Tag: josh brolin

Oscar Predictions: The Running Man

The Running Man is tracking to open atop the box office this weekend with Glen Powell in the title role. The futuristic action thriller remakes the 1987 original starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, itself was based on a 1982 Stephen King novel. Edgar Wright directs with a supporting cast including William H. Macy, Lee Pace, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, Jayme Lawson, Colman Domingo, and Josh Brolin.

Reviews aren’t as encouraging as what greeted last weekend’s Predator: Badlands (another effort with roots in Ah-nuld 80s releases). Rotten Tomatoes is at 66% with 59 on Metacritic. Like Badlands, the only awards race worth mentioning for Running is Visual Effects. Nothing from the early reaction indicates it has any realistic shot at contending there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Running Man Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have seemingly stalled momentum

Paramount hopes audiences are game for The Running Man when it debuts November 14th. The sci-fi action flick casts Glen Powell in a role that Arnold Schwarzenegger played in the 1987 original. Based on a Stephen King novel, costars include Josh Brolin, Colman Domingo, Lee Pace, Jayme Lawson, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, and William H. Macy. Edgar Wright directs. This is the second 2025 adaptation of a dystopian tale written under King’s pseudonym Richard Bachman behind The Long Walk.

Following Predator: Badlands by a week (another Ah-nuld adjacent release), Running hopes to pick up speed based on Powell’s star power and decent early word-of-mouth. The original isn’t exactly considered a classic, but it has a solid cult B-movie reputation. I don’t think this reaches near $40 million like Badlands. Low to mid 20s seems more likely.

The Running Man opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million

For my Now You See Me: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction

For my Keeper prediction, click here:

Keeper Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

With Daniel Craig anchoring for the third time as eccentric sleuth Benoit Blanc, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery continues the mystery franchise. It premiered at the Toronto Film Festival with a limited theatrical engagement slated for November 26th and Netflix release on December 12th. Rian Johnson returns as writer/director with the considerable supporting cast including Josh O’Connor, Glenn Close, Josh Brolin, Mila Kunis, Jeremy Renner, Kerry Washington, Andrew Scott, Cailee Spaeny, Daryl McCormack, and Thomas Haden Church.

2019’s Knives Out was up for Original Screenplay and 2022 follow-up Glass Onion vied for Adapted Screenplay. They respectively lost to Parasite and Women Talking. Several critics in Canada are making the case that Wake is the strongest overall of the three pictures. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 82. It’s probably a safe bet that it’ll make the cut in Adapted Screenplay at the 98th ceremony. As for the cast, O’Connor and Close are being labeled as best in show. I’d say the latter, due to her infamous history of being nominated and not winning, stands a better chance with the Academy. Don’t be surprised if the sole nom for this is in its writing race.

The Golden Globes should should offer different opportunities. Both predecessors were nominated for Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy – with the original falling short to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Banshees of Inisherin taking the prize over Glass. Craig was nominated for Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy for both. It was Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Inisherin‘s Colin Farrell hearing their names called instead. I would suspect Craig will get in again (as will the film) and hope the third time is the charm. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Weapons

In 2022, Zach Cregger impressed critics and horror fans alike with Barbarian. He seems to have repeated that success with Weapons, out Friday. Focused on a mystery surrounding 17 missing children, Josh Brolin and Julia Garner star. The supporting cast includes Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic (the latter score right in line with Barbarian), Weapons aims to be an August sleeper hit. This is a genre that struggles to generate awards attention. That should hold true here, though I’ll note several reviewers are praising Cregger’s script. Original Screenplay, however, is likely to be too crowded for Weapons to contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Weapons Box Office Prediction

After receiving critical kudos and impressive box office numbers for his solo directorial debut Barbarian in 2022, Zach Cregger’s follow-up Weapons is unloaded on August 8th. The horror mystery about a group of kids vanishing into the night stars Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (currently surfing multiplexes in The Fantastic Four: First Steps). Supporting players include Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.

