Tag: Jordan Peele

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 12th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:

I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.

Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.

Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.

Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

Other Possibilities:

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

12. Detroit (PR: 13)

13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)

14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)

18. Downsizing (PR: 18)

19. Get Out (PR: 16)

20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)

21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)

22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)

23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)

24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Goodbye Christopher Robin

Molly’s Game

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)

13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)

14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Best Actress 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)

13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)

11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)

12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)

15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

2. Mudbound (PR: 3)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

12. Stronger (PR: 13)

13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

15. Wonder (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 6)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

12. Downsizing (PR: 12)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

14. Wind River (PR: 14)

15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 5th Edition

Back at it once again with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories as we move to October. Over the past week, I would say there’s been two significant developments. First, Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying debuted at the New York Film Festival to somewhat mixed results. I’ve had it in my predicted nine films to be nominated for Best Picture and that changes for now.

The other story is the critical reaction for Blade Runner 2049, which opens tomorrow. Many of the reviews have been raves and I believe it’s increased it chances greatly at nods for Picture and its director Denis Villeneuve, who was nominated just last year for Arrival. 

One further story line is the falling prospects of Battle of the Sexes, which is not performing up to expectations at the box office. Much of the reasoning for it receiving nominations was that it could turn into a hit audience pleaser. That hasn’t occurred and its chances are in doubt. Goodbye Christopher Robin has reviews out as well and its prospects are looking dim.

Per usual, just because I rank something at #1 doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is based on chances for a nomination. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

12. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

13. Detroit (PR: 18)

14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 12)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

16. Get Out (PR: 16)

17. I, Tonya (PR: 22)

18. Downsizing (PR: 19)

19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)

20. Lady Bird (PR: 21)

21. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

22. The Big Sick (PR: 20)

23. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

24. Wonderstruck (PR: 25)

25. Molly’s Game (PR: 24)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)

14. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

15. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 8)

8. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

9. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)

11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 10)

12. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 15)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)

14. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)

15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

11. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

12. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)

14. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 15)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 14)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 7)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 11)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

11. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 13)

13. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

4. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

8. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 11)

10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 9)

11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 13)

13. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

14. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

15. Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)

9. All the Money in the World (PR: 6)

10. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

12. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 10)

13. Stronger (PR: 13)

14. Wonder (PR: 14)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 6)

7. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

10. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)

11. The Florida Project (PR: 12)

12. Downsizing (PR: 11)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

14. Wind River (PR: 13)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Goodbye Christopher Robin

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with brand new Oscar updates…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 28th Edition

Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).

As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)

11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Get Out (PR: 24)

17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

18. Detroit (PR: 16)

19. Downsizing (PR: 13)

20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)

21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)

22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)

23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)

Dropped Out:

Coco

mother!

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)

11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)

14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)

15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

13. Stronger (PR: 9)

14. Wonder (PR: 13)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. Downsizing (PR: 9)

12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Coco

And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Box Office Prediction

Dreamworks is the first studio with an animated feature for the summer season as Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie hits screens next weekend. Based on a series of well-known childrens books by Dav Pilkey, the film features the voices of Kevin Hart, Ed Helms, Nick Kroll, Jordan Peele, and Thomas Middleditch. The screenplay comes from Nicholas Stoller, who made last year’s under performing Storks. 

Underpants is certainly more of a question mark than some of the other animated tales this season – namely Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3, both of which arrive in June. That said, Dreamworks has a mostly solid history of producing hits. 2014’s Mr. Peabody & Sherman debuted to $32 million, 2015’s Home exceeded expectations with $52 million, Trolls made $46 million last fall, and The Boss Baby opened to $50 million in March, outpacing its projections.

While I don’t see this effort getting past $40 million (though it could happen), I believe a high 20s to maybe low 30s debut is in the cards as the studio likely hopes for a sequel (based on the title).

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million

For my Wonder Woman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/

Get Out Movie Review

Jordan Peele’s Get Out is certainly something you don’t see everyday – a mashup of social commentary on race, horror, and comedy. That technically may be an uncomfortable mix of genres, but the writer/director mostly pulls it off in an effort that often feels quite fresh and is sometimes downright invigorating.

