The nation of Tunisia has seen only one of their pictures nominated for Best International Feature Film at the Oscars and that was 2020’s The ManWho Sold His Skin. Kaouther Ben Hania was the director and her follow-up is The Voice of Hind Rajab, which has premiered at Venice and will soon play in Toronto. Focused on the true story of a five-year-old’s killing in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, it has already been announced as Tunisia’s entrant for IFF.
Critical reaction thus far has resulted in a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes and the praise in Venice has been effusive including a reported 23 minute ovation. Executive producers on the project include Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Rooney Mara, and Alfonso Cuaròn. It is fair to assume that Voice will receive a major campaign from its as yet unannounced distributor. The international category already has plenty of viable contenders including frontrunner Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, and The Secret Agent to name just four. Even with that caveat, the Academy may not be able to ignore this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.
The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.
Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.
Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $122.4 million
2. Superman
Predicted Gross: $28 million
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. F1
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. Smurfs
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (July 18-20)
Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.
Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.
While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.
Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.
F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.
Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).
Two new franchise reboots will attempt to exceed expectations and post strong second and third place showings while two existing franchise reboots seek to stay 1-2. I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs are the rookie contenders. We also have Ari Aster’s Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:
I Know What You Did Last Summer continues the horror saga we witnessed in the late 90s. I think this has the potential to hit low 20s, but I’ll go along with projections in the mid to higher teens. My take puts it not far behind Jurassic World Rebirth for third place.
As for Smurfs, this reinvigoration of this franchise after eight years is not expected to yield impressive results. Like Summer, it could top general forecasts. However, I’m agreeing that low double digits to possibly low teens will be the result and that means fourth place.
I’m not expecting audiences to visit Eddington. The satire, despite some star power, is flying under the radar. As mentioned in my post, I don’t anticipate a desire from moviegoers to revisit the heyday of the COVID pandemic when this is set. My $3.4 million projection would leave it outside the top five and probably in seventh place.
There’s no real mystery what will place first and that would be James Gunn’s Superman in its sophomore outing. The only question is how much it drops in weekend #2. A number close to Thunderbolts* (56%) from earlier this summer would make sense. I doubt it plummets to the degree that 2013’s Man of Steel did at 65%. I’ll say mid to high 50s is the most likely result.
Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:
1. Superman
Predicted Gross: $56.2 million
2. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
3. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
4. Smurfs
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
5. F1
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (July 11-13)
Superman, as predicted, blasted off with the third best opening of 2025 at $125 million. That’s a tad shy of my $128.6 million call. Generally in line with its anticipated range, it gets this iteration of the DC Universe off to a respectable start and the A- Cinemascore grade is decent as well.
Jurassic World Rebirth held better than I figured with $40.3 million in second compared to my $34.2 million estimate. The dino tale stands at $232 million after ten days and it should be safe to assume the franchise isn’t extinct.
F1 was third with $13 million (I said $13.3 million) as the racing drama has made $136 million after three weeks.
How to Train Your Dragon was fourth with $7.9 million, rising above my $6.8 million forecast for a five-week haul of $239 million.
Finally, Disney’s disappointing Elio took the 5 spot with $4 million (I went with $3.4 million). The four-week gross is $63 million.
Ari Aster’s fourth feature Eddington hits screens July 18th after a May premiere at Cannes. The small town set satire takes place during the height of COVID with Joaquin Phoenix (who starred in Aster’s predecessor Beau is Afraid) and the suddenly everywhere Pedro Pascal headlining. Other cast members include Luke Grimes, Deirdre O’Connell, Micheal Ward, Austin Butler, and Emma Stone.
Reviews from the French fest were mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. That buzz zapped any awards chatter for the A24 feature. This has the appearance of an autumn release trapped in midsummer and I am doubtful that adult crowds will turn up. For one thing, audiences might be hesitant to relive the lockdown days of a half decade ago. If this gets over $5 million, I’d be surprised.
