Tag: Jeremy Strong

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 4th Edition

In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.

My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)

18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)

20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)

21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)

22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)

24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)

13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Nia Long, Michael

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Brendan Fraser, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

98th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21st Edition

A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.

Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).

Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.

You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).

This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.

With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Wicked: For Good

5. Sinners

6. The Rivals of Amziah King

7. Hamnet

8. Jay Kelly

9. The Life of Chuck

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another

12. Frankenstein

13. Bugonia

14. Deliver Me from Nowhere

15. The Smashing Machine

16. No Other Choice

17. The Ballad of a Small Player

18. Michael

19. Die, My Love

20. Highest 2 Lowest

21. Kiss of the Spider Woman

22. F1

23. Is This Thing On?

24. Ann Lee

25. Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere

14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead

15. Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

12. Emily Watson, Hamnet

13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

14. Nia Long, Michael

15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.

Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Colman Domingo, Michael

Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

Joe Alwyn, Hamnet

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love

Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: A Real Pain

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

All signs point to The Substance.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

This should be Dune‘s other victory.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: Better Man

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain

Oscars: The Case of Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Jeremy Strong:

As Donald Trump’s attorney and fixer Roy Cohn, Strong flexed his acting muscle and it resulted in nominations at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards.

The Cast Against Jeremy Strong:

He missed the cut at Critics Choice. Most importantly, Strong’s Succession costar Kieran Culkin has swept the season with his performance in A Real Pain.

The Verdict:

There will be almost certainly be a Succession actor winning Supporting Actor on Sunday night. It almost certainly will not be Strong.

My Case Of posts will conclude with the final hopeful in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown…

Oscars: The Case of Yura Borisov in Anora
Oscars: The Case of Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Oscars: The Case of Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

31st SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.

That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.

At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.

Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: Anora

Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role

Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.

PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked

This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE FALL GUY

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

78th BAFTA Winner Predictions

The 78th edition of the BAFTAs, the U.K.’s version of the Academy Awards, occur this Sunday and it could help shape an already topsy-turvy awards season.

I’m going to give you a winner and runner-up prediction for each feature film race. I won’t spend much time pontificating as I do enough of that for the Oscars. However, it is worth noting BAFTA’s Best Film and the Academy’s Best Picture have matched just twice in the past 10 ceremonies (2020’s Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). With victories at Critics Choice/PGA/DGA last weekend, Anora has anointed itself the Oscar frontrunner. And you could argue that it makes it easier not to select Sean Baker’s pic for BAFTA’s biggest prize.

That’s what I’m doing as I believe Conclave and The Brutalist could battle for BAFTA and I’m giving the slight edge to the former. We’re talking coin flip territory. Don’t get me wrong. Anora could take this and solidify its status even more so. I just have a hunch otherwise.

BAFTA/Oscar matches improve in other major races. For Director and Supporting Actress, it’s 7 out of the past 10. For Actor and Supporting Actor, it is 8 and we have 9/10 in Actress. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice have elevated Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin to favorited status. The smart money is on that quartet and I’m not projecting an upset.

Here’s my rundown and I’ll have recap up Sunday!

BEST FILM

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Predicted Winner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Edward Berger, Conclave

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore, The Substance

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

Predicted Winner: Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

Predicted Winner: No Other Land

Runner-Up: Daughters

BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: I’m Still Here

BEST CASTING

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST EDITING

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST MAKE UP & HAIR

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: The Substance

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST SOUND

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

Predicted Winner: Better Man

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Predicted Winner: Conclave

Runner-Up: Kneecap

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

Predicted Winner: Kneecap

Runner-Up: Santosh

Best Children’s & Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Predicted Winner: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

EE Rising Star Award

Marisa Abela, Jharrel Jerome, David Jonsson, Mikey Madison, Nabhaan Rizwan

Predicted Winner: Mikey Madison

Runner-Up: Marisa Abela

And that leaves us with these pictures generating these numbers of victories:

5 Wins

Conclave

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Anora (two if you count Madison’s Rising Star victory), Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kneecap, No Other Land, A Real Pain, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

97th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.

As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.

Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 9/10

The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

How I Did: 4/5

DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

How I Did: 5/5

The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/5

Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Anora is expected to shine.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Conclave is expected to shine.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 3/5

After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

How I Did: 3/5

Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

How I Did: 3/5

My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

How I Did: 3/5

I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This is where The Substance could materialize.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

How I Did: 3/5

“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This could be a Wicked win.

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?

And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.

Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:

13 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Wicked

8 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

6 Nominations

Anora

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, The Substance

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards: FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.

Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.

Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.

BEST PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Sing Sing

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariane Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Vermiglio

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Moana 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Daughters

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Sugarcane

Will & Harper

Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST FILM EDITING

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

BEST SOUND

Blitz

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Twisters

Runner-Up: Wicked

That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance

3 Nominations

A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio

I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.

78th BAFTA Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 4/5

I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

How I Did: 9/10

I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.

Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

How I Did: 2/5

Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.

Children’s and Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.

Film Not in the English Language

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 4/5

I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.

Documentary

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.

Animated Film

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.

Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 5/6

I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.

Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is where Anora could get a prize.

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 4/5

Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.

Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

How I Did: 5/6

I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.

Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.

Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 4/6

Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.

Casting

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

How I Did: 2/5

This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.

Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

How I Did: 4/5

Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.

Costume Design

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.

Editing

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap

How I Did: 3/5

Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.

Make-Up and Hair

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.

Original Score

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.

Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.

Sound

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.

Special Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).

And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…