Julian Schnabel has Oscar history with Before Night Falls from 2000 (in which Javier Bardem was up for lead Actor), 2007’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (four noms including Director), and At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe contending for Actor). His latest is the period piece drama In the Hand of Dante, sporting an eclectic cast headlined by Oscar Isaac and including Gal Gadot, Gerard Butler, John Malkovich, Jason Momoa, Louis Cancelmi, Sophia Impacciatore, Franco Nero, and Al Pacino.
Stateside release is undetermined at press time. Despite the star power, distributors might not be lining up since this was generally considered one of the misfires at the Venice Film Festival. While some critics tipped their cap to its ambition, most say it wasn’t brimming with overall quality. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 35% and that should ensure Dante doesn’t fire up awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Warner Bros is banking on A Minecraft Movie receiving lots of play when it debuts this weekend. The adventure comedy is based on the hugely successful interactive game with Jared Hess directing. The cast includes Jason Momoa, Jack Black (who’s become a regular in video game based or game adjacent flicks), Emma Myers, Danielle Brooks, Sebastian Hansen, Rachel House, and Jennifer Coolidge.
Some reviews are pretty kind and others not so much. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 56% with 48 on Metacritic. Write-ups of the thumbs down variety aren’t complimentary of the CG. Visual Effects is the only awards category where this theoretically would materialize in awards races. It’s likely voters will have blocked Minecraft out completely. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.
The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.
As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.
Here’s how I have the chart playing out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 28-30)
In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.
Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.
The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.
The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.
Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.
A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million
For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:
Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.
While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.
1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.
The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.
It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.
The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.
The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M
With Christmas falling on a Monday this year, this is one of the most jam packed Yuletide box office seasons in memory. There’s a whole bunch of cinematic gifts that studios hope open well. On Friday (December 22), Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom looks to top the charts and reverse the misfortunes of the DCU in 2023. Joining Aquaman for the long weekend are Illumination Entertainment’s animated Migration, wrestling biopic The Iron Claw with Zac Efron, Indian Telugu-language action epic Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire, Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell’s rom com Anyone but You, and the nationwide expansion of Oscar hopeful Poor Things with Emma Stone. On Christmas Day, they are joined by The Color Purple (adapting the Broadway musical which adapted the 1985 Spielberg pic which adapted the acclaimed novel), Michael Mann’s Ferrari with Adam Driver, and the George Clooney directed Olympic period piece The Boys in the Boat. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all nine (yes, nine) right here:
Even Aquaman himself, Jason Momoa, recently stated in an interview that the future of the franchise is murky at best. Despite the 2018 original making over a billion bucks worldwide, expectations for the sequel are underwater after the DCU’s year that included flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. The worst case scenario is that this opens second to Wonka. On the bright side: Warner Bros gets the #1 slot either way. A low to mid 40s beginning from Friday to Monday is nothing to brag about, but that should get it to first place.
Wonka got off to a pretty sweet start at the top of its anticipated range (more on that below). Since I’m doing predictions from December 22-25, it may only decline from the high 30s to the mid to high 20s with bright weekends ahead (especially over New Year’s).
Therefore Wonka might be the family choice over Christmas and that could put Migration in third with a high teens or low 20s output. For Illumination, the silver lining should be small declines in subsequent frames.
I’m expecting a fourth place finish for The Iron Claw as wrestling fans could turn out to the tune of high single digits.
As for the three features out on Christmas Day, this obviously means I’m only doing a one-day projection. The Color Purple, with its well-known source material, should do best among that trio and I have its single day managing a fifth place showing.
Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire could over perform, but I have it in ninth. The newcomers should dominate the top ten as I have Anyone but You in sixth with the Poor Things expansion in seventh.
I do have holdovers The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Trolls Band Together finishing out the top ten.
That means my single day estimates for Ferrari ($2.1 million) and The Boys in the Boat ($1.1 million) leave them outside the top ten.
Truth be told, this is a highly unpredictable Christmas weekend with lots of moving parts. Here’s my best attempt at that top 10 and keep in mind that this is for Friday-Monday:
1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $42.8 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million
3. Migration
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
4. The Color Purple
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
5. The Iron Claw
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
6. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
7. Poor Things
Predicted Gross: $5 million
8. Salaar: Part One – Ceasefire
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
9. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
10. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (December 15-17)
Warner Bros might face choppy waters ahead with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but the Wonka opening went swimmingly. Timothee Chalamet’s take on the iconic chocolatier was treated to a $39 million start. That’s slightly ahead of my $36.4 million prediction as the family pic should have a robust road ahead this season.
It was the only newcomer this past weekend (which makes sense considering the onslaught ahead). The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes stayed put in second with $5.8 million, a smidge under my $6.6 million call. The prequel is up to $145 million after five weekends.
The Boy and the Heron, after its better than anticipated bow, dropped from 1st to 3rd with $5.5 million. That’s lower than my $7 million forecast as the ten-day take is $23 million.
Godzilla Minus One was fourth with $5 million (I said $5.7 million) for $34 million after three weeks.
