If you had asked me to guess the Rotten Tomatoes score for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths before its Venice debut today, I probably would’ve needed 55 guesses before I said 45%. Yet that’s where the acclaimed filmmaker’s seventh feature currently stands.
Simply put, that is shocking. Beginning with his debut Amores perros and its nomination for best foreign language pic in 2000, every Inarritu effort has attracted the attention of the Academy. His 2003 English debut 21 Grams landed acting nods for Naomi Watts and Benicio del Toro. 2006’s Babel received seven nominations including Picture and Director. 2010’s Biutiful got mentions in the foreign race and for Javier Bardem in Best Actor. 2014’s Birdman was the biggest breakthrough with nine nods and wins for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay among others. One year later, Inarritu would win Best Director again for The Revenant, which also finally brought Leonardo DiCaprio to the podium in its total of 12 nominations.
So… to put it mildly, anything Inarritu makes is subject to massive awards speculation. Bardo is a return to his native Mexico for a three hour Fellini inspired dramedy. A November 18th theatrical run is planned before a Netflix streaming start on December 16th. It’s said to be based on the auteur’s real life experiences and initial reaction (as evidenced by the early RT rating) is troubling. Indulgent is a common word thus far.
The festival season beginning in Venice and with Telluride and Toronto on deck is just two days old. Bardo buzz is guaranteed to be one of the biggest surprises. In my predictions last week, I had the movie, Inarritu’s direction, and Daniel Gimenez Cacho in Best Actor all ranked 4th. Griselda Sicillani was fifth in Supporting Actress and there’s where I had this for Original Screenplay. It is very possible that it could fall out of contention altogether in each race mentioned when I publish my next update on Labor Day. I am confident I won’t be predicting nominations for any of the above. The largest benefactor to a Bardo collapse could be Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave. The heralded Japanese mystery could find itself as the international frontrunner now and more of an option in the BP derby.
A slight word of caution: this is just one festival. Bardo screens in Telluride this weekend and maybe the negative chatter will turn to the positive and it won’t be the non-factor that I suspect it’s become. Even the disappointed critics are singling out Darius Khondji’s cinematography so it could continue Inarritu’s streak of every picture getting some Oscar love. Let there be no doubt, however, as that streak is in serious danger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
At last weekend’s Oscars, Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem were both nominated as Lucy (as in Lucille Ball) and Desi (as in Arnaz) for Being the Ricardos. We could see the couple/sitcom stars represented at next year’s ceremony in documentary form.
Lucy and Desi premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January and is now available for streaming on Amazon Prime. It was directed by another famed TV comedienne – Amy Poehler. Reviews stand at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Docs about notable entertainment subjects often fail to garner the attention of Academy voters. Recent omissions from the five nominees in the race include Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Mister Rogers) and Julia (2021’s feature about Julia Child). Despite the pleasing critical reaction, I suspect Lucy and Desi could suffer the same fate. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And it’s come to this! After seven months of endless speculation, predictions, and posts – the 94th Academy Awards (with your hosts Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer, and Regina Hall) airs this Sunday evening.
These are my final picks for the races covering feature films. Will the Best Picture be CODA?
Or The Power of the Dog?
We have ourselves some real intrigue as both are strong possibilities. Either way, a steamer (either Netflix or Apple TV) should pick up its inaugural Best Pic victory.
Will there be upsets in any of the acting derbies where there seems to be a consensus four based on precursors? And just what will occur in the screenplay races which look unpredictable?
For each race, I’ll give you a bit of commentary along with my projected victor and the runner-up.
Let’s get to it! On Sunday evening, you will see a recap with how I performed…
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
Well, the big daddy of them all has certainly become fascinating. CODA, the little Sundance pic that could, has surged in the past few days. In addition to winning the SAG Ensemble prize, it captured the Producers Guild top honor and was a BAFTA selection for Adapted Screenplay. These designations (PGA especially) are significant precursors. A strong argument could be made that it has the momentum as voting closed yesterday. In fact, I’ve seen more prognosticators picking it this week than not…
However, The Power of the Dog is still quite viable. It took the Golden Globe Best Drama trophy as well as Critics Choice and BAFTA. Until CODA‘s rise, it was the heavy favorite.
