Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale Box Office Prediction

Arriving 15 years after the acclaimed TV series that have now spawned three feature films, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is out September 12th. Simon Curtis, who directed 2022’s Downton Abbey: A New Era, returns with franchise creator Julian Fellowes scripting. Returning cast members from the small and big screen include Hugh Bonneville, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter, Raquel Cassidy, Paul Copley, Brendan Coyle, Michelle Dockery, Paul Giamatti, Elizabeth McGovern, Dominic West, and Penelope Wilton. Newcomers to the proceedings are Joely Richardson, Alessandro Nivola, Simon Russell Beale, and Arty Froushan.

Fans of the series were anxious to go Downton in 2019 when the first movie premiered four years after the show went off air. The domestic opening was $31 million with a $96 million eventual gross. In 2022, the figures for New Era dwindled to a $16 million start and $44 million overall.

Grand could potentially benefit from its Finale moniker, but I’m not counting on it. I think it’ll open in range with its predecessor and maybe a touch higher.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million

For my Demon Slayer: Kimestu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:

For my The Long Walk prediction, click here:

For my Spinal Tap II: The End Continues prediction, click here:

Wonka Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros hopes audiences will take a look and then they’ll see pure dollar signs when Wonka opens December 15th. Timothee Chalamet takes over the iconic title role already filled by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2015. The musical fantasy comes from Paul King, best known for Paddington and its sequel. Costars include Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Boynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant.

An origin story about Roald Dahl’s eccentric chocolatier, the $125 million budgeted confection is generating mostly strong reviews at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hoping to sell lots of golden tickets, it could experience small declines in the holiday weekends ahead.

That may mean its debut isn’t gigantic even though it could be solid. The rosiest out of the gate projections could be in the mid 40s to even $50 million. I’ll say it starts in the mid 30s but word-of-mouth and the time of year could propel it to impressive holds in the future.

Wonka opening weekend prediction: $36.4 million

Oscar Predictions: Wonka

Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.

The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).

Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.

One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Downton Abbey: A New Era Box Office Prediction

The sprawling cast of Brits is back on screen May 20th in Downton Abbey: A New Era. Based on the popular series that ran on PBS domestically from 2010-2015, Era is the sequel to the 2019 cinematic rendering. Simon Curtis takes over directorial duties from Michael Engler. The familiar returnees include Hugh Bonneville, Elizabeth McGovern, Maggie Smith, Michelle Dockery, Jim Carter, Penelope Wilton, and Samantha Bond. Creator Julian Fellowes handles script duties.

Three years back, Abbey easily opened atop the charts with $31 million and an eventual $96 million gross. This won’t manage a #1 start with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in its third frame. It should certainly nab the runner-up position.

The question is whether it comes close to what its predecessor started with. Forecasts have this only making about half of what part 1 achieved out of the gate. Considering the 2019 experience surpassed projections, I’ll give this a slight benefit of the doubt.

Downton Abbey: A New Era opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million

For my Men prediction, click here:

Men Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Downton Abbey: A New Era

After the original grossed nearly $200 million worldwide in 2019, the sequel to Downton Abbey subtitled A New Era arrives in theaters on May 20. It’s in UK cinemas this Friday with the majority of the cast from the series it’s based on (which ran domestically on PBS) returning.

With Simon Curtis (maker of My Week with Marilyn and Woman in Gold) taking over directorial duties from Michael Engler, early reviews for part II are in line with its predecessor. 2019’s Abbey has an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating while Era‘s currently sits at 78%.

The TV show scored a heaping on Emmy nods with costar Maggie Smith winning Supporting Actress. However, despite Critics Choice nominations for Costume and Production Design, the cinematic rendering didn’t catch the attention of Academy voters. If it couldn’t do so, I’m doubtful its follow-up will manage to either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Good Liar Movie Review

Bill Condon’s The Good Liar gathers British acting royalty, but is not a crowning achievement compared to the career highlights of the principals involved. We have Sir Ian McKellen and Dame Helen Mirren in a twisty con artist tale based on a Nicholas Searle novel.

The film tests the limits of whether having these two leads is good enough. For a decent portion of the running time, the answer is yes. McKellen is Roy Courtnay, who successfully bilks investors out of millions along with partner Vincent (Jim Carter). His latest conquest is The Rich Widow Con and that’s Mirren’s Betty McLeish. Roy’s got patience when it comes to lifting her bank account. He attempts to ingratiate himself to her only grandson (Russell Tovey). Roy soon moves into Betty’s drab home. Past victims of his grifts are on his trail. And there’s a bit of mystery whether their partnership will move beyond platonic.

