After months and months of Oscar prognosticating, the nominations came out Monday. So what’s a movie blogger like me to do? Come up with a new feature on the blog!
We are going to call this “The Case of” and up until February 9th (airdate of the ceremony), I will present the case for and against wins for all nine Best Picture nominees and the five individuals in Best Director and all four acting races. Each post will conclude with a verdict on its viability for victory.
Yep, that’s 34 posts in the next few days. Perhaps I’m a glutton for punishment, but we start with the Picture nominees and Ford v Ferrari.
The Case for Ford v Ferrari
It’s a hit! Standing at $111 million currently at the domestic box office, the drama about the 1966 24 Hours of Le Mans race boasts a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score. Featuring the well regarded duo of Matt Damon and Christian Bale, it’s the rare adult skewing pic that’s hit the century mark. Director James Mangold has experience on Oscar night. He directed Angelina Jolie to a Supporting Actress win in 1999’s Girl, Interrupted and Reese Witherspoon to a lead Actress trophy for 2005’s Walk the Line. In 2017, his Logan got an Adapted Screenplay nod.
The Case Against Ford v Ferrari
It’s significant! Of the nine Pictures up, Ford has the least amount of total nominations (4). The other eight have six mentions and up. Ford‘s three other nods are all in tech categories (Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing). No acting, directing, or writing recognition is not a positive sign your movie is going to win Best Picture. In fact, it’s unprecedented.
The Verdict
Of the nine films contending, I would rank Ford v Ferrari in ninth position to win. Many predictors didn’t even have it getting in. Bright side: it does stand legit shots in the three other races where it’s named. So it’s in the mix for technical kudos, but certainly not in the big race.
The Directors Guild of America (DGA) released their list of five nominated filmmakers today and this is a very strong indicator of the people who will be nominated for the Oscar on Monday. Well, 80% of them that is.
Here are your DGA nominees:
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
The first four names on that list were widely expected as the pictures of Joon-Ho, Mendes, Scorsese, and Tarantino are the four entries that have the best shot at winning Best Picture. Any of their exclusions would have been a shocker.
So the real question was the fifth spot and Waititi’s inclusion is a pretty big surprise. The general consensus is that the slot would go to one of the following three directors: Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), or Todd Phillips (Joker). That said, no one in that trio should feel their Oscar hopes are dashed.
That’s because the DGA almost always matches the Academy’s director picks on a 4/5 scale. This was the case from 2013-2017. Last year, the number was 3. However, for reasons mentioned above, four seems to be the floor in 2019.
One could make the case that today’s nod for Waititi makes him an outsider pick for Oscar. 2009 was the last year the DGA and the Academy matched five for five. It also happened in 2005. Those are the only two years it occurred in the 21st century.
Waititi’s consolation is real as Jojo should get a Best Picture nod and he’s almost certain to pick up another nomination for his screenplay. Yet when it comes to Oscar’s final slot – I still believe Baumbach, Gerwig, or Phillips to be the strongest contenders.
There are years when the Golden Globes don’t seem to have much of an impact on my Oscar predictions. That could still hold true at the end of the day, but last night’s ceremony did so and that especially applies to the Best Actor derby and my numeric rankings in general with other top races. Let us count the ways…
The surprising wins for 1917 as Best Drama and Sam Mendes as its director is a real story. The timing could not be more perfect as the World War I action drama opens wide this weekend. In Picture, it rises from 5th to 4th. For Mendes, he goes from 4th to 3rd and that’s at the expense of Martin Scorsese.
Joaquin Phoenix hits the #1 slot in the ultra competitive Best Actor competition over Adam Driver, who’s been first for many weeks. Perhaps more significantly, Taron Egerton’s victory over Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes places in my predicted five for the first time (he goes from 10th to 5th!). I’ve also put Antonio Banderas back in and that means Robert De Niro and Jonathan Pryce are on the outside looking in.
In Original Screenplay, Quentin Tarantino vaults to #1 over Noah Baumbach.
