Oscar Predictions: Transformers One

Hasbro’s robotic franchise goes animated for the first time in nearly 40 years when Transformers One debuts next weekend. Chris Hemsworth, Scarlett Johansson, Brian Tyree Henry, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm provide voiceover work. Josh Cooley, who helmed Animated Feature winner Toy Story 4 from 2010, directs.

Critical reaction is mostly on the plus side and that’s more than can be said for some other titles in the group. The RT score is 89% with Metacritic at 62. The Tomatoes meter is on par with Bumblebee‘s 90% and far ahead of any others in the series. It also tops the 62% that 1986’s animated The Transformers: The Movie managed.

That said, I doubt this Transformers entry gets the Academy’s attention. 2007’s Transformers earned 3 nods for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. The 2009 sequel Revenge of the Fallen nabbed a sole Sound Mixing mention. 2011’s Dark of the Moon received the same 3 noms as the ’07 original. 2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight, of course, was that year’s Best Picture. Nearly everything in this paragraph is true.

Transformers One could compete in Animated Feature, but I’ve yet to put it near my high five. If last year’s acclaimed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem couldn’t make the cut, I don’t think this does. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Transformers One Box Office Prediction

The last time the Transformers franchise went fully animated on the big screen, it was in 1986 in The Transformers: The Movie. It was a flop but has since developed a cult following and it awesomely featured the voices of everyone from Eric Idle to Judd Nelson to Leonard Nimoy to Casey Kasem to Orson Welles. Since then, Paramount and Hasbro have earned billions from their live-action robot mayhem movies. The franchise goes back to animation in Transformers One on September 20th. From Toy Story 4 director Josh Cooley, this might not have Casey Kasem or Charles Foster Kane. There are voiceover contributions from Chris Hemsworth, Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm.

Early word-of-mouth is encouraging for the sci-fi action tale and that could help post Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. It came out last summer and ended up as the lowest grosser of the series with $157 million domestically. Expectations are not lofty for One and it could end up making less than Beasts. I’m pegging this for a mid 30s beginning.

Transformers One opening weekend prediction: $35.4 million

For my Never Let Go prediction, click here:

Unfrosted Review

To generously take a bowl is half super approach, Jerry Seinfeld’s Unfrosted features stand-up Kyle Dunnigan doing a pretty killer Walter Cronkite impression. His anchor recounts the news with trademark authority followed by darkly amusing off the air grumblings about his love life and alcoholism. Later on, Dunnigan follows up with an impressive Johnny Carson takeoff. There’s lots of comedians and comedic performers in the legendary Mr. Seinfeld’s directorial debut for Netflix. Most of them don’t get the chance to nail their brief screen time like Mr. Dunnigan. A lot of Unfrosted, a mostly fictional account of how Pop-Tarts came to be, consists of stale humor with too many subplots competing against one another.

Even 96 minutes feels long since there’s barely enough witty material for the 22 minutes Jerry used to work in. He plays Bob Cabana, a high level exec at Kellogg’s in 1963. This is one of those screenplays (by Seinfeld and his frequent collaborators Spike Feresten, Andy Robin, and Barry Marder) that constantly reminds us it’s set during that decade in increasingly lame ways. Along with his boss Edsel Kellogg III (Jim Gaffigan) and Melissa McCarthy’s NASA scientist turned cereal conglomerate employee, they are in a race to produce the best toasted pastry treat. In Battle Creek, Michigan, the combat lines are drawn with their rival Post led by socialite Marjorie Post (Amy Schumer). Such lines are not so subtly tied to another race – the space one – of that era.

Rhythms of Unfrosted becomes familiar in short order – a joke or two that work about a given subplot (like the correlation with the nation’s trip to the moon) that get overused swiftly. There’s bursts of inspiration like Dunnigan’s grousing. Bill Burr’s take on JFK is also a delight. Most of the time I wasn’t blown away by what else the overfilled screenplay had to say.

Since this is Seinfeld we’re talking about, there’s lots of funny people popping in for a day or two on the set. Hugh Grant is the very real Thurl Ravenscroft, a true Shakespearean thespian who voiced Tony the Tiger. The Kellogg gang recruits a hodgepodge of kitschy historical figures including fitness guru Jack LaLanne (James Marsden), Sea Monkeys maker and maybe Nazi Harold von Braunhut (Thomas Lennon), and Chef Boy Ardee (Bobby Moynihan) to develop the product. I could go on and on. Mixing all these talents together is bound to produce some amusing highlights and it does on occasion, but not nearly enough. Sometimes the satire totally misses like when it attempts to connect a mascot uprising to January 6th.