The pic begins with a prologue of an African American male wondering the streets of an affluent neighborhood looking for the right address. A car starts to follow him. It doesn’t seem like anything new to him, but it ends in a decidedly frightening result.

Cut to the present as Chris (Daniel Kaluuya) is preparing to leave the city for a weekend at his girlfriend Rose’s (Allison Williams) parents place. Rose doesn’t feel it’s important to inform them that he’s black, even though he warns her it might’ve been worth mentioning. He’s right. The suburban area where her parents (Bradley Whitford and Catherine Keener) dwell is lily white. Her dad believes bonding with Chris involves calling him “my man” and insisting he’d vote for Obama had he been eligible for another term.

There are exceptions to the prominently Caucasian community. The family has a groundskeeper and maid who are black. Chris feels something is off with them. He’s right. He also is creeped out when Mom tries out her hypnosis skills on him. She presents it as a way to stop his smoking (like Greg Focker meeting the parents, he has the same habit). Chris suspects there’s something more sinister at play. Once again, his antenna is pointing in the right direction.

One of the more clever aspects in the writing of Get Out is showing how Chris’s radar is always switched on around people of the opposite race. The reactions to him in this foreign world to him are strange, but not enough to have him running. At least for a while.

As the story unfolds, awkward interactions with the family and others turns to horror. In the third act, that genre takes over and provides the kind of scares and laughs that we cherish in it. Get Out works in other ways. All performances are solid starting with leads Kaluuya and Williams. Special shout outs go to Betty Gabriel as that off kilter maid and Lil Rel Howery as Chris’s buddy who provides major comic relief.

Once the plot is completely revealed, it leaves a lot of unanswered questions that a prequel could surely have a ball with. The writer and director doesn’t totally stick the landing in my view. Saying more would go into spoiler territory. That said, Get Out is sharp and potent. Peele became known from Comedy Central’s “Key and Peele” for laugh out loud moments filled with timely satire. They’re here coupled with more blood. Kudos to him for believing this curious melding could work. He’s right.

***1/2 (out of four)

Get Out Box Office Prediction

A performer known for a groundbreaking comedy sketch show directing a horror film with racial overtones? Get Out is certainly not your typical genre fare nor are its reviews. We’ll see how this mix plays with audiences next weekend. Jordan Peele (one half of Comedy Central’s Key and Peele) is behind the camera for the tale of an interracial couple who visit the girl’s Caucasian parents. They find a history of African Americans disappearing in the community.

Daniel Kaluuya. Allison Williams, Bradley Whitford, and Catherine Keener headline the cast. When Get Out premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January, it did so to many raves and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The electric word of mouth should provide a boost, but I’m skeptical as to how much of one. Traditional slasher horror fans may not know what to make of it and the edgy subject matter may not necessarily bring others in.

That said, I believe a debut in the mid teens is likely which would be a perfectly acceptable roll out.

Get Out opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million

For my Rock Dog prediction, click here:

Rock Dog Box Office Prediction

For my Collide prediction, click here:

Collide Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: Get Out

A horror flick written and directed by a comic actor potentially receiving Oscar attention? Get out, you might say! And Get Out is right and it’s the name of a Sundance premiere that’s drawing lots of positive attention.

This is the directorial debut of Jordan Peele of Comedy Central’s “Key and Peele” and last year’s so so Keanu. It focuses on a black man dating a white woman. When it’s time to meet her parents, he discovers a rather scary community where others of his race have a tendency to disappear. Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Bradley Whitford, and Catherine Keener star in this rather bold premise with a pretty darn effective trailer.