In its first half, The Good Liar is a concoction as bubbly as the wine Betty enjoys during their first date after meeting online. It is a humorous opening credits touch as they chat on the computer. Roy checks the box for non-smoker as he puffs away on a cigarette. Betty claims not to be a drinker with glass in hand. With these two master thespians bouncing dialogue off one another, it’s often a treat. On the other hand, we aren’t seeing anything unseen in the genre before with the exception of the age of the performers involved.

When flashbacks to Roy and Betty’s pasts come into play later, the pic loses its frothy charms and becomes far more serious and considerably more absurd at the same time. I am not confident that the plot mechanisms that rocket into overdrive in the latter portion hold up on close inspection. It’s telling that some of the reveals aren’t worth racking the brain about. There’s no doubt that McKellen and Mirren’s interplay is fun for awhile. When their story ventures into more weighty subjects, it doesn’t feel earned delving into them.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: The Good Liar

Pairing Sir Ian McKellen and Dame Helen Mirren together is a potential recipe for awards attention success and that’s happening next weekend with the release of The Good Liar. The thriller comes from Bill Condon, who directed McKellen to one of his two Oscar nods in Gods and Monsters. Mirren has received four Academy recognitions with a win in 2006 for The Queen.

The thriller casts McKellen as a con artist attempting to swindle Mirren’s wealthy widow. Reviews are out and while they’re decent (71% on Rotten Tomatoes), the picture is highly unlikely to be much of a box office success and awards chatter is very quiet. While the two leads are garnering praise for their work, both the lead Actor and Actress categories are already filled with more legitimate contenders.

Bottom line: the truth is that The Good Liar will come up empty-handed come nominations time. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Good Liar Box Office Prediction

A sir and a dame team up for the thriller The Good Liar next weekend with hopes to bring in a mature audience. Ian McKellen is the con artist to Helen Mirren’s rich widow. Bill Condon, who directed McKellen to an Oscar nod in 1998’s Gods and Monsters, serves behind the camera. The supporting cast includes Russell Tovey and Jim Carter.

Liar looks to bring in a Downton Abbey crowd looking for something a bit more devilish. Awards buzz would help and Liar appears unlikely to achieve it. Reviews are mixed with a current Rotten Tomatoes rating of 55%. There’s also adult competition in the form of Ford v Ferrari, which should have the pole position for the weekend.

I believe this will fail to achieve a double digits start for the royal talent involved.

The Good Liar opening weekend prediction: $6 million

For my Ford v Ferrari prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/05/ford-v-ferrari-box-office-prediction/

For my Charlie’s Angels prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/06/charlies-angels-box-office-prediction/

Downton Abbey Box Office Prediction

Mister Rogers isn’t the only PBS star getting the silver screen treatment this fall as Downton Abbey hits theaters next weekend. Based on the acclaimed drama about an aristocratic British clan in the 1920s, the film picks up after the series finale from 2016. Julian Fellowes, creator of the program which aired stateside on the public access channel, did the screenplay. Michael Engler directs with numerous cast members returning including Hugh Bonneville, Michelle Dockery, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter, Elizabeth McGovern, Matthew Goode, Penelope Wilton, and Maggie Smith.

Abbey had lots of dedicated followers to go with its multitude of Emmys and they should be curious to see the saga continue. While some could choose to wait and watch the family on the small screen like they’re accustomed to, I suspect a sizable amount will turn up in the cinema.

I was surprised to see this is set to premiere on over 3000 screens. That puts it in contention to compete with Rambo: Last Blood and Ad Astra as the weekend’s highest grossing newcomer. My estimate of just over $20 million puts it just ahead of Mr. Stallone and ahead of Mr. Pitt.

Downton Abbey opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million

For my Rambo: Last Blood prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/rambo-last-blood-box-office-prediction/

For my Ad Astra prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/09/11/ad-astra-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Downton Abbey

Fans of the British period piece series Downton Abbey, which aired stateside on PBS, will get their fix nearly four years after its conclusion with a film version. Written by its creator Julian Fellowes, Abbey picks up shortly after the events of the series finale with many cast members (Hugh Bonneville, Maggie Smith, and more) returning to their roles.

The show was no stranger to major awards attention, including Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAGs, and dozens of Emmy nods. Could that TV love translate to Oscar voters noticing the cinematic rendering?

Probably not in major categories. Abbey has a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 80% and while reviews are solid, I don’t see this getting attention in Picture or the acting derbies. On the other hand, Production Design and especially Costume Design could be doable. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…