Oscar Wishes and Magazine Dreams

When the Sundance Film Festival screened the psychological drama Magazine Dreams back in January, the Best Actor competition at the Oscars appeared to pick up a likely contender at an early stage. Jonathan Majors was on a roll having appeared as antagonist Kang the Conquerer in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania with his villainous role in Creed III on deck.

Dreams, while not achieving across the board raves for the picture itself, saw its lead heavily praised. Portraying a mentally unbalanced bodybuilder, Majors immediately garnered awards buzz. Disney (via subsidiary Searchlight) acquired distribution rights with plans for a spirited campaign in the lead actor race. When I wrote my Oscar Predictions post for Dreams at that time, I felt that Majors might be a can’t miss prospect for one of the five spots.

On March 25th, Majors was arrested on various assault charges. Earlier this week, his trial was set for late November. And today, Disney/Searchlight pulled Dreams from December 8th to a dreaded TBD status.

Obviously there are issues bigger than film and this is one of them. The career of Majors will be majorly impacted by the result of the pending proceedings. Yet Oscar speculation is what I focus on with this blog. The rescheduling news probably confirms that this performance is no longer a viable prospect this year or any other. Do not be surprised if Dreams is relegated to a Hulu streaming bow sometime next year with no theatrical output at all. It’s a remarkable turnaround from where we were in January.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Review

According to lore, there are glorious stories of Bill Murray randomly showing up places and elevating an evening’s festivities to a new level. Heck, there’s even a documentary about it. The legend shows up in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and his small part does nothing to level it up. In fact, it seems needlessly random. The Marvel Cinematic Universe has now entered Phase Five. It launches in troubling fashion. This is the 31st MCU pic and I’d rank it #31.

2015’s Ant-Man is one of the weakest links in the Marvel chain, but there were glimpses of the nifty and humorous little heist pic it wanted to be. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Rudd has an effortless charm as the small time crook turned Avenger. 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp was an improvement (in the MCU, the follow-ups often do exceed the quality of their predecessors). The third time is far from the charm.

The bulk of the action is set in the Quantum Realm – a gaudy setting that is far from low-key. Before we get there, Rudd’s Scott Lang is on a book tour and generally enjoying the fame garnered from being an Avenger. His home life with Hope/Wasp (Evangeline Lilly) and now 18-year-old daughter Cassie (Kathryn Newton) appears tranquil. Original title heroes and Hope’s parents Hank (Michael Douglas) and Janet (Michelle Pfeiffer) join the domestic bliss. However, cracks big and small emerge. Cassie seems frustrated by her dad’s coasting off of his previous laurels. The cracks under the ground are of more concern when her scientific experiments land the extended family in the subatomic Realm.

Janet spent 30 years (as revealed in the previous movies) in that particular universe. It’s revealed here that she engaged in far more activities than earlier thought. One includes a hinted at tryst with Bill Murray’s character and his superfluous cameo. Of more consequence is her relationship with Kang (Jonathan Majors), who was stuck with her underground for many years. Janet found a way out while he remained. That’s a plus since his full name is Kang the Conqueror and he destroys planets across multiverses as he sees fit. The villain Darren Cross (Corey Stoll) from the first Ant-Man, now shrunk to a smaller size with a gigantic head, partners with our new main baddie. That results in some horrible CG (I think on purpose) in a sequel that employs other garish effects that are not meant to be funny.

The balance of comic sensibilities that worked well in portions of Ant-Man and especially the sequel collides with the ultra serious introduction of Kang. Hour one is sluggish. Hour two finds our heroes defending characters in the Quantum Realm that we’re never properly introduced to. While Pfeiffer’s role is fattened, sometimes Rudd and definitely Lilly feel like supporting players. Newton, taking over the role from Abby Ryder Fortson, struggles with her one-note character. The strongest performance belongs to Majors, but his menacing and seemingly multi-layered nemesis feels out of place in Ant-Man and Ant-Family’s stomping grounds. Kang might turn out to be a worthy villain to the MCU’s Avengers in future installments. The jury is out for now.

Phase Four and the start of Five have been wobbly. Eternals, Thor: Love and Thunder, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever have been disappointments and Quantumania reaches the lowest level yet. Underwhelming movies in the MCU are starting to feel like groundhog day and audiences might stop randomly showing up if that persists.

** (out of four)

Creed III Review

Michael B. Jordan and screenwriters Keenan Coogler and Zach Baylin are tasked with mounting a Rocky without Rocky in Creed III. We could feel a slight tectonic shift in the franchise when Donnie (Jordan) had more story on his plate than Sylvester Stallone in part II. This completes the movement and it’s a mostly competent entry that tops its predecessor while certainly not matching the 2015 original. It also proves Jordan, directing for the first time, is capable of admirable stylistic flourishes.

