In my previous box office prediction for Marty Supreme (opening wide on Christmas), I wrote that it is likely to play better on the coasts than everywhere in the middle. The opposite could be true for Song Sung Blue which also opens on the holiday. The musical drama from Craig Brewer stars Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson in the true life tale of Neil Diamond tribute act Lightning & Thunder. Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi are among the supporting players.
Reviews are mixed with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That said, plenty of the write-ups indicate this could be a crowdpleaser. Blue seeks to bring in an older audience during the Yuletide season. That’s likely to happen, but it may play over several weeks and not immediately while word-of-mouth builds.
I’ll project it manages just shy of $10 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend with low teens when counting Christmas.
Song Sung Blue opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Focus Features may focus part of their awards campaigning on Song Sung Blue as it readies a Christmas Day release. The musical drama comes from Hustle & Flow and Dolemite Is My Name director Craig Brewer and tells the true story of a down-on-their-luck couple who form a Neil Diamond tribute band. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson play the crooners with a supporting cast including Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi.
Blue played at the AFI Fest earlier this week and word-of-mouth indicates this could be a crowdpleaser with holiday box office potential. There aren’t a large volume of reviews out yet with 80% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps a more telling 57 on Metacritic. Best Picture is likely not in the cards.
The best and probably only chance at a nomination is Kate Hudson for lead Actress. Even some of the negative ink is singing her praises. If she makes the cut, it would come 25 years after her first and only nod in supporting for Almost Famous.
I believe it’s pretty safe to assume Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) have secured placement in the quintet. That leaves two slots for a handful or so of contenders and Hudson could have an enticing narrative for voters in a showy role. My feeling right now is she just misses, but my thoughts could shift based on precursors. Frontrunner Buckley, by the way, is contending in another Focus distributed project and they could train their sights on securing her the victory.
The film seems poised to be a factor at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy categories including Picture and Jackman, and Hudson in their lead derbies. Oscar could be a tougher sell and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Premiering her directorial debut at Cannes, Kristen Stewart’s The Chronology of Water is making some waves across the pond. Based on a memoir by Lidia Yuknavitch, the romance casts Imogen Poots as the source material’s author with a supporting cast including Thora Birch, Earl Cave, Kim Gordon, and Jim Belushi (!).
A Best Actress nominee for 2021’s Spencer, Stewart is mostly being lauded for her initial inaugural behind the camera effort. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 74. Stateside distribution is in flux, but a deal will likely be secured in France. Poots in particular is drawing a lot of attention though I wonder if she could fit it into what looks (on paper) like a crowded lead Actress field. That might depend on whether a spirited campaign is waged. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My weekly round of Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories brings a couple of updates from the past week:
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel premiered at the New York Film Festival and the mixed reaction has caused it to roll all the way out of the top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. Kate Winslet still stands a decent shot at Best Actress in a very crowded race, but her nomination seems a bit less assured to me now. The film also takes a hit in the Original Screenplay derby.
It’s looking like The Leisure Seeker with Donald Sutherland will not be released until 2018. I’ve had the actor on the lower rungs of possibility for Best Actor, but until I see confirmation of an awards qualifying end of year release date, he’s out for now.
And with that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
As the New York Film Festival draws to its close, another piece of the Oscar puzzle has revealed itself with Woody Allen’s WonderWheel. Early critical reaction is a bit mixed yet there seems to be general consensus that Kate Winslet’s lead performance is wonderful.
As has been discussed numerous times already on the blog, Best Actress looks packed with this year. There’s already acclaimed performances from Frances McDormand in ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri, Margot Robbie in I, Tonya, Emma Stone in BattleoftheSexes, Sally Hawkins in TheShapeofWater, Judi Dench in VictoriaandAbdul, and Jessica Chastain in Molly’sGame, among others. That’s in addition to Meryl Streep’s unseen but likely contending work in ThePost. Even with all that significant competition, Winslet could well be in line for her 8th nomination, having won once in 2008 for TheReader.
The cinematography for Wheel has also received praise and that’s certainly a race where a nod is doable. However, I am now thinking Woody’s latest is a long shot to nab a Best Picture nomination and Original Screenplay seems less assured now (that’s another crowded category). Juno Temple has received some decent ink today, but a Supporting Actress nomination could be a stretch. Male costars Justin Timberlake and Jim Belushi appear to be non-factors.
Bottom line: Winslet keeps her name in the mix, but other categories seem less likely now than they did yesterday.
It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:
I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.
Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.
Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
Other Possibilities:
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
12. Detroit (PR: 13)
13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)
14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)
18. Downsizing (PR: 18)
19. Get Out (PR: 16)
20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)
21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)
22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)
23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)
24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Molly’s Game
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)
13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)
13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)
14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)
11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)
11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)
12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)
13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
2. Mudbound (PR: 3)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)
10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)
12. Stronger (PR: 13)
13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
15. Wonder (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
8. Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
12. Downsizing (PR: 12)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
14. Wind River (PR: 14)
15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…
Back at it once again with my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories as we move to October. Over the past week, I would say there’s been two significant developments. First, Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying debuted at the New York Film Festival to somewhat mixed results. I’ve had it in my predicted nine films to be nominated for Best Picture and that changes for now.
The other story is the critical reaction for Blade Runner 2049, which opens tomorrow. Many of the reviews have been raves and I believe it’s increased it chances greatly at nods for Picture and its director Denis Villeneuve, who was nominated just last year for Arrival.
One further story line is the falling prospects of Battle of the Sexes, which is not performing up to expectations at the box office. Much of the reasoning for it receiving nominations was that it could turn into a hit audience pleaser. That hasn’t occurred and its chances are in doubt. GoodbyeChristopherRobin has reviews out as well and its prospects are looking dim.
Per usual, just because I rank something at #1 doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is based on chances for a nomination. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 13)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)
12. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
13. Detroit (PR: 18)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 12)
15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
16. Get Out (PR: 16)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 22)
18. Downsizing (PR: 19)
19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)
20. Lady Bird (PR: 21)
21. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)
22. The Big Sick (PR: 20)
23. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)
24. Wonderstruck (PR: 25)
25. Molly’s Game (PR: 24)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 11)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
14. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 12)
Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return is an animated feature from the upstart Summertime Entertainment opening Friday. It comes with a healthy estimated budget of $70 million. It’s based on The Wonderful Wizard of Oz by L. Frank Baum and I think we’re all familiar with the massively successful pictures his works have spawned. It features the voices of “Glee” actress Lea Michele, as well as Kelsey Grammer, Dan Aykroyd, Jim Belushi, Martin Short, and Patrick Stewart.
This begs the question: is it just me or does this thing seem to be gaining very little traction with audiences? I would offer that the marketing push for Oz has been relatively minor, even though it’s scheduled to open on a hefty 2800+ screens. Perhaps the Oz affiliation alone could propel this to a double digit opening, but I don’t even think it gets to that minor distinction. There is a shortage of kiddie related pics now that Rio 2 has made the bulk of its gross (though The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should still be doing quite well in weekend #2).
I’m predicting that family audiences will mostly ignore Dorothy’s Return and decide that when it comes to spending money on this, there’s no place like staying home.
Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
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