My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives TOMORROW prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd (pushed back due to the California wildfires). Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The last post in this series is Best Picture. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies and director, you can access them here:
As I’ve mentioned several times lately, I believe there’s an octet of movies that have punched their ticket to the BP show. Let’s call them the easy 8. If any of these pictures miss the Best Picture cut at this point, it would be a major surprise. Four of them (Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez) have shown up in five of the key precursors: Golden Globes, BAFTA, PGA, Critics Choice and SAG.
Two more (The Brutalist, Wicked) managed four.
Two more (Dune: Part Two, The Substance) were nominated in three. No other 2024 motion pictures had three or more mentions.
Now we have to consider the final two slots and that’s where it gets tricky. Before we do, let’s take a moment to recognize some efforts that won’t make the ultimate dance. Some of them could show up in tech races or see some of their actors nominated. Others didn’t cut the mustard with critics and audiences. A lot of these titles were, at some juncture, listed in my top 25 possibilities as I forecasted the race throughout the year. They won’t be seen tomorrow in my BP list. We’re talking about Joker: Folie à Deux and Gladiator II and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. Yes, I once saw Megalopolis as a viable candidate. There’s The Piano Lesson, The Apprentice, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Civil War, Kinds of Kindness, Maria, and The End.
That leaves me with 8 pictures to ponder for 2 spots. Unlike my previous posts on Best Director and the actors, I won’t be ranking these possibilities. After all, I gotta leave a little suspense for my final picks tomorrow, right? Nevertheless let’s walk through them one by one with some commentary.
All We Imagine as Light would be a threat to win Best International Feature Film had India submitted it as its contender. It was not to be and the Academy could make up for it in BP. Yet it hasn’t shown up in any of the 5 aforementioned precursors.
Challengers only has a Musical or Comedy nod from the Globes in its favor. A PGA nomination (which I wrongly predicted) didn’t materialize. This is a tough sell.
Nickel Boys has Golden Globe and Critics Choice noms on the resume. Many critics have it at the top of their 2024 best of, but it’s missed other key competitions.
Nosferatu has gotten some “spoiler” ink lately with some saying it could be this year’s Nightmare Alley. That pic from 2021 at least had the Critics Choice nod whereas Nosferatu didn’t show up in the quintet of precursors.
A Real Pain has undoubtedly had an up and down journey on the road to a potential BP nomination. It made the Globe cut and then missed Critics Choice and BAFTA. That left it down and out in the eyes of many and I dropped it from my 10. This week it popped back up at PGA and its fortunes could be stronger.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig should receive an International Feature Film nom. It has not gotten into the precursors for Picture though. Though I didn’t say I’d rank these eight, this is unquestionably at or near the bottom of these hopefuls.
September 5, like A Real Pain, has been buoyed by a PGA spot and it also made the Globes. Yet its exclusions at BAFTA and Critics Choice are noteworthy.
Sing Sing has had a rocky preseason, especially missing SAG and the Globes. While Colman Domingo seems locked in for Best Actor, the Academy will really need to fall for this. Of the five precursors, this only received Critics Choice.
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Picture for the 97th Academy Awards. After months of endless speculation, you’ll know my final predictions in about 24 hours!
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:
Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.
So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).
The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.
Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?
Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.
Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.
Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.
Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.
RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.
Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:
Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.
However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).
Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).
There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).
That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.
Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.
Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.
Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.
For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
This third write-up brings us to Best Supporting Actress. If you missed the previous two posts covering Actress and Supporting Actor, you can find them here:
I often refer to the “pen” theory on this blog when discussing my Oscar forecasts. Those are performers and pictures whose nominations can be written in pen. For the 97th Academy Awards in Supporting Actress, I believe there’s two surefire selections.
Pop star Ariana Grande’s turn as Glinda has bewitched audiences worldwide. She’s received a key quartet of noms at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and the BAFTA long list. Her inclusion appears assured.
The same can be said for Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and I have her placed in 1st. That’s because Saldaña has also achieved the aforementioned precursors with a victory at the Globes.
