Tag: jennifer lawrence

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 22nd Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 4)

3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)

6. Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Lion (PR: 8)

8. Loving (PR: 6)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

11. Jackie (PR: 12)

12. Arrival (PR: 10)

13. Sully (PR: 14)

14. Live by Night (PR: 19)

15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)

18. Allied (PR: 17)

19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)

21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)

22. The Founder (PR: 20)

23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)

24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)

25. Passengers (PR: 18)

Dropped Out:

The Girl on the Train

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)

9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)

11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)

12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)

14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)

15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)

4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)

9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)

15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sally Hawkins, Maudie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)

9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)

11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)

12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)

15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bill Nighy, Their Finest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)

5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)

11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)

12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)

13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)

15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 5)

5. Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)

10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

11. Zootopia (PR: 10)

12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)

14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Passengers

Miss Sloane

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 4)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Sully (PR: 8)

9. Live by Night (PR: 12)

10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)

11. Elle (PR: 10)

12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)

13. Indignation (PR: 15)

14. Denial (PR: 13)

15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!

The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.

As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.

Let’s go to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Silence (PR: 3)

4) Fences (PR: 4)

5) Moonlight (PR: 5)

6) Loving (PR: 6)

7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

8) Lion (PR: 11)

9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10) Arrival (PR: 13)

11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)

12) Jackie (PR: 12)

13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14) Sully (PR: 16)

15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)

16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)

17) Allied (PR: 19)

18) Passengers (PR: 17)

19) Live by Night (PR: 25)

20) The Founder (PR: 21)

21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)

23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)

DROPPED OUT:

American Pastoral, Moana, Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)

5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)

11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)

12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)

7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)

8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)

9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)

12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)

4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)

14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)

15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)

13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

John Legend, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)

10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)

11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)

12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)

15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)

Dropped Out:

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) La La Land (PR: 3)

2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3) Moonlight (PR: 2)

4) Loving (PR: 4)

5) Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8) The Lobster (PR: 8)

9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

10) Zootopia (PR: 11)

11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)

13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Passengers (PR: 13)

15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Founder

Gold

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences (PR: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

4) Silence (PR: 4)

5) Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Arrival (PR: 8)

7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8) Sully (PR: 12)

9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

10) Elle (PR: 11)

11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

12) Live by Night (PR: 13)

13) Denial (PR: 14)

14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Pastoral

And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 8th Edition

As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.

Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1) La Land Land

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Silence

4) Fences

5) Moonlight

6) Loving

7) Manchester by the Sea

8) Nocturnal Animals

9) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

10) The Birth of a Nation

11) Lion

12) Jackie

13) Arrival

14) 20th Century Women

15) Hidden Figures

16) Sully

17) Passengers

18) Hell or High Water

19) Allied

20) Moana

21) The Founder

22) The Jungle Bok

23) Collateral Beauty

24) Gold

25) Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence

4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

5) Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival

11) Garth Davis, Lion

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie

15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Denzel Washington, Fences

2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving

4) Michael Keaton, The Founder

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Other Possibilities:

6) Tom Hanks, Sully

7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

9) Dev Patel, Lion

10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Viola Davis, Fences

3) Natalie Portman, Jackie

4) Ruth Negga, Loving

5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Other Possibilities:

6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

9) Amy Adams, Arrival

10) Rooney Mara, Una

11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

15) Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2) Liam Neeson, Silence

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

10) Timothy Spall, Denial

11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

13) John Legend, La La Land

14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully

15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Other Possibilities:

6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

9) Nicole Kidman, Lion

10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars

15) Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) Moonlight

3) La La Land

4) Loving

5) Jackie

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women

7) Hell or High Water

8) The Lobster

9) The Birth of a Nation

10) The Founder

11) Zootopia

12) Gold

13) Passengers

14) Rules Don’t Apply

15) Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Nocturnal Animals

4) Silence

5) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

6) Lion

7) Hidden Figures

8) Arrival

9) Love & Friendship

10) The Girl on the Train

11) Elle

12) Sully

13) Live by Night

14) Denial

15) The Jungle Book

And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Day 3 of my early Oscar predictions arrives with Best Actress. These late August/early September guesstimates yielded two of the eventual nominees in 2014 and three last year.