A lot of Unfrosted probably sounded better while Seinfeld and crew were discussing it over Zoom. Most of it might produce more guffaws if its Cronkite impersonator were handling the delivery.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Unfrosted

You might be familiar with his TV work, but Jerry Seinfeld’s cinematic output is limited to the 2002 doc Comedian and 2007’s animated Bee Movie. He makes his directorial debut and stars in Unfrosted, which loosely tells the story of how Pop-Tarts came into our world. The cast is an impressive mix of comedic talents including Melissa McCarthy, Jim Gaffigan, Hugh Grant, Amy Schumer, and many more that are tagged in this write-up.

Premiering on Netflix this weekend, reviews are finally popping up. The late embargo is explained by the troubling 18% Rotten Tomatoes score. Indicating a rare misfire for the small screen legend, this big screen product origin tale (a popular of genre lately) was never seen as an Oscar player. Yet considering the talent onboard, Golden Globe possibilities in the Musical/Comedy derbies seemed possible. Those appear to be toast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Mean Girls

Mean Girls, out tomorrow, is based on the Broadway musical based on a movie that’s originally based on a book. In that sense, it’s much like current Oscar contender The Color Purple. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. make their directorial debut with Tina Fey returning to costar and write the screenplay. The cast includes Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Busy Philips, Tim Meadows, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park.

The 2004 pic was a box office and critical success (84% RT) that has endured over the past two decades. Reviews for this aren’t as strong, but they’re decent at 71% on the Tomato meter.

Original Song is the only race where this stands any chance at Academy recognition. I doubt the memory of this version will endure long enough for voters to remember them. Since it’s a musical, the Globes could honor it in Musical/Comedy, but the same logic applies there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Mean Girls Box Office Prediction

Arriving nearly 20 years after its source material was a critical and commercial success, Mean Girls looks to fetch profitable results for Paramount when it debuts January 12th. The musical comedy is based on the Broadway show that resulted from the 2004 film. Tina Fey writes the screenplay (as she did for both preceding projects) and reprises her role from the original (alongside Principal Tim Meadows). New cast members include Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Bijou Philipps, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. are behind the camera for their directorial debuts.

In the spring of 2004, Mean Girls grossed an impressive $86 million domestically and $130 million total worldwide. Its popularity has endured in the following two decades. OG MG’s Lindsay Lohan, Amanda Seyfried, and Lacey Chabert (minus Rachel McAdams) recently reunited for a Walmart ad. Fans of that version and more (especially an anticipated large female audience) should turn out. Once slated for a Paramount+ bow, the studio reportedly changed their minds after encouraging screenings.

That should prove to be a wise move. Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Girls is anticipated to generate a four-day start in at least the mid to possibly high 20s. I think it will that range is about right.

Mean Girls opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Beekeeper prediction, click here:

For my The Book of Clarence prediction, click here:

Maggie Moore(s) Review

At one point in Maggie Moore(s), New Mexico police chief Sanders (Jon Hamm) tells his blunt deputy Reddy (Nick Mohammed) that he has no concept of when it’s OK to tell a joke. You could say the same with Paul Bernbaum’s screenplay. This black comedy attempts to pull off incorporating pedophilia and hate crimes as its murder mystery plays out. It doesn’t work in this aimless grim pic. Plus it’s just not very funny.

Maggie Moore (Louisa Krause) works at a diner while sleazy husband Jay (Micah Stock) is the franchisor of a sandwich shop where he buys rancid meat on the black market. When she threatens to expose his various shady business dealings, she turns up dead. A gigantic deaf hitman named Kosco (Happy Anderson) is responsible. In this small town setting, there’s another Maggie Moore (Mary Holland) and perhaps her murder will throw Hamm’s chief from the fast food potential felon.

This all goes down early in the picture and most of Moore(s) is Sanders and his partner catching up with what we already know. This unfortunate structure zaps it of any suspense and when the humor falters (which is most of the time), the mold gathers quickly.

You might think a 30 Rock reunion of Hamm and Tina Fey courting each other could save it. She plays Jay’s nosy and self-conscious neighbor who catches the lawman’s eye. Despite their easy chemistry that results in a handful of laughs, it can’t rescue the second feature length effort from the lead’s Mad Men costar John Slattery.

The aforementioned taboo subjects indicate that its makers want to bring an edge that is never earned. None of the relationships feel authentic in a script where the players are quirky without quality development. The subs aren’t the only item that are substandard.

*1/2 (out of four)

Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick

Will Academy voters feel the need? The need for recognizing the year’s biggest domestic grosser in the Best Picture race at the 95th Academy Awards? It’s the eighth film up for consideration in my Case Of posts.

The Case for Top Gun: Maverick:

This would represent the People’s Choice. Tom Cruise’s summer sequel rode a wave of sizzling buzz to towering business ($718 million stateside) while critics raved (96% on Rotten Tomatoes). It nabbed six nominations including some key ones for a BP victory like Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing.

The Case Against Top Gun: Maverick:

It also missed in some important precursors. Despite a DGA spot, director Joseph Kosinski was omitted from the Oscar five. Maverick was considered a threat to take Cinematography gold (as it did at the Globes), but was snubbed. Mega-blockbusters don’t usually take the grand prize (it’s been almost 20 years since Lord of the Rings: Return of the King rose above its competitors).

