The Fault in Our Stars director Josh Boone is back in the romantic drama genre with Regretting You on October 24th. Adapting Colleen Hoover’s 2019 novel, the Paramount release stars Allison Williams, Mckenna Grace, Dave Franco, Mason Thames, Willa Fitzgerald, Scott Eastwood, and Clancy Brown.
The studio is hoping that Hoover’s readers come out in droves like they did last year with It Ends with Us. That Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni team-up (and it’s safe to say the last one) began with a sizzling $50 million. Regretting isn’t expected to get anywhere near that. If this reached $20 million out of the gate, that would be a massive win.
Tracking has it in the low to mid teens and that sounds right.
Regretting You opening weekend prediction: $14 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
***Blogger’s Update (08/27): On the eve of its premiere, I am increasing my prediction for The New Mutants from $4.9 million to $6.9 million.
The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the release dates for scores of high profile feature films over the past several months. Yet in the case of The New Mutants, its series of delays has become a punchline in Hollywood that far preceded current world events. The film is the latest in the X-Men franchise and it seems 20th Century Fox has absolutely no confidence with it. It’s finally hitting screens after an original planned unveiling in (get this!) April 2018.
Mutants introduces new characters to the X-Men fold in what was originally planned as a potential trilogy. Josh Boone, best known for making The Fault in Our Stars, directs. The cast includes Maisie Williams, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Heaton, Alice Braga, Blu Hunt, and Henry Zaga. Marketed more as a horror flick than comic book adaptation, reports out over the past two years indicate that its studio were not pleased with the final product.
After getting bumped from the spring of 2018, this was pushed to February 2019 and then August 2019 and then April 2020 (this was all during Disney’s acquisition of Fox). After the COVID situation hit, Disney/Fox finally settled on the late August output. Mutants will be closely watched as it is the second American theatrical wide release after Unhinged.
Prior to COVID, the prospects for Mutants seemed doomed and that hasn’t changed. The X-Men franchise hit a low point in 2019 with Dark Phoenix. Its $32 million debut was easily the lowest of the series (no other X pic had premiered below $50 million). Mutants will blow that record out of the water. For starters, there’s the challenges facing any wide release at the moment (limited theater capacity, major markets still closed, etc…). I also suspect many casual moviegoers simply have no idea that Mutants even exists in the X-Men Universe.
I do not have a screen count for Mutants at press time, but I’m assuming it’s similar to the 2000 theaters that will greet Unhinged this weekend. If that holds, I’m not even confident that Mutants gets above $5 million in its first weekend. Disney and 20th Century Fox seem to be dumping this and I believe audiences will respond in kind.
The New Mutants opening weekend prediction: $6.9 million
When we are of a certain age such as 16-18 as the main characters in The Fault in Our Stars are, everything seems to be of a bigger consequence than perhaps it is. Your emotions are magnified. We experience feelings that are truly for the first time. Love is one of them. And there are lots of movies where we see teens go through that journey for the first time. Yet few of them get it right. Few of them manage to capture the almost indescribable significance of discovering love at an age when you’re just beginning to understand it. Cameron Crowe’s Say Anything achieved that rare feat. There are several moments in Josh Boone’s picture that do, too. That’s it greatest strength in a story that follows patterns we’ve seen before to be sure. That said, Fault finds ways to make them seem fresh with lots of credit going to the actors.
In The Fault in Our Stars, the consequences of first love are heightened due to the bond that Hazel Grace (Shailene Woodley) and Augustus (Ansel Elgort) share. They are both diagnosed with cancer and meet in a support group that Hazel’s parents make her go to. Unlike most teens who fall for one another and believe their time together will never end, they know their relationship will be different and not timeless. Upon their meeting, Hazel has Augustus read her favorite book which chronicles a little girl’s battle with their disease. Augustus is frustrated when the book ends with no clear cut conclusion and it leads him to seeking out the reclusive writer (Willem Dafoe) in Amsterdam to get some answers. Once overseas, Hazel and Augustus may not achieve the resolution they’re looking for with the alcoholic author. However, the trip brings them closer together and deeper in love – even though the filmmakers (and author apparently) choose a rather odd location for them to share a first kiss.
While I am not familiar with the picture’s source material, I’m well aware that the John Green novel is widely read and beloved by many. There’s no doubt the cancer themes certainly strike a chord with so many for obvious reasons, but I suspect the Fault phenomenon may lie with my first point. So few screenplays and written works get first love right.
Part of the film’s success in that manner is due to Woodley and Elgort. They’re quite good together and Woodley, especially, has proven herself to be one of the most exciting young actresses working today. Between The Descendants, The Spectacular Now and this – she’s put together quite a remarkable resume of performances in short order. This movie would crumble if the chemistry between the two stars didn’t work and luckily it does. As Hazel’s parents, Laura Dern and Sam Trammell are understated and effective and Nat Wolff provides some often needed comic relief as Augustus’s friend who’s been blinded by cancer.
The Fault in Our Stars could’ve easily veered into overt melodrama, but it mostly avoids it. Much of this is thanks to the wonderful casting, but also the writing which realizes Hazel Grace and Augustus as smart and thoughtful teenagers (something many screenwriters know nothing of). Yes it’s a tearjerker, but the actors and writers earn them by rarely pandering to the audience and capturing the young true love emotions of its two stars.
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