Trolls Band Together rounded out the top five with $3.9 million compared to my $4.6 million projection. The threequel is approaching nine figures after five weeks with $88 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom hopes to rescue a troubling 2023 for the DCU when it opens December 22nd. Following up on the 2018 original, James Wan returns to direct with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Nicole Kidman costar.
With a reported budget of $215 million, the sequel needs solid domestic and overseas grosses to stay above water. That could be a challenge. The DCU has seen its share of flops this year including Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle.
The superhero’s first adventure five years ago ended up making an impressive $335 million stateside and $1.1 billion worldwide. It exceeded expectations, but Kingdom could fall under or just match them.
With Christmas on a Monday, I’m projecting a Friday to Monday number. Aquaman also came out on the big holiday weekend and Christmas was on a Tuesday. It took in $105 million in its first five days. This one might be fortunate to gross about half of that during its first four. I’m saying it won’t.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $42.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Heroes from the MCU and DCEU join the large Furious family when Fast X speeds into multiplexes on May 19th. The tenth official feature in the franchise (11th counting spin-off Hobbs & Shaw) arrives less than two years behind F9. Those newcomers to the fold are Captain Marvel Brie Larson and Aquaman Jason Momoa. Another fresh face to the series is director Louis Letterier, best known for The Transporter and Now You See Me. The many returnees include Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Chris “Ludacris” Bridges, Nathalie Emmanuel, Jordana Brewster, John Cena, Jason Statham, Sung Kang, Scott Eastwood, and Charlize Theron. Rita Moreno also joins the party.
Fast X is the penultimate pic with the (allegedly) final installment hitting in 2025. In 2015, Furious 7 had the high dollar peak when it premiered with $147 million and an eventual $353 domestic gross. Part of that franchise best performance was because it paid tribute to the late Paul Walker (who co-headlined with Diesel in four previous entries). In 2017, The Fate of the Furious started with $98 million and ended with $225 million. Predecessor F9 from 2021 managed $70 million out of the gate and $173 million overall.
One could argue that F9 was hindered two summers ago by the COVID pandemic. That could be proven if X is marked by a larger opening. My hunch is that it’ll kick off on pace with it and maybe even a little behind. That would give it the lowest series beginning (excluding the $60 million from Hobbs & Shaw) since 2006’s The Fast and the Furious: Toyko Drift.
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune arrives nearly three decades after David Lynch’s oft criticized version of Frank Herbert’s mid 60s sci-fi novel. It is source material that I’m frankly not familiar with so take that for what it’s worth. With the director of Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 at the controls, this is a technically masterful and consistently stunning looking experience. I also must admit that I didn’t get swept up in it no matter how amazing the desert landscapes appear (and do they ever).
Set 10,000 years in the future, the dense plot (as in often hard to follow) introduces us to the royal family of Caladan. Duke Leto (Oscar Isaac) is the leader of House Atreides, a land with a plentiful supply of water and bagpipes. His concubine is Lady Jessica (Rebecca Ferguson) who possesses the powers of Bene Gesserit, a sisterhood of mystical beings thought to bear children with God-like abilities. Their offspring is Paul (Timothee Chalamet). One problem: the Lady was supposed to have a girl who eventually delivers this story’s version of The One, but she skipped a step.
The Atreides are ordered by Empirical decree to take over Arrakis, a planet with hardly any water (I’m uncertain about bagpipes). However, it is the only land with spice and that substances serves many purposes. First, it gets you high and gives one visions that might play into the plot later. Most importantly, it fuels interstellar travel and is therefore an extraordinarily valuable commodity. It’s what Gollum would be droning on endlessly about if this were another epic adventure. House Harkonnen and their rotund ruler (Stellan Skarsgard), the current Arrakis deed holders, are not going to give up those property rights without a fight.
We sense where all this is heading due to Paul’s visions of Chani (Zendaya). She’s a native of Arrakis and their citizens called the Fremen have learned to use their planet’s sandy and almost unlivable terrain to their advantage. They will need to accept Paul as their captain and that development… will or won’t happen in part two. Yes, part one is a subtitle here. Like some Marvel products that preceded this, you may find yourself realizing that not a lot really happens in this origin tale by the time two and a half hours has lapsed.
I recognize this may sound like sacrilege to the book’s devotees. There is plenty to praise in this immensely gifted director’s adaptation. The cast is uniformly top notch from Chalamet on down (FYI – Zendaya is a part II kinda thing because her participation is limited). Ferguson is perhaps the standout in a sprawling ensemble that includes Josh Brolin (as a trusted Atreides warrior), Javier Bardem (as a Fremen warrior), and Charlotte Rampling as a Reverend Mother of the Bene Gesserit.
Dune worshipers forgive me. While I spent time marveling at the look and anticipating the unearthing of giant sandworms, I would put this behind Arrival and the Blade Runner follow-up without hesitation. Saying it feels like half a movie is easy criticism. That doesn’t mean it’s not true. It is tempting to recommend Dune based on spectacular work of composer Hans Zimmer and cinematographer Greig Fraser and the sound and visual effects artists. Yet I often found myself a bit shocked by my lack of awe in the story itself.
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