Three years ago at the Sundance Film Festival, Sophie Hyde premiered her dramedy Good Luck to You, Leo Grande where Emma Thompson earned an Actress (Musical or Comedy) nom. It also rounded up a few BAFTA mentions. In 2025, the writer/director is back in Park City with Jimpa. Olivia Colman stars as a mom taking her non-binary teen to visit their gay grandpa (or Jimpa) in Amsterdam. John Lithgow is the title character with newcomer Aud Mason-Hyde as the teen. Costars include Tilda Cobham-Hervey, Daniel Henshall, Kate Box, Eamon Farren, and Zoë Love Smith.
Colman had a four year Oscar run where she achieved 3 nominations: 2018’s The Favourite (where she won), 2020’s The Father in supporting, and 2021’s The Lost Daughter in lead. Lithgow nabbed back-to-back mentions in Supporting Actor over four decades ago with 1982’s The World According to Garp and 1983’s Terms of Endearment (winning neither). Both of these roles seem like Academy bait.
However, initial reaction is mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. Perhaps its eventual distributor will mount a campaign. Lithgow, in what’s said to be quite a revealing role, seems due for one. His turn in Conclave last year turned out not to be that part as costars Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini were the focal points. I’m just not convinced this’ll be a major awards player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:
Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.
There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.
So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.
That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.
There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.
With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.
Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.
Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.
Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.
Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).
There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!
Spellbound is not a remake of the Alfred Hitchcock classic with Ingmar Bergman and Gregory Peck. It’s an animated musical fantasy from Vicky Jenson (who directed the first Best Animated Feature Oscar victor Shrek) that’s out on Netflix today. Rachel Zegler, John Lithgow, Jenifer Lewis, Titus Burgess, Nathan Lane, Javier Bardem, and Nicole Kidman lend their voices to the project.
This is the second project from Skydance Animation after 2022’s Luck. That feature (which premiered on AppleTV+) drew mixed reviews and attracted scant awards attention. With 62% on Rotten Tomatoes and 54 on Metacritic, the storyline should be the same for Spellbound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Academy hopeful Conclave materializes in theaters on October 25th. Based on the Robert Harris novel, Ralph Fiennes headlines the thriller as a cardinal in charge of selecting the new Pope. Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, Isabella Rossellini, and Lucien Msamati costar. Edward Berger, following up his nine-time Oscar nominee All Quiet on the Western Front from 2022, directs.
With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic, Conclave is expected to vie for multiple awards races including Best Picture. That buzz could assist in bringing in an adult audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if it starts out in the mid to possibly high single digits as it hopes for meager declines in later weekends. This forecast could change based on its final released screen count.
Conclave opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
For my Venom: The Last Dance prediction, click here:
The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.
There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.
We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.
For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)
10. TheRoom Next Door (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Queer
Nosferatu
The Apprentice
All We Imagine as Light
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Piano Lesson
Wicked
Juror No. 2
His Three Daughters
A Different Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress
Lesley Manville, Queer
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Harris Dickinson, Blitz
Mark Eidelstein, Anora
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
John Lithgow, Conclave
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Dídi
Kinds of Kindness
A Different Man
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Still Here
Gladiator II
Nightbitch
Inside Out 2
Nosferatu
The Wild Robot
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Queer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
“Why Am I Here” from Shirley
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper
To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.
Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.
Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.
There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.
In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.
And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.
Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)
16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)
20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)
21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)
22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Maria
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
André Holland, The Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Graham, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Fire Inside
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Count of Monte Cristo
Cloud
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Alien: Romulus
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.
Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.
The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.
Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.
The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.
Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).
In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.
The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.
You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)
20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)
25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hard Truths
The End
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)
9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Valeria Golino, Maria
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)
Dropped Out:
Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The End
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Evil Does Not Exist
Simon of the Mountain
Uprising
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Transformers One
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Union
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Queer
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Sasquatch Sunset
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wicked
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Edward Berger’s Conclave has premiered at Telluride prior to its November 1st domestic release. It is the filmmaker’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to 2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front, which garnered nine Oscar nominations with victories in International Feature Film, Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave is based on a 2016 novel by Robert Harris. The thriller focuses on the behind closed doors battle to be the next Pope. Ralph Fiennes stars with Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini, Lucian Msamati, and Carlos Diehz supporting.
Long seen as a potential across the board awards player, Conclave has seemingly lived up to the hype based on initial chatter. That especially holds true with Fiennes. The veteran actor has only been in contention twice at the Academy Awards for 1993’s Schindler’s List in supporting and 1996’s The English Patient in lead. Early reviews indicated that he’s not only a contender, but a threat to win.
The supporting cast is a little trickier to figure out. There is a possibility that Focus Features may train their focus on Fiennes for the gold. If anyone comes along for the ride, it appears Tucci might have an edge for Lithgow or Msamati. In Supporting Actress, Rossellini’s role is said to be small but crucial. Her inclusion should depend on how competition plays out. I don’t see any of the supporting performers as threats to emerge victorious.
I’ve had Conclave in my Best Picture lineup the whole way and that feels validated this weekend. I don’t think Berger is automatic for Director. Yet the fact that he was notably snubbed for Western Front could help his chances. Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound are all possibilities. For a movie about a high profile campaign, Conclave appears ready to start its own. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In eights days, the Venice Film Festival will get underway followed the next day by Telluride and followed by Toronto the following week. The trio of events, as they always do, kick off a flurry of awards activity and dozens of Oscar Prediction posts on this blog. The fests in Italy, Colorado, and Canada will make the picture for the 97th Academy Awards considerably clearer.
As you peruse the titles listed below, here are just some which will debut at one or more of the festivals: Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The End, Maria, Nightbitch, Babygirl, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Piece by Piece, and The Last Showgirl.
The plan is for my next update to arrive on Labor Day. By that time, quite a few of these titles will already have eyeballs on them and reviews will be written. Consider this the penultimate forecast before it gets really real.
This update comes with a pair of changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) enters my quintet with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) dropping out. Speaking of Conclave, John Lithgow is now in my Supporting Actor five over his costar Stanley Tucci.
You can peruse all the movement below as festival season is nearly upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (E)
12. Saturday Night (PR: 18) (+6)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 12) (-3)
16. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Maria (PR: 17) (-1)
19. The End (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 24) (+2)
23. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
24. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Fire Inside
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (E)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothèe Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Selena Gomez, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (E)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, The Deliverance
Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (E)
15. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Raci, Sing Sing
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The End (PR: 9) (+1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dídi (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Maria (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12 (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 13) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Caught by the Tides (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Uprising (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kneecap
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Land (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Union (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anora (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Challengers (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
The Piano Lesson
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (-1)
7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Mufasa: The Lion King
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, Challengers, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, The Outrun, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.
One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.
I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.
The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.
Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.
I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)
20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)
21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)
24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
All We Imagine as Light
I Saw the TV Glow
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)
8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)
9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
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