Tag: Jessie Buckley

79th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.

That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve

WINNER: Hamnet

Runner-Up: Pillion

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

WINNER: Pillion

Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: The Secret Agent

Best Animated Film

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2

WINNER: Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: Arco

Best Documentary

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka

Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

WINNER: Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

WINNER: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

WINNER: F1

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: F1

That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:

5 Wins

One Battle After Another

4 Wins

Sentimental Value

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2

1 Win

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners

I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. We have arrived at our third contestant in Best Actress and that’s Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue. If you missed my posts covering the first two contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Previous Acting Nominations:

2000 (Supporting Actress) – Almost Famous – lost to Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock

The Case for Kate Hudson:

Hollywood loves a good awards comeback story and this marks Hudson’s second try at Oscar glory after a quarter century and probably almost winning for Almost Famous. For her performance as the real-life Claire from a Neil Diamond tribute band in Craig Brewer’s musical drama, Hudson has picked up precursor noms at SAG Actor, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes.

The Case Against Kate Hudson:

As I mentioned in the write-up for Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, you have to go back to 2014 and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) to find the last Best Actress winner whose movie managed just one nomination. Hudson missed out at Critics Choice. Blue itself received mixed reviews. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) has swept thus far.

The Verdict:

Hudson had a much stronger chance 25 years ago as Penny Lane than she has today.

My Case Of posts will continue with the third entrant in Best Actor – Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. We have arrived at our second contestant in Best Actress and that’s Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. If you missed my post covering Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, you can find it here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

Previous Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Rose Byrne:

Despite an impressive career mixing comedies (Bridesmaids, Neighbors, Spy), superhero sagas in the X-Men franchise, and horror (the Insidious series), Mary Bronson’s anxiety inducing dramedy marks the Aussie performer’s first big screen awards vehicle. The buzz started after she took the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance at the Berlin festival. She has landed precursor noms at BAFTA, SAG Actor, Critics Choice, and took home the Golden Globe for lead in a Musical or Comedy.

The Cast Against Rose Byrne:

The recipient for lead actress in a drama at the Globes is Hamnet‘s Jessie Buckley. She also received the Critics Choice prize and is rightfully seen as the frontrunner. Byrne’s inclusion in the actress quintet marks the sole nomination for Legs. You have to go back to 2014 and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) to find the last winner whose movie only nabbed the one mention.

The Verdict:

While she’s yet to miss any precursors and it could be argued that Byrne is #2, Buckley is a formidable favorite.

My Case Of posts will continue will the second Best Actor nominee and that’s Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jessie Buckley in Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the Best Actress quintet is up for consideration and that’s Jessie Buckley in Hamnet.

Previous Acting Nominations:

2021 – Supporting Actress (The Lost Daughter) – lost to Ariana DeBose for West Side Story

The Case for Jessie Buckley:

As Agnes, the grief stricken spouse of William Shakespeare, Buckley’s weighty role has been seen as a major contender since the project was announced. The buzz intensified after its Telluride premiere in early fall. Buckley has already picked up hardware at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice and is awaiting word on potential victories at BAFTA and SAG Actor.

The Case Against Jessie Buckley:

Hamnet had a couple of unexpected misses on Oscar nomination morning including the omission of her costar Paul Mescal in Supporting Actor. Sentimental Value did slightly better than expected and its potential momentum could benefit Renate Reinsve.

The Verdict:

Of the four acting competitions, a Buckley win might be the easiest to call. Four years ago, she was a surprise nominee in supporting for The Lost Daughter. A loss for her first shot in lead would also be surprising unless there’s an upset at SAG or BAFTA.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the nominee #5 and that’s Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. If you missed my posts covering the previous four contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet

The Case for Marty Supreme:

Academy voters would be selecting one of the most widely seen nominees (it grossed more than arguable frontrunner One Battle After Another). The sports dramedy amassed a laudable eight additional nods including Safdie’s direction, his Original Screenplay with Ronald Bronstein, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, and Production Design. And of course there’s the nod for Marty himself, Timothée Chalamet, in lead Actor. It has landed BP placement in all noteworthy precursors – the Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, for its ensemble at SAG Actor, and Safdie at DGA.