Looking over the field of possibilities for Best Actress in 2016, one thing seems clear. More than most years, this particular race seems loaded with legitimate contenders and it could be one of the more competitive categories of the year.

Let’s start with three actresses who have received nominations but never won: four-time nominee and never winner Annette Bening is headlining this fall’s 20th Century Women. She was a strong contender for wins in both 1999 and 2004 (for American Beauty and Being Julia), but lost out in both cases to Hilary Swank.

There’s five-time nominee and never winner Amy Adams, who has two pictures in which she could be recognized: Arrival and Nocturnal Animals.

We have Viola Davis in this December’s Denzel Washington directed Fences. She was nominated for 2011’s The Help but lost to Meryl Streep in her role as The Iron Lady.

Speaking of Meryl Streep… there’s Meryl Streep going for her 20th nomination as Florence Foster Jenkins. Its potential drawback could be muted box office numbers this summer, but you can never count her out.

Emma Stone will likely draw attention for her work in the musical drama La La Land. Ruth Negga has received early raves costarring in the interracial romance Loving. Then there’s the biopic Jackie (as in Kennedy), which casts 2010 winner Natalie Portman in the title role. She could be a major contender, yet there’s some uncertainty as to when it’ll come out.

Oh there’s more! Jennifer Lawrence will go for her fifth nomination in seven years with sci-fi drama Passengers. Emily Blunt could be a player with The Girl on the Train, as could previous nominees Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Rosamund Pike (A United Kingdom), and Rooney Mara (Lion). Not to mention previous winners like Sally Field (My Name is Doris), Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky) and Marion Cotillard (Allied).

Bottom line: this race looks packed and we’ll see how it develops in the coming weeks. For now…

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Arrival

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Viola Davis, Fences

Ruth Negga, Loving

Emma Stone, La La Land

Other Possibilities:

Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Sally Field, My Name is Doris

Rebecca Hall, Christine

Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

Rooney Mara, Lion

Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Rosamund Pike, A United Kingdom

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Alicia Vikander, The Light Between Oceans

Rachel Weisz, Denial

Best Actor tomorrow!

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses of All Time (10-6)

We have now reached Top Ten of the Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses in box office history.

And now, numbers 10-6 before we reach our finale tomorrow…

10. Jennifer Lawrence

Career Earnings: $2.3 billion

Franchises: The Hunger Games, X-Men

Highest Grossing Picture: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (2013) – $424 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 9 (The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, X-Men: First Class, X-Men: Days of Future Past, X-Men: Apocalypse, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle)

Lowest Grosser: Garden Party (2008) – $10,000

Overall Rank: 57

9. Anne Hathaway

Career Earnings: $2.3 billion

Franchises: The Princess Diaries, Rio, Alice in Wonderland

Highest Grossing Picture: The Dark Knight Rises (2012) – $448 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 10 (The Princess Diaries, The Devil Wears Prada, Get Smart, Valentine’s Day, Alice in Wonderland, Rio, The Dark Knight Rises, Les Miserables, Rio 2, Interstellar)

Lowest Grosser: Song One (2015) – $32,000

Overall Rank: 52

8. Sandra Bullock

Career Earnings: $2.4 billion

Franchises: Speed, Miss Congeniality

Highest Grossing Picture: Minions (2015) – $336 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8 (Minions, Gravity, The Blind Side, The Proposal, The Heat, Speed, A Time to Kill, Miss Congeniality)

Lowest Grosser: Who Shot Patakango? (1992) – $2,000

Overall Rank: 47

7. Emma Watson

Career Earnings: $2.6 billion

Franchises: Harry Potter

Highest Grossing Picture: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011) – $381 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 10 (Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, This is the End, Noah)

Lowest Grosser: Colonia (2016) – $15,000

Overall Rank: 32

6. Elizabeth Banks

Career Earnings: $2.7 billion

Franchises: Hunger Games, Pitch Perfect

Highest Grossing Picture: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (2013) – $424 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 8 (The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, The LEGO Movie, Pitch Perfect 2, Seabiscuit, The 40 Yr. Old Virgin

Lowest Grosser: Ordinary Sinner (2003) – $4,000

Top 5 manana!