Effective trailers, appreciation for Barbarian, and early reviews (100% on RT currently) have caused genre fans to circle Weapons on their viewing calendar. While Cregger’s first scary movie started off with $10 million, his second is expected to double that figure and then some. Some estimates even have this getting to $30M+. I’ll be a bit more conservative and go high 20s.

Weapons opening weekend prediction: $28.8 million

For my Freakier Friday prediction, click here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction

For my Sketch prediction, click here:

Sketch Box Office Prediction

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.

At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.

I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.

Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million

Oscar Predictions – Dune: Part Two

In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.

The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.

Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.

Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.

Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Dune Review

Denis Villeneuve’s Dune arrives nearly three decades after David Lynch’s oft criticized version of Frank Herbert’s mid 60s sci-fi novel. It is source material that I’m frankly not familiar with so take that for what it’s worth. With the director of Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 at the controls, this is a technically masterful and consistently stunning looking experience. I also must admit that I didn’t get swept up in it no matter how amazing the desert landscapes appear (and do they ever).

Set 10,000 years in the future, the dense plot (as in often hard to follow) introduces us to the royal family of Caladan. Duke Leto (Oscar Isaac) is the leader of House Atreides, a land with a plentiful supply of water and bagpipes. His concubine is Lady Jessica (Rebecca Ferguson) who possesses the powers of Bene Gesserit, a sisterhood of mystical beings thought to bear children with God-like abilities. Their offspring is Paul (Timothee Chalamet). One problem: the Lady was supposed to have a girl who eventually delivers this story’s version of The One, but she skipped a step.

The Atreides are ordered by Empirical decree to take over Arrakis, a planet with hardly any water (I’m uncertain about bagpipes). However, it is the only land with spice and that substances serves many purposes. First, it gets you high and gives one visions that might play into the plot later. Most importantly, it fuels interstellar travel and is therefore an extraordinarily valuable commodity. It’s what Gollum would be droning on endlessly about if this were another epic adventure. House Harkonnen and their rotund ruler (Stellan Skarsgard), the current Arrakis deed holders, are not going to give up those property rights without a fight.

We sense where all this is heading due to Paul’s visions of Chani (Zendaya). She’s a native of Arrakis and their citizens called the Fremen have learned to use their planet’s sandy and almost unlivable terrain to their advantage. They will need to accept Paul as their captain and that development… will or won’t happen in part two. Yes, part one is a subtitle here. Like some Marvel products that preceded this, you may find yourself realizing that not a lot really happens in this origin tale by the time two and a half hours has lapsed.

I recognize this may sound like sacrilege to the book’s devotees. There is plenty to praise in this immensely gifted director’s adaptation. The cast is uniformly top notch from Chalamet on down (FYI – Zendaya is a part II kinda thing because her participation is limited). Ferguson is perhaps the standout in a sprawling ensemble that includes Josh Brolin (as a trusted Atreides warrior), Javier Bardem (as a Fremen warrior), and Charlotte Rampling as a Reverend Mother of the Bene Gesserit.

Dune worshipers forgive me. While I spent time marveling at the look and anticipating the unearthing of giant sandworms, I would put this behind Arrival and the Blade Runner follow-up without hesitation. Saying it feels like half a movie is easy criticism. That doesn’t mean it’s not true. It is tempting to recommend Dune based on spectacular work of composer Hans Zimmer and cinematographer Greig Fraser and the sound and visual effects artists. Yet I often found myself a bit shocked by my lack of awe in the story itself.

**1/2 (out of four)

Summer 2012: The Top 10 Hits and More

My look back at the cinematic summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago culminates with 2012. A decade ago, the Marvel Cinematic Universe went from a successful franchise to the phenomenal juggernaut that it remains today. That’s due to the release of a little something called The Avengers. On a side note, it’s worth mentioning that the biggest grosser 30 years ago (Batman Returns), two decades ago (Spider-Man), and in this post all share comic book roots.