We’ve got a real coin flip, folks! That definitely makes the end of Oscar night more suspenseful than last year when Nomadland seemed unbeatable and indeed was.
I don’t believe any of the other eight pictures have a chance. As for the two that do, I’ve gone back and forth constantly all week. There’s a time to stop speculating and make a final pick and I still believe there’s enough power for the Dog to edge out CODA. That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it turns out the other way.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Commentary:
This is far easier than Picture. With CODA maker Sian Heder absent, Jane Campion is in line to become the third female (and second in a row) to make a podium trip. She’s won all the key precursors – DGA, Globes, Critics Choice. It’s even a challenge to name a runner-up (I guess I’ll say Spielberg because he’s Spielberg). Make no mistake – this is one of the simplest checkmarks on the ballot.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessicas Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Commentary:
Kidman garnered the initial heat after a surprise Globe win, but that’s stalled as no other awards programs followed suit. Instead it’s been Chastain on the minor streak with SAG and Critics Choice. If there’s an upset in any acting derby, this is probably where it happens. Stewart’s road to Oscar looked shaky after some snubs. Academy voters could reward her and there’s some chatter about Cruz being viable. Yet I’m sticking with the safest best and that’s Chastain taking her first gold.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Riunner-Up:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
During the fall, I was thinking there could be a barnburner between Smith and Cumberbatch (with Garfield as potential spoiler). That’s not how it’s played out as the Fresh Prince has been crowned the king in all preceding shows. I expect the sweep to continue.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Commentary:
Buckley and Dench were surprising inclusions, but there won’t be any shocks with the winner. DeBose has run the table and she should represent Story‘s lone victory.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Despite its quartet of performers getting nominations, Dog is likely to produce Oscars for none of them. Smit-McPhee received the Golden Globe but it’s been all Kotsur since. This is the race where I’m most confident of a CODA moment.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Runner-Up:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
Good luck with this one! The Writer’s Guild threw everyone for a loop last weekend when Don’t Look Up won over Licorice Pizza (Belfast was not eligible). I just don’t envision the Academy honoring Up. With a Belfast or Pizza victory, they would bestowing first ever Oscars to Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson respectively. With the Globe and Critics Choice going to Belfast, it has my vote (though it’s close).
PREDICTED WINNER:
Belfast
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
CODA‘s BAFTA win kickstarted its momentum. Even if Dog is Best Picture, CODA could still take this. On the other hand, I think there’s a better chance Best Pic and Adapted Screenplay match so I’m rolling with the Dog with no degree of confidence whatsoever.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Commentary:
I’m tempted to pick a Mitchells upset, but it’s dangerous to pick against Disney and Encanto is the frontrunner.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
This is unquestionably one of the no brainer picks as Drive My Car has dominated the precursors and is the only nominee to also nab a Best Picture nod.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Commentary:
With nominations in Animated Feature, International Feature, and Doc – it sure seems like Flee should win one of them. It might stand the best chance in this competition, but Summer of Soul has been impressive in precursors and should continue the streak.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up:
Flee
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
This might be the tech race where Dog is successful. I’m not predicting it though and (get used to hearing this) think Dune emerges.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Commentary:
Cruella has killed it the preceding competitions. Dune, if it crushes all techs, could take it but I’m going with the former.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
Commentary:
Don’t sleep on King Richard which was bestowed the EDDIE award. I still think this is Dune‘s to lose.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Commentary:
Gucci could fashion a 1 for 1 victory but Tammy Faye has taken some precursors.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Runner-Up:
House of Gucci
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Like Cinematography, this is between Dog and Dune. Like Cinematography, I’m choosing the latter.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Commentary:
Diane Warren gets her 13th nomination with “Somehow” and somehow she’s never won. That will continue. The smart money is on the 007 theme song from Billie Eilish. Yet I’m going with a minor upset with the Disney tune.
