Tag: Joy Ride

29th Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the more reliable precursors when it comes to movies and actors who might receive Oscar nominations. Hopefuls will hear their names called tomorrow for the 29th annual ceremony.

This show can sometimes be unpredictable with how many nominees there will be in each race. Last year there were 11 in Picture, 10 in Director, and 6 for others. I’ll project 10 in Pic and Director and go with six in the remainder of the derbies (and an alternate), but don’t be surprised if they alter the formula.

Let’s get to it!

Picture

American Fiction

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

May December

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Color Purple

Director

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Todd Haynes, May December

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Alternate: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Natalie Portman, May December

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Alternate: Colman Domingo, Rustin

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Julianne Moore, May December

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate: John Magaro, Past Lives

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

Alternate: Maestro

Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Foreign Language Film

Anatomy of a Fall

Monster

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Taste of Things

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Fallen Leaves

Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Alternate: Wish

Cinematography

The Killer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Costume Design

Barbie

Chevalier

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: Oppenheimer

Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Alternate: The Holdovers

Makeup

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Maestro

Nyad

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

Alternate: Oppenheimer

Production Design

Asteroid City

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: Maestro

Score

Elemental

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: The Boy and the Heron

Song

“Dance the Night” from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“This Wish” from Wish

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Visual Effects

The Creator

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: Napoleon

Ensemble

Air

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

Alternate: The Color Purple

Comedy

American Fiction

Asteroid City

Barbie

Joy Ride

The Holdovers

No Hard Feelings

Alternate: Bottoms

Young Actor/Actress

Joe Bird, Talk to Me

Andrew Barth Feldman, No Hard Feelings

Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie

Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall

Violet McGraw, M3GAN

Alternate: Iman Vellani, The Marvels

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Barbie, Poor Things

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

7 Nominations

Maestro, Past Lives

6 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

5 Nominations

May December

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

3 Nominations

The Color Purple, Saltburn

2 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, No Hard Feelings, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

1 Nomination

Air, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Ferrari, Godzilla Minus One, Joy Ride, The Killer, M3GAN, Monster, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Talk to Me, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish

July 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Tom Cruise hopes to follow up the biggest hit of his career with a franchise best opening for the signature franchise as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opens on Wednesday. It is the only newcomer out and you can peruse detailed prediction post on it here:

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Box Office Prediction

Cruise’s star power is the highest it’s been in years coming off the nearly billion and a half plus earning Top Gun: Maverick from last summer. In order to post the largest start among the seven missions, Reckoning will need to top the $61 million made by predecessor Fallout in 2018. I’m projecting it will do so with over $10 million to spare and bring in over $100 million when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers.

The real battle should be for second place. Coming off a surprise victory, Insidious: The Red Door should experience the heftiest decline (mid 60s) of the top five. This might cause a drop of 1st to 4th if Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny falls in the 50-55% range.

Sound of Freedom, the thriller from upstart Angel Studios, was the real story of the previous frame (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, it should have the smallest decline other than Elemental in fifth position. If the dip is lower than my estimated 40%, it might just manage to rise from third to second. I’ll give Indy the slight edge. However, it might be worth keeping an eye on daily grosses throughout the week.

Here’s how I see the high five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

3. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Insidious: The Red Door

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (July 7-9)

As mentioned, horror fans were ready for scares as Insidious: The Red Door opened impressively. The fifth pic in the series which started in 2010 posted the second highest debut behind #2 in 2013 with $33 million. That’s beyond my $25.2 million prediction as the Sony/Blumhouse production has already doubled its reported $16 million budget.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was second in weekend #2 after its lackluster beginning. Sliding 55%, the $27.4 million gross was on pace with my $28 million take. The fifth go-round in this franchise is at $122 million after ten disappointing days for Disney.

The aforementioned Sound of Freedom employed shrewd marketing tactics that included a pay it forward method where viewers could purchase tickets for others. Jim Caviezel’s tale of taking on human traffickers reached its intended conservative and faith-based crowd and then some. The Friday to Sunday haul was $19.6 million for third place, easily outpacing my $12.5 million estimate. Since its unveiling on Tuesday, July 4th, the total is $41 million. Needless to say, Angel Studios has established itself as a player in the box office game.

Elemental was fourth with $10 million, ahead of my $8 million projection. Pixar’s latest finally crossed the century mark at $109 million.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $7.8 million) for $357 million overall.

