The Long Walk Box Office Prediction

Despite critical acclaim, The Long Walk could face a tough road when it debuts September 12th. The Lionsgate release is based on the first novel that Stephen King ever wrote when he was a teenager (it was eventually released under his pseudonym Richard Bachman in 1979). I Am Legend and Hunger Games series maker Francis Lawrence directs the dystopian horror flick. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Judy Greer, and Mark Hamill.

Reviews are impressive with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic. That said, genre fans have had plenty of material to view lately and The Conjuring: Last Rites should still be haunting viewers in its sophomore frame. Solid word-of-mouth could push it over double digits, but I’m skeptical.

The Long Walk opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

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Oscar Predictions: The Long Walk

Based on the first novel he ever wrote (though it wasn’t released until 1979), dystopian horror tale The Long Walk arrives in theaters September 12th. Francis Lawrence (maker of I Am Legend and every Hunger Games flick except the first one) is behind the camera with JT Mollner (writer/director of last year’s critical favorite Strange Darling) scripting. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Hamill (in his second 2025 King adaptation after The Life of Chuck).

In a year where horror is receiving acclaim that the Academy could notice, Walk is generating high praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with 80 on Metacritic. Seen as an unadaptable novel (which explains how long it took to arrive on the big screen), critics are saying Lawrence/Mollner pull it off.

Unlike Sinners and Weapons, this is not anticipated to be a major box office juggernaut. With Sinners seemingly poised for Academy love and Weapons contending in Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay (if we’re being generous), Walk is unlikely to generate its own awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…