Tag: Joseph Quinn

Oscar Predictions – The Fantastic Four: First Steps

The Fantastic Four: First Steps stomps into multiplexes this Friday as the 37th MCU pic’s review embargo lifted today. Directed by Matt Shakman, the fourth Four feature in the 21st century (and second reboot) is easily generating the strongest reviews of the quartet. Vanessa Kirby, Pedro Pascal, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Joseph Quinn are the title heroes with Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson providing support.

The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% with a 65 Metacritic. That’s slightly behind its Marvel predecessor Thunderbolts* (88% RT/68 Meta). Yet of the three MCU adventures of 2025 (Captain America: Brave New World being the other), this likely stands the best shot at Oscar attention. That’s in the Visual Effects race which are being widely praised. As we’ve discussed on the blog multiples times, MCU flicks get nominated in VE and don’t win. They are 0 for 14 beginning with 2008’s Iron Man. I don’t expect Steps to be their inaugural victor, especially with Avatar: Fire and Ash on the way.

Another aspect being singled out is Michael Giacchino’s score. Black Panther is the only MCU title that’s been nominated for Original Score (it also won). Giacchino is a two-time nominee for Ratatouille and Up for which he took gold). Fantastic might be a long shot in the musical composition competition though I wouldn’t completely discount it. Same goes for its 1960s production design. The likeliest scenario is a sole VE nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Box Office Prediction

The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to set the box office ablaze when it opens July 25th. It is the 37th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth overall picture headlined by the superhero family that made their first comic book appearance nearly 65 years ago. Matt Shakman directs with Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as the title characters. Costars include Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson.

The first FF flick since Disney’s acquisition of Fox, it arrives a decade after the failure of the previous reboot starring Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan. This is not expected to flop with the MCU brand behind it and solid buzz building. All it needs to be the best Fantastic opening is topping 2007’s Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer‘s $58 million. It should double that figure with room to spare.

The benchmark could be Superman‘s $125 million opening from last weekend. When this rolls around, Supes will be in its third weekend and fans could be ready for the next tentpole. Early tracking has this foursome right around the Man of Steel’s first frame. I’ll buy the hype, but say it falls a tad short.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps opening weekend prediction: $122.4 million

Warfare Box Office Prediction

Taken from his real life experiences fighting in the Iraq War, Ray Mendoza co-directs Warfare which releases April 11th. The other filmmaker behind the camera is Alex Garland in his follow-up to Civil War. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai plays Mendoza with a supporting cast including Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Joseph Quinn, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, and Charles Melton.

The A24 release (which also distributed Civil War) is one of a handful of pics next weekend looking to gross around $10 million, give or take. Reviews for Warfare are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Yet I don’t see this approaching the $25 million that Civil over-indexed at during the same April frame last year.

A higher than expected veteran/action fans turnout could push this up beyond my forecast, but I’ll say this falls under $10 million.

Warfare opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my The Amateur prediction, click here:

The Amateur Box Office Prediction

For my Drop prediction, click here:

Drop Box Office Prediction

For my The King of Kings prediction, click here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Warfare

A year after Civil War, Alex Garland is back with his follow-up Warfare on April 11th. This time he’s co-directing with Ray Mendoza, an Iraq War Navy SEAL recounting his own experiences in that theater. The cast includes D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (as Mendoza), Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, Joseph Quinn, and Charles Melton.

At just over 90 minutes, Warfare is particularly being lauded for its technical achievements. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 94% with a 78 Metacritic. I don’t see this as a Best Picture play. Some thought Civil War could sneak in last year though its momentum never truly materialized.

