on a young boy growing up in Northern Island during the 1960s. The black and white drama is also a serious Oscar contender and it’s currently the frontrunner for Best Picture. Newcomer Jude Hill stars with a supporting cast (who could all be Academy nominated) featuring Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, and Ciaran Hinds.
The Academy hopeful hits 600 screens on November 12th with plans for a lengthy play over the awards season. The Oscar buzz should get it off to a solid start on the relatively low number of screens. Assuming a per screen average in the $4000-4500 range, we could be talking $2-3 million as it’s likely to perform steadily over the next several weeks.
Belfast opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
For my Clifford the Big Red Dog prediction (which is not the Best Picture frontrunner), click here:
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