And an important programming note… this is the last time you will see my weekly predictions for 2019 in this manner. With nominations out a week from today, I will have a FINAL predictions post up this weekend (likely Friday or perhaps Saturday). As of this moment, here’s how I have it all shaking out!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Parasite (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Farewell (PR: 12)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
13. Knives Out (PR: 14)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 15)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 9)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell (PR: 7)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 8)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
10. Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Dolemite Is My Name
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Corpus Christi (PR: 6)
5. Atlantics (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beanpole (PR: 7)
7. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
8. The Painted Bird (PR: 5)
9. Honeyland (PR: 8)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Funan (PR: 9)
7. Klaus (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
9. Abominable (PR: 7)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. For Sama (PR: 3)
3. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Midnight Family (PR: 9)
8. Maiden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
10. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
7. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
8. Parasite (PR: 5)
9. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marriage Story (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Judy (PR: 6)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Apollo 11
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 7)
7. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 10)
9. Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 7)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
8. “Letter to My Godfather” from The Black Godfather (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Speechless” from Aladdin
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 7)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Rocketman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
7. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 8)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Corpus Christi, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
There are two weeks to go before Oscar nominations come out and it’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions. There’s not much in the way of major movement in the top races, but the numbers have shifted in some cases. Let’s break it down:
In Picture, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vaults to #1 in what looks like a three-way competition between it, The Irishman, and Parasite.
Bong-Joon Ho rises to first in Director over Tarantino and Scorsese.
There is a change in Actor as Jonathan Pryce is back in over Antonio Banderas. Pain and Glory takes another hit in Original Screenplay as I’ve taken it out and put Knives Out back in.
Check in later this week for my predictions on winners for the Golden Globes, which airs this Sunday. The plan is to have Oscar predictions next Monday and then a post up on Saturday (January 11) with final predictions on the races.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
14. Knives Out (PR: 13)
15. Uncut Gems (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)
7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 10)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 8)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 7)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 6)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: Not Rankled)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
7. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
7. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 7)
10. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 4)
5. The Painted Bird (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corpus Christi (PR: 7)
7. Beanpole (PR: 5)
8. Honeyland (PR: 8)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 7)
9. Funan (PR: 10)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. For Sama (PR: 4)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
8. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
9. Midnight Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maiden
Aquarela
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Joker (PR: 3)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 7)
9. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judy (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. 1917 (PR: 4)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Apollo 11 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 3)
3. Judy (PR: 2)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
7. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 10)
8. Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
10. 1917 (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 5)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
10. Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Us
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
4. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 5)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
7. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 9)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 10)
10. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Rocketman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
8. Joker (PR: 6)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. The Irishman (PR: 1)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 10)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
And that equates to these films getting the following numbers of nods:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women, Parasite
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Painted Bird, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
It’s been another action packed week on the Oscar predicting front! Since last Monday, the SAG Award nominations came out and today – we saw numerous categories reveal their shortlists. This is when races are whittled down to 10 or 15 possible nominees and it applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. As always, there were surprises. These include “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats unlisted from Song, The Irishman absent from Makeup and Hairstyling, and Ad Astra and The Aeronauts left out for Visual Effects. You’ll notice that in these categories – there’s more dropouts than normal and that’s why.
As for the top line races, we have changes:
I am finally estimating that nine movies will be nominated for Best Picture instead of ten and that puts The Two Popes on the outside looking in.
The bad news for Popes continues as it’s Leonardo Dicaprio in and Jonathan Pryce out. I still have Robert De Niro clinging to the five spot, despite missing the Globes and SAG. We shall see if he remains in the fold as time goes on.
In Actress, it’s Cynthia Erivo in and Awkwafina out. I’ve got Lupita Nyong’o in the sixth position after a strong week of precursor love. She’s knocking right on the door.
Scarlett Johansson is back in for Supporting Actress to the detriment of Annette Bening. Like the SAG Awards, that means I’m projecting a double nomination for ScarJo. That would mark her first and second nominations.
In Original Screenplay, I’ve got Pain and Glory back in over Knives Out.