The Case Against Marty Supreme:

It wasn’t as widely seen as the other arguable frontrunner Sinners. Supreme has yet to get a BP victory anywhere and it was a slight surprise that it missed other acting nominations besides Chalamet (supporting players Gwyneth Paltrow and especially Odessa A’Zion were thought to be possibilities).

The Verdict:

Marty Supreme is reminiscent of Hamnet, my previous Case Of post. It received a bounty of mentions but its best (and probably only) chance at gold is in the lead acting field. For Hamnet, it’s with Jessie Buckley in Actress and with Supreme where the third time could definitely be the charm for Chalamet.

My Case Of posts will continue with One Battle After Another…

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet

As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the fourth nominee – Hamnet from Chloé Zhao. If you missed my posts covering the previous three contenders, you can find them here:

Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein

The Case for Hamnet:

Arriving five years after Zhao’s Nomadland took home Best Picture, Director, and Actress, the filmmaker hopes to do the same with this gut-wrenching historical drama. Besides BP, it’s up in 7 other races including Director, Actress (Jessie Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costume Design, Original Score, and Production Design. The ensemble is nominated at the SAG Actor awards and it made the BP cut at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Perhaps most significantly, it beat out Sinners in a slight upset for Best Drama at the Golden Globes. 3 out of the last BP Academy winners also featured the Best Actress victor and Buckley is definitely the frontrunner.

The Case Against Hamnet:

Despite some decent arguments in the case for, One Battle After Another and Sinners are still seen as the favorites. Hamnet missed some notable competitions at the Oscars – Cinematography, Editing and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal). Even at BAFTA (where it was expected to fare even better), it wasn’t nominated in Cinematography, Editing, or Casting. The Academy could feel they just honored Zhao.

The Verdict:

Buckley is in good shape unless upcoming precursors change the narrative. The movie itself might be in third when it comes to rankings. Despite the Globe win, I’d say it’s a distant third.

My Case Of posts will continue with fifth nominee Marty Supreme…

79th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs were unveiled five days after the Academy revealed their list. The Brits equivalent of the Oscars can often indicate which nominees and pictures are (or aren’t) having momentum in the general awards space.

Overall I went 92 for 122 (75%) in the feature-length categories. Let’s walk through each race with the hopefuls in contention, how I did, and some initial thoughts.

Best Film

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No surprise here as One Battle led all nominees with 14 and Sinners right behind with 13. It will probably come down to those two pics with Battle having an edge. I would say Hamnet is a spoiler but it missed some key races.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The best film five and Lanthimos as I predicted. PTA is the favorite.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

I gotta stop leaving out Kate Hudson. She’s in over my upset selection of Andrea Riseborough (Dragonfly). Bet on Buckley.

Best Actor

Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

Aramayo gets in over Pillion‘s Harry Melling. Chalamet could continue his sweep unless DiCaprio or Hawke upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

A genuine surprise as Amy Madigan (Weapons) is left out in favor of Mulligan. This is likely between Lilleass and Taylor.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 5/6

I had Stellan’s son Alexander Skarsgård (Pillion) joining the sextet and not Mullan. It’s Stellan who probably has the best odds.

Best Original Screenplay

I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

The Secret Agent over Blue Moon. This is a Value v. Sinners derby.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion

How I Did: 4/5

Ballad over Frankenstein with OBAA out front.

Best Animated Feature

Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 1/3

I whiffed here. First of all, this race typically has four nominees. I had Arco, Demon Slayer, and KPop Demon Hunters and not Elio or Amélie (which was frankly an oversight on my part). It could win and so could Zootopia 2 which is the only flick I correctly called.

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, 2000 Meters to Andrivka

How I Did: 4/5

Some retribution after my 1/5 showing at the Oscars. I had Ocean with David Attenborough and not Cover-Up. I wouldn’t assume Neighbor takes this even though it’s the Oscar frontrunner. I actually think all five are viable.

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This matches the Academy’s quintet and, like that show, this is probably Agent or Value.

