Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is my ninth Case Of post covering the Best Picture nominees for the 2021 Academy Awards. If you missed the previous entries, you can access them here:
And it’s quite a case to be made. Last week, the Netflix period drama ruled Oscar nominations morning with an even better than expected 12 nods. It even garnered unexpected mentions in Sound and for Jesse Plemons in Supporting Actor (alongside his costars Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, and Kodi Smit-McPhee). In doing so, Dog landed placements in all of the down the line races where a BP win is key: directing, performances, adapted screenplay, editing, and so forth. At the Golden Globes (where many were predicting a Belfast victory), it took Best Drama. It’s also been the beneficiary of numerous critics groups awards for Best Pic.
The Case Against The Power of the Dog:
Being the frontrunner doesn’t always pan out and we’ve seen it in three of the past five Oscars. Just ask La La Land (which lost to Moonlight in 2016), Roma (which fell to Green Book in 2018), and 1917 (which came up short to Parasite in 2019). Getting the most nominations also doesn’t mean you’re taking the big prize. Just ask Mank from last year. Or Joker two years ago. Or The Favourite or Roma from 2018.
The Verdict:
While the case against is somewhat persuasive, there’s no denying that Dog is unquestionably the favorite to win. Yet there’s compelling evidence that an upset is certainly feasible.
My Case Of posts will continue with West Side Story…
And at last… they’re out! After months of speculating on the blog (starting all the way back with my initial predictions in August), the Oscar nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were unveiled early this morning.
As always, there’s shocking omissions and surprising additions. There’s races that went as planned. And (for me at least) there’s always that one tricky category where I end up going 2/5. This year it was Documentary Feature which is notoriously tough to figure out. On the flip side, I projected 4 out of the 20 feature film competitions with 5/5 accuracy. All in all – I went 82 for 105 on the picks.
Some initial thoughts before I break it down race by race. The Power of the Dog was easily the winner of the morning with 12 nods (even more than anticipated). It led all nominees with Dune second (10).
Other movies that either met or exceeded expectations: Drive My Car, King Richard, and Nightmare Alley (which was the only somewhat surprising BP addition). For others, it was more of a mixed bag. Belfast garnered 7 mentions but came up short in key tech indicators like Cinematography and Editing. The same can be said for Licorice Pizza. Seven was also the number for West Side Story, but it missed screenplay. Being the Ricardos got 3 acting nods but no Picture or screenplay. And even Dune, with the 10 nods, somehow missed a director nomination for Denis Villeneuve.
Then there’s House of Gucci, which showed up only in Makeup and Hairstyling. No Jared Leto (I predicted he’d be left off), but no Lady Gaga in Actress was perhaps the shocker of the day.
Let’s get into it and I’ll offer my initial take on what/who could win (my final predictions will come shortly before the March 27th show).
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Commentary: My one miss was Alley coming in over Being the Ricardos. Make no mistake. With its 12 mentions, The Power of the Dog is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, the Twitterverse will offer alternate theories. Could Drive My Car‘s impressive haul give us our second foreign BP winner in three years? Could Belfast or West Side Story spoil? I doubt it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Hamaguchi getting in wasn’t unforeseen. If so, I figured he’d do so over Anderson, Branagh, or Spielberg and certainly not Villeneuve. That’s what happened. Campion made history today by becoming the first female nominee to get a second nomination. All signs point to her becoming the third (after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao) to win.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: We now arrive at the biggest head scratcher of the major categories. Gaga’s aforementioned omission is truly unexpected (Cruz takes her slot). The precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG) have been all over the map and there’s no obvious favorite. I would say Cruz doesn’t stand much of a chance, but the other four do (it’s a lot like last year’s Actress derby). This is also the first time since 2005 where no Actress hopeful has their film in contention for Best Picture. Kidman’s Globe win could help and we’ll see what SAG does, but this is wide open.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: That’s more like it! Smith (especially after Richard‘s good morning) is out ahead though I could see Cumberbatch definitely threatening after Dog‘s very good morning. Fun tidbit: not since 1980 has the Best Actor race consisted entirely of previous nominees until today.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: This was the first race announced today and the jaws of prognosticators dropped immediately. Buckley and (especially) Dench were not anticipated by most. I didn’t even have either as my runner-up or second alternate. They displace Ruth Negga (Passing) and Dench’s costar Caitriona Balfe. While the lineup is different than we thought, the frontrunner (DeBose) remains the same with Dunst (getting her first nod) as a possible upset pick.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Simmons in over Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Mr. Cooper has two movies contending for BP but no singling out to show for it. Smit-McPhee may be out in front but a Kotsur victory is feasible.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Worst Person is the surprise. I didn’t predict Richard though its inclusion was expected. They’re in over Ricardos and Parallel Mothers (which was admittedly a bit of an upset pick from me). This should be between Belfast and Pizza and it may represent the best opportunity for either to grab a statue.