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 8)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 6)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
7. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taylor Russell, Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 7)
7. Hustlers (PR: 6)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Knives Out (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. 1917 (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 6)
5. Beanpole (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained (PR: 10)
7. Corpus Christi (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Painted Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Monos
Invisible Life
A White, White Day
And Then We Danced
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 7)
7. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
8. Klaus (PR: 6)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
4. For Sama (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
9. Maiden (PR: 10)
10. Aquarela (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sea of Shadows
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 3)
4. The Irishman (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
7. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Two Popes
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Cats (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
9. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Two Popes
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 6)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Us (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 8)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Irishman (PR: 9)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. John Wick – Chapter 3: Parabellum (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
8. Captain Marvel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
Aladdin
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Joker
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
It’s been two weeks since I’ve prognosticated Oscar picks on the blog and a lot has happened since then. The precursors are coming out in full force with the Golden Globe nominations out this morning and numerous critics bestowing their awards or nods.
The Globes potentially provided a needed boost to The Two Popes and displayed a better than anticipated showing for Joker.
So how have my estimates changed in the last 14 days? There’s been one change in all major categories with the exception of Director and Adapted Screenplay. They are:
In Best Picture, I’ve put Ford v Ferrari back in and taken out Bombshell. The official review embargo for Bombshell lapsed and the current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. It could still sneak in, but with that rating and a lack of precursor love, it’s certainly fallen.
My ongoing struggle with picking Best Actor candidates continues. Whittling it down to five is a challenge and that’s an understatement. As has been discussed previously, I truly believe all 10 listed performers could get in. For that matter, so could Paul Walter Hauser for Richard Jewell if that film does better with Academy voters than expected. This is the first time I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in with Antonio Banderas (recipient of some precursors) getting in. Look for this saga to continue until nominations morning.
In Best Actress, I’ve got Awkwafina in over Cynthia Erivo. This is basically a coin flip for the five spot and there’s also Lupita Nyong’o (another precursor favorite) as a spoiler.
Joe Pesci has done quite well in the precursors. He’s in over Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor.
Annette Bening is back in the fold over Zhao Shuzhen in Supporting Actress.
I’m putting Knives Out in Original Screenplay and that takes out Pain and Glory.
You can read the rest of the happenings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 12)
12. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Jewell (PR: 13)
15. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 9)
9. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 4)
7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
8. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taylor Russell, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hustlers (PR: 7)
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 6)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 4)
5. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 7)
7. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
8. Beanpole (PR: 8)
9. And Then We Danced (PR: 5)
10. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 6)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
4. For Sama (PR: 5)
5. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: 8)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maiden (PR: 3)
Dropped Out:
The Kingmaker
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Parasite (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Aladdin (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bomshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Waves (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
7. Cats (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. The Irishman (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Invisible Life, Knives Out, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, The Report, Sea of Shadows, Toy Story 4
One day ahead of the more highly publicized Golden Globe nominations, this Sunday saw the unveiling of the nods for the Critics Choice Movie Awards. And in looking over their selections in recent history, they serve as quite a harbinger for the choices that Oscar voters might make.
After a strong showing in early precursors, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman led the way with 14 nominations. This is followed by 12 nods for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 9 for Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, 8 for 1917 from Sam Mendes and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, and 7 for Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit, Joker from Todd Phillips and Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite.
This particular branch of voters utilizes an unpredictable scale for numbers of nominees in each category. For Best Picture, it’s always ten. Yet it fluctuates when it comes to director, the acting and screenplay races, and so forth.
Today I’ll break down the major categories and discuss each one and what it could mean come Oscar time. The ceremony airs on the CW this January 12th.
Best Picture
Nominees: 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Uncut Gems
Reaction here is that the precursor love continues for Uncut Gems from Ben and Josh Safdie. This is probably the least expected feature to make the cut and the Adam Sandler led crime drama appears to be peaking at the right time. While this certainly doesn’t guarantee an Oscar nod, it’s now undoubtedly part of the conversation.
Some notable titles to miss the list: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Bombshell, The Farewell, Richard Jewell, and The Two Popes. It will be interesting tomorrow to see if the Globes finds room for Popes as part of its nominations, as it seems to be fading fast. It doesn’t help that Netflix could be primarily concerned with Irishman and Marriage Story.
