Awards prospects for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are no longer a complete unknown now that it has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 24th domestic bow. Chronicling the making of his 1982 album Nebraska during a tumultuous personal period, Jeremy Allen White headlines as the legendary Boss in the Scott Cooper directed effort. Jeremy Strong (as longtime manager Jon Landau), Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron, and David Krumholtz costar.
As reviews trickle in from Colorado, some common themes have emerged. Critics are praising its focus on a particular time in Springsteen’s legendary career and avoiding musical biopic cliches. Word-of-mouth indicates this could fare well with Academy voters like last year’s Bob Dylan centered A Complete Unknown. That includes viability in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and down-the-line races like Casting, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Sound. Cooper probably is a long shot for his direction though it is worth noting that James Mangold was a bit of a surprise nominee for Unknown.
As for the performances, White (a two-time Emmy winner for The Bear) seems poised for his first Oscar recognition. In the supporting derbies, it sounds like Strong is the better bet over Graham. Prognosticators have been wondering who would emerge between the two. If the Succession thespian makes the Supporting Actor quintet, it would be his second nom in a row after last year’s The Apprentice. While Odessa Young is being singled out in some write-ups, I doubt she materializes in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
It is just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Director. This is the one major race of these first six where I named none of the eventual nominees for 97th ceremony back in April of 2024. That means the winner Sean Baker (Anora) and the other quartet of contenders (Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez, Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, James Mangold for A Complete Unknown) had yet to reach my radar screen. Two years ago, I already had eventual recipient Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) in my high five during the inaugural guesstimate.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system much like Anora, Pérez, The Substance, and The Brutalist last time around.
This premiere post projects a return to competition for previous honoree Chloe Zhao with heavy hitters like Paul Thomas Anderson and Guillermo del Toro on the outside looking in.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…
After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…
After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…
After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…
These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!
We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.
Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.
PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.
PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA
Runner-Up: A Real Pain
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Nickel Boys
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.
PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.
PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW
Runner-Up: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.
PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND
Runner-Up: Porcelain War
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Academy voters should ride with Wicked.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.
PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE
Runner-Up: Anora
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
All signs point to The Substance.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Wicked
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
Runner-Up: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.
PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: The Brutalist
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
This should be Dune‘s other victory.
PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO
Runner-Up: Better Man
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…
4 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our final entry in Best Director and that’s James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. If you missed my posts covering the other nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Directing Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for James Mangold:
After a long career with varied projects like Cop Land, Girl Interrupted, Walk the Line, Logan, Ford v Ferrari, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic is his first entry into Best Director. He made the quintet at DGA. The Academy could honor him for the overall body of work.
The Case Against James Mangold:
It hasn’t played out that way in precursors as Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) have been your winners. Mangold additionally didn’t make the cut at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, or Critics Choice.
The Verdict:
Mangold’s first nod will be just that and not a victory.
My Case Of posts have concluded just five days before the 97th Academy Awards. My final predictions for the ceremony will be posted tomorrow…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our third entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Edward Norton in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my posts covering Yura Borisov (Anora) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
Best Supporting Actor (1996, Primal Fear) – lost to Cuba Gooding Jr. (Jerry Maguire)
Best Actor (1998, American History X) – lost to Roberto Benigni (Life is Beautiful)
Best Supporting Actor (2014, Birdman) – lost to J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
The Case for Edward Norton:
As folk singer Pete Seeger, Norton returns to the Oscar lineup a decade after his third nomination. For his fourth try, he achieved a quartet of noms in key precursors the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. He’s 0 for 3 thus far and Academy voters might feel he’s overdue for the statue.
The Cast Against Edward Norton:
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) has swept so far with only SAG left. Timothée Chalamet might have a better shot if Unknown manages an acting victory.
The Verdict:
Unless he is a surprise SAG victor this Sunday, Supporting Actor seems to be going Culkin’s way. After March 2nd, the Norton count should be 0 for 4.
My Case Of posts will continue our next hopeful in Director and that’s Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my post on Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
Best Actor (2017, Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
The Case for Timothée Chalamet:
He’s essentially Hollywood’s IT leading man of the moment coming off Wonka, Dune: Part Two, and this biopic where he embodies Bob Dylan. Plenty of critics have hailed it as career best work and he’s landed precursor nods everywhere that matter (Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG). Chalamet would make Oscar history as the youngest victor in this competition.
The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has already taken the Globe and Critics Choice as he seeks his second gold statue. Side note – he’s the current record holder for youngest Best Actor recipient for The Pianist (2002). Voters might figure Chalamet will have other opportunities as his career progresses.
The Verdict:
Chalamet is rightly seen as the runner-up. If he can snag SAG next weekend, this becomes a race. If it goes to Brody, the sweep is likely on.
My Case Of posts will continue with our next Supporting Actress contender and that’s Ariana Grande in Wicked…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
None
The Case for Monica Barbaro:
As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.
The Case Against Monica Barbaro:
Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.
The Verdict:
Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…
In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.
Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.
Feature Film
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.
PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora
Documentaries
Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)
There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.
PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War
Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters
FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM
Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)
All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and The Brutalist for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third hopeful is A Complete Unknown.
The Case for A Complete Unknown:
If you want to bet on the picture with some late breaking momentum, the Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold might be your horse. Released in December, Unknown is doing healthy business at the box office and scored 8 total noms that include Director, Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. The journey to the better than expected nomination count began with over performances at the precursors. It really hasn’t missed anywhere with a Best Ensemble mention at SAG and BP noms at the Golden Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and a DGA slot for Mangold.
The Case Against A Complete Unknown:
It didn’t win the Golden Globe in Drama (that went to The Brutalist). The 80% RT score and 71 Metacritic are below most of its competitors. There’s even a chance that it goes 0 for 8 on Oscar night. I wouldn’t say it is the favorite in any category.
The Verdict:
I don’t think it’s impossible for this to take the top prize, but I would need to see some victories at upcoming precursors such as Critics Choice or SAG.
Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.
As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.
Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 9/10
The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
How I Did: 4/5
DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.
BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
How I Did: 5/5
The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/5
Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/5
Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Anora is expected to shine.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 5/5
This is where Conclave is expected to shine.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 3/5
After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
How I Did: 3/5
Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
How I Did: 3/5
My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
How I Did: 3/5
I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This is where The Substance could materialize.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
How I Did: 3/5
“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/5
This could be a Wicked win.
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?
And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.
Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:
13 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Wicked
8 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Conclave
6 Nominations
Anora
5 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, The Substance
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 