PREDICTED WINNER:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Runner-Up:
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
For the last three categories, I could just say Dune and be done with it. In fact, I think I will…
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
There isn’t one… that’s how I’m confident I am that Dune takes it.
And so, ladies and gents, that means I’m predicting that these movies win these numbers of Oscars:
6 Wins
Dune
3 Wins
The Power of the Dog
2 Wins
Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
1 Win
Belfast, CODA, Cruella, Drive My Car, King Richard, Summer of Soul, West Side Story
The performance of J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos is my fourth Case Of post for the Supporting Actor nominees. If you didn’t catch the first three, they are linked here:
He’s a well-respected Hollywood veteran and the Academy’s voters dug the acting troupe from Ricardos as Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem were also nominated.
The Case Against J.K. Simmons:
This nomination was a bit of a surprise. Simmons got in despite no love from SAG or the Globes (though Critics Choice did mention him). The film itself failed to nab Picture or screenplay nods. Of the three Ricardos hopefuls, only Kidman stands a decent chance at winning.
Previous Nominations: 1
Whiplash (Supporting Actor – 2014, WON)
The Verdict:
Seven years ago, Simmons was the overwhelming favorite to take this race in Whiplash and he did. For Ricardos, I would rank him fifth out of five for the contenders.
My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Spielberg’s direction of West Side Story…
Playing TV legend Lucille Ball, Nicole Kidman’s performance in Being the Ricardos is next up in my Case Of posts for the Best Actress nominees. If you didn’t catch the first three entries, they’re here:
It actually seems like Kidman should have more than five nominations and she hasn’t won in 19 years. Ricardos is a golden opportunity for the Academy to make her a two-time winner. The Golden Globes made a victory here more possible when she took the top Drama prize at that ceremony. Oscar voters were clearly impressed with the cast as Javier Bardem and J.K. Simmons also received nods.
The Case Against Nicole Kidman:
A SAG award might’ve made her the heavy frontrunner, but Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) won it. Ricardos itself received mixed critical reaction and missed major categories like Picture and Original Screenplay.
As has been discussed many times on the blog, Best Actress is wide open (just like last year). I’d say Kidman and Chastain (based on their early hardware) probably stand the best chance, but nobody is an overwhelming favorite by any means.
My Case OF posts will continue with Best Actor hopefuls and Will Smith in King Richard…
The SAG Awards air this Sunday night and I’m here to give you my take. For some context, I went 4/5 in my projections from 2017-2019 and 3/5 last year. The winners here will certainly help themselves if they’re nominated for Oscars (as you’ll see – not all are).
Let’s get to it!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
King Richard
Commentary:
I could offer an argument for anything but Gucci (partly because The Birdcage from 1996 is the only winner that wasn’t nominated for BP at the Oscars). The rest of the pics are BP players with the Academy. Belfast is the most likely to win (notice frontrunner The Power of the Dog isn’t here). Even though I’m not projecting its lone nominee (Balfe) to take the SAG and it was a surprise that Ciaran Hinds didn’t make it, I’ll say the cast is ultimately honored as a whole. CODA is right on its heels.
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: CODA
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Commentary:
Welcome to the confounding world of Best Actress in the 2021 awards season and this is easily the trickiest race to figure out. The Oscar/SAG match is 3/5. Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Acadeny’s cut in favor of Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).
Let’s start with Gaga. The SAG winner in this race has never not been nominated for an Oscar so the superstar would certainly make history if she takes this. That stat discourages me from calling her name, but who knows? All hopefuls here would be first-time winners in this category (Hudson took Supporting Actress 15 years back in Dreamgirls). She seems least likely to win. So we’re down to Chastain, Colman, and Kidman. All could prevail. Kidman took the Golden Globe and a podium trip could solidify her status as the Oscar frontrunner. Chastain’s showy role could be honored and it’s a bit of a coin flip for me. I’ll give Kidman an ever so slight edge.
