Blogger’s Note (07/23): I am revising my estimate down from my original projection to a high teens debut.
Charlize Theron is in her second high-profile action flick of 2017 as Atomic Blonde hits theaters next weekend. The Oscar winner plays an MI6 agent teamed up with James McAvoy. The spy thriller costars John Goodman, Sofia Boutella, and Toby Jones and is directed by John Wick‘s David Leitch.
Blonde premiered this spring at the South by Southwest Festival to solid word-of-mouth and reviews have been mostly pleasing as it stands at 78% on Rotten Tomatoes. Theron appeared in this spring’s The Fate of the Furious and McAvoy is fresh off his blockbuster starring role in Split.
Shot for a meager $30 million, the pic should have no trouble being a profitable venture for its studio. It could reach close to its budget in the first weekend, though I’ll estimate it falls a bit under that in the mid 20s. That may mean a debut in third place behind The Emoji Movie and the second weekend of Dunkirk, depending on how that opens on Friday.
Atomic Blonde opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
X–Men: Apocalypse isn’t the only disappointing entry in the franchise, but it’s the only one directed by Bryan Singer that I’d classify as such. He directed the first two in 2000 and 2002 and got the series off to a satisfying start. Singer would return in 2014 with DaysofFuturePast to mostly pleasing results. Apocalypse may have you feeling blue about where this series is at. The villain is shrug worthy, some of the actors seem to not be giving it their all, and some of the CG effects are questionable at best. It also makes the error of providing dull backstory material for characters we didn’t really need to know backstory for.
When Singer left the franchise for the first time in 2002, Brett Ratner took over with TheLastStand in 2006 and was crucified for his efforts. In fact, when Singer returned in 2014, much of FuturePast erased LastStand. Maybe Apocalypse is a bit of revenge for Ratner, because it’s worse than his X-perience. Quite a bit worse actually. Stand doesn’t quite deserve its bad reputation and Apocalypse does.
The whole proceedings get off to a shaky start with a prologue set in Egypt where the first believed mutant Apocalypse (Oscar Isaac, in heavy and ugly makeup) is entombed by his enemies. Flash to centuries later and it’s 1983. When Apocalypse breaks out of his long slumber, he is hell bent on exacting revenge on the human race and showing off his many mutant abilities. He doesn’t comment on the awful 80s fashion, but it probably doesn’t make him any more fond of the people he seeks to destroy.
Fighting Apocalypse are many familiar X-Men, including Professor X (James McAvoy, still with hair for awhile) and Mystique (Jennifer Lawrence). Meanwhile, Magneto (Michael Fassbender) is laying low in Poland working in factory with lots of metal (oh the temptations!). He has a wife and daughter and a tragic family scene between them is actually rather well handled. While this trio of movie stars playing the most liked X characters get their screen time, Simon Kinberg’s screenplay also spends an unnecessary amount of ink on backstories for Cyclops, Nightcrawler, and Storm (younger versions of them all). These are unsought subplots that feel like filler and not much else. We also get a young Jean Grey (Sophie Turner) storyline that should be more interesting than it is.
All in all, there’s simply nothing very exciting about Apocalypse. Lawrence seems downright bored and her performance reflects that. Oscar Isaac is a tremendously talented performer who’s utterly wasted in a one-note villain role. The 60s vibe worked in X-Men: First Class and the 70s era feel of Future Past was pretty cool. Here, the 80s references add little.
There’s a sequence early on when Jean and friends leave ReturnoftheJedi disappointed and says everyone knows that the third one in a series is always the worst. Was screenwriter Simon Kinberg trying to warn us? Apocalypse isn’t terrible, but it’s the low point of this series so far.
Over the past two decades, audiences have witnessed the many personalities of director M. Night Shyamalan in his works. For instance, there’s his previous effort TheVisit where I wrote that he seemed to thumbing his nose at both critics and moviegoers based on their disappointment for some of his films. There’s the Shyamalan that was heavily influenced by Spielberg and Hitchcock that contributed to high marks like TheSixthSense and Signs. We have the comic book aficionado that made Unbreakable pretty special. And there’s whatever was going on his head while writing TheHappening and its killer trees and pro hot dog chatter.
With Split, Shyamalan seems in the mode of returning to his former box office glories by throwing in everything that made his blockbusters break through. Not all those traits work, but they’re present in nostalgia inducing manner. There’s the stilted dialogue and characters reacting to dangerous situations that seem off kilter. On the other hand, there are occasional moments of truly well crafted tension. Some of the actors miss the mark, but you wonder if it’s because that’s how Night directed them. Finally, there’s one performance that is pretty awesome to behold and, yes, a major surprise ending that is quite satisfying.