Best Casting

I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Hamnet (in a notable miss) or Sirāt are out with I Swear and Supreme in. A likely Sinners trophy.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

Frankenstein and not Hamnet in another interesting omission. I’ll note this is the only nom for Train Dreams as this should come down to Battle or Sinners.

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/5

Unlike Oscar, Wicked managed to get some BAFTA attention (albeit limited). I had Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and not Supreme (which had a solid day). Frankenstein may take this.

Best Editing

F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

Another Battle/Sinners race as F1 and Dynamite show up over Bugonia and (you guessed it) Hamnet.

Best Make Up and Hair

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 3/5

A strange quintet as Hamnet gets an unexpected mention as does Supreme and not One Battle or (more surprisingly) The Smashing Machine. This should go to Frankenstein.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Sinners is the frontrunner.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 3/5

I had Bugonia and Wicked instead of Marty and Battle. Another probable win for Frankenstein.

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

How I Did: 3/5

Frankenstein/Warfare over Avatar: Fire and Ash/Wicked. Think Sinners with F1 spoiler possibility.

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus

How I Did: 4/5

Dragon, not Superman as Avatar is ahead.

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die, My Love, Hamnet, H is for Hawk, I Swear, Mr. Burton, Pillion, Steve

How I Did: 7/10

I went with Ballad of a Small Player, The Choral, and Warfare over Jones, Burton, and Steve. One would think Hamnet takes this though I Swear is viable as an upset pick.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman

How I Did: 3/5

Ceremony/Want over Oceans with David Attenborough and Urchin. Pillion should win.

Best Children’s + Family Film

Arco, Boong, Lilo + Stitch, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 2/4

Grow and How to Train Your Dragon miss and not Boong and Lilo with Zootopia out front.

That works out to the following movies getting these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominatons

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

5 Nominations

Bugonia, I Swear

3 Nominations

The Ballad of Wallis Island, F1, Pillion

2 Nominations

The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Cover-Up, Blue Moon, Boong, The Ceremony, Die, My Love, Elio, H is for Hawk, A House of Dynamite, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Lilo & Stitch, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Burton, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirāt, Song Sung Blue, Steve, Train Dreams, The Voice of Hind Rajab, A Want in Her, Warfare, Wasteman

The BAFTAs air February 22nd and you can expect a recap on the blog when that happens.

79th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

Nominations for the 79th BAFTAs (the British equivalent of the Oscars) are out tomorrow prior to the February 22nd ceremony hosted by Alan Cumming. Unlike previous years, BAFTA nods are hitting after the Academy’s picks which were out last week.

For a blogger who concentrates primarily on the Oscar derby, it makes this announcement a tad anticlimactic since I’m not weighing them against what I anticipate will occur on Oscar nom morning. Nevertheless I’m giving you my forecast for all feature-length races with an alternate named in each. For the directing and acting competitions, BAFTA goes with six nominees. For Outstanding British Film, it is ten. There are four in Animated Film and Children’s & Family Film. In all others (including Best Film), we’re talking five. Got all that? Good. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Andrea Riseborough, Dragonfly

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Harry Melling, Pillion

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Alternate – Brenda Blethyn, Dragonfly

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

I Swear

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – It Was Just an Accident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Pillion

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Animated Film

Arco

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

KPop Demon Hunters

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Elio

Best Documentary

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Ocean with David Attenborough

The Perfect Neighbor

2000 Meters to Andrivka

Alternate – Becoming Led Zeppelin

Best Film Not in the English Language

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirāt

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Casting

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Sirāt

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Alternate – Frankenstein

Best Costume Design

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Editing

Bugonia

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – F1

Best Make Up & Hair

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Bugonia

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Marty Supreme

Best Production Design

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Best Special Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Frankenstein

The Lost Bus

Superman

Alternate – Wicked: For Good

Outstanding British Film

28 Years Later

Ballad of a Small Player

The Ballad of Wallis Island

The Choral

Die, My Love

Hamnet

H is for Hawk

I Swear

Pillion

Warfare

Alternate – Steve

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

My Father’s Shadow

Ocean with David Attenborough

Pillion

Urchin

Wasteman

Alternate – The Ceremony

Best Children’s & Family Film

Arco

Grow

How to Train Your Dragon

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

That works out to these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Hamnet, Sinners