Tidbit: since 2001, there was at least one screenplay contender where it served as its only nomination. Until today.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: Let’s not overcomplicate it when we don’t need to. Power is far and away the leader in this pack.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: This went as planned. There are three Disney products in the group, but the other two (Flee, Mitchells) are potential roadblocks to Encanto winning. Yet betting against Disney usually isn’t wise in this one and Encanto will probably take it.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: I’m gonna go ahead and say Lunana is the first Oscar contender with Yak in its title without checking (correct me if wrong). It surprisingly gets in (along with far less surprising The Hand of God) over A Hero and Playground. This one’s simple: anything other than Car would be a massive upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s that blasted 2 for 5 race! Ascension, Attica, and Fire are up over my selections of Faye Dayi, Procession, and The Rescue (its omission is stunning considering it was a contender to win).
Flee made history by becoming the first film to be nominated for Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and here. This race probably marks its best chance to win, but I wouldn’t sleep on Summer of Soul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Alley over Belfast. Get used to hearing this with the tech categories – Dune might be out in front. Dog could threaten.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano‘s sole nod comes here. I had House of Gucci instead. Dune can’t win all the techs and Cruella could take this.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Richard and Boom! over Belfast and Licorice Pizza. The Belfast omission is particularly notable as BP victors nearly always are nominated here. This could be more Dune gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with Suicide Squad over Coming 2 America. Despite its bad performance this morning, Gucci could win this. Or it might just go to Dune.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with The French Dispatch (which goose egged) over Mothers. As for the winner (get ready for it) – expect Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Maybe the surprise here shouldn’t be with “Somehow You Do” over “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. After all, this marks Diane Warren’s 13th nomination and sixth in the last seven years. She’s never won and won’t this time.
“Be Alive” from Beyonce or “Oruguitas” could get it, but “No Time to Die” from Billie Eilish could be the third Bond theme in a row to be celebrated.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Another category where I said French Dispatch and missed. Power gets in instead. While Dune is strong, I wouldn’t be startled to see this as the lone victory for Nightmare Alley.
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: You should hear Dune‘s name called.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Free Guy and Spidey over The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong. As for the winner: See Best Sound.
Here’s the overall nominations break down:
12 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
10 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
6 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Encanto, Flee, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
1 Nomination
Ascension, Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Four Good Days, Free Guy, The Hand of God, House of Gucci, Luca, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Starting very shortly, you can peruse my Case Of posts in which I write individualized posts for all the contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting races!
This is it! After months of speculation that began all the way back in a time known as August 2021, the guesswork grinds to a halt. It’s time for my FINAL Oscar predictions for the 94th Academy Awards. Nominations are out Tuesday (February 8th) with the big show airing March 27th.
I’ve penned thousands of words discussing the various feature film categories that will be revealed. The speculation ends today. For each race, I will give you my picks along with a runner-up and a second alternate. On Tuesday, I’ll have reaction up with my thoughts and, of course, how I did with the prognostications. I’m also giving you how I fared in the previous two years with each category.
