Tag: Jim Henson

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

Arriving in wide release exactly 49 years to the day from the event it showcases, Saturday Night expands nationwide on October 11th. From Jason Reitman, the dramedy recounts the 90 minutes leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle stars as Lorne Michaels with a large supporting cast including Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith (getting a lot of solid buzz as Chevy Chase), Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (pulling double duty as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Cooper Hoffman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste (who also provides the score).

The behind the scenes showbiz tale first premiered at Telluride to mostly favorable reaction. The RT score is 80% with 63 on Metacritic. This could contend for one of the ten slots in Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but it’s not a slam dunk nominee.

Opening just as SNL kicks off its 50th season certainly helps exposure. It debuted in five venues on September 27th in New York and L.A. to a robust $53k per screen average (second best this year after Kinds of Kindness). Saturday Night expands slightly on October 4th before the 2000 screen rollout on the 49th anniversary.

This was rightly anticipated to start out well on the coasts. I’m unconvinced general audiences will make this a sizable hit even with the (not exactly loud) awards chatter and decades long familiarity with the source material. I’m not sure this gets to $10 million and I’m putting it under.

Saturday Night opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Saturday Night

Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?

The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.

Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.

As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.

At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Jim Henson Idea Man

Ahead of its May 31st bow on Disney+, Jim Henson Idea Man has premiered at Cannes. The high profile doc chronicles the life of the famed puppeteer including his creation of Sesame Street and the Muppets. Oscar winner Ron Howard directs.

It is a safe assumption that this will be one of the most viewed documentaries of 2024. Critical reaction is appreciative though some of the early reviews aren’t overly glowing. The RT score is 88%.

The voters in this particular branch of the Academy often don’t go for pics based on iconic figures. Two recent examples include Won’t You Be My Neighbor? from 2018 and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie from last year. I suspect the story may play out the same for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Five Nights at Freddy’s Review

Let’s start with the fact with Mike Schmidt (Josh Hutcherson), the night guard at the now abandoned entertainment center in Five Nights at Freddy’s is just bad at his job. It’s an excuse to sleep, but there’s a purpose. He’s trying to conjure up the circumstances of what happened to his kidnapped brother years ago. Mike believes his visions during the dreams will lead to finding his sibling or at least uncovering who took him. Emma Tammi’s adaptation of the wildly successful video game series that began in 2014 (which I have no familiarity with) might lead to counting sheep as well, especially in the first half. That’s instead of counting on the animatronic animals to provide worthy scares. It doesn’t happen often.

The genealogical drama doesn’t stop at the protagonist’s abduction visions. He also has a much younger sister Abby (Piper Rubio). Their aunt (Mary Stuart Masterson) wants custody for the paycheck. Mike is desperate for employment to keep little sis with him. He reluctantly accepts the graveyard shift at Freddy Fazbear’s Pizza. Matthew Lillard of Scream distinction interviews him for the gig. The long closed pie shop with four singing critters probably would’ve been an awesome experience back in the 1980s. I could imagine Eleven and the Stranger Things gang or a Goonie hanging at it while working with a better script. Freddy’s is mysteriously not torn down. Kindly and pretty policewoman Vanessa (Elizabeth Lail) tells Mike they have a tough time keeping guards on duty. Apparently security during the day is not warranted.

By night 3 of Mike’s gig that he can’t stay alert for, he is forced to bring Abby along. That’s at about the midway point when we already know the house band is capable of wreaking havoc on unwanted visitors. They befriend Abby while Mike is confounded by their existence. At least he’s awake now even if Hutcherson’s performance is missing much of a pulse. I was less groggy too after muddling through the Schmidt family misfortunes for almost an hour. The bear, rabbit, chick, and fox come from Jim Henson’s Creature Shop and they are effective creature designs.

If only the screenplay (cowritten by the game’s creator Scott Cawthorn) allowed them to play more in their venue. We have a promising setting that is underutilized. I know this is massively successful IP with millions of young diehard fans and maybe this will deliver for them. Regular old horror fans unfamiliar with the source material (like me) have to settle for infrequent PG-13 frights. I found myself hungering to see what kind of Reagan era games occurred when kiddie customers were devouring mediocre pizza instead of the overly plotted mechanics served here. That makes it hard to recommend one night in this setting so I just say no.

** (out of four)

The Happytime Murders Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/18/18): I am revising my estimate from $17.8 million down to $13.8 million

The Happytime Murders drops in theaters next weekend with a very simple concept to draw moviegoers in: Puppets Gone Wild! The very R-rated comic crime tale imagines a world where humans and puppets coexist. It comes from Brian Henson (son of Jim), who made the more family oriented Muppet pics The Muppet Christmas Carol and Muppet Treasure Island in the 1990s. Melissa McCarthy headlines the human cast along with Elizabeth Banks, Maya Rudolph, and Joel McHale. Bill Barretta is the puppet detective who used to work with McCarthy’s character.

The film’s tagline – “All Sesame, No Street” – resulted in a lawsuit from the makers of the long-running PBS program. As you could correctly guess from the red-band trailers, they had no involvement in this particular project.

Happytime should rise or fall at the box office based on audience curiosity in its gimmick. Finding reasonable comparisons for this is a tricky proposition. Two summers ago, the animated Sausage Party rode a wave of good buzz to a fantastic $34 million debut. However, this doesn’t seem to be generating similar chatter as of yet. If we want to go back in dirty puppet history, Team America: World Police earned just over $12 million in the fall of 2004.

The participation of McCarthy could help, but this is not the type of material her fans may typically rush to see. I’ll say Murders manages a debut in the mid to high teens and its word-of-mouth (positive or negative) will determine what transpires in the weeks following.

The Happytime Murders opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million

For my A.X.L. prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/a-x-l-box-office-prediction/

Muppets Most Wanted Box Office Prediction

Kermit, Missy Piggy and company are back nearly two and a half years following their well-received return in The Muppets with Muppets Most Wanted, out Friday. Over the Thanksgiving holiday in 2011, The Muppets took in $29 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $41 million over the five day holiday frame. The pic went on to gross a respectable $88 million.

Director James Bobin and cowriter Nicholas Stoller are back though original stars Jason Segel and Amy Adams do not return. Most Wanted features Ricky Gervais, Tina Fey, and Ty Burrell, but what really matters is our favorite Muppets are all returning. Some prognosticators are pegging this to gross around $30 million or more this weekend. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, but I have a gut feeling that the franchise Jim Henson built will have underwhelming results this time around.

Family audiences have had no shortage of quality flicks to enjoy recently – including blockbusters Frozen, The LEGO Movie, and the current #1 Mr. Peabody and Sherman. Entering its third weekend, Peabody should still post solid numbers and could take a bite out of the Muppet pie. Teenagers will likely be distracted by Divergent, which is primed for a big opening.

My prediction reflects a belief that Muppets Most Wanted will fall under what its predecessor did for only a so-so debut.

Muppets Most Wanted opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million

For my Divergent prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/divergent-box-office-prediction/