Other Nominations:

Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects

The Verdict:

The sound of a Maverick win may be likeliest in Sound. The preferential ballot could lend itself to an upset in BP. It has a better shot than the other sequel in contention Avatar: The Way of Water. However, the odds are slightly against it.

My Case Of posts will continue with Triangle of Sadness!

If you didn’t catch my previous write-ups on BP contenders, click here:

Confess, Fletch Review

It’s often the company our title character keeps in Confess, Fletch that determines the success rate. Jon Hamm effortlessly wears the role of a former journalist who is forced to solve a murder. The urgency is due to I.M. Fletcher finding a female corpse in the house he’s staying at in the first scene. He calls the police station instead of 911 after the discovery. Why? The emergency part is over, according to him. His ambivalence results in humorous moments throughout. It also leads to him becoming the prime suspect.

Greg Mottola has directed comedies that killed like Superbad and Adventureland. He’s also behind the dud Keeping Up with Joneses, which costarred Hamm. This reboot of a franchise that yielded one of Chevy Chase’s finest pics in 1985 and a disappointing 1989 sequel is somewhere in between. When it’s funny, it’s quite funny. There’s also the matter of the mystery itself and it’s not very compelling.

Before Chevy made the often disguised wisecracker into his own vehicle, the character was based on a series of Greg Mcdonald novels. Confess, Fletch is based on his second book. It involves kidnappings and art thievery that our former “investigative reporter of some repute” (as he refers to himself) gets caught up in due to his romance with wealthy Italian contessa Angela (Lorenza Izzo).

Fletch may be the prime suspect to law enforcement, played memorably by partners Inspector Monroe (Roy Wood Jr.) and Detective Griz (Ayden Mayeri). He nonchalantly scopes out others. This includes Angela’s potentially gold digging stepmom The Countess (Marcia Gay Harden) and perhaps Angela herself. The Countess is an example of a character played quite broadly and while Harden seems to be having a ball, there’s other personalities that the movie could’ve benefited from with more screen time. I’m thinking specifically of Annie Mumolo’s gossipy next door neighbor and Lucy Punch as a jilted ex-wife of another suspect. I would’ve taken more bits with them over The Countess or Kyle MacLachlan’s EDM loving art dealer.

Just like Hamm’s take on the reputed reporter, it’s easy to go along for the ride. It was also easy to wish for more of what worked best. Ultimately I was about as involved in the plot mechanisms as Fletch himself and that’s sporadic.

**1/2 (out of four)

Top Gun: Maverick Review

Sun drenched SoCal nostalgia permeates every land, air, and beach surface of Top Gun: Maverick and it’s a pleasure to bask in the glow. Many a franchise lately has attempted to tap into our sentimentality and many have failed. 36 years after the original, Maverick elevates what preceded it while making us misty about those very events from the mid 80s. Perhaps most thrilling is watching a movie star firmly in control of what’s made him a headliner for five decades.

Captain Pete Mitchell aka Maverick (Tom Cruise) has refused upward promotion in the Navy while spending the bulk of his working hours skyward as a test pilot. The romance that took his breath away with Kelly McGillis is seemingly long dormant. His friendship with Iceman (Val Kilmer), now a decorated Admiral, saves his tail after a work mishap. Instead of washing out, he’s sent back to San Diego as a TOPGUN teacher. Against the wishes of a Vice Admiral who goes by Cyclone (Jon Hamm), Maverick is tasked with instructing a new generation of pilots.

Their mission (and they’re forced to accept it) is to destroy an unnamed enemy nation’s uranium enrichment plant. It is (ahem) a potentially impossible mission and Maverick’s tutelage is complicated by one of the students. Rooster (Miles Teller) is the son of the late Goose (Anthony Edwards) from the original. You may recall that he perished in the arms of the leading man and therefore eliminated his ability to talk to anyone except for metaphorically.

While the dynamic between the teacher and his pupil is the pic’s emotional through line, there’s subplots aplenty. This includes Maverick’s courtship of Penny (Jennifer Connelly), who checks the boxes of being an ex-flame, single mother, and bar owner where standards from the 1960s can be drunkenly belted out. We also get a truly emotional sequence with Cruise and Kilmer made more touching by the latter’s real world health challenges. And, of course, there’s a whole new crop of pilots. Most memorable, by far, is the cocky Hangman (Glen Powell). You’ll leave the theater convinced Powell is going to become a major headliner himself.

Then there’s the fact that technology has soared by leaps and bounds since the first one. To put it simply – the aerial battles in the third act are awesome and I would suggest an IMAX venue to take it in. As mentioned, many fan service attempts in recent times have been serviceable at best or less. Top Gun: Maverick, with its megawatt star, is more than that. It earns its stripes.

***1/2 (out of four)