So… pencils down. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
2019 Performance: 9/9
2020 Performance: 7/9
***There are 10 fixed nominees now***
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Director
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Second Alternate: Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Best Actor
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Best Supporting Actress
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Ann Dowd, Mass
Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: Passing
Best Animated Feature
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Runner-Up: Belle
Second Alternate: Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 2/5
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
A Hero
Playground
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: The Hand of God
Second Alternate: Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Faya Dayi
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up: The First Wave
Second Alternate: Ascension
Best Cinematography
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Costume Design
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Cyrano
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Film Editing
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Coming 2 America
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Original Score
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Spencer
Best Original Song
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Here I Am” from Respect
Second Alternate: “Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Belfast
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
2020 Performance: 5/5
***Sound races were split into Editing and Mixing prior to 2020
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Visual Effects
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Second Alternate: Ghostbusters: Afterlife
And this means my FINAL tally of total nominations for these films are as follows:
11 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Encanto, Flee, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley
1 Nomination
Faya Dayi, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Playground, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
Come Tuesday – visit the blog for reaction to the nominations!
For the second year in a row, the British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) showed its unpredictable nature with some shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. The last major precursor before Oscar nominations are unveiled Tuesday, I went 63 of 99 when it comes to races with a correlation to the Academy’s competitions. Truth be told – it coulda been worse considering the surprises we witnessed today.
Let’s break them down one by one with some commentary, shall we?
Film
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: The BAFTAs delivered a great haul for Pizza. It and Don’t Look Up got in over my picks of The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story (which both underwhelmed). Gut reaction says Power is in the lead.
Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Audrey Diwan (Happening), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Aleem Khan (After Love)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Wow – no Kenneth Branagh for Belfast or Denis Villeneuve for Dune! They miss with Anderson and Diwan taking the spots. Like with Film, Campion could be out in front.
Leading Actress
Nominees: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Joanna Scanlan (After Love), Tessa Thompson (Passing)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Surprises galore here! No Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos or Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. I predicted both along with Claire Rushbrook for Ali & Ava. In their slots are Haim (continuing the Licorice love), Jones, and Thompson. I would also note no Kristen Stewart in Spencer after her SAG snub.
Now here’s an interesting stat – since 2013, the BAFTA Leading Actress recipient has matched the Oscar winner. So… are Kidman and Colman in trouble? Could Gaga be on her way to a gold statue? Does this show Haim’s potential strength at getting an Academy mention? Questions abound, but I know one thing – this year’s Actress race is as intriguing as last year’s.
Leading Actor
Nominees: Adeel Akhtar (Ali & Ava), Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Stephen Graham (Boiling Point), Will Smith (King Richard)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Smith’s inclusion here (which I didn’t project) just might solidify him as the Oscar frontrunner (with Cumberbatch pretty close behind). Academy hopefuls Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) and Denzel Washington (Macbeth) were left out as was Daniel Craig in his swan song as Bond in No Time to Die. In their place – Smith, Ali (following up on his Globe nominated turn), and DiCaprio.
Side note – somehow, Denzel has never been nominated for a BAFTA.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Dowd finally shows up! I must say – no huge shockers here as she and Ellis made it over Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and Kathryn Hunter (Macbeth). We’ll see if DeBose’s potential sweep continues here.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mike Faist (West Side Story), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: There was a double dose of Dog love for Plemons (who I didn’t predict) and Smit-McPhee (who I did and he could certainly win). I also went with Faist’s costar David Alvarez instead in a last minute switch that I now regret. And young Norman is responsible for the only nod for C’Mon C’Mon. I also went with Benicio del Toro for The French Dispatch and Jamie Dornan in Belfast. At this point, an Oscar nod for Dornan seems like a reach. Also worth noting is that, despite Pizza over performing, no Bradley Cooper.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Here’s a list that may absolutely match the Oscar one. I said After Love over Richard (which had a solid day). Like with the Academy, this might be a Belfast v. Pizza showdown and considering how well the latter did, I might lean that way.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with West Side Story over Dune. This is Power‘s to lose.
Animated Film
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines
How I Did: 3/4
Commentary: Rather predictable list though I said Ron’s Gone Wrong instead of Luca.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: Drive My Car, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Petite Maman, The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: No Flee here or Titane with God and Mothers in. Drive My Car is the favorite.
Documentary
Nominees: Becoming Cousteau, Cow, Flee, The Rescue, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Summer of Soul did well when factoring in the surprise Editing nod. It made it along with Cousteau over my picks of The Sparks Brothers and The Velvet Underground.
Cinematography
Nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Well – Macbeth got something (!) Only miss here was going with Belfast instead of Alley.
Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s always a pesky 2/5 race where I just whiff. I got Cyrano and Dune right but the others popped up over House of Gucci, Last Night in Soho, and West Side Story. I didn’t predict it, but Cruella could be the main competition for Dune.
Editing
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Soul‘s aforementioned placement is unexpected – could it possibly follow suit with the Academy? Also didn’t project Pizza. They are in over Last Night in Soho and (you guessed it) West Side Story.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano over The Electrical Life of Louis Wain. Honestly, other than Cyrano, I think any of the hopefuls could take this.
Original Score
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, Dune, The French Dispatch, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Ricardos and Don’t Look Up in; The Green Knight and Spencer out. Probably a showdown of Dune v. Dog.
Production Design
Nominees: Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Here’s a rare category where I incorrectly had West Side missing. It’s in, along with Cyrano (which had a decent haul with tech races) over Belfast and Macbeth.
Sound
Nominees: Dune, Last Night in Soho, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place Part II, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Place over Belfast. Expect Dune to reign supreme.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Should be another victory for Dune as Free Guy and Ghostbusters made it over my selections of The King’s Man and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
And there’s your recap. As a reminder, my FINAL Oscar predictions (which I’m currently beating myself up over) will be posted tomorrow! Stay tuned…
The DGA and PGA nominations are out as of yesterday and it’s caused some reflection as I pen my penultimate predictions for the 2021 Oscars. With Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick… Boom! nabbing the final two BP spots at PGA (the other 8 were pretty obvious), I feel it necessary to include at least one of them. On the other hand, I’m reluctant to include both as PGA and the Academy’s BP selection rarely match. I’m leaning toward Boom! and it vaults back into the top ten. Yet I’m continuing to keep The Tragedy of Macbeth in the mix despite its lack of recent precursor love.
The DGA quintet and the Best Director nominees haven’t mirrored each other since 2009. So it’s a risk to go with DGA’s five. However, as of this moment, I’m going with it.
Another big change is in Best Actor as I’m including Javier Bardem in Ricardos for the first time (over Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). There’s also a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) in for his inaugural appearance. That knocks out Jared Leto for Gucci.
The last big piece of the precursor puzzle arrives Thursday with BAFTA nods. On Friday (02/04), I will make my FINAL Oscar calls before nomination morning on Tuesday, February 8th.
Here’s how I have things standing as of now:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (+1)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pig
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
My Sunny Maad
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Playground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 6) (E)
7. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Attica (PR: 7) (-1)
9. President (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-4)
7. King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Encanto (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spencer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
This all equates to the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Ray and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Tender Bar, The Worst Person in the World
In two weeks time, House of Gucci has gone from unranked in my top 15 Best Picture possibilities to making the cut in 10th. Whether it stays there – who knows? As I see it, the top 8 look relatively safe and then it could be a free for all for the last two spots. Gucci‘s rise means Tick, Tick… Boom! drops out.
I’ve also made way for The Lone Screenplay nominee which has occurred every year since 2001. C’Mon C’Mon is now included in Original Screenplay and that knocks out King Richard. I wrote about The Lone Screenplay history of the 21st century here:
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have a penultimate update next week before unveiling my final predictions shortly before the February 8th announcement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. King Richard (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (E)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (E)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (+1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. Pig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+1)
10. My Sunny Maad (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Procession (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Attica (PR: 6) (-1)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Encanto (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cruella
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, No Time to Die
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Nightmare Alley, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
My first Oscar predictions following the Golden Globes bestowing their winners and the SAG Award nods comes with not a whole lot of changes in who and what I’m actually predicting in the major categories.
However, there is a significant alteration in placement for Best Actress as Kristen Stewart’s shocking omission in Spencer from the SAG five drops her from 1st (where she’s been perched for months) to 4th. Rising to #1 is Globes victor Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. This competition is beginning to resemble the unpredictable Actress lineup from 2020 and it should be fun to witness.