Predicted Winner: Nicole Kidman
Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
Not complicated like Actress as there’s a 5 for 5 lineup with the Academy’s nominees. Unlike the Oscars, I do buy into the theory that Garfield might be more of a spoiler than Cumberbatch to Smith. The SAG folks could reward Garfield’s showy role. That said, I’m not betting against Smith.
Predicted Winner: Will Smith
Runner-Up: Andrew Garfield
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga, Passing
Commentary:
There’s only a 2 for 5 symmetry with the big show and that’s DeBose and Dunst. Balfe, Blanchett, and Negga are in over Academy picks Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Judi Dench (Belfast), and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard). I do think it’s between the Oscar contestants. Dunst is a threat though I’m going with DeBose sweeping until I see different.
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose
Runner-Up: Kirsten Dunst
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Like Supporting Actress, just a 2 for 5 (Kotsur, Smit-McPhee) match. Affleck, Cooper, and Leto got SAG love instead of Oscar selections Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos). And I’ll also say it’s between the two Academy players. This is difficult because I could easily see Smit-McPhee sweeping (he won the Globe). Yet I have a sneaking suspicion the thespians may go for Kotsur. With little confidence, I’ll pick that.
Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur
Runner-Up: Kodi Smit-McPhee
I’ll have reaction up on the ceremony Sunday night!
Javier Bardem’s performance as Desi Arnaz in Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos is my first Case Of post for the five Best Actor candidates.
The Case for Javier Bardem:
Nabbing his fourth nomination (and third in lead), the Supporting Actor winner for No Country for Old Men also picked up Golden Globe and SAG mentions.
The Case Against Javier Bardem:
The only nominations for Ricardos came in the acting races (alongside his costars Nicole Kidman and J.K. Simmons). It’s Kidman who easily stands the best chance after taking the Globe. Bardem’s slot in the competition was generally seen as the fifth one since Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington were seen as strong likelihoods.
Previous Nominations: 3
Before Night Falls (2000 – Actor); No Country for Old Men (2007 – Supporting Actor, WON); Biutiful (2010 – Actor)
The Verdict:
While he’s done well in precursors, Bardem stands little chance at picking up a second statue.
My Case Of posts will continue with the Supporting Actress hopefuls and that begins with Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter…
And at last… they’re out! After months of speculating on the blog (starting all the way back with my initial predictions in August), the Oscar nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were unveiled early this morning.
As always, there’s shocking omissions and surprising additions. There’s races that went as planned. And (for me at least) there’s always that one tricky category where I end up going 2/5. This year it was Documentary Feature which is notoriously tough to figure out. On the flip side, I projected 4 out of the 20 feature film competitions with 5/5 accuracy. All in all – I went 82 for 105 on the picks.
Some initial thoughts before I break it down race by race. The Power of the Dog was easily the winner of the morning with 12 nods (even more than anticipated). It led all nominees with Dune second (10).
Other movies that either met or exceeded expectations: Drive My Car, King Richard, and Nightmare Alley (which was the only somewhat surprising BP addition). For others, it was more of a mixed bag. Belfast garnered 7 mentions but came up short in key tech indicators like Cinematography and Editing. The same can be said for Licorice Pizza. Seven was also the number for West Side Story, but it missed screenplay. Being the Ricardos got 3 acting nods but no Picture or screenplay. And even Dune, with the 10 nods, somehow missed a director nomination for Denis Villeneuve.
Then there’s House of Gucci, which showed up only in Makeup and Hairstyling. No Jared Leto (I predicted he’d be left off), but no Lady Gaga in Actress was perhaps the shocker of the day.
Let’s get into it and I’ll offer my initial take on what/who could win (my final predictions will come shortly before the March 27th show).