Over the last five years, there’s been four of them when eight of the Critics Choice list nabbed Best Picture attention at the Oscars. In 2017, it was nine of them. In other words, pay attention to this list.
Best Director
Nominees: Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Ben and Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
And another notch in the Uncut Gems arsenal. Most recent years have seen six nominees, but there’s seven nominees in 2019. In 2016, five of the Choice directors made up the Oscar list. In 2014 and 2015, it was three and for the past two years it’s been four.
Looking over this list, it’s very feasible that there’s a five match. Who could sneak in that’s not on here? One name that comes to mind is James Mangold for Ford v Ferrari.
Best Actor
Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
In a category that typically has six nominees, it should be no shocker that there’s seven this time around as Best Actor is packed. From 2015-2018, we have seen 5 nominees for two of the years (2015, 2018) make the Academy derby and two with 4 (2016, 2017). 2014 was a bit of an outlier with three.
As has been discussed on this blog, I believe there are 11 legitimate performers vying for 5 slots at the Oscars. The four that didn’t make the cut here are Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). Here’s yet another example of Popes falling short.
Today’s announcements, in particular, could serve as a boost for Murphy and Sandler.
There’s a serious correlation between these nominees and Oscar. In four of the past five years, we’ve seen five of the women getting Academy love. In 2016, it was four. That seems destined to repeat itself here as the only potential outlier in my mind is Alfre Woodard in Clemency. I would bank on five of these seven nominees being the Oscar list.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
These nominees are further proof of an Irishman double nod for Pacino and Pesci coming our way. We’ve seen five for five matchups in two of the past five years with this race. This also makes me think Hopkins has a much better chance for Popes attention than his lead costar Pryce.
If there’s one name not here that could factor into the Oscar mix – Shia LaBeouf in Honey Boy. All in all, no big surprises here.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)
This is indeed what I’d call the top 6 for Oscar viability. However, I wouldn’t sleep on Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell (a film these voters totally ignored). In the past half decade, we’ve never seen less than four of the nominees here getting Academy nods.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Farewell, Knives Out, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
The noticeable item here is the inclusion of Knives Out. All the rest were basically foregone conclusions. It gets in instead of Bombshell, 1917, Pain and Glory, or Ford v Ferrari. Could Oscar follow suit? Definitely possible as the last two years have seen 5 for 5 matches.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes
We haven’t seen a total match with the Academy from 2014 to present. I suspect that will change this time around as I believe 5 of these 6 contenders will make the Oscar cut. What gets left out? Beautiful Day, Joker, and Popes are the likely contenders.
My precursor posts will roll along in rapid succession as my take on the Los Angeles critics is up next…
On Monday, one of the most significant Oscar precursors announces their nominations. Yes, we have the Golden Globe nods coming out with the SAG Awards following on Wednesday (except my predictions on them early this week).
While I’ve been updating my Oscar projections on a near weekly basis, I don’t do the same with the Globes. This will serve as my first and last batch of predictions for the ceremony airing in January with Ricky Gervais hosting.