 

X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction

The Mutants are back in the multiplex as X-Men: Apocalypse hits screens this Memorial Day weekend. Bryan Singer (who directed the first two well-regarded entries in the original trilogy and 2014’s Days of Future Past) is back behind the camera with franchise regulars James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Nicholas Hoult, and Rose Byrne returning, in addition to Oscar Isaac and Olivia Munn.

The pic is likely to rule the holiday weekend, but it is worth noting that competition is fiercer than two years ago when Future Past debuted on the same weekend. In 2014, the only other newcomer was the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore dud Blended. This time around, it’s Alice Through the Looking Glass, another high-profile sequel.

This is the 8th X-Men franchise flick in the 21st century (counting the two stand-alone Wolverine features) and the best opening so far is ironically 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand. Despite being generally regarded as the worst of the X series, it premiered to $102 million over that year’s Memorial Day Weekend from Friday to Sunday with $122 million for the four-day holiday frame. Days of Future Past was second with a $90 million Friday to Sunday and $110 million Friday to Monday.

Apocalypse would love to match Last Stand‘s debut or exceed it and there’s another common bond between them. This is the third movie in the current trilogy that began with 2011’s X-Men: First Class and like Stand, it’s receiving the weakest reviews. First Class earned an 87% Rotten Tomatoes score. Future Past improved slightly with 91%. Apocalypse currently sits at just 53%. The somewhat negative word of mouth and more significant competition could cause this to gross under what Past managed. However, I don’t think it’ll be much under.

I look for Apocalypse to post a low to mid-80s start for the traditional three-day with a gross just eclipsing the century mark for the holiday weekend.

X-Men: Apocalypse opening weekend prediction: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Alice Through the Looking Glass prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/05/18/alice-through-the-looking-glass-box-office-prediction/

 

Joy Movie Review

“Joy and pain. Like sunshine and rain.” – Rob Base & D.J. E-Z Rock

David O. Russell’s latest tells a fable grounded in reality of Joy Mangano, who invented a new way to clean floors in the early 90s with the Miracle Mop. It continues his habit during this decade of taking ordinary people and telling their extraordinary situations.

Our title character is portrayed by Russell’s muse Jennifer Lawrence. As a little girl, we see that she loves making inventions with her hands. This leads to the aforementioned mop, though selling it is no easy feat. Her quirky family includes her father Rudy (Robert De Niro, thankfully doing his best work nowadays with this director), who is restless in his love life and in a burgeoning relationship with a wealthy widow (Isabella Rossellini). That widow provides a pipeline to funding the Miracle operation, though not without serious reservations and Joy mortgaging her home twice. Joy’s mother (Virginia Madsen) is essentially an anti-social shut in who exists vicariously through the soap opera characters she watches all day. This allows for some interesting cameos. There’s Joy’s aspiring singer ex-husband (Edgar Ramirez), who still lives with her and serves as a trusted advisor. And Diane Ladd is her constantly supportive grandmother, who narrates these proceedings.

Joy is about the many pains that she must face to convince her family and the consuming public that she’s onto something. The journey eventually leads her to the upstart QVC, headed by a sturdy executive (Bradley Cooper) who conducts the network’s infomercials like an orchestra (her first segment is directed with the energy and enthusiasm we expect from this filmmaker). This allows for the fascinating of seeing Melissa Rivers play her late mother Joan. She soon learns the gloomy side of business, even when success comes. The picture is divided into two halves. The first is mostly about the pain of getting her venture started. The second has more joy and a little more sunshine, but pain is always around the corner. Rob Base and DJ E-Z Rock couldn’t have known these lyrics would apply here, but they do.

More than anything, Joy gives Lawrence another platform to shine and she takes advantage. The film never does reach the emotional, comedic, or dramatic heights of previous efforts like The Fighter and, in particular, Silver Linings Playbook. By the movie’s end, we are dealing with a central character who’s gone from sketching her designs in crayon to a multi-million dollar empire. Yet her saga never feels as fraught with nervous excitement as that regional Pennsylvania dance contest in Playbook. Still, Joy’s strange odyssey is one worth taking due to Russell’s exuberance and Lawrence’s talent.

*** (out of four)

 

Todd’s 2015 Oscar Winner Predictions: Round 1

It’s been two days since the Oscar nominations came out, allowing some time to pass to digest what and who is being recognized. After numerous posts prognosticating the nominations, we now arrive at this question: What Will Win??

Today brings my initial round of guesses on the movies and performers that I believe will get their gold statues. I will definitely have a second and final round posted probably two to three days before the February ceremony.

Let’s get to it:

BEST PICTURE

First off, there are four selections that basically should be happy with the nomination: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room. Mad Max: Fury Road is a major long shot. That leaves a three picture race and indeed it is. Between The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight – this is truly a competitive category this time around. I’m currently giving the ever so slight edge to Spotlight, which has been considered the soft front runner for a while now. Be warned though: the other two are hot on its heels.

PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR

Tom McCarthy’s work in Spotlight could be honored with outside chances for Adam McKay (The Big Short) or George Miller (Mad Max). Lenny Abrahamson’s surprise nomination for Room succeeded in screwing up people’s predictions. He has no chance to win. Yet I’ll go with the Academy honoring Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s direction in The Revenant, just one year after he received the prize for Birdman.

PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu

BEST ACTOR

We will make this simple: it appears that Leonardo DiCaprio is finally going to win a statue for The Revenant. He is the very heavy favorite and if he doesn’t emerge victorious, it would probably constitute the largest upset of the evening.

PREDICTED WINNER: DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS

Like lead Actor, there is a front runner here with Brie Larson in Room. Unlike Actor, the possibility for an upset is real with both Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) and Saoirse Ronan. I’ll stick with Larson though. Cate Blanchett (Carol) and Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) seem like non factors.

PREDICTED WINNER: Larson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This was an incredibly difficult category to predict with about 12 performances in the running. Now that we know the nominees, this is a race ripe for an upset. Any of the five – Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed) – are feasible recipients. Rylance has won some precursors, but like the Golden Globes, I’ll project that sentimentality wins out with Stallone standing center stage.

PREDICTED WINNER: Stallone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

No major front runner here but Alicia Vikander had a great year with another heralded role in Ex Machina. I’ll predict her work in The Danish Girl eeks out a win over Rooney Mara (Carol), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Globes winner Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight).

PREDICTED WINNER: Vikander

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Short and sweet here – Spotlight is the heavy front runner here and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win here. I’m much more confident in predicting a victory for it here than in Picture.

PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Martian or Room have outside shots, but this looks like a win for The Big Short.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa has its hardcore fans, but Pixar’s Inside Out is the big favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Inside Out

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Easy pick. Son of Saul is a huge front runner. Mustang is the only completion.

PREDICTED WINNER: Son of Saul

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy, chronicling the career of the late singer Amy Winehouse, is the favorite. For now, however, I’m going with an upset pick in the form of Cartel Land.

PREDICTED WINNER: Cartel Land

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The legendary John Williams could be in the running for his latest Star Wars score, but I’ll predict the Academy honors another legend: Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Hateful Eight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Was very surprised to see “See You Again” from Furious 7 snubbed. To me, that would have been the main competition for “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground, performed by Lady Gaga.

PREDICTED WINNER: “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground

BEST SOUND EDITING

I believe these sound categories will come down to a battle between Mad Max and Star Wars, with The Revenant as a spoiler. For now, I’m splitting the difference.

PREDICTED WINNER: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND MIXING

See above.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Once again, I see this as a contest between Chewbacca and Max. I’ll give Max the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

This is another tough one with Mad Max maintaining a small edge over The Revenant and The Martian.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Hateful Eight stands a chance here, as does Mad Max. However, I believe Emmanuel Lubezki will take home his third Oscar in a row for The Revenant.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Revenant

BEST EDITING

This race often matches Picture and could here with Spotlight. The Big Short, Mad Max, and The Revenant are in the mix. This is practically a coin flip for me right now so don’t be shocked if this changes.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Only three nominees here and Mad Max and The Revenant are likely the only two winner possibilities.

PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Sandy Powell could split her own vote between Carol and Cinderella. Mad Max and The Danish Girl are in the running, but I’ll go with Powell and her work in Carol.

PREDICTED WINNER: Carol

And there you have it! My first Oscar winner predictions.

 

 

Todd’s FINAL 2015 Oscar Predictions

Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.

Many questions abound:

  • Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
  • Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
  • Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
  • Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
  • I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.

As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.

Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:

Best Picture

As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Big Short (No Change)
  3. The Revenant (+3)
  4. Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
  5. The Martian (No Change)
  6. Carol (+1)
  7. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  8. Room (-4)
  9. Brooklyn (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)

11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)

12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

13. Sicario (+1)

14. Inside Out (-1)

15. Steve Jobs (+1)

16. Ex Machina (+2)

17. Trumbo (No Change)

18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)

19. Son of Saul (+1)

20. The Danish Girl (-1)

21. Creed (No Change)

Best Director

Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
  3. Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
  4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)

8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)

9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)

11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)

12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)

13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)

14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)

15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)

16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)

17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)

18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)

19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)

20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)

Best Actor

This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
  5. Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)

10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)

11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)

12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)

Best Actress

As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
  5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)

8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)

9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)

10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)

Best Supporting Actor

Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
  3. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
  4. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
  5. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)

7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)

8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)

9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)

12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)

Best Supporting Actress

Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
  4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)

7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)

8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)

9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)

10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)

11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (No Change)
  3. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  4. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  5. Sicario (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ex Machina (-1)

7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)

8. Love and Mercy (No Change)

9. Son of Saul (+2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. The Big Short (No Change)
  2. Carol (No Change)
  3. Room (No Change)
  4. Steve Jobs (+1)
  5. Brooklyn (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (No Change)

7. The Revenant (+1)

8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)

9. Trumbo (-2)

10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)

11. Anomalisa (No Change)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Inside Out (No Change)
  2. Anomalisa (No Change)
  3. Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
  4. Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
  5. The Peanuts Movie (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)

7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)

8. Minions (Previously Unranked)

Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)

  1. Amy
  2. The Look of Silence
  3. Winter on Fire
  4. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
  5. He Named Me Malala

Other Possibilities:

6. Listen to Me Marlon

7. Best of Enemies

8. The Hunting Ground

9. Where to Invade Next

10. Heart of the Dog

Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)

  1. Son of Saul
  2. Mustang
  3. A War
  4. The Brand New Testament
  5. Embrace of the Serpent

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fencer

7. Labyrinth of Lies

8. Theeb

9. Viva

Best Production Design

  1. The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
  3. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  4. Carol (-2)
  5. The Revenant (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brooklyn (-1)

7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)

8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)

9. The Hateful Eight (-3)

10. Cinderella (-3)

Best Cinematography

  1. The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  3. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Bridge of Spies (+1)
  5. Sicario (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Carol (+1)

7. Son of Saul (+2)

8. The Martian (-2)

9. The Assassin (-1)

10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)

Best Costume Design

  1. The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Carol (No Change)
  3. Cinderella (+1)
  4. Brooklyn (-1)
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)

7. The Hateful Eight (-1)

8. Suffragette (-1)

9. The Revenant (No Change)

10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)

Best Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Big Short (No Change)
  3. Spotlight (+2)
  4. The Revenant (No Change)
  5. Bridge of Spies (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (-3)

7. Sicario (+3)

8. Steve Jobs (-2)

9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)

10. The Hateful Eight (-1)

11. Room (-3)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)

Other Possibilities:

4. Black Mass (-1)

5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)

6. Concussion (No Change)

7. Legend (No Change)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (+3)
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  4. Sicario (No Change)
  5. The Martian (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)

7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)

8. Jurassic World (-1)

Best Sound Editing

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  3. The Revenant (No Change)
  4. The Martian (No Change)
  5. The Hateful Eight (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario (-1)

7. Jurassic World (+1)

8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
  3. Jurassic World (No Change)
  4. The Martian (No Change)
  5. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ex Machina (-1)

7. The Walk (No Change)

8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)

9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)

10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)

Best Score

  1. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  2. Carol (+1)
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
  4. Bridge of Spies (-2)
  5. The Danish Girl (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spotlight (No Change)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

Best Original Song

  1. “See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
  2. “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
  3. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
  4. “Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
  5. “So Long” from Concussion (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)

These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Revenant

9 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

8 Nominations

Carol

7 Nominations

Bridge of Spies

6 Nominations

The Martian

5 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight

4 Nominations

The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

3 Nominations

Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs

2 Nominations

Inside Out, Trumbo

1 Nomination

Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth

And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…

 

Golden Globes Reaction

Well, the most high profile Oscar precursor has come and gone in a haze of bleeped out words, priceless Leo DiCaprio reactions to Lady GaGa, and the burgeoning bromance of host Ricky Gervais and Mel Gibson. Through all that craziness, there were actual awards given out and I had a spotty record predicting the winners.

Of the 14 film categories, I correctly predicted 8 (hey – over 50%, right??). Yet I certainly missed some biggies. This started with the fact that The Revenant performed much better than anticipated, winning Best Drama and Best Director with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. I predicted that Spotlight (which was totally shut out) would win Picture with Mad Max: Fury Road‘s George Miller taking the director prize. What does this mean for the Oscars? Perhaps nothing, but it does reinforce the fact that if Spotlight is the Oscar front runner, it’s a soft one.

I also whiffed on the Best Musical or Comedy Picture race as Ridley Scott’s The Martian (even with its questionable category placement) won over my predicted winner The Big Short.

As for the lead acting races, I did manage to go four for four: Leo in Drama for The Revenant, Brie Larson in Actress (Drama) for Room, Matt Damon in Actor (Comedy or Musical) for The Martian, and Jennifer Lawrence in Actress (Comedy or Musical) for Joy. I also correctly said Sylvester Stallone in Supporting Actor for Creed, which provided one of the longest ovations of the evening (along with Leo). Supporting Actress was a bit of a dice roll, especially with likely Oscar contenders Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) being nominated in Lead at the Golden Globes. I said Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, but the Hollywood Foreign Press went with Kate Winslet’s work in Steve Jobs. That biopic about the tech giant also had a surprise win in Best Screenplay over my prediction, yet again, of Spotlight.

Others I got right: Ennio Morricone for Score (The Hateful Eight), Animated Feature (Inside Out), and Foreign Language Film (Son of Saul). And one more wrong guess as Sam Smith took Best Original Song for Spectre theme “Writing’s on the Wall”, even though it was received with mostly ambivalence. My prediction for Wiz Khalifa’s huge hit and Paul Walker tribute “See You Again” from Furious 7.

Of course, Thursday will bring us Oscar nominations and I’ll have my predictions up on the blog either tomorrow or Wednesday. Meanwhile, may visions of Jonah Hill in that Revenant bear costume continue to fill your mind…