And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.
This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Angel Studios is hoping that audiences of the faith-based variety flock to Cabrini this weekend. The tale of Italian immigrants in late 19th century New York comes from Alejandro Monteverde, who made the unexpected smash hit Sound of Freedom for the aforementioned production company last summer. Cristiana Dell’Anna stars in the title role of the real life eventual saint. Costars include David Morse, Romana Maggiora, Federico Iepali, Virginia Bocelli, Rolando Villazón, Giancarlo Giannini, and John Lithgow.
Early reviews are of the thumbs up variety with a 96% RT rating. As mentioned, the studio broke out in a major way with Freedom, which grossed an astonishing $184 million. This was assisted by a unique pay it forward marketing strategy. Angel follow-ups haven’t gotten anywhere near those numbers. October’s After Death took in just over $5 million for its start while December’s The Shift premiered to $4.4 million.
I will readily admit that I’m playing a guessing game with Cabrini. I haven’t seen a theater count and my estimate could shift when I do. A Catholic contingent could get this to higher figures than I’m about to project. Faith-based titles in general certainly have the ability to exceed expectations. It could also start out slow and hold well in subsequent weekends with Easter approaching. This might hit $10 million or even post a larger gross I’m not envisioning. $5 million is also possible. I’ll go higher single digits, but keep an eye on this post to see if I change it up or down before Friday.
After a Cannes Film Festival premiere in May that instantly turned it into a major awards contender, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon shines down on theaters October 20th. It marks the legendary filmmaker’s sixth collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio and tenth with Robert De Niro. Lily Gladstone is third lead and she’s generating Oscar buzz along with her aforementioned costars. The supporting cast includes Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, and Brendan Fraser.
Based on David Grann’s 2017 novel, the reported $200 million production was picked up by Apple TV. They chose to go the theatrical route with the three and a half hour epic (Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman went straight to Netflix).
This summer, adults turned out in full force for Oppenheimer (as in close to a billion worldwide). A lot of moviegoers who made the trek to see Christopher Nolan’s potential Best Picture winner do the same with this potential BP recipient. My forecast puts in the upper region of its expected range. That would be close to $30-35 million and don’t be shocked if it gets past that.
Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million
All 206 minutes of Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon have been breathlessly awaited by pundits ahead of its Cannes premiere. That occurred today some five months before its domestic release. The crime western reunites the legendary filmmaker with his two most famous and frequent collaborators Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro in this adaptation of David Grann’s 2017 non-fiction novel. Lily Gladstone (in what’s long been pegged as a role with awards potential) costars alongside Jesse Plemons, Brendan Fraser, and John Lithgow.
On paper, Killers has looked like a surefire contender for Oscar glory ever since it was announced. Scorsese has seen five of his past eight films nominated for Best Picture: The Aviator, The Departed (which won), Hugo, The Wolf of Wall Street, and The Irishman. As mentioned, the 1920s set tale of murders among the Osage Nation comes with a runtime that just exceeds its reported $200 million budget. Apple TV footed the bill, but it will see a theatrical bow prior to any streaming release.
Some of the early critical reaction does gripe about the length (same went for Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman). Yet most reviews indicate this will be the gold player that we assumed. That last Marty movie scored 10 nods. This could match it or even exceed it. Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by the director and Eric Roth), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound are all feasible. The early Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 100%.
As for the acting derbies, Leonardo DiCaprio is drawing raves and should be in line for his seventh acting nom (his sole win being 2015’s The Revenant). There was some question as to whether Gladstone would contend in lead or supporting. The buzz indicates the latter is more likely and it appears she’s a shoo-in for inclusion. I had her at #1 in my ranked predictions a few days ago and that may not change. A bigger question was Supporting Actor. It sounds like the role Jesse Plemons plays is relatively small (popping up in the third act). He could still sneak in (as he did in 2021 for The Power of the Dog). The studio’s campaigners could opt to throw their full attention to De Niro. The 79-year-old new dad looks to grab his eighth nod and first since 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. You can pencil him in with DiCaprio and Gladstone.
Can you find the nominees in this picture? There could be plenty for Killers of the Flower Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Today’s Daily Streaming Guide features two potboilers from the 1980s with political overtones. Both are available on Amazon Prime:
Brian De Palma’s 1981 effort Blow Out stars John Travolta, Nancy Allen, and John Lithgow. Arriving after a trio of hits for the lead (Saturday Night Fever, Grease, Urban Cowboy), audiences didn’t really know what to make of it upon release. It has since developed a deserved following (Quentin Tarantino is among the ardent fans). As a sound technician embroiled in a murder plot, Blow Out gives us one of Travolta’s finest performances.
