Tag: James L. Brooks

December 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping for merry pre-Christmas tidings with Avatar: Fire and Ash in position to rule the charts. There’s other potential new gifts for multiplexes in the form of psychological thriller The Housemaid and the double animated offerings of biblical tale David and fourquel The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. You can locate my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Prediction
The Housemaid Box Office Prediction
David Box Office Prediction
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants Box Office Prediction

The first two Avatar features from newly minted billionaire James Cameron each grossed $2B+ worldwide. Fire looks to keep up pace. I have it under $100 million for its first stateside weekend but with about $36million less than 2022 predecessor The Way of Water.

Placement for slots 2-4 could be unpredictable. Based on a buzzy bestseller, The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried has breakout potential and should serve as shrewd counter programming from blue creatures and family fare. I have it in second.

Faith-based crowds could cause David to top SpongeBob. I have the former in the low 20s with the latter in mid to higher teens. Both look to debut decently and hold impressively over Christmas. Current champ Zootopia 2 should follow in an animated bottom heavy top 5.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $98 million

2. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

3. David

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

5. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

Box Office Results (December 12-14)

Zootopia 2 returned to rule the charts with $25.8 million in its third frame, a bit ahead of my $23.6 million call. The Disney sequel sits at $258 million domestically and has already topped $1 billion globally.

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $19.3 million. The 70% drop was, as expected, steep. However, it didn’t fall as far as my $15.7 million projection suggested. The horror sequel is near nine digits at $95 million.

Wicked: For Good was third with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.2 million prediction and it has conjured up $312 million in four weeks.

Hindi-language action pic Dhurandhar was #4 and I did not have it in the top 5. With $3.4 million, it had the highest per-screen-average of all features (nearly $10k per venue) and brought its earnings to $7.7 million after two weeks.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with only a 32% decline. With $2.3 million in its fifth weekend, the overall gross is $59 million. I also didn’t have it in the leading quintet.

That’s because I slightly overestimated Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution at $2.4 million and it made $2 million in sixth. The two-week take is $14 million.

Finally, poorly reviewed dramedy Ella McCay from veteran filmmaker James L. Brooks languished in seventh with $2 million. I was slightly a little more generous at $2.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Ella McCay

When your movie is opening December 12th and the review embargo lifts December 10th, consider that a sign that the studio (20th Century in this instance) doesn’t consider it an awards contender. Such is the case with Ella McCay which marks the first feature from James L. Brooks in 15 years. The 2008 set political dramedy stars Emma Mackey in the title role with a supporting cast including Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Lowden, Kumail Nanjiani, Ayo Edebiri, Julie Kavner, Spike Fearn, Rebecca Hall, Albert Brooks, and Woody Harrelson.

Brooks is, of course, a legendary figure in TV and motion pictures. In addition to co-creating The Mary Tyler Moore Show, Taxi, and The Simpsons, his cinematic debut as writer/director Terms of Endearment is 1983’s Best Picture winner. Subsequent efforts Broadcast News (1988) and As Good As It Gets (1997) also scored BP mentions and numerous other nods.

The auteur’s output in the 21st century has been limited to Spanglish (2004) and How Do You Know (2010), neither of which were Oscar players. McKay is saddled with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 29% and 41 on Metacritic. That’s why it’s no surprise it didn’t show up anywhere in the Critics Choice or Golden Globe ballots and the same will hold true with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

December 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Romantic dramedy Ella McKay hopes to find some viewers in a quiet weekend before potential holiday heavy hitters like Avatar: Fire and Ash, David, and The Housemaid arrive. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Ella here:

Ella McCay Box Office Prediction

Like December’s first frame, the battle for #1 should be between current champ Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Zootopia 2. I was wrong about what would come out on top to start off the month (more on that below). However, Freddy’s could experience a similar mid to high 70s percentage decline that its predecessor did in 2023. Zootopia‘s should be less than 50% which should give it the win. Take that for it’s worth because I thought Freddy’s would open in second.

Wicked: For Good should stay in third with McKay in lower single digits for a fourth place showing or lower. It’s even possible that the 25th anniversary screenings of How the Grinch Stole Christmas or 45th anniversary showing of The Shining could make the top 5.

I’ll leave them out and here’s how I envision the chart shaking out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

2. Five Night at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

4. Ella McCay

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

5. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (December 5-7)

I incorrectly thought Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 would suffer a far steeper drop-off from its predecessor which premiered at $80 million. While its $64 million haul was certainly less, it was far ahead of my $36.5 million estimate and ahead of expectations. Don’t be surprised if a third reservation is made by the studio.

That left Zootopia 2 in second place with $43.4 million, in line with my $43.1 million call. The Disney sequel has amassed $220 million since its Thanksgiving holiday start.

Wicked: For Good tumbled 72% to third in its third outing with $17.3 million. I was more generous at $23.2 million. This sequel is nearing $300 million at $297 million.

Anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Exeuction kept a hot streak going for the genre with $10 million, surpassing my $6.4 million prediction. Per above, expect a large drop in its sophomore play.

Finally, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with $3.4 million (I said $3.6 million) for $55 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Ella McCay Box Office Prediction

After a 15 year hiatus from the big screen, James L. Brooks is back in the director’s chair when Ella McCay debuts December 12th. The politically themed dramedy features Emma Mackey in the title role with a supporting cast including Jamie Lee Curtis, Jack Lowden, Kumail Nanjiani, Ayo Edebiri, Julie Kavner, Rebecca Hall, Albert Brooks, and Woody Harrelson.

In the 1980s and 90s, Brooks was a cinematic force whose efforts like Terms of Endearment, Broadcast News, and As Good As It Gets were box office smashes and Best Picture nominees (or winner in the case of Terms). The 85-year-old auteur’s last production was 2010’s rom com How Do You Know. It flopped despite the star power of Reese Witherspoon, Owen Wilson, Paul Rudd, and Jack Nicholson in what appears to be his final role.

McCay doesn’t even have megawatt casting to bring in audiences. The fact that it skipped the festival circuit tells you 20th Century Studios knew this wasn’t an awards player unlike the filmmaker’s classics. This is also a genre that goes to streaming nowadays more often than not. Add all that up and this should languish in the lower single digits.

Ella McCay opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million