Where this could contend is Best Sound as reviews continuously praise that aspect. Warfare could join other 21st century genre titles like The Hurt Locker, Zero Dark Thirty, Lone Survivor, American Sniper, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Hacksaw Ridge, Dunkirk, 1917, and All Quiet on the Western Front in the auditory field. It’s early in the game, but don’t be surprised if it does (though it’s worth noting Civil War didn’t make that cut). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Gladiator II Review

Denzel Washington’s work in Gladiator II is so strong and he is so entertaining to watch that it’s a bit distracting. There are other distractions that are undoubtedly negatives like subpar CG baboons and the choice to fill the Colosseum with frickin sharks. With the two-time Oscar winner having a ball as an ambitious former slave turned gladiator manager, it made me want the movie to be trained more on him. Instead his Macrinus is trapped in a long gestating sequel to the 2000 Best Picture recipient that might not work much at all without him. It’s like if Denzel’s Alonzo Harris character in Training Day was dropped into a Fast and Furious flick. There’s plenty of fun to be had thanks to him, but it stalls when he’s not around.

Ridley Scott returns to the director’s chair for this follow-up set 16 years after Maximus (Russell Crowe) drew his brave last breath in Rome. The city is not in great shape although the expansive wide shots make it look breathtaking. Co-emperors Geta (Joseph Quinn) and Caracella (Fred Hechinger) are unstable rulers with a thirst for overpowering more territories. Caracella is also a syphilitic lunatic with a pet monkey he eventually empowers so that’s good for a couple of bonkers moments. The boys’ chief general is Acadius (Pedro Pascal) who’s married to Lucilla (Connie Nielsen). As you’ll recall, she is the sister to Gladiator‘s Commodus (Joaquin Phoenix) and former lover to Crowe’s Maximus. Acadius conquers, but he conquers with compassion (awww). He has plans to depose Geta and Caracella (and maybe that monkey) and return Rome to its former glory.

It’s not, I realize, an accident that it’s taken until paragraph 3 to mention the star of the movie. That would be Lucius (Paul Mescal). Introduced to us as Hanno, he’s living a seemingly pleasant laundry hanging life with his wife in the province of Numidia when Acadius and his army come a’conquering. His wife’s screen time is short-lived (just like Maximus’s in the original) and he’s soon vowing revenge on the Roman power structure. Lucius was a boy in the first film played by Spencer Treat Clark – son of Maximus and Lucilla who was sent away for his own protection. Maybe I should have said spoiler alert with the lineage reveal, but it’s right there in the trailer.

When Denzel’s Macrinus offers him a chance to achieve vengeance, Lucius is booked for battle in the same Colosseum like his departed dad. That brings us back to dodgy computer generated baboons and filling the iconic arena with sharks. Apparently water logged events did occur at that venue historically though the participation of the finned feeders was unlikely. The fights are more effective in Gladiator II on the human scale when they don’t involve aquatic or jungle creatures.

The film’s biggest flaw is that Mescal’s Lucius doesn’t have the screen presence that Crowe did. He’s not helped by the screenplay where he’s a bit of a blank slate. Maximus struck fear onscreen when he was unmasked and revealed as a super warrior. I didn’t buy it as much with his offspring when he comes out and plays.

Washington, though, is a blast as he schemes for power (and probably his 10th Oscar nomination). I’d offer that Gladiator II is worth watching for him. Yes, there’s plenty of impressive technical work and sometimes it elevates beyond a rehash of part 1’s beats (though often it doesn’t). Without Macrinus in attendance, the Colosseum would feel considerably emptier.

*** (out of four)

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

Nearly 25 years after Ridley Scott’s original epic stormed the box office and the Academy Awards, Gladiator II enters cinematic arenas on November 22nd. Paul Mescal stars as Lucius, son of Russell Crowe’s Maximus with Scott back in the director’s chair. Costars include Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Derek Jacobi, Connie Nielsen (back as the sister to Joaquin Phoenix’s departed Commodus), and Denzel Washington (generating Oscar buzz for his role).

With a reported budget north of $200 million, the long-in-development sequel should capitalize on a quarter century of goodwill from the Best Picture winning part 1. Reviews are decent with 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic.

The $60-$75 million forecast for its debut sounds about right. I am hesitant to take the over as some viewers may wait until the following Thanksgiving frame to make the multiplex trek. I’ll put it in the upper end of that range for a second place showing to Wicked.