Roger Donaldson’s 1987 noir pic No Way Out finds Kevin Costner as a Naval officer uncovering dirty deeds by Gene Hackman’s Defense Secretary. Costarring Sean Young, who’s involved in a love triangle with the leads, the film is a solid thriller that cemented Costner’s leading man status.
Charlize Theron’s Megyn Kelly and dozens of other women deal with their own monster in Jay Roach’s Bombshell, a retelling of the Fox News harassment scandal that ended the reign of founder Roger Ailes. The ripped from the headlines tale features outstanding performances, incredible makeup work, and at least a handful of scenes that strike the right chord.
The film focuses primarily on three women in different stages of dealing with Ailes, as played by John Lithgow. Kelly is the star with her own highly successful primetime hour and loads of ambition. Nicole Kidman’s Gretchen Carlson is seeing her career on the downslide. She’s been moved from a top rated morning show to the desert of afternoon programming. Much of this has to do with her rebuffing the advances of Ailes. Carlson is already making moves to hold Ailes accountable while Kelly is conflicted. The fictional and composite character of Kayla (Margot Robbie) is just starting her journey at the network. In many ways, her role is the most fascinating. They say don’t meet your heroes and as a young conservative landing her dream gig, she (and her family) worship at the altar of the Fox logo. When Kayla maneuvers an introduction to Roger, her nightmare begins and a scene where the head honcho “auditions” her is horrific.
Charles Randolph’s screenplay peppers in many characters involved in the sordid saga. This allows for plenty of recognizable faces playing very or semi recognizable figures, including Allison Janney as Ailes attorney Susan Estrich, Malcolm McDowell as Fox CEO Rupert Murdoch, and Richard Kind as loyal defender Rudy Giuliani. There’s also Kate McKinnon as Kayla’s confidante in the bullpen. Yet it’s the quartet of leads that eat up most screen time. Theron’s transformation to Kelly is pretty remarkable. Much of that is due to her performance and capturing her mannerisms, but the makeup work of Kazu Hiro and team must be mentioned. The writing of Ailes is well handled as the script doesn’t shy away from his creepiness. It also doesn’t shy away from his connection to people and that he got to the top of the mountain with his abilities. After all, it’s those traits that sadly allowed many to stay silent for so long. Robbie’s character is the most conflicted. Her eventual face to face with Kelly regarding Roger’s behavior takes an unexpected turn worthy of conversation afterwards.
Perhaps the best scene occurs in 2006 and it involves Rudi Bakhtiar (Nazanin Boniadi). Her harassment comes not from Ailes, but as a direct result of the culture he created. When her incident occurs, we hear her inner monologue while she attempts to navigate her way out of it. We know that so many others heard that voice and Bombshell holds our interest in showing us where those voices led them.
The true story of the sexual harassment claims took down Fox News CEO Roger Ailes is dropped in theaters next weekend with the release of Bombshell. Jay Roach directs Charlize Theron in the role of Megyn Kelly and Nicole Kidman as Gretchen Carlson. The supporting cast includes Margot Robbie, Kate McKinnon, Connie Britton, Malcolm McDowell, and John Lithgow as Ailes.
Bombshell, just today, was a surprise multiple nominee for the SAG Awards. It garnered four nods – Ensemble and the performances of Theron, Kidman, and Robbie. Whether or not Oscar nods follow remains to be seen, but it’s certainly in the mix. That buzz should help it gather some eyeballs, but it could experience a gradual rollout like many adult oriented holiday titles do.
The film opens directly against Cats, which will be going for much of the same demographic. There’s also Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which appeals to pretty much everyone. I believe this will be lucky to reach $10 million for its start. Yet this stands a solid chance at legging out positively in the weekends ahead.
Bombshell opening weekend prediction: $6.9 million
For my Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker prediction, click here:
It’s been two weeks since I’ve prognosticated Oscar picks on the blog and a lot has happened since then. The precursors are coming out in full force with the Golden Globe nominations out this morning and numerous critics bestowing their awards or nods.
The Globes potentially provided a needed boost to The Two Popes and displayed a better than anticipated showing for Joker.