In Best Picture, I’m (perhaps stubbornly) sticking to the same ten. Yet there’s no doubt that Ricardos and House of Gucci could be on the rise and either or both could crack the lineup soon.
The only significant change is in Supporting Actor where I’m finally putting Jared Leto for Gucci in the mix. He’s in over Jamie Dornan (Belfast).
I’m also adding a new feature which shows how many eventual nominees from 2020 were correctly picked at this same juncture. I’ll keep that up until I make my final picks shortly before the February 8th announcement. This will be listed as 2020 Count.
You can read all the movement below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 14) (+3)
12. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Drive My Car (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: No Way Home
2020 Count: 7 of 8 eventual nominees
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 2 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Judi Dench, Belfast
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-2)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mass (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. My Sunny Maad (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ascension (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 6) (E)
7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)
8. President (PR: 8) (E)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Julia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
2020 Count: 1 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Spencer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 4 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cruella (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
2020 Count: 3 of 5 eventual nominees
And that equates to these movies hitting these numbers for their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard
4 Nominations
House of Gucci, Licorice Pizza, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, Spencer
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Worst Person in the World
The 28th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards airs February 27th and the nominations will be unveiled this Wednesday (01/12). It’s often a more reliable precursor to the acting nominations for the Oscars. Therefore it’s time to make my picks on who and what will grab the nods later this week.
As a reminder, the big prize here is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. That often favors films with a larger cast though a potent mix with four or more actors can make the cut. Similar to Golden Globe estimates and my forthcoming final Oscar picks, I’ll give you my five contenders along with a runner-up and second alternate with a bit of commentary.
Here we go!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza
Second Alternate: King Richard
Commentary – The three Best Picture frontrunners for the Academy (Belfast, Power, West Side) all seem like pretty safe bets here. If anything is vulnerable, it might be the quartet from Power considering it has a smaller troupe of performers. There’s also some chatter that West Side could be vulnerable because it sent out late screeners for voters, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. For the other two spots, I’m favoring Don’t Look Up‘s large and sprawling cast should make it in. I’ll go with the CODA clan as well though I could easily see Licorice Pizza, King Richard or The Harder They Fall making the cut.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – The last four years has seen a 4/5 match with SAG and Oscar when it comes to leading ladies. My current Academy lineup is the same as here (though that’s certainly subject to change). Quite honestly, I tried to make room for Cruz but couldn’t land on who to take out. The most vulnerable could be Chastain, Gaga, or Kidman. I also wouldn’t completely discount Jennifer Hudson for Respect and would have her ranked above Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) for SAG.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in Leading Role
Predicted Nominees:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig
Commentary – Just as I am with the Oscars – feeling confident about Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington. It’s that fifth slot that’s tricky. I’ll give Dinklage the ever so slight nod over Leo (who’s currently my fifth with the Academy). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Cage sneak in.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Runner-Up: Marlee Matlin, CODA
Second Alternate: Ann Dowd, Mass
Commentary – I’m banking on the Guild not passing up a chance to put the legendary Moreno in with her costar DeBose. Speaking of Passing, you’ll notice Ruth Negga (my fifth Oscar player at the moment) isn’t here but she could certainly surface.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Predicted Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Commentary – Bit of a guessing game as Supporting Actor is a head scratcher for 2021 pics. Going with both Belfast boys and the love continuing for West Side Story with Faist. As for the winner, that could be between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee (I also wouldn’t discount his costar Jesse Plemons getting in). If Leto misses here (and with the Globes omission), his Oscar chances probably disappear.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Black Widow
Dune
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Runner-Up: The Matrix Resurrections
Second Alternate: The Harder They Fall
This means I’m projecting 4 nominations apiece for Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. I’ll have a recap up Wednesday with my reaction and how well (or not) I did!
P.S. – Golden Globe reactions coming up this evening…
My first 2022 predictions for the 2021 Oscar season comes on the eve of the Golden Globes and four days before SAG announces their nominees. By my next update, we will have those useful bits of information to consider.
