With backing from upstart Angel Studios and a budget below $15 million, action thriller Sound of Freedom has unquestionably become the summer’s sleeper hit. When it was released on July 4th, it came in under the radar screens of many prognosticators (including this one). The marketing campaign was clever with a pay it forward angle allowing viewers to purchase tickets afterwards for their family and friends. Combine that with an emphasis on appealing to conservative and faith-based crowds and the Jim Caviezel vehicle took off in a way few anticipated. After its second weekend in release, the gross stands at over $85 million stateside. It actually increased its box office haul in weekend #2 by over 35%. That doesn’t happen often.
Moviegoers are liking what they see. The Cinemascore grade is a rare A+ and the Rotten Tomatoes score for the masses is 100%. As for the official reviews, the RT meter is a favorable though far from overwhelming 72%.
Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have thought to do an awards write-up on Freedom. Yet I suspect the film’s target audience will push for its inclusion to Academy members in Best Picture, Actor, and Original Screenplay. It is extremely unlikely to materialize, but expect to see lots of social media chatter advocating for it in the early part of 2024. If Caviezel’s mega-grossing The Passion of the Christ nearly 20 years ago couldn’t get on Academy’s radar, this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Tom Cruise hopes to follow up the biggest hit of his career with a franchise best opening for the signature franchise as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opens on Wednesday. It is the only newcomer out and you can peruse detailed prediction post on it here:
Cruise’s star power is the highest it’s been in years coming off the nearly billion and a half plus earning Top Gun: Maverick from last summer. In order to post the largest start among the seven missions, Reckoning will need to top the $61 million made by predecessor Fallout in 2018. I’m projecting it will do so with over $10 million to spare and bring in over $100 million when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers.
The real battle should be for second place. Coming off a surprise victory, Insidious: The Red Door should experience the heftiest decline (mid 60s) of the top five. This might cause a drop of 1st to 4th if Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny falls in the 50-55% range.
Sound of Freedom, the thriller from upstart Angel Studios, was the real story of the previous frame (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, it should have the smallest decline other than Elemental in fifth position. If the dip is lower than my estimated 40%, it might just manage to rise from third to second. I’ll give Indy the slight edge. However, it might be worth keeping an eye on daily grosses throughout the week.
Here’s how I see the high five playing out:
1. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Predicted Gross: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
3. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Insidious: The Red Door
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (July 7-9)
As mentioned, horror fans were ready for scares as Insidious: The Red Door opened impressively. The fifth pic in the series which started in 2010 posted the second highest debut behind #2 in 2013 with $33 million. That’s beyond my $25.2 million prediction as the Sony/Blumhouse production has already doubled its reported $16 million budget.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was second in weekend #2 after its lackluster beginning. Sliding 55%, the $27.4 million gross was on pace with my $28 million take. The fifth go-round in this franchise is at $122 million after ten disappointing days for Disney.
The aforementioned Sound of Freedom employed shrewd marketing tactics that included a pay it forward method where viewers could purchase tickets for others. Jim Caviezel’s tale of taking on human traffickers reached its intended conservative and faith-based crowd and then some. The Friday to Sunday haul was $19.6 million for third place, easily outpacing my $12.5 million estimate. Since its unveiling on Tuesday, July 4th, the total is $41 million. Needless to say, Angel Studios has established itself as a player in the box office game.
Elemental was fourth with $10 million, ahead of my $8 million projection. Pixar’s latest finally crossed the century mark at $109 million.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $7.8 million) for $357 million overall.
Finally, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride stalled. It was sixth with just $5.8 million compared to my $8.4 million prediction.
After a subpar start, Harrison Ford’s fifth go-round as the iconic fedora clad archaeologist hopes to repeat at #1. The fifth edition of a horror franchise could disrupt that as Insidious: The Red Door swings in. We also have the critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride and action pic Sound of Freedom from upstart Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
After a lackluster haul (more on that below), Dr. Jones and company might see a sophomore drop in the low 50s. While the B+ Cinemascore grade exceeds the B that crowds gave predecessor Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, it still indicates middling enthusiasm moving forward. My high 20s take does mean a repeat performance atop the charts.
That’s because I have Insidious: The Red Door in the mid 20s. While that’s under the $29 million that The Last Key opened with in 2018, it is still a fine result for the 13-year-old franchise.
