Tag: Jasmine Cephas Jones

Hamilton Box Office Prediction

Timed to coincide with the 10th anniversary of the Broadway phenomenon, Disney is at last releasing Hamilton on the big screen on September 5th. The biographical musical turned Lin-Manuel Miranda into a sensation when it premiered back in 2015 with the play nabbing 11 Tonys and a Pulitzer to boot.

A filmed version of the production with the original cast was slated for theatrical output in October 2021. COVID interrupted those plans and Mouse House execs opted to unveil it on Disney+ in July 2020. That original cast includes Miranda in the title role alongside Leslie Odom Jr., Daveed Diggs, Renée Elise Goldsberry, Phillipa Soo, Anthony Ramos, Jonathan Groff, and Jasmine Cephas Jones.

Obviously Hamilton has its legions of fans who have seen it on Broadway, at regional offshoots, and now on streaming for the past five years. That could certainly limit the excitement factor than an October ’21 release would have brought.

I could alter my estimate based on an eventual screen count. In 2021, I might have leaned toward a $20 million plus start. Now I think it’ll be fortunate to achieve half of that figure.

Hamilton opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my The Conjuring: Last Rites prediction, click here:

The Conjuring: Last Rites Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Origin

Nearly a decade after Selma was nominated for Best Picture and seven years after 13th was up for Documentary Feature, Ana DuVernay could be back in the awards conversation with Origin. Adapted from Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents, the 2020 nonfiction novel covering various racial issues, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (2021’s Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard) plays the book’s author Isabel Wilkerson. Costars include Jon Bernthal, Vera Farmiga, Audra McDonald, Niecy Nash-Betts, Nick Offerman, Jasmine Cephas Jones, Connie Nielsen, and Finn Wittrock.

At the Venice Film Festival, Origin received an appreciable reception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 85%. The Neon release (scheduled for sometime late this year) could still struggle to break into the Oscar consciousness. Some of the reviews (while generally positive) have enough reservations that this may not be much of a player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Blindspotting

Over the weekend, the dramedy Blindspotting opened in limited fashion to solid results and will expand this coming weekend. The pic debuted at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year to acclaim and it stands at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Blindspotting has received attention due its subject matter of racial issues and police brutality. Daveed Diggs (best known for Broadway’s Hamilton and a supporting role in last year’s hit Wonder) costars and co-wrote the screenplay with fellow star Rafael Casal. Carlos Lopez Estrada, who’s made numerous music videos, makes his directorial debut.

Blindspotting debuts in the middle of two other titles with similar themes and Oscar hopes. Sorry to Bother You is another candidate for attention with Spike Lee’s upcoming August release BlacKkKlansman on the horizon.

The best hope for Blindspotting, like Bother You, is in Original Screenplay but it could see itself having trouble breaking through.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…