There’s some symmetry in how Creed III starts compared to Rocky III forty years before it. Adonis, like his former trainer, is living large and content. Unlike Mr. Balboa in his third go-round, Creed is retired and a happy hubby to music producer wife Bianca (Tessa Thompson) and girl dad to Amara (Mila Davis-Kent). We’re left to assume Rocky is also good to go and reunited with his son in Canada.

A prologue from 2002 informs us of Donnie’s childhood friend Damian Anderson. A Golden Gloves phenom with a bright ring future, the ropes close after a run-in the law. 20 years later, he’s out of prison with Jonathan Majors as the grown-up “Diamond Dame”. Reconnecting with Donnie, the true history of their friendship and fallout is shared slowly. We know it will culminate in a squared circle face-off.

Where Creed III shines is the casting of Majors and the continued potent work from Jordan. If Creed II‘s foe (Ivan Drago’s son from Rocky IV) felt gimmicky (and it basically did), the screenplay assists Dame’s character in having more dimension. It’s the intense performance from Majors that sells it. As an aside, Florian Munteanu pops up rather unnecessarily as Viktor Drago once again.

Some of the family drama involving Phylicia Rashad as Donnie’s beloved adoptive mom and her healthy problems and Bianca’s melodic issues are filler. The pace is a little off as it takes about 40 minutes to get warmed up and then feels rushed when we hit the third act.

In that last act, thankfully, Jordan’s skills behind the camera come into focus. The final bout looks and sounds different than what we’ve paid for in the eight previous pics when Rocky, Creed, and his dad (and Uncle Paulie and that robot) were sparring. The hype for Donnie and Dame pays off and that’s where the admission feels earned. So while this eighth round isn’t always smooth, it’s less rocky than some others in the series.

*** (out of four)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)

My wildly early first look at the major categories for next year’s Oscars continues with Best Actor! If you missed my posts covering the supporting derbies, they are linked at the bottom.

Quite honestly, I had a hard time shrinking this list down to 15. Leaving out possible contenders such as Benedict Cumberbatch (The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar), Adam Driver (Ferrari), or Michael Fassbender (The Killer or Next Goal Wins) felt odd. Even Matt Damon for Air (out next weekend) is a legit hopeful. There’s plenty of others I could name.

It is worth pointing out that my inaugural projections for 2022 correctly placed eventual winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in the top five while Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) were both mentioned in Other Possibilities.

A final note (and there’s no great to broach this) is that I likely would’ve had Jonathan Majors (Magazine Dreams) in my quintet instead of in Other Possibilities a week ago. However, his weekend arrest obviously complicates the matter and throws any potential campaign into disarray.

Here’s the premiere forecast for ’23 and Best Actress is up next.

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Kingsley Ben-Adir, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Mike Faist, Challengers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Other Possibilities:

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Andre Holland, The Actor

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Jonathan Majors, Magazine Dreams

Charles Melton, May December

Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

Lakeith Stanfield, The Book of Clarence

Oscar Predictions: Creed III

Creed III enters the theatrical ring on March 3rd and some early reviews indicate it’s an improvement over its predecessor. Michael B. Jordan, returning in the title role, makes his directorial debut in the threequel that costars Tessa Thompson, Jonathan Majors, Wood Harris, Florian Munteanu, and Phylicia Rashad. One notable name not seen is Sylvester Stallone as the ninth feature in this cinematic universe is the first not to include Rocky.

In 1976, Rocky landed 10 Oscar nominations and won 3 including Picture and Director. In 1982, Rocky III nabbed an Original Song nod with “Eye of the Tiger” by Survivor. When Jordan’s character entered the mix in 2015, Stallone’s seventh appearance as Mr. Balboa was up for Supporting Actor (where he surprisingly lost to Mark Rylance from Bridge of Spies). Creed II (2018) received no nominations.

II also has a lower Rotten Tomatoes rating than part III. While the original Creed had 95%, the sequel was 83%. Based on nearly 60 reviews thus far, III is at 89%. Yet unlike the third franchise entry for Rocky, this doesn’t have an inspiring theme song about the optical determination of large striped cats. In other words, I’m not really sure where Creed III would enter the awards conversation despite the solid reactions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Creed III Box Office Prediction

Creed III looks to clobber Scott Lang (aka Ant-Man) and all other competitors when it debuts March 3rd. The sporty sequel finds star Michael B. Jordan handling directorial duties in his behind the camera debut. This is the first feature in the Rocky Cinematic Universe with no involvement from Sylvester Stallone. Jonathan Majors, currently playing the antagonist in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, is Creed’s former childhood friend and latest opponent. Tessa Thompson, Wood Harris, Florian Munteanu, and Phylicia Rashad return to the franchise.

In 2015, Creed was a critical and commercial hit from Ryan Coogler. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, it took in just over $30 million from Friday to Sunday and nearly $43 million over the five-day start. The eventual domestic haul was $109 million. Three Turkey Days later came Creed II with Steven Caple Jr. directing and audiences were hungry for more. It topped its predecessor with $35 million for the three-day and $55 million when including Wednesday and Thursday.