Before we get to Iron Man and company, I’ll recount the other features in the top ten moneymakers before covering additional notable titles and some flops. If you missed my write-ups about the seasons of 1992 and 2002, you can find them here:

Summer 1992: The Top 10 Hits and More

Summer 2002: The Top 10 Hits and More

10. Prometheus

Domestic Gross: $126 million

Some three decades after Alien terrified audiences, Ridley Scott returned to the franchise. However, this was more of a mixed bag in terms of critical and audience reaction. The production design and Michael Fassbender’s performance were praised while the script drew its share of critics. Nevertheless Scott would be back in the mix five years later with Alien: Covenant. 

9. Snow White and the Huntsman 

Domestic Gross: $155 million

Hot off the Twilight franchise and hot off playing Thor in The Avengers, Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth battled Prometheus costar Charlize Theron’s evil stepmom in this fantasy adventure. Reviews were so-so but it performed well enough to warrant a less appreciated prequel The Huntsman: Winter’s War in 2016.

8. Ice Age: Continental Drift 

Domestic Gross: $161 million

The fourth entry in the animated franchise featuring the vocal stylings of Ray Romano and John Leguizamo kept the grosses hot. Sequel Collision Course would follow four years later.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zocutif0cQY

7. Men in Black 3

Domestic Gross: $179 million

The third teaming of Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones (with Josh Brolin playing a convincing younger version of him) earned $11 million less than 2002’s part II. That sequel made less than the 1997 original. The series was revamped in 2019 with Men in Black: International with none other than Chris Hemsworth, but audiences tuned out.

6. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted

Domestic Gross: $216 million

Ben Stiller and Chris Rock returned for the third time voicing their respective lion and zebra. Spin-off Penguins of Madagascar came out two years later while a proper fourth entry never materialized from DreamWorks.

5. Ted

Domestic Gross: $218 million

Moving from Fox’s hugely successful animated sitcom Family Guy the big screen, Seth MacFarlane’s story of Mark Wahlberg and his crude talking bear Ted was the breakout comedy of the season. Follow-ups A Million Ways to Die in the West and the Ted sequel were not as well received.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc84pYZICbk

4. Brave

Domestic Gross: $237 million

The first Pixar film led by a female hero is also the inaugural studio entry (co)directed by a woman. It would go on to win Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

3. The Amazing Spider-Man

Domestic Gross: $262 million

After not moving forward with a fourth title directed by Sam Raimi and starring Tobey Maguire, the Spidey franchise was rebooted with Marc Webb behind the camera and Andrew Garfield donning the red. The dollars followed although reviews were mixed and a 2014 sequel was widely considered a disappointment.

2. The Dark Knight Rises

Domestic Gross: $448 million

While perhaps not quite reaching the heights of 2008’s The Dark Knight, the culmination to Christopher Nolan’s trilogy sent Christian Bale’s Caped Crusader off in stirring fashion and with hugely profitable earnings.

1. The Avengers

Domestic Gross: $623 million

Setting record after record upon release, the melding of Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk, Black Widow, and Hawkeye transfixed filmgoers. It’s been Marvel’s world and we’ve been living in it ever since.

And now for some other pics worthy of discussion:

Magic Mike

Domestic Gross: $113 million

Steven Soderbergh’s saga of male exotic dancers was based loosely on Channing Tatum’s real life experiences. It turned him into a superstar while giving Matthew McConaughey a memorable showcase. The micro budgeted pic (a reported $7 million) spawned a 2015 sequel and there’s a third scheduled to hit HBO Max next year.

The Bourne Legacy

Domestic Gross: $113 million

Audiences weren’t clamoring for Jeremy Renner to replace Matt Damon in this franchise, but the stateside and overseas grosses were still pretty acceptable. That said, Renner’s tenure lasted this pic and this pic only.