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Pillion

4 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

2 Nominations

Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, I Swear, Ocean with David Attenborough, Sirāt, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Ballad of a Small Player, The Ballad of Wallis Island, The Choral, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Dragonfly, Grow, H is for Hawk, How to Train Your Dragon, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, 28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Urchin, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Warfare, Wasteman, Weapons

98th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

After months of forecasting and scores of individual posts on the movies vying for the attention of Oscar voters, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards were unveiled this morning. The ceremony airs March 15th with Conan O’Brien returning to host.

There is an undeniable headline in that Sinners shattered the record for most noms ever with 16. The previous holders of that title were a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land at 14 apiece. Even without a new race (Casting), Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale still would have broken the record. It is a remarkable achievement that could change the narrative in Best Picture (and others).

A secondary headline? The complete shutout of Wicked: For Good. Its predecessor from just a year ago landed 10 nominations. No one had it goose egging. I had it marked for four mentions and at one time weeks ago, I think I had it landing 10.

Overall I went 87 out of 110 in my feature-length projections (or 79%). Documentary Feature, as it has before, was the bane of my prognosticating existence while Visual Effects also tripped me up.

Some quick fun facts: Stellan Skarsgård is (somehow) the first Supporting Actor contender from a foreign film. The BP nod for One Battle After Another gives Leonardo DiCaprio his 12th BP hopeful. That ties with a record with his This Boy’s Life and Killers of the Flower Moon costar Robert De Niro.

In a second, we’ll walk through each race with some initial thoughts and how I did. First – a reminder that my Case Of posts will be arriving on the blog in short order. As readers may recall, I do individual posts on each Best Picture contender and the 25 hopefuls in Director and the four acting derbies. With each write-up, I give the case for their victory and against it along with a verdict. Those posts will start with the 10 BP nominees and then alternate alphabetically between the directing and acting personnel.

Best Picture

Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 9/10

F1, my 2nd runner-up, makes the cut over It Was Just an Accident. My Case Of posts will delve deeper, but I do believe Sinners is now a strong possibility to win in a showdown with fellow Warner Bros release One Battle After Another.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-up Trier is in over Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). Like BP, this should be between PTA (Battle) and Coogler (Sinners). The former probably has an edge even if Sinners manages the BP victory.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 4/5

Hudson lands her second nomination 25 years after her supporting nod for Almost Famous. I went with Chase Infiniti for Battle. Buckley is the frontrunner.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The expected quintet materializes with Chalamet hoping the third time is the charm.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 4/5

Taylor might be the favorite. However, if Sinners takes BP, I wouldn’t sleep on Mosaku. And I’m saying that having not predicted her though she was my runner-up. I had Marty Supreme‘s Odessa A’Zion in her place. There’s Madigan to consider as well as the Sentimental actresses should vote split.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 4/5

Lindo is in over Paul Mescal as Hamnet had a couple high profile omissions. Penn may be the only one without a convincing win narrative and this could come down to the wire.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Moon, which I didn’t list as either of my runner-ups, is in over The Secret Agent. Value is viable though Sinners is the safer bet.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The five Adapted works from BP are in. A pretty easy call for Battle.

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 4/5

Second runner-up Rajab instead of No Other Choice, which was blanked. This is a fascinating category as Agent vs. Value could be the showdown.

Best Animated Feature

Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This has been the anticipated lineup for several weeks with KPop in the pole position.

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor

How I Did: 1/5 (ugh)

The Doc race strikes again and hurts my numbers. I only had Neighbor (the frontrunner… I guess) correctly named as I went with Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and 2000 Meters to Andrivka.

Best Casting

Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Hamnet (my runner-up) instead of Frankenstein. This should also come down to Battle v. Sinners and I’m leaning toward the latter.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

Marty Supreme (my runner-up) instead of Hamnet (another notable miss). A broken record as this is also between Battle and Sinners.

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

A genuine shocker with Avatar in. Its two predecessors didn’t even make this category. I had Wicked: For Good instead (get used to hearing that). Frankenstein is out front, but a Sinners over performance could happen.