The film’s Sundance debut has drawn raves and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The chances of this getting into the Best Picture convo is unlikely. However, depending on level of competition, it could be in the mix for Peele’s Original Screenplay if voters remember it nearly a year after its February 24th domestic debut.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Storks Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros keeps the onslaught of animated titles being delivered to theaters going with Storks, opening next weekend. The comedic adventure comes from Nicholas Stoller and Doug Sweetland. Mr. Stroller is known for his live-action genre titles like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek, and the Neighbors franchise. The pic features the voices of Andy Samberg, Jennifer Aniston, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Kelsey Grammer, and Ty Burrell.

2016 has been a banner year for animated material with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets and critically acclaimed fare like Kubo and the Two Strings and Sausage Party. With all those titles mentioned, it’s a distinct possibility that an animated feature will really have to stand out now for family audiences to plunk down their dollars. Whether Storks fits that bill is a legit question.

September has been an occasionally fruitful month for the genre. Hotel Transylvania and its sequel are responsible for the month’s two largest openings at $42 and $48 million, respectively. The two Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs flicks both opened above $30 million. Warner Bros should be ecstatic if Storks manages those numbers.

I don’t believe this will quite reach that level and a debut in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.

Storks opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million

For my The Magnificent Seven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/14/the-magnificent-seven-box-office-prediction/

Keanu Movie Review

It may be called Keanu with an adorable kitten named after the actor who gave us Neo/Johnny Utah/John Wick, but the debut feature starring Comedy Central’s “Key and Peele” could’ve been titled George Michael as well. The iconic 1980s British crooner gets his props throughout this action comedy that may have felt right at home in theaters when “Faith” and “Father Figure” were burning up the charts.

The duo’s basic cable program was a rather groundbreaking show with some truly inspired bits. You won’t really find that here. Instead, Keanu is a breezy if rather forgettable tale of the tail of the cat who captures the hearts of everyone who comes in contact with it. Jordan Peele is Rell, who’s depressed after his girlfriend broke up with him when that darn kitty comes into his possession. His best bud/cousin Clarence (Keegan-Michael Key) is stuck in a dull middle class existence with a bored wife (Nia Long) who’s out of town for the weekend. The pair soon learn that Keanu is actually the property of a drug kingpin whose employees were recently mowed down by assassins known as The Allentown Boys (also played by Key and Peele). Before you know it, Rell and Clarence are posing as them in an effort to get the kidnapped Keanu back.

Their journey brings them to the underground L.A. drug scene and a crew led by Cheddar (Method Man) and Hi-C (Tiffany Haddish), who Rell has the hots for. Of course, they need nifty nicknames, too. Tectonic and Shark Tank suffice. As they try to find that fabulously cute feline, the guys teach some criminals the joys of George Michael in a humorous bit that just keeps going and going.

Maybe that’s part of the problem here. The shark out of water premise of Keanu barely can sustain itself for 100 minutes. There are moments sprinkled throughout that work well. An unexpected cameo from Scary Movie lead Anna Faris is amusing. Key and Peele do succeed in proving that their charisma on the small screen translates to the big one. And, yes, that kitten really is a gem. Yet the concept of these guys having to “get hard” (to borrow a phrase from a far worse Kevin Hart vehicle that uses similar plotting) is a rather familiar one. This is a talented pair at work, though. I wouldn’t hesitate to sign up when they get “One More Try”, as that hit song says from Mr. Michael.

**1/2 (out of four)

Keanu Box Office Prediction

The comedic stylings of Key (Keegan-Michael Key) and Peele (Jordan Peele) come to the big screen with Keanu, out next weekend. The R rated laugher centers around a cat theft and our leads getting caught up with some violent criminals. Method Man, Gabrielle Union, Nia Long, Will Forte, Luis Guzman, and, yes, Keanu Reeves costar.

Keanu’s dynamic duo are known for their hit Comedy Central show, which just ended its run last year. Their first film vehicle premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival to solid buzz and its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 75%.

Will audiences follow Key and Peele to the multiplex? If this got to over $20 million in its premiere, Warner Bros would be over the moon. I believe a more likely result is in the mid to high teens.

Keanu opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

For my Mother’s Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/22/mothers-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Ratchet & Clank prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/04/23/ratchet-clank-box-office-prediction/