Eddington opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my I Know What You Did Last Summer prediction, click here:
A contemporary Western set during the early days of COVID, Eddington is Ari Aster’s fourth feature which has premiered at Cannes prior to its July 18th stateside release. A24’s topical tale reunites Aster with his Beau Is Afraid lead Joaquin Phoenix along with Pedro Pascal, Luke Grimes, Deirdre O’Connell, Micheal Ward, Austin Butler, and Emma Stone.
The auteur’s career kicked off with Hereditary and Midsommar, two horror experiences that are among the genre’s best reviewed in recent years. Beau had a considerably more polarizing reaction and Eddington appears to be doing the same. Early reviews have this at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 67 Metacritic.
While the strongest reviews are quite strong, the varied buzz from France likely means this won’t be a serious awards contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.
The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:
Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.
However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).
Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).
There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).
That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?
Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.
Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.
Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.
Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.
For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.
OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is picking up the kind of precursor recognition that may lead to a Best Picture nomination. Whether it ultimately makes the cut is, well, a complete unknown. The Fox Searchlight release is out Christmas Day with Timothée Chalamet as the legendary singer and Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook, and Scoot McNairy providing support.
The review embargo is lifted with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and 70 on Metacritic. It is fair to say critical reaction is more mixed than plenty of other contenders. Yet praise for Chalamet’s work is consistent and he appears poised for his second Academy nod after being up in Supporting Actor for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. This time he’ll be playing in lead and he’s a threat to win. As for the rest of the cast, Norton (as Pete Seeger) just landed a Golden Globe nod. His inclusion at the Oscars is possible, but not a slam dunk like the headliner. Fanning and Barbaro are both generating complimentary notices, but Supporting Actress may be too crowded.
Down the line nods like Costume Design, Production Design, and (especially) Sound are achievable though I wouldn’t be surprised to see none of those ultimately materialize. The biggest question mark is indeed Picture. I don’t see Director and Adapted Screenplay happening. Unknown has made the AFI and NBR top tens and got a Best Motion Picture (Drama) slot at the Globes where they honor six hopefuls.
Mangold’s Walk the Line from 2005 (his biopic about Johnny Cash) received a handful of nods. Reese Witherspoon took home the Actress statue as June Carter Cash while Joaquin Phoenix was nominated for Actor. It contended in Film Editing, Costume Design, and Sound. I see a range of possibilities for Complete. One is Chalamet being nominated (a given) and that’s it. Under that scenario, a win could be trickier. He could also be in the mix with perhaps just Sound or another tech race or two. A best case scenario would be Unknown grabbing the ninth or tenth BP spot along with a combo of the aforementioned. It that happens, it’ll be an honor for it to be nominated in the biggest race while Chalamet goes for the victory. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Denzel Washington’s work in Gladiator II is so strong and he is so entertaining to watch that it’s a bit distracting. There are other distractions that are undoubtedly negatives like subpar CG baboons and the choice to fill the Colosseum with frickin sharks. With the two-time Oscar winner having a ball as an ambitious former slave turned gladiator manager, it made me want the movie to be trained more on him. Instead his Macrinus is trapped in a long gestating sequel to the 2000 Best Picture recipient that might not work much at all without him. It’s like if Denzel’s Alonzo Harris character in Training Day was dropped into a Fast and Furious flick. There’s plenty of fun to be had thanks to him, but it stalls when he’s not around.
Ridley Scott returns to the director’s chair for this follow-up set 16 years after Maximus (Russell Crowe) drew his brave last breath in Rome. The city is not in great shape although the expansive wide shots make it look breathtaking. Co-emperors Geta (Joseph Quinn) and Caracella (Fred Hechinger) are unstable rulers with a thirst for overpowering more territories. Caracella is also a syphilitic lunatic with a pet monkey he eventually empowers so that’s good for a couple of bonkers moments. The boys’ chief general is Acadius (Pedro Pascal) who’s married to Lucilla (Connie Nielsen). As you’ll recall, she is the sister to Gladiator‘s Commodus (Joaquin Phoenix) and former lover to Crowe’s Maximus. Acadius conquers, but he conquers with compassion (awww). He has plans to depose Geta and Caracella (and maybe that monkey) and return Rome to its former glory.