Best Film Editing

F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Value instead of Hamnet. Once again, Battle or Sinners.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister

How I Did: 4/5

2nd runner-up Stepsister is in contention over Wicked. Frankenstein shouldn’t have any trouble here.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Bugonia, which I didn’t list in the runners-up, over Sirāt. This is likely to be a Sinners prize.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “I Lied to You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

How I Did: 4/5

The Verdi! is very much an unexpected inclusion. I had “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light. I’ll also note neither shortlisted Wicked track made it. Unless the Academy decides to finally honor Diane Warren in a competitive race or a Sinners sweep happens, KPop should be golden.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-Up Battle over (you got it) Wicked. Another potential W for Frankenstein.

Best Sound

F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

How I Did: 4/5

Runner-up Frankenstein instead of Avatar. This could be between F1 and Sinners with Sirāt as an upset possibility.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners

How I Did: 2/5 (ugh)

Like Documentary, the VE voters can be unpredictable and they went with Jurassic (first nod in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost World), Bus, and Sinners (getting that historic 16th mention) over Frankenstein, Superman, and (say it with me!) Wicked. The winner isn’t hard to project as Avatar looks to go 3 for 3.

Besides the aforementioned Wicked and No Other Choice, two other notable pics that you won’t find among the nominees are Jay Kelly and The Testament of Ann Lee.

Here is how the nominations did shake out:

16 Nominations (!)

Sinners

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Hamnet

4 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, KPop Demon Hunters, Sirāt

1 Nomination

The Alabama Solution, Arco, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, The Ugly Stepsister, Viva Verdi!, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Weapons, Zootopia 2

Keep an eye out for the Case Of posts as we march toward final predictions in March!

98th Academy Awards: FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

After months of prognosticating and scores of individual prediction posts pontificating on the Oscar chances of various motion pictures, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be unveiled early Thursday morning.

The window for Academy members to make their picks just ended Friday and it could all be about momentum. Movies like The Secret Agent and Frankenstein seem to have it while it’s possible that It Was Just an Accident and especially mega-sequels Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash have lost it.

My ranked predictions are done. Below you will find my FINAL picks for all feature-length categories along with runner-up and second runner-up selections.

I will note that, last year, I went 9 for 10 in my Best Picture forecast and 4 for 5 in Director. Somewhat shockingly, I managed to go 20 for 20 in the acting derbies and 89 for 105 overall. Here’s how I envision Thursday morning shaking out and you can count on a recap post with how I performed that evening. Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Runner-Up: Sirāt

Second Runner-Up: F1

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Second Runner-Up: Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Runner-Up: Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Second Runner-Up: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Runner-Up: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Second Runner-Up: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Second Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Second Runner-Up: Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Runner-Up: Sorry, Baby

Second Runner-Up: Weapons

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

Runner-Up: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Second Runner-Up: No Other Choice

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirāt

Runner-Up: Left-Handed Girl

Second Runner-Up: The Voice of Hind Rajab

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

Runner-Up: In Your Dreams

Second Runner-Up: Endless Cookie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Apocalypse in the Tropics

Cover-Up

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow

The Perfect Neighbor

2000 Meters to Andrivka

Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution

Second Runner-Up: Come See Me in the Good Light

BEST CASTING

Frankenstein

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Second Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Runner-Up: Marty Supreme

Second Runner-Up: F1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Runner-Up: Hedda

Second Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

BEST FILM EDITING

F1

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Runner-Up: Frankenstein

Second Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Frankenstein

Kokuho

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked: For Good

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Second Runner-Up: The Ugly Stepsister

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirāt

Runner-Up: Marty Supreme

Second Runner-Up: F1

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Runner-Up: “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

Second Runner-Up: “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Second Runner-Up: Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST SOUND

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirāt

Runner-Up: Frankenstein

Second Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Frankenstein

Superman

Wicked: For Good

Runner-Up: Sinners

Second Runner-Up: The Lost Bus

And that means I’m predicting that these movies will end up with these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Frankenstein, Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

5 Nominations

The Secret Agent

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Sirāt

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2