Gladiator II opening weekend prediction: $69.8 million

For my Wicked prediction, click here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction

For my Bonhoeffer prediction, click here:

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Gladiator II

At the dawn of the 21st century, Ridley Scott’s epic Gladiator scored a colossal 12 Oscar nominations and won a handful including Best Picture, Actor (Russell Crowe), Costume Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Other nods included Scott’s direction (he lost to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic), Supporting Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Original Screenplay.

Nearly a quarter century later, Gladiator II is in multiplexes November 22nd. Its battle for Academy recognition could be more challenging. Scott returns behind the camera with Paul Mescal leading a cast that includes Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Connie Nielsen (reprising her role from part 1), and Denzel Washington.

As can sometimes be the case, initial screening reactions from the long-in-development sequel might have been a tad hyperbolic. The review embargo lifted today paints a clearer picture. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 78% with Metacritic at 67. Somewhat surprisingly, that’s in line with its predecessor’s numbers. Yet most critics say this doesn’t measure up to the original.

A Best Picture nom is not out of the question, but I’m currently projecting it won’t make the cut. Its strongest shot in BP will come if voters feel the need to throw at least a couple massive blockbusters in the mix. Dune: Part Two and Wicked (which opens the same day) could fit the bill. Mr. Scott’s direction and the screenplay are long shots. As for the down the line competitions, it could land mentions in Costume Design, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Original Score is possible but unlikely and I’d say the same for Cinematography. When it comes to wins in those tech derbies, it’ll have to contend with Dune which is in a better position for victories.

While Crowe and nemesis Joaquin Phoenix were both up for their performances at the 73rd ceremony, only Denzel Washington seems to be viable at the 97th. He’s being singled out for his work and could be headed toward nomination #10 in Supporting Actor. If he makes the final quintet, a win is probably not in the cards as I’d certainly put him behind Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) at press time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…


Oscar Predictions – A Quiet Place: Day One

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One is out this weekend with a fresh creative team behind and in front of the camera. Michael Sarnoski, best known for Pig with Nicolas Cage, directs with Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, and Alex Wolff entering the franchise. Djimon Hounsou reprises his turn from A Quiet Place Part II.

The review embargo is up and it is slightly behind its two predecessors. 2018’s original posted 96% on RT with 2021’s follow-up at 91%. Day One currently stands at 86%. There is particular praise for Nyong’o who probably came close to a Best Actress nom in this genre with 2019’s Us.

At the 91st Academy Awards, A Quiet Place was up for Sound Editing (this was right before Sound Editing and Sound Mixing were combined into Best Sound). It ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody and was its sole nod. Side note: Emily Blunt took home a surprise Supporting Actress SAG prize for the pic while missing the Oscar cut.

Part II did not get a Sound mention three years later as Dune was the victor. Day‘s only shot on Oscar night is Sound and it’s a coin flip whether it gets in. You’re safe to assume it won’t take the statue even if it makes the quintet thanks to Dune: Part Two. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

Michael Sarnoski, director of Pig, takes over a highly profitable horror franchise from John Krasinski with A Quiet Place: Day One. Paramount is hoping the prequel continues to bring home the bacon. With Krasinski (who just released the family friendly IF) and spouse Emily Blunt (recently in The Fall Guy) out of the mix, Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff, and Djimon Hounsou (a returnee from the second entry) headline.

In the spring of 2018, A Quiet Place made loud noises at multiplexes with a $50 million beginning and $188 million overall domestic haul. The 2021 sequel (delayed a year due to the pandemic) earned $48 million out of the gate with $160 million total stateside.

Scary movies have seen underwhelming premieres for the most part in 2024. Day One should be an exception. That said, I don’t see a compelling reason why this would significantly top its predecessors. A $50 million plus debut is possible. I suspect it will fall in line with its predecessor from three years ago in the mid to high 40s range.

A Quiet Place: Day One opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction