Tag: Jawan

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

Among a crush of new product coming our way this long Christmas weekend, the Indian-Telugu language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire hopes to ignite some interest when it opens December 22nd. Clocking in at 175 minutes, Prashanth Neel directs with a cast including Prabhas, Prithviraj Sukumaran, Shruti Hassan, and Jagapathi Babu.

For comps, you don’t have to look back far. September’s Jawan is from a similar genre and is nearly the same length (169 minutes). It opened in early September to $6.1 million on just over 800 screens (the reported number that Ceasefire will see). That was over a traditional three-day weekend, but this arrives on the extended holiday frame with Christmas falling on a Monday.

While this is expected to make the vast bulk of its money overseas, this could have a similar start stateside and perhaps a bit more due to the holiday. Yet the marketplace is so crowded that this may struggle to reach what Jawan did in three days.

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasfire opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

September 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Sequel heavy September chugs along this weekend as Kenneth Branagh’s A Haunting in Venice continues his Hercule Poirot series and seeks a #1 start. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

A Haunting in Venice Box Office Prediction

The follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express and last year’s Death on the Nile is actually receiving some of the best reviews of the trio. I suspect it may manage to top what Nile did while only reaching about half of what Express grossed out of the gate.

After a solid if unspectacular start, The Nun II may see a high 60s plummet that’s fairly normal for its genre. That would mean a second place showing barely in the double digits.

Holdover threequels The Equalizer 3 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will likely populate the 3-4 slots with drops in the low to mid 40s while Barbie should round out the top five. I figure the year’s biggest hit will remain in the high five as I look for Jawan to have a hefty decline after its impressive premiere (more on that below).

Here’s how I envision that top five:

1. A Haunting in Venice

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

2. The Nun II

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. The Equalizer 3

Predicted Gross: $7 million

4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (September 8-10)

The Nun II didn’t come anywhere near the franchise Conjuring Universe peak $53 million that its predecessor made in 2018. It still scared up a respectable $32.6 million, under my $38.7 million prognosis.

The Equalizer 3 tumbled in the mid 60s during its sophomore frame with $12 million, below my $15.4 million call. The two-week total is $61 million as it hopes to hit $100 million like parts 1 and 2. It’s a legit question mark as to whether it gets there.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 debuted in line with my expectations with a meh $10 million (I said $10.3 million). That is slightly better than other estimates though it’s well under the $16 million of part 2 from 2016.

Acclaimed Hindi action flick Jawan admittedly was not on my radar screen like it should’ve been. The $6.1 million haul put it in fourth place with the second strongest per theater average after The Nun II.

Barbie rounded out the top five with $5.7 million (I went with $6.4 million) as its eight week total rose to a massive $620 million.

I incorrectly had Blue Beetle in the top five, but it was sixth with $3.8 million. I was right on pace with $3.9 million. The DCU disappointment made $63 million in four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…