Welcome back to the mixed bag of a world that Shyamalan creates with his pen. Split opens with three teen girls leaving a birthday party. Two of them (Haley Lu Richardson, Jessica Sula) are your typical kids while Casey (Anya Taylor-Joy) is more of an outsider. Quickly into our screen time, they are kidnapped by Dennis (James McAvoy), who locks them in a small yet very clean room as he’s got serious OCD. Then, the trio finds out they were also nabbed by Patricia, a proper sounding English older lady. They were also taken by Hedwig, a shy nine year old boy. There are others as these personalities (23 of them) all live inside the head of McAvoy’s Kevin and Casey and her sort of friends have to figure out a way for one of them to let them out.
The action in Split is not confined to Kevin/Dennis/Patricia/Hedwig’s choice of holding rooms. On the outside, he is mostly Barry, an insecure fashion designer who visits his psychiatrist Dr. Fletcher (Betty Buckley). The doctor is an expert in these types of disorders who believes those suffering from it behold powers that are beyond human. And when Kevin warns of a 24th person in that head called The Beast, Dr. Fletcher’s theories may get a chance to be proven right or wrong.
McAvoy is given the chance to play in a universe that any actor would cherish and he’s impressive. There are scenes when he transitions from person to person that are quite enjoyable to watch. It really is his show, though Casey’s character is given a backstory via flashback that helps flesh out her perspective on everything.
There are times in Split that feel like vintage Shyamalan, but they come in infrequent spurts. My criticism here is simple, other than the dodgy dialogue we’ve come to anticipate even in his finest pictures. Split just really isn’t that scary or suspenseful while you’re watching it. Some of the best parts are when the director wants you to laugh… intentionally I think.
I certainly won’t spoil the ending, but I will say that it culminated this otherwise so-so experience with an unexpected surprise. In truth, I’ve thought more about what happened in the last 30 seconds than in the two previous hours and what it could mean in the future. That doesn’t excuse its faults, but at least Night wraps it up on that George Costanza high note.
The cinematic horror stylings of M. Night Shyamalan returns to theaters next weekend when Split debuts. His latest fright fest stars James McAvoy as a man with multiple personalities who kidnaps three teen girls. Anya Taylor-Joy and Betty Buckley are among the costars acting alongside all of McAvoy’s characters.
Split screened at a couple of film festivals during the fall and early word suggests a return to form for the auteur. The current Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 82%. Of course, Shyamalan’s filmography is a checkered one. He sprinted out of the gate with commercial and critical hits such as TheSixthSense, Unbreakable, and Signs. Disappointments from critics and audiences would come with LadyintheWater, TheHappening, and AfterEarth. His previous effort, 2015’s TheVisit, drew mixed reaction from reviewers and crowds yet it debuted with a better than anticipated $25 million weekend and $65M overall domestic take.
In fact, the smallest first weekend from the director since he’s become a celebrity in his own right remains LadyintheWater at $18 million. I incorrectly predicted TheVisit would open under that over one year ago and was proven wrong.
With solid reviews and effective TV spots and trailers, I’ll predict Split gets over that $18 million figure and just shy of $20M.
Split opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my xXx: ReturnofXanderCage prediction, click here:
The Mutants are back in the multiplex as X-Men: Apocalypse hits screens this Memorial Day weekend. Bryan Singer (who directed the first two well-regarded entries in the original trilogy and 2014’s Days of Future Past) is back behind the camera with franchise regulars James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Nicholas Hoult, and Rose Byrne returning, in addition to Oscar Isaac and Olivia Munn.
The pic is likely to rule the holiday weekend, but it is worth noting that competition is fiercer than two years ago when Future Past debuted on the same weekend. In 2014, the only other newcomer was the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore dud Blended. This time around, it’s Alice Through the Looking Glass, another high-profile sequel.
This is the 8th X-Men franchise flick in the 21st century (counting the two stand-alone Wolverine features) and the best opening so far is ironically 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand. Despite being generally regarded as the worst of the X series, it premiered to $102 million over that year’s Memorial Day Weekend from Friday to Sunday with $122 million for the four-day holiday frame. Days of Future Past was second with a $90 million Friday to Sunday and $110 million Friday to Monday.
Apocalypse would love to match Last Stand‘s debut or exceed it and there’s another common bond between them. This is the third movie in the current trilogy that began with 2011’s X-Men: First Class and like Stand, it’s receiving the weakest reviews. First Class earned an 87% Rotten Tomatoes score. Future Past improved slightly with 91%. Apocalypse currently sits at just 53%. The somewhat negative word of mouth and more significant competition could cause this to gross under what Past managed. However, I don’t think it’ll be much under.
I look for Apocalypse to post a low to mid-80s start for the traditional three-day with a gross just eclipsing the century mark for the holiday weekend.
X-Men: Apocalypse opening weekend prediction: $82.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $100.4 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Alice Through the Looking Glass prediction, click here:
Professor X and Harry Potter in a Frankenstein movie? Sounds like an intriguing proposition as Victor Frankenstein opens over the Thanksgiving holiday. Yet serious competition could keep this concoction (with its reported $90 million budget) from solid earnings.
James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe star in the gothic horror flick from director Paul McGuigan, known primarily for TV work on “Sherlock” and “Scandal”, among others. As mentioned, the biggest stumbling block could be adult competition in the form of The Hunger Games and critically acclaimed Creed.