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Domestic Gross: $46 million

While it performed even better overseas, this British import with Judi Dench  was a sleeper hit stateside that begat a 2015 sequel.

Moonrise Kingdom 

Domestic Gross: $45 million

Wes Anderson scored with critics and crowds with this coming-of-age dramedy that premiered at Cannes and then found an audience in the weeks that followed.

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Domestic Gross: $12 million

This indie drama from Benh Zeitlin was truly a little movie that could. Shot for under $2 million, it eventually nabbed Oscar nods for Picture, Director, Actress (Quvanzhane Wallis at age 9), and Adapted Screenplay.

They’re not all winners so let’s get into some critical and/or commercial failures from the period:

Dark Shadows

Domestic Gross: $79 million

Johnny Depp’s box office happy days were beginning to fade as his 8th collaboration with Tim Burton was perhaps the least memorable. This horror comedy failed to enlighten viewers.

Battleship

Domestic Gross: $65 million

Action fans weren’t taken with this Peter Berg directed board game adaptation starring Liam Neeson and Rihanna with a bloated budget of over $200 million.

Total Recall

Domestic Gross: $58 million

And your action sci-fi fans weren’t signing up for Colin Farrell taking over for Arnold Schwarzenegger in this unneeded remake.

Rock of Ages

Domestic Gross: $38 million

Based on the Broadway musical, there was a deaf ear turned to this adaptation despite Tom Cruise getting solid notices for his performance. Lucky for him, he’d rule this current summer with Top Gun: Maverick. 

That’s My Boy

Domestic Gross: $36 million

Adam Sandler and Andy Samberg’s comedic partnership drew a 20% Tomatoes meter and ambivalence from usually devoted Sandler fans.

The Watch

Domestic Gross: $35 million

That wasn’t the only high-profile comedic flop as this sci-fi mashup with Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, and Jonah Hill fared even worse in numbers and rotten reviews (17% RT).

And that’ll close it out, ladies and gents! It’s been a pleasure revising these cinematic seasons of days past.

Dune Box Office Prediction

Coming nearly a year after its anticipated arrival, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune is out in theaters and HBO Max on October 22. The sci-fi epic, with a budget of at least $165 million, comes with high hopes from Warner Bros (so much so that Part One follows its title). Based on Frank Herbert’s 1965 novel (beloved by genre fans), this is its second adaptation behind the 1984 version helmed by David Lynch. Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 maker Villeneuve employs a sprawling cast including Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Zendaya, Stellan Skarsgard, Dave Bautista, Jason Momoa, and Javier Bardem.

Critical reaction is mostly strong as it stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes. Dune is expected to contend for numerous Oscars including Picture and Director and multiple tech races. It could easily lead next year’s ceremony in terms of nominations. Reviews all seem to agree on one item: that it’s meant to be watched on the big screen. The studio has still stuck to its 2021 strategy of simultaneously premiering their product in multiplexes and HBO’s streaming service.

Sci-fi fans have been breathlessly awaiting Dune for years. This is nothing new to Villeneuve as the same could be said for 2017’s Blade Runner follow-up. However, it debuted to a disappointing $32.7 million and failed to reach $100 million domestically (despite similarly solid reviews).

Could the same fate await Dune? That’s definitely a possibility. Beyond its core audience (which is fairly sizable), this could struggle to find a younger crowd. We have seen this year that they are the driving force for pleasing returns in the COVID era market.

If No Time to Die could manage just $55 million and with the inevitability that some fans will opt for home viewing, I have a tough time envisioning Dune majorly surpassing expectations. That’s about $40 million and I do believe the decent buzz and event picture status should put it right in that range of mid 30s for the floor and high 40s (maybe even $50 million) for the ceiling.

Dune opening weekend prediction: $42.8 million

For my Ron’s Gone Wrong prediction, click here:

Ron’s Gone Wrong Box Office Prediction