If you missed my predictions for the Globe winners, you can find them here:
I’ll have my forecast for the SAG nominees up on the blog tomorrow so stay tuned! In the meantime, there are numerous changes to point out:
I keep going back and forth on whether momentum for Japan’s Drive My Car is still revving up or perhaps stalling. I’ve taken it out of my ten predicted BP contenders and put The Tragedy of Macbeth back in.
While I continue to struggle with all 5 Best Actress hopefuls representing non BP nominees, I’m back to that lineup. That means Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) returns with Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) falling out.
For many weeks, I’ve held to same Best Actor five. That changes today with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) joining the quintet and Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) dropping.
In Supporting Actor, both Belfast boys are in so Jamie Dornan is back in the mix. That takes out Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog).
Drive My Car is also out for Adapted Screenplay with Dune in.
The Beyonce vs. Billie battle in Original Song switches places. Beyonce’s track “Be Alive” from King Richard has been my #1 for months, but I’ve now vaulted Billie’s “No Time to Die” to top position.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for a Globes recap and SAG prognostications.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Nightmare Alley (PR: 13) (E)
14. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 6) (E)
7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)
8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Sunny Maad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lamb
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Rescue (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ascension (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. President (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Faya Dayi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. In the Same Breath (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Last Night in Soho
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Encanto (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Green Knight
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spencer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cruella (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Free Guy (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. No Time to Die (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
And that boils down to these pictures garnering these numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Ascension, Drive My Car, Free Guy, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
As long as you feed The Beast and give it enough of what it wants, that might prevent it from harming others. That’s the prevailing message of Scott Cooper’s Antlers and it’s not a particularly fresh one as the foul stenches and stretches of the storyline play out. It attempts to balance body horror and creature feature elements with an abuse allegory and a tale of moral and environmental decay. With an assist from Guillermo del Toro on the production side, the pic ultimately bites off more than it can chew. This is also an issue for the title character terrorizer who leaves half devoured carcasses lying around.
The setting is the desolate Oregon town of Cispus Falls where lines for store front recovery centers appear to outnumber any other facade. In the opening, Frank Weaver (Scott Haze) has taken his youngest son Aiden (Sawyer Jones) his workplace of an abandoned mine shaft turned meth lab. Frank and his buddy leave the youngster waiting in the truck while they break up their bad deeds below. An attack by an unseen animal force begins the carnage that leaves longstanding marks on the Weaver family.
Flash forwarding above ground and weeks later, Aiden’s older brother Lucas (Jeremy T. Thomas) is an outcast who rushes to collect roadkill as his after school activity. Bringing the critters home with him, what lies behind a locked door shows the current condition of dad and Aiden. It’s not for the faint of heart or those who just feasted.
Lucas’s behavior catches the attention of his teacher Julia (Keri Russell). She’s recently moved back from California after two decades and in with her brother Paul (Jesse Plemons), who’s the Sheriff around these parts. The two share a caring but sometimes strained bond in their family home. Their mother passed long ago and their father more recently. Brief flashbacks and more expository dialogue reveal an abusive past. Julia recognizes signs of mistreatment in her pupil while not imagining the extent of it.
I did appreciate much about the atmospheric touches and gorgeous cinematography in Antlers – even if it’s focused on some grisly occurrences. The Weavers fall prey to an ancient Native American evil spirit known as a Wendigo which causes the cursed subjects to become cannibalistic and ravenous. This is mostly explained by the town’s ex-sheriff played by Graham Greene and it’s not a tale that the picture seems preoccupied in mining for material. There is a tone of seriousness that prevents this from ever becoming campy. Perhaps a little of that could have helped.
There’s no faulting the performances as Russell and Plemons commit and Thomas is believable as the malnourished child who must become an adult before he should. The problem lies with committing to too many ideas and giving the short shrift to all of them. There are worse flaws to be had and Antlers never feels like a regurgitation of previous works (though its themes are familiar). Devotees of highbrow horror might be satiated, but I found myself hungering for Cooper, del Toro, and company to pick a plot line and explore it a little more.
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