And then it’s a bit of a free for all with 8 performers, in my view, vying for 3 slots. Before we discuss them, let’s take a moment to mention some actresses whose nods once seemed possible. Then their pictures debuted and either the movies were looked at as disappointments or their roles weren’t significant enough to warrant awards buzz. I’m talking about Lady Gaga from Joker: Folie à Deux, Toni Collettee in Juror #2, Lashana Lynch from Bob Marley: One Love, and Hong Chau in Kinds of Kindness, to name a few.
Despite making the BAFTA long list, don’t look for Adriana Paz in Emilia Pérez to contend with the focus on cast mates Karla Sofia Gascón in lead and Saldaña and Selena Gomez (we’ll get to her shortly) here. Emily Watson also made the BAFTA cut in Small Things like These but isn’t expected to factor into the Academy derby. Same with Michele Austin in Hard Truths.
The next group were once seen as viable and have not made it to the precursors. Their nominations are not totally impossible. However, they would be rightly seen as major spoilers. I would include Joan Chen (Dídi), Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), and Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) in this lot.
We return to the 8 performers circling three Oscar chairs. They are: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Monica Barbaro’s performance as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown has only popped up in one of the 4 previously discussed precursors. In her favor… it’s the most recent at SAG and Unknown has generally been over performing this season. I don’t have her predicted at press time and she’s 5th out of these 8 possibilities.
Jamie Lee Curtis, two years after winning this prize for Everything Everywhere All at Once, is in the mix once again for The Last Showgirl. She could also benefit from recency bias. While she didn’t factor in at the Globes or Critics Choice, her name has been called in the last few days with the BAFTA long list and SAG. I have her 6th out of the 8 possibilities.
Danielle Deadwyler has the disadvantage of The Piano Lesson not being a Best Picture contender or being a threat for a nomination anywhere else. The SAG nod this week kept her in the conversation and she also received Critics Choice. Two years ago, she was notably snubbed for her lead performance in Till and that could assist her now. I have her 3rd out of the 8 possibilities and just getting in.
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Nickel Boys has only shown up at Critics Choice and the movie itself may or may not make the BP dance. While her standing in the eventual quintet looks shaky, I wouldn’t totally discount her and she’s 7th out of the 8 possibilities.
Selena Gomez is undoubtedly in the shadow of costar Saldaña though she’s in the BAFTA long list and was nominated at the Globes. A SAG nod would have caused her to be higher, but she’s 8th out of the 8 possibilities.
Felicity Jones made BAFTA and Globes and was a surprise no-show at Critics Choice and SAG. I suspect The Brutalist‘s eventual standing at Oscar helps and I have her 1st among these 8 possibilities.
Margaret Qualley is nowhere near as guaranteed an Academy invite as her Substance lead Demi Moore. Of the four precursors, she has only missed SAG. I didn’t predict her there and I currently have her 4th of these 8 possibilities. That would leave her barely on the outside looking in.
Finally, despite a short amount of screen time in Conclave, Isabella Rossellini also only missed SAG. Unlike Qualley, I have her 3rd of the 8 hopefuls and just making the quintet.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a deep dive into Best Actor up next!
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:
Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.
There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.
So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.
That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.
There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.
With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.
Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.
Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.
Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.
Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!
Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.
Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.
The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.
So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.
There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).
More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Costume Design
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.
The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).
Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You ThereGod? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29 –
4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)
8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anora
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.
Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Conclave
7 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:
Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.
In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)
12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: PartTwo (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)
10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)
9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Wicked
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sasquatch Sunset
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Forbidden Road” from Better Man
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
“Better Way to Live” from Kneecap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
The Substance
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
7 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.
Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?
Best International Feature Film
Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves
There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper
Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.
Best Original Score
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.
Best Original Song
Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz
The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked
In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.
Best Sound
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).
Best Visual Effects
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked
I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.
Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).
My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.
On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.
While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.
You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Magaro, September 5
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Armand
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
The Brutalist, Conclave
6 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
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