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Commentary: My one miss was Alley coming in over Being the Ricardos. Make no mistake. With its 12 mentions, The Power of the Dog is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, the Twitterverse will offer alternate theories. Could Drive My Car‘s impressive haul give us our second foreign BP winner in three years? Could Belfast or West Side Story spoil? I doubt it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Hamaguchi getting in wasn’t unforeseen. If so, I figured he’d do so over Anderson, Branagh, or Spielberg and certainly not Villeneuve. That’s what happened. Campion made history today by becoming the first female nominee to get a second nomination. All signs point to her becoming the third (after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao) to win.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: We now arrive at the biggest head scratcher of the major categories. Gaga’s aforementioned omission is truly unexpected (Cruz takes her slot). The precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG) have been all over the map and there’s no obvious favorite. I would say Cruz doesn’t stand much of a chance, but the other four do (it’s a lot like last year’s Actress derby). This is also the first time since 2005 where no Actress hopeful has their film in contention for Best Picture. Kidman’s Globe win could help and we’ll see what SAG does, but this is wide open.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: That’s more like it! Smith (especially after Richard‘s good morning) is out ahead though I could see Cumberbatch definitely threatening after Dog‘s very good morning. Fun tidbit: not since 1980 has the Best Actor race consisted entirely of previous nominees until today.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: This was the first race announced today and the jaws of prognosticators dropped immediately. Buckley and (especially) Dench were not anticipated by most. I didn’t even have either as my runner-up or second alternate. They displace Ruth Negga (Passing) and Dench’s costar Caitriona Balfe. While the lineup is different than we thought, the frontrunner (DeBose) remains the same with Dunst (getting her first nod) as a possible upset pick.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Simmons in over Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Mr. Cooper has two movies contending for BP but no singling out to show for it. Smit-McPhee may be out in front but a Kotsur victory is feasible.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Worst Person is the surprise. I didn’t predict Richard though its inclusion was expected. They’re in over Ricardos and Parallel Mothers (which was admittedly a bit of an upset pick from me). This should be between Belfast and Pizza and it may represent the best opportunity for either to grab a statue.
Tidbit: since 2001, there was at least one screenplay contender where it served as its only nomination. Until today.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: Let’s not overcomplicate it when we don’t need to. Power is far and away the leader in this pack.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: This went as planned. There are three Disney products in the group, but the other two (Flee, Mitchells) are potential roadblocks to Encanto winning. Yet betting against Disney usually isn’t wise in this one and Encanto will probably take it.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: I’m gonna go ahead and say Lunana is the first Oscar contender with Yak in its title without checking (correct me if wrong). It surprisingly gets in (along with far less surprising The Hand of God) over A Hero and Playground. This one’s simple: anything other than Car would be a massive upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s that blasted 2 for 5 race! Ascension, Attica, and Fire are up over my selections of Faye Dayi, Procession, and The Rescue (its omission is stunning considering it was a contender to win).
Flee made history by becoming the first film to be nominated for Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and here. This race probably marks its best chance to win, but I wouldn’t sleep on Summer of Soul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Alley over Belfast. Get used to hearing this with the tech categories – Dune might be out in front. Dog could threaten.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano‘s sole nod comes here. I had House of Gucci instead. Dune can’t win all the techs and Cruella could take this.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Richard and Boom! over Belfast and Licorice Pizza. The Belfast omission is particularly notable as BP victors nearly always are nominated here. This could be more Dune gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with Suicide Squad over Coming 2 America. Despite its bad performance this morning, Gucci could win this. Or it might just go to Dune.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with The French Dispatch (which goose egged) over Mothers. As for the winner (get ready for it) – expect Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Maybe the surprise here shouldn’t be with “Somehow You Do” over “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. After all, this marks Diane Warren’s 13th nomination and sixth in the last seven years. She’s never won and won’t this time.
“Be Alive” from Beyonce or “Oruguitas” could get it, but “No Time to Die” from Billie Eilish could be the third Bond theme in a row to be celebrated.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Another category where I said French Dispatch and missed. Power gets in instead. While Dune is strong, I wouldn’t be startled to see this as the lone victory for Nightmare Alley.