Finally, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride stalled. It was sixth with just $5.8 million compared to my $8.4 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 7-9 Box Office Predictions

After a subpar start, Harrison Ford’s fifth go-round as the iconic fedora clad archaeologist hopes to repeat at #1. The fifth edition of a horror franchise could disrupt that as Insidious: The Red Door swings in. We also have the critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride and action pic Sound of Freedom from upstart Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction
Joy Ride Box Office Prediction
Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction

After a lackluster haul (more on that below), Dr. Jones and company might see a sophomore drop in the low 50s. While the B+ Cinemascore grade exceeds the B that crowds gave predecessor Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, it still indicates middling enthusiasm moving forward. My high 20s take does mean a repeat performance atop the charts.

That’s because I have Insidious: The Red Door in the mid 20s. While that’s under the $29 million that The Last Key opened with in 2018, it is still a fine result for the 13-year-old franchise.

The weekend’s wild card is Sound of Freedom. Jim Caviezel’s turn as a vigilante taking on human traffickers is being championed by faith-based and conservative groups. This resulted in a terrific $14 million bounty when it started on July 4th. How it legs out is anyone’s guess and I’m going with a low double digits Friday-Sunday number. That would put it solidly in third.

As for Joy Ride, critics are being kind and the studio is hoping for a Crazy Rich Asians style sleeper hit. The hard R rating could prevent that and my sub $10 million projection puts it in fourth just ahead of animated holdovers Elemental and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

And with that, here’s how I foresee the top 6 shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $28 million

2. Insidious: The Red Door

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million

3. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

4. Joy Ride

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)

Considering Crystal Skull in 2008 made off with $100 million for its Friday to Sunday portion of a holiday weekend, the $60.3 million for Dial of Destiny is a major letdown for Disney. I wasn’t much more generous at $65.3 million. When it premiered in Cannes over a month ago, its mediocre reaction set the table for a disappointing gross. Perhaps more importantly is that it didn’t play for younger audiences whose reverence for the series isn’t matched by the 40 and up crowd.

Disney/Pixar’s Elemental, after a troubling start, continued to level off nicely in weekend #3. It was second with $12.1 million, in line with my $12.7 million prediction for a three-week $89 million tally.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $12 million compared to my $13.5 million estimate. The Sony juggernaut has amassed $340 million.

Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings was fourth with $7.8 million (I went higher at $89 million). The ten-day take is $29 million which is fairly decent for a genre that’s struggled in recent times.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The total is $136 million.

Finally, DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken was a major flop in sixth with only $5.5 million. I was kinder at $7.8 million. With serious kiddie competition, parents opted for leftovers like Elemental and Spidey.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Joy Ride

Between No Hard Feelings and this Friday’s Joy Ride, the raunchy comedy is back in multiplexes for the summer of 2023. The latter centers on four women (Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu, Sabrina Wu) on an international road trip. Costars include Ronny Chieng, Lori Tann Chinn, David Denman, and Annie Mumolo. Adele Lim makes her directorial debut. She’s best known for cowriting 2018’s Crazy Rich Asians (which the Academy surprisingly completely ignored) and Disney’s 2021 animated pic Raya and the Last Dragon (which nabbed an Animated Feature nomination).

Since its premiere back in March at South by Southwest, buzz for Ride has been glowing. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is parked at 97% as the Lionsgate release hopes to have sleeper potential at the box office. Its awards prospects could be tied to that. If it achieves a high profile, perhaps an Original Screenplay nod is doable. I will note, however, that this genre is not exactly a favorite of the voters.

A more likely scenario is the Golden Globes taking notice in the Musical/Comedy race where Crazy Rich Asians did compete. It could be a reach, but the reviews are there for it to occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Joy Ride Box Office Prediction

Adele Kim, best known for cowriting 2018’s smash surprise hit Crazy Rich Asians, makes her directorial debut with Joy Ride on July 7th. The raunchy comedy, which premiered at South by Southwest to impressive reviews, stars Ashley Park, Sherry Cola, recent Oscar nominee Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Sabrina Wu, Ronny Chieng, Annie Mumolo, David Denman, and Lori Tan Chinn.

The road trip pic is another hard R laugher in a genre underrepresented in recent years. There’s been a bit of a comeback this summer as it follows No Hard Feelings by two weeks and precedes August’s Strays.

With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this could manage to ride its festival buzz to a debut above $10 million. I’m going say it falls just short.

Joy Ride opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million

For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:

Insidious: The Red Door Box Office Prediction

For my Sound of Freedom prediction, click here:

Sound of Freedom Box Office Prediction