It’s not, I realize, an accident that it’s taken until paragraph 3 to mention the star of the movie. That would be Lucius (Paul Mescal). Introduced to us as Hanno, he’s living a seemingly pleasant laundry hanging life with his wife in the province of Numidia when Acadius and his army come a’conquering. His wife’s screen time is short-lived (just like Maximus’s in the original) and he’s soon vowing revenge on the Roman power structure. Lucius was a boy in the first film played by Spencer Treat Clark – son of Maximus and Lucilla who was sent away for his own protection. Maybe I should have said spoiler alert with the lineage reveal, but it’s right there in the trailer.
When Denzel’s Macrinus offers him a chance to achieve vengeance, Lucius is booked for battle in the same Colosseum like his departed dad. That brings us back to dodgy computer generated baboons and filling the iconic arena with sharks. Apparently water logged events did occur at that venue historically though the participation of the finned feeders was unlikely. The fights are more effective in Gladiator II on the human scale when they don’t involve aquatic or jungle creatures.
The film’s biggest flaw is that Mescal’s Lucius doesn’t have the screen presence that Crowe did. He’s not helped by the screenplay where he’s a bit of a blank slate. Maximus struck fear onscreen when he was unmasked and revealed as a super warrior. I didn’t buy it as much with his offspring when he comes out and plays.
Washington, though, is a blast as he schemes for power (and probably his 10th Oscar nomination). I’d offer that Gladiator II is worth watching for him. Yes, there’s plenty of impressive technical work and sometimes it elevates beyond a rehash of part 1’s beats (though often it doesn’t). Without Macrinus in attendance, the Colosseum would feel considerably emptier.
Nearly 25 years after Ridley Scott’s original epic stormed the box office and the Academy Awards, Gladiator II enters cinematic arenas on November 22nd. Paul Mescal stars as Lucius, son of Russell Crowe’s Maximus with Scott back in the director’s chair. Costars include Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Derek Jacobi, Connie Nielsen (back as the sister to Joaquin Phoenix’s departed Commodus), and Denzel Washington (generating Oscar buzz for his role).
With a reported budget north of $200 million, the long-in-development sequel should capitalize on a quarter century of goodwill from the Best Picture winning part 1. Reviews are decent with 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic.
The $60-$75 million forecast for its debut sounds about right. I am hesitant to take the over as some viewers may wait until the following Thanksgiving frame to make the multiplex trek. I’ll put it in the upper end of that range for a second place showing to Wicked.
Gladiator II opening weekend prediction: $69.8 million
At the dawn of the 21st century, Ridley Scott’s epic Gladiator scored a colossal 12 Oscar nominations and won a handful including Best Picture, Actor (Russell Crowe), Costume Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Other nods included Scott’s direction (he lost to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic), Supporting Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Original Screenplay.
Nearly a quarter century later, Gladiator II is in multiplexes November 22nd. Its battle for Academy recognition could be more challenging. Scott returns behind the camera with Paul Mescal leading a cast that includes Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Connie Nielsen (reprising her role from part 1), and Denzel Washington.
As can sometimes be the case, initial screening reactions from the long-in-development sequel might have been a tad hyperbolic. The review embargo lifted today paints a clearer picture. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 78% with Metacritic at 67. Somewhat surprisingly, that’s in line with its predecessor’s numbers. Yet most critics say this doesn’t measure up to the original.
A Best Picture nom is not out of the question, but I’m currently projecting it won’t make the cut. Its strongest shot in BP will come if voters feel the need to throw at least a couple massive blockbusters in the mix. Dune: Part Two and Wicked (which opens the same day) could fit the bill. Mr. Scott’s direction and the screenplay are long shots. As for the down the line competitions, it could land mentions in Costume Design, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Original Score is possible but unlikely and I’d say the same for Cinematography. When it comes to wins in those tech derbies, it’ll have to contend with Dune which is in a better position for victories.
While Crowe and nemesis Joaquin Phoenix were both up for their performances at the 73rd ceremony, only Denzel Washington seems to be viable at the 97th. He’s being singled out for his work and could be headed toward nomination #10 in Supporting Actor. If he makes the final quintet, a win is probably not in the cards as I’d certainly put him behind Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) at press time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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