Radcliffe has done this genre before to positive results as his 2012 pic The Woman in Black debuted to $20 million. However, this was right on the heels of his massive Potter success and it opened in a much less competitive frame. One thought is simply having “Frankenstein” in the title might help a bit, but it didn’t mean much for last year’s I, Frankenstein, which made just $8.6 million for its start.
With a lack of any real buzz going for it, I’ll predict Victor Frankenstein is mostly scared away by the box office fire generated by its competitors.
Victor Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Some apologies are more sincere than others and X-Men: Days of Future Past may just have the distinction of being 20th Century Fox and Bryan Singer’s most expensive apology ever. Why? Essentially, the seventh X-Men installment (counting the two Wolverine one-offs) renders a lot of 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand moot. That picture sent comic book fans into a frenzy with how sub par it was after Brett Ratner took over the directorial reigns from Singer, who made the high quality first two flicks.
In order for Singer to pull off his most miraculous trick since Kevin Spacey started walking straight almost 20 years ago, the franchise must incorporate time travel. That means we get to see the cast from the original trilogy and those who populated 2011’s X-Men: First Class, which triumphantly reinvigorated the series.
At the center of it all is Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine, who warps back and forth between 1973 and the near future. In the “sort of” present, giant robots called Sentinels are exterminating Earth’s mutant species. Charles Xavier/Professor X (Patrick Stewart) and Erik/Magneto (Ian McKellen) have actually formed a truce (maybe) to fight them. The solution involves having Wolverine go back 40 years to stop Mystique (Jennifer Lawrence) from killing Trask (Peter Dinklage), the Sentinel’s creator. Once Wolverine is among the glorious 70s fashion, he has to find younger Charles (James McAvoy) and Magneto (Michael Fassbender) and convince them to work together (no easy assignment) to alter history. Even President Richard Nixon is part of the action, though it’s never established if any of the future dwellers helped him out with that whole Watergate thing.
Along the way, we’re introduced to a new character that inspires the coolest sequence in the picture. That’s Quicksilver (Evan Peters), whose super fast abilities allow for a rather jaw dropping action scene. His presence in the upcoming sequels will be welcome I trust.
To set the future right, Charles can only truly help by giving up a nasty drug addiction that renders his telepathy useless, but allows him to walk. Only by embracing his paralyzed status can he enter the Cerebro chamber and do his Professor X thing. In essence, he’s sort of like the cinematic Bizarro equivalent of Lieutenant Dan.
Besides the company already mentioned, other X-Men favorites (and not so favorites) return. There’s Beast and Shadowcat and Iceman. Halle Berry returns as Storm and, just like in the original trilogy, she doesn’t add much to the proceedings.
For all the time travel gobbledygook, Future Past works best as a highly entertaining action pic spent with old friends. Singer proved himself a great choice for the X material (unlike with Superman) in 2000 and 2002 and that holds true today. We already know how effective Jackman and the fine actors playing young and old Professor X and Magneto are. And with Jennifer Lawrence having become one of the biggest stars in the world since First Class, her role as Mystique is certainly magnified, as would be expected.
Future Past continues the positive trend that the series has been on since First Class washed the bad taste of Last Stand away. Brett Ratner might deservedly feel like a scapegoat once the credits roll here, but you’ll feel pretty satisfied.
The Memorial Day weekend box office gets underway with X-Men: Days of Future Past, the seventh installment in the venerable Fox franchise. It’s probably safe to say that audience anticipation for this one is the highest it’s been in the series in a while. Why? That would be the combination of the casts from the original X-Men franchise alongside the group from 2011’s X-Men: First Class. That means Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen matching up against their younger counterparts James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender. It also means Hugh Jackman returning as Wolverine with Jennifer Lawrence as Mystique, as well as Halle Berry, Ellen Page, Nicholas Hault, and Shawn Ashmore.
Director Bryan Singer, who was behind the camera for the franchise’s critically acclaimed first two installments, is back in the mix, too. This has all led to some box office prognosticators forecasting a healthy $125 million four-day holiday opening for the pic. In my view, that seems just a bit high. However, it’s worth noting that I’ve been quite a bit under on both Neighbors and Godzilla‘s debuts so far this summer season. As far as Memorial Day weekends go, the champ is 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which earned $139.8 million. The silver prize goes to 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, which took in $126.9M. Last year’s holiday winner was Fast and Furious 6 with its $117M haul. To me, that seems like a more reasonable ballpark for what Future Past could open at.
In order for the film to break the all-time franchise record, it will need to outdo the $122.8M that X-Men: The Last Stand made over Memorial Day weekend in 2006. It’s certainly possible, but my estimate puts it a bit below that. Either way, this should certainly far outshine the $55.1 million made by First Class three summers ago and set up nicely for the next planned installment, X-Men: Apocalypse, slated for 2016.
X-Men: Days of Future Past four day opening weekend prediction: $114.3 million
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