As you’re likely aware, this show does it a bit different than the Oscars by splitting their film and lead actor categories into separate Drama and Musical/Comedy categories. For each race, I’m making my five predicted features or performers that I believe will make the cut as well as a first and second alternate.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Little Women
Marriage Story
1st Alternate – Joker
2nd Alternate – The Two Popes
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Cats
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
1st Alternate – Dolemite Is My Name
2nd Alternate – Hustlers
Best Director
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1st Alternate – Greta Gerwig, Little Women
2nd Alternate – James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress – Drama
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
1st Alternate – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
2nd Alternate – Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Best Actor – Drama
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
1st Alternate – Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
2nd Alternate – Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Constance Wu, Hustlers
1st Alternate – Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette
1st Alternate – Shia LaBeouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon
2nd Alternate – Himesh Patel, Yesterday
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
1st Alternate – Annette Bening, The Report
2nd Alternate – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1st Alternate – Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
2nd Alternate – Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
1st Alternate – The Two Popes
2nd Alternate – Knives Out
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
1st Alternate – Weathering with You
2nd Alternate – Abominable
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Atlantics
The Farewell
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1st Alternate – Les Miserables
2nd Alternate – Monos
Best Original Score
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1st Alternate – The Aeronauts
2nd Alternate – Us
Best Original Song
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
“Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
“Spirit” from The Lion King
1st Alternate – “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
2nd Alternate – “Stand Up” from Harriet
And that equates to the following features nabbing these numbers when it comes to nominations:
7 Nominations
Marriage Story
6 Nominations
The Irishman
5 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4 Nominations
Jojo Rabbit, Little Women
3 Nominations
1917, Knives Out, Parasite, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Bombshell, Cats, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Frozen II, Hustlers, Joker, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Atlantics, Booksmart, Dolemite Is My Name, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Judy, Late Night, The Lion King, Missing Link, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4
Rest assured that I will have a post up with reaction to the Monday announcements with a recap on how I did! Until then…
Two key screenings took place over the week with significant Oscar implications and there’s some movement in major categories to discuss:
1917, the World War I epic from Sam Mendes, finally availed itself to critics and the feedback is extremely positive. While I’d had it projected for Picture and Director for some time, its numbers (3 and 2 respectively) are the highest yet.
Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell screened at AFI Fest. Some reviews indicate it’s a contender in Picture, but I’m not quite there. It does vault back in the 15 possibilities at 13 and both Paul Walter Hauser in Actor and Kathy Bates in Supporting Actress are now in the mix, but not projected in the top five.
Bombshell is back in my ten projected Picture nominees over Ford v Ferrari.
Zhao Shuzhen finally makes the cut in Supporting Actress, displacing Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
Tom Hanks slides to fifth in Supporting Actor after the so-so box office performance of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I suspect he could fall out with Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) hot on his heels.
While my five Best Actor contenders remain the same, this is the most packed field in ages. I could legitimately see any of my ten listed thespians getting in, as well as Christian Bale (who falls to 11th).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Bombshell (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 9)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
10. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knives Out (PR: 7)
9. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 9)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 8)
5. And Then We Danced (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
7. Atlantics (PR: 7)
8. Beanpole (PR: 5)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Missing Link (PR: 7)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. Maiden (PR: 6)
4. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
5. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 3)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
8. Honeyland (PR: 4)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: 8)
10. The Kingmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Edge of Democracy
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 9)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Judy (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jojo Rabbit
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
5. Us (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
7. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
8. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Show Yourself” from Frozen II
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 10)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
10. Aladdin (PR: 9)
And this all equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, Aladdin, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Us, Weathering with You
The pleasing box office performance of Ford v Ferrari assists in putting it back in my top ten predicted Best Picture guesses. It does so by displacing Bombshell, which I still certainly consider to be a very viable candidate.
While my five Best Actor estimates remains the same, this is the most competitive field in ages and that’s without official advance word on Paul Walter Hauser in Richard Jewell (which screens this week). I truly believe all ten listed thespians could get in.
I’m starting to feel that the never nominated Scarlett Johansson is going to a double nominee. I’ve vaulted her into the top 5 for Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, in addition to her already likely nod in lead for Marriage Story. In Supporting, she gets in over Annette Bening in The Report.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Little Women (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bombshell (PR: 9)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Rocketman (PR: 14)
15. Waves (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhou Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
9. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)
10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Hustlers (PR: 10)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Booksmart (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Waves (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. And Then We Danced (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Atlantics (PR: 4)
8. Monos (PR: 6)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 6)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Klaus (PR: 9)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 8)
10. Funan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spies in Disguise
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 3)
4. Honeyland (PR: 7)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maiden (PR: 4)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
8. Sea of Shadows (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. Parasite (PR: 9)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 5)
3. Downton Abbey (PR: 2)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judy (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Joker
Dumbo
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Bombshell (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Endgame
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
The Two Popes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Cats (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
8. “Show Yourself” from Frozen II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 8)
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Irishman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 9)
9. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 1917 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dumbo
And that equates to the following features obtaining these numbers come nomination time:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
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