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: You should hear Dune‘s name called.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Free Guy and Spidey over The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong. As for the winner: See Best Sound.
Here’s the overall nominations break down:
12 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
10 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
6 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Encanto, Flee, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
1 Nomination
Ascension, Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Four Good Days, Free Guy, The Hand of God, House of Gucci, Luca, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Starting very shortly, you can peruse my Case Of posts in which I write individualized posts for all the contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting races!
This is it! After months of speculation that began all the way back in a time known as August 2021, the guesswork grinds to a halt. It’s time for my FINAL Oscar predictions for the 94th Academy Awards. Nominations are out Tuesday (February 8th) with the big show airing March 27th.
I’ve penned thousands of words discussing the various feature film categories that will be revealed. The speculation ends today. For each race, I will give you my picks along with a runner-up and a second alternate. On Tuesday, I’ll have reaction up with my thoughts and, of course, how I did with the prognostications. I’m also giving you how I fared in the previous two years with each category.
So… pencils down. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
2019 Performance: 9/9
2020 Performance: 7/9
***There are 10 fixed nominees now***
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Director
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Second Alternate: Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Best Actor
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Best Supporting Actress
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Ann Dowd, Mass
Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: Passing
Best Animated Feature
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Runner-Up: Belle
Second Alternate: Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 2/5
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
A Hero
Playground
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: The Hand of God
Second Alternate: Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Faya Dayi
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up: The First Wave
Second Alternate: Ascension
Best Cinematography
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Costume Design
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Cyrano
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Film Editing
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Coming 2 America
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Original Score
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Spencer
Best Original Song
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Here I Am” from Respect
Second Alternate: “Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Belfast
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
2020 Performance: 5/5
***Sound races were split into Editing and Mixing prior to 2020
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Visual Effects
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Second Alternate: Ghostbusters: Afterlife
And this means my FINAL tally of total nominations for these films are as follows:
11 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Encanto, Flee, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley
1 Nomination
Faya Dayi, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Playground, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
Come Tuesday – visit the blog for reaction to the nominations!
The DGA and PGA nominations are out as of yesterday and it’s caused some reflection as I pen my penultimate predictions for the 2021 Oscars. With Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick… Boom! nabbing the final two BP spots at PGA (the other 8 were pretty obvious), I feel it necessary to include at least one of them. On the other hand, I’m reluctant to include both as PGA and the Academy’s BP selection rarely match. I’m leaning toward Boom! and it vaults back into the top ten. Yet I’m continuing to keep The Tragedy of Macbeth in the mix despite its lack of recent precursor love.
The DGA quintet and the Best Director nominees haven’t mirrored each other since 2009. So it’s a risk to go with DGA’s five. However, as of this moment, I’m going with it.
Another big change is in Best Actor as I’m including Javier Bardem in Ricardos for the first time (over Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up). There’s also a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) in for his inaugural appearance. That knocks out Jared Leto for Gucci.
The last big piece of the precursor puzzle arrives Thursday with BAFTA nods. On Friday (02/04), I will make my FINAL Oscar calls before nomination morning on Tuesday, February 8th.
Here’s how I have things standing as of now:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Drive My Car (PR: 13) (+1)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Lost Daughter (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 1) (E)
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 2) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mass (PR: 8) (E)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pig
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. CODA (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Passing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belle (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
My Sunny Maad
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Drive My Car (PR: 1) (E)
2. A Hero (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Your Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Playground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)
3. Procession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The First Wave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ascension (PR: 6) (E)
7. Faya Dayi (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Attica (PR: 7) (-1)
9. President (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In the Same Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-4)
7. King Richard (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Encanto (PR: 7) (-1)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spencer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eternals (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Widow (PR: 10) (E)
This all equates to the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast, The Power of the Dog
8 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Spencer
1 Nomination
C’Mon C’Mon, Coming 2 America, Drive My Car, The First Wave, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, Ray and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Tender Bar, The Worst Person in the World
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 