So how have my estimates changed in the last 14 days? There’s been one change in all major categories with the exception of Director and Adapted Screenplay. They are:
In Best Picture, I’ve put Ford v Ferrari back in and taken out Bombshell. The official review embargo for Bombshell lapsed and the current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. It could still sneak in, but with that rating and a lack of precursor love, it’s certainly fallen.
My ongoing struggle with picking Best Actor candidates continues. Whittling it down to five is a challenge and that’s an understatement. As has been discussed previously, I truly believe all 10 listed performers could get in. For that matter, so could Paul Walter Hauser for Richard Jewell if that film does better with Academy voters than expected. This is the first time I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in with Antonio Banderas (recipient of some precursors) getting in. Look for this saga to continue until nominations morning.
In Best Actress, I’ve got Awkwafina in over Cynthia Erivo. This is basically a coin flip for the five spot and there’s also Lupita Nyong’o (another precursor favorite) as a spoiler.
Joe Pesci has done quite well in the precursors. He’s in over Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor.
Annette Bening is back in the fold over Zhao Shuzhen in Supporting Actress.
I’m putting Knives Out in Original Screenplay and that takes out Pain and Glory.
You can read the rest of the happenings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 12)
12. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Jewell (PR: 13)
15. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 9)
9. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 4)
7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
8. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taylor Russell, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hustlers (PR: 7)
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 6)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 4)
5. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 7)
7. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
8. Beanpole (PR: 8)
9. And Then We Danced (PR: 5)
10. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 6)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
4. For Sama (PR: 5)
5. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: 8)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maiden (PR: 3)
Dropped Out:
The Kingmaker
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Parasite (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Aladdin (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bomshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Waves (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
7. Cats (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. The Irishman (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Invisible Life, Knives Out, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, The Report, Sea of Shadows, Toy Story 4
Two key screenings took place over the week with significant Oscar implications and there’s some movement in major categories to discuss:
1917, the World War I epic from Sam Mendes, finally availed itself to critics and the feedback is extremely positive. While I’d had it projected for Picture and Director for some time, its numbers (3 and 2 respectively) are the highest yet.
Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell screened at AFI Fest. Some reviews indicate it’s a contender in Picture, but I’m not quite there. It does vault back in the 15 possibilities at 13 and both Paul Walter Hauser in Actor and Kathy Bates in Supporting Actress are now in the mix, but not projected in the top five.
Bombshell is back in my ten projected Picture nominees over Ford v Ferrari.
Zhao Shuzhen finally makes the cut in Supporting Actress, displacing Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
Tom Hanks slides to fifth in Supporting Actor after the so-so box office performance of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I suspect he could fall out with Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) hot on his heels.
While my five Best Actor contenders remain the same, this is the most packed field in ages. I could legitimately see any of my ten listed thespians getting in, as well as Christian Bale (who falls to 11th).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Bombshell (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 9)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
10. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knives Out (PR: 7)
9. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 9)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 8)
5. And Then We Danced (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
7. Atlantics (PR: 7)
8. Beanpole (PR: 5)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Missing Link (PR: 7)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. Maiden (PR: 6)
4. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
5. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 3)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
8. Honeyland (PR: 4)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: 8)
10. The Kingmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Edge of Democracy
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 9)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Judy (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jojo Rabbit
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
5. Us (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
7. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
8. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Show Yourself” from Frozen II
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 10)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
10. Aladdin (PR: 9)
And this all equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, Aladdin, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Us, Weathering with You
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 8)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: Not Rankled)
9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 5)
7. Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Waves (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Honey Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
1917
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Dark Waters
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Monos (PR: 4)
7. And Then We Danced (PR: 6)
8. A White, White Day (PR: 9)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 8)
10. Papicha (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tel Aviv on Fire
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 8)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 6)
9. Klaus (PR: 9)
10. Spies in Disguise (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Funan
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 5)
4. Maiden (PR: 3)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
For Sama
Diego Maradona
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
9. Parasite (PR: 7)
10. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
3. Rocketman (PR: 5)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 2)
5. Little Women (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 4)
7. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 10)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
7. Cats (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: 5)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
“One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. The Irishman (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 3)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Cats (PR: 10)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
10. Dumbo (PR: 10)
And that all equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Marriage Story
7 Nominations
1917, Little Women
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Joker, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, One Child Nation, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
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