Early word-of-mouth is sturdy for the third edition. Like parts I and II, this was originally slated for Thanksgiving last year before United Artists made a shift. Creed III could manage to score the highest three-day launch of the bunch and approach $40 million out of the gate. I will put it just under that for a three-day best franchise opening.

Creed III opening weekend prediction: $39.2 million

For my Operation Fortune: Rose de Guerre prediction, click here:

For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

The MCU hopes for enlarged returns for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania when its debuts Friday. This is the third film in the franchise with Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly as the title heroes with Jonathan Majors making his debut as villainous Kang.

31 pictures into the cinematic universe that began with Iron Man (2008), Marvel’s multi-billion grossing series has seen its share of Oscar nominations. This is particularly true in Visual Effects where 13 features have been up and none have yet to win (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is unlikely to break that stat next month with competition from Avatar: The Way of Water).

None of the MCU’s previous nods belong to Quantumania predecessors Ant-Man (2015) or Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018). Based on reviews today, that stat should also stay intact. While Majors is picking up decent reviews, the pic is currently at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the second lowest score of any MCU title (Eternals is 47%). By comparison, the original Ant-Man hit 83% and the sequel had 87%. Bottom line: the chances for any awards attention is quite small. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hopes to score commanding grosses over the long President’s Day weekend starting February 17th. The 31st entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and third in this particular franchise features Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly reprising their roles as the title heroes. Michelle Pfeiffer and Michael Douglas are back with Jonathan Majors being introduced as villain Kang the Conqueror. Peyton Reed (who helmed the first two) is back directing. Other cast members include Kathryn Newton, David Dastmalchian, William Jackson Harper, Katy O’Brian, and Bill Murray.

The initial movie in the MCU’s Phase Five (with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels up next), Ant-Man looks to expand on the opening earnings of its predecessors. In the summer of 2015, Ant-Man made $57 million for its start (the second smallest MCU debut with The Incredible Hulk being lowest at $55 million). It ended up with $180 million domestically. Three years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp reached higher with $75 million and an eventual stateside tally of $216 million.

When it comes to the MCU, sequels typically outperform their originals (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was a recent exception to the rule). Thor: Love and Thunder, on the other hand, built upon its three predecessors. Quantumania should follow that trend.

As far as President’s Day weekend, it shouldn’t come close to approaching the record. That was five years ago with Black Panther when it scored $202 million from Friday to Sunday and $242 million when factoring Monday. The runner-up is 2016’s Deadpool with respective three and four-day takes of $132 million and $152 million. Third place belongs to 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey ($85 million Friday to Sunday, $93 million four-day).

This should manage a third place all-time haul. I’ll say the three-day falls a tad short of $100 million and just shy of $110 million with Monday’s inclusion.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opening weekend prediction: $96.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $109.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Cassandro

Director Roger Ross Williams is no stranger to the Academy. His short film Music by Prudence was 2009’s recipient for Documentary Short Subject (making him the first African-American director to win an Oscar). The 2016 feature length doc Life, Animated was a contender in that race.

At Sundance, Williams is branching outside of the doc genre for Cassandro, which explores a real life subject. Gael Garcia Bernal is the title character – an openly gay Mexican wrestler who attained huge stardom. With a smattering of reviews in, the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

With earlier acclaimed roles in The Motorcycle Diaries, Bad Education, and Babel, Bernal has yet to find his awards showcase role. He might get it here if distributor Amazon launches a serious campaign. The same can be said for Jonathan Majors and Magazine Dreams, which was my previous predictions write-up coming from Utah’s festival. Needless to say it’s early, but we already have potential hopefuls for next year’s Actor derby.

Cassandro could also contend for the memorable costumes that Bernal dons in the ring. Bottom line: this is worth keeping tabs on as the 2023 awards season is in its infancy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Magazine Dreams

Jonathan Majors is about to have a high profile first quarter of 2023 and it begins at Sundance this weekend. The Lovecraft Country and Devotion star (who first captured the attention of reviewers in 2019’s The Last Black Man in San Francisco) will appear as the villainous Kang the Conquerer in February’s MCU sequel Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Just two weeks later in early March, he will square off against Michael B. Jordan in Creed III.

At Sundance, audiences are getting their first look at him in Magazine Dreams. The sophomore effort from writer/director Elijah Bynum, Majors is a disturbed bodybuilder with roided out rage. Costars include Haley Bennett, Taylour Paige, Mike O’Hearn, Harrison Page, and Harriet Sansom Harris.

Early reaction is mostly positive though they’re not across the board raves. The praise for Majors exceeds that of the picture. Critics are applauding the lead’s commitment to the challenging role. With supporting roles in the aforementioned likely blockbusters, look for a distributor to snatch Magazine up quickly. Don’t be surprised if they issue a major campaign for Best Actor. Majors could be a factor a year down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…