The weekend’s wild card is Sound of Freedom. Jim Caviezel’s turn as a vigilante taking on human traffickers is being championed by faith-based and conservative groups. This resulted in a terrific $14 million bounty when it started on July 4th. How it legs out is anyone’s guess and I’m going with a low double digits Friday-Sunday number. That would put it solidly in third.
As for Joy Ride, critics are being kind and the studio is hoping for a Crazy Rich Asians style sleeper hit. The hard R rating could prevent that and my sub $10 million projection puts it in fourth just ahead of animated holdovers Elemental and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
And with that, here’s how I foresee the top 6 shaking out:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Predicted Gross: $28 million
2. Insidious: The Red Door
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million
3. Sound of Freedom
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
4. Joy Ride
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Elemental
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)
Considering Crystal Skull in 2008 made off with $100 million for its Friday to Sunday portion of a holiday weekend, the $60.3 million for Dial of Destiny is a major letdown for Disney. I wasn’t much more generous at $65.3 million. When it premiered in Cannes over a month ago, its mediocre reaction set the table for a disappointing gross. Perhaps more importantly is that it didn’t play for younger audiences whose reverence for the series isn’t matched by the 40 and up crowd.
Disney/Pixar’s Elemental, after a troubling start, continued to level off nicely in weekend #3. It was second with $12.1 million, in line with my $12.7 million prediction for a three-week $89 million tally.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $12 million compared to my $13.5 million estimate. The Sony juggernaut has amassed $340 million.
Jennifer Lawrence’s No Hard Feelings was fourth with $7.8 million (I went higher at $89 million). The ten-day take is $29 million which is fairly decent for a genre that’s struggled in recent times.
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $7.3 million. I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The total is $136 million.
Finally, DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken was a major flop in sixth with only $5.5 million. I was kinder at $7.8 million. With serious kiddie competition, parents opted for leftovers like Elemental and Spidey.
Angel Studios, the company behind The Chosen and His Only Son, hopes to find passionate fans with the action flick Sound of Freedom. From director Alejandro Monteverde, Jim Caviezel stars as a vigilante taking on human traffickers. Costars include Mira Sorvino, Bill Camp, and Kurt Fuller.
With a reported budget under $15 million, Freedom rolled out on July 4th with hopes for a healthy six-day run (I’ll confess that this was under my radar). It’s already nabbed a very impressive $14 million due to Angel’s unique form of crowdfunding and marketing to a targeted conservative audience.
This certainly has the ability to outpace any expectations and I do believe a Friday to Sunday take exceeding $10 million is achievable. That should put it in third place behind Indiana Jones and the Dial Destiny and Insidious: The Red Door.
Sound of Freedom opening weekend prediction: $12.5 million (Friday to Sunday estimate)
For my Insidious: The Red Door prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (03/19): The reported 1400 theater count has caused me to downsize my Apostle prediction from $10.3 million to just $5.5 million.
Rising in theaters a week before the Easter holiday frame is Paul, ApostleofChrist. The Biblical drama casts Jim Faulkner as Saint Paul and Jim Caviezel as Saint Luke. The supporting cast includes Olivier Martinez and Joanne Whalley. Andrew Wyatt directs.
Faith based pictures are often tricky to project, but its pre Easter release date should only help. It also doesn’t hurt that Caviezel starred in the highest grossing (by far) genre entry, 2004’s ThePassionoftheChrist.
There is some competition for the same audience as the more contemporary Christian themed ICanOnlyImagine will be in its sophomore weekend. A decent comp for Apostle could be 2016’s Risen, which earned $11.8 million for its beginning. I’ll put it a bit under that.
Paul, ApostleofChrist opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
The sports drama When the Game Stands Tall opens Friday, in conjunction with football season starting up. Inspired by a true story, the TriStar release focuses on a high school’s team 151 game winning streak and stars Jim Caviezel, Laura Dern, and Michael Chiklis. Thomas Carter, who directed one successful similar genre pic Coach Carter with Samuel L. Jackson, is behind the camera.
Earlier this summer, another sports pic Million Dollar Arm starring Jon Hamm, stumbled out of the gate with only a $10.5 million opening. That picture had Disney behind it and a more recognizable star. If Arm performed badly, it’s tough to see how this breaks through with audiences. Unless the timing of its release helps, Tall is probably primed for a subpar opening. There’s also the issue of many high school football fans might, you know, actually be watching a high school football game this Friday night.
When the Game Stands Tall opening weekend prediction: $9 million
For my Sin City: A Dame to Kill For prediction, click here:
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