Oscar Predictions: Atlas

A cloud of subpar reviews hangs over Atlas, a sci-fi thriller about AI that begins streaming on Netflix this weekend. Jennifer Lopez headlines with Simu Liu, Sterling K. Brown (fresh off his first Oscar nod for American Fiction), and Mark Strong costarring. Brad Peyton, best known for the Dwayne Johnson trilogy of Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, San Andreas, and Rampage, directs.

Critical reaction to this is far from rock solid with a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 18%. The only awards play to be considered would be its Visual Effects and they are being commended more than other aspects. I doubt it ultimately contends in that competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Rampage Box Office Prediction

Pairing Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson with a bunch of CG animals in an adventure flick? If that sounds like a recipe for box office success, that’s because Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle became Sony’s biggest hit at the end of 2017. And next weekend’s Rampage (while it won’t approach the numbers of that franchise follow-up) looks poised to bring in generous earnings.

The Warner Bros release is based loosely on the 1980s video game. It marks Johnson’s third collaboration with director Brad Peyton following Journey: The Mysterious Island and San Andreas. Both of those titles managed to top the century mark ($103 million and $155 million respectively) and this should do the same. Costars include Naomie Harris, Malin Ackerman, Joe Manganiello, Jake Lacy, and Jeffrey Dean Morgan. Perhaps more importantly, other costars are giant gorillas, wolf’s, and alligators.

The question is whether Rampage falls more in line with $27 million debut of Journey 2 or the $54 million accomplished by Andreas. The former seems a bit low to me while the latter is high. I’ll project a mid to possibly high 30s opening is more the ticket.

Rampage opening weekend prediction: $36.6 million

For my Truth or Dare prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/truth-or-dare-box-office-prediction/

San Andreas Box Office Prediction

The disaster flick that was popularized so effectively in the 1970s returns in summer 2015 with San Andreas, opening Friday. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, fresh off megahit Furious 7, stars in a reunion with his Journey 2: The Mysterious Island director Brad Peyton. Carla Gugino and Paul Giamatti costar. The $100 million budgeted pic will attempt to break out in a season where most action fare is sequels and reboots.

It could work. The trailers and TV spots have at the least indicated that the budget is up there on the screen. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that Johnson has been omnipresent in front of moviegoers with the enormous Furious franchise.

As I see it, a debut above $40 million would be a win for Warner Bros. International grosses should be solid as well. I think San Andreas will just manage to top that number and will look to top the box office frame during May’s final weekend.

San Andreas opening weekend prediction: $43.4 million

For my Aloha prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/23/aloha-box-office-prediction/