Three Christmas offerings look to brighten up the box office as 2025 draws to a close. We have meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black, the nationwide expansion of Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar contender Marty Supreme, and musical dramedy Song Sung Blue starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Let’s start with those newcomers in a complicated weekend to project. After a sizzling per theater average in limited release, Marty Supreme could be ready for an impressive expansion. I’ve got it leading the debuting trio with a three-day in the high teens and mid 20s when counting Thursday.
I have Anaconda hitting low teens Friday to Sunday with just over $20 million for the four-day. That would put it in sixth. It is important to remember that holiday holdovers are likely to experience smallish declines since we are in the Christmas corridor.
Song Song Blue could get to double digits over the traditional weekend though I have it barely under for an 8th place start. Word-of-mouth should carry it forward into January as it’s said to be a crowdpleaser.
There’s little doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash will repeat in first. The big question is what the sophomore frame percentage decline will look like after it opened on the lower end of expectations (more on that below). I’m thinking it decreases about 30%.
Three features in their second go-rounds (David, The Housemaid, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants) should all see meager eases as audiences catch up on the Yuletide products. Here’s how I envision the top 8 shaking out and please note projection for holdovers are for Friday to Sunday:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $61.8 million
2. David
Predicted Gross: $19.5 million
3. Marty Supreme
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
6. Anaconda
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
7. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
8. Song Sung Blue
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 19-21)
James Cameron’s third voyage to Pandora had no trouble ruling the charts, but it couldn’t match my forecast. Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $89.1 million compared to my $98 million take. That’s far less than the $134 million that 2022 predecessor The Way of Water made out of the gate. To be fair, Water had far less competition though this is still an unremarkable start. Let’s see how it plays throughout the season.
Biblical animated tale David from Angel Studios took flight with $22 million, just ahead of my $20.8 million. That’s actually the highest opening for the studio (surpassing Sound of Freedom) and it should fill multiplex pews this coming weekend.
The Housemaid, based on a bestseller and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, checked in with $19 million. That’s a tad less than my $21.9 million call as a sizable female crowd turned out.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants underwhelmed compared to other franchise entries with $15.6 million (I said $17.1 million). Family audiences could still make it a priority with kiddos out of school over Christmas.
Finally, Zootopia 2 rounded out the top five with $14.8 million, in line with my $14.3 million prediction. The four-week tally is $283 million.
Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron’s third feature in his epic sci-fi franchise, is the last major piece of the 98th Academy Awards puzzle to come into focus. Opening Friday, the review embargo was lifted today as it hopes to rule the box office over the holidays. While it looks to join the multi-billion dollar club like its two predecessors, Fire additionally seeks to heat up Oscar ballots.
The 2009 original landed nine nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction (which it won), Cinematography (another victory), Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (a third trophy). Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 81% with 83 on Metacritic.
When Avatar: The Way of Water came out 13 years later, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing was combined into just Sound while Art Direction was now Production Design. Water was nominated for both along with Picture. The sole win came for its Visual Effects. Rotten Tomatoes was 76% with Metacritic at 67.
Fire critical reaction is so far the weakest of the trilogy with 70% on RT and a 61 Metacritic. With Oscar shortlists released this afternoon, we already know it won’t be nominated for Cinematography since it is not one of the contending 16 features. It did make four other shortlisted races – Original Score, Original Song (the Miley Cyrus track “Dream As One”), Sound, and Visual Effects.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Visual Effects is a given and Fire is the frontrunner. Sound is likely. I’m not convinced it makes the musical cut in either Score or Song.
What’s left is Picture and Production Design – the other two competitions where the other Avatar‘s got in. The latter is a stronger possibility. This third trip to Pandora could still get into BP. Yet if the Academy goes with a successful late 2025 sequel, I’d give Wicked: For Good an edge. It’s entirely feasible that neither get in. I suspect Fire may only rise in tech competitions when all is said and done. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Hollywood is hoping for merry pre-Christmas tidings with Avatar: Fire and Ash in position to rule the charts. There’s other potential new gifts for multiplexes in the form of psychological thriller The Housemaid and the double animated offerings of biblical tale David and fourquel The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. You can locate my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
The first two Avatar features from newly minted billionaire James Cameron each grossed $2B+ worldwide. Fire looks to keep up pace. I have it under $100 million for its first stateside weekend but with about $36million less than 2022 predecessor The Way of Water.
Placement for slots 2-4 could be unpredictable. Based on a buzzy bestseller, The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried has breakout potential and should serve as shrewd counter programming from blue creatures and family fare. I have it in second.
Faith-based crowds could cause David to top SpongeBob. I have the former in the low 20s with the latter in mid to higher teens. Both look to debut decently and hold impressively over Christmas. Current champ Zootopia 2 should follow in an animated bottom heavy top 5.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $98 million
2. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
3. David
Predicted Gross: $20.8 million
4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
5. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
Box Office Results (December 12-14)
Zootopia 2 returned to rule the charts with $25.8 million in its third frame, a bit ahead of my $23.6 million call. The Disney sequel sits at $258 million domestically and has already topped $1 billion globally.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $19.3 million. The 70% drop was, as expected, steep. However, it didn’t fall as far as my $15.7 million projection suggested. The horror sequel is near nine digits at $95 million.
Wicked: For Good was third with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.2 million prediction and it has conjured up $312 million in four weeks.
Hindi-language action pic Dhurandhar was #4 and I did not have it in the top 5. With $3.4 million, it had the highest per-screen-average of all features (nearly $10k per venue) and brought its earnings to $7.7 million after two weeks.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with only a 32% decline. With $2.3 million in its fifth weekend, the overall gross is $59 million. I also didn’t have it in the leading quintet.
That’s because I slightly overestimated Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution at $2.4 million and it made $2 million in sixth. The two-week take is $14 million.
Finally, poorly reviewed dramedy Ella McCay from veteran filmmaker James L. Brooks languished in seventh with $2 million. I was slightly a little more generous at $2.7 million.
Avatar: Fire and Ash hopes to heat up the holiday box office season on December 19th. Clocking in at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel arrives 16 years after the record breaking original and 3 years behind Avatar: The Way of Water. The large list of returning cast members doing their motion capture work includes Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, and Jack Champion. Oona Chaplin (daughter of Geraldine and granddaughter of Charlie) is a new addition and said to be a standout in a villainess turn.
Back in 2009, Avatar was seen a big risk for 20th Century Studios. After a $77 million opening, it legged out to (at the time) become the biggest blockbuster in history with $749 million domestically. That number has climbed to $785 million when factoring re-releases. The worldwide total is $2.9 billion. 2022’s The Way of Water actually underperformed in its first frame with $134 million but held fantastically throughout the holidays and beyond. It ended up with $688 million stateside after counting its recent re-release and $2.3 billion across the globe.
Forecasts have Fire coming in lower than Water and that makes sense. There was a 13 year build-up of anticipation for the first sequel. Only a three-year gap separates these. Competitors didn’t shy away from Fire either. While Water was the only wide release in its mid-December date, this will have animated biblical tale David, female catering The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob flick providing alternatives. To be fair, part of Water‘s lack of competition was due to COVID related lack of product.
Fire might fall just under $100 million for starters. Then it will look for a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and new year.
Avatar: Fire and Ash opening weekend prediction: $98 million
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. All four acting contests have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, they are linked here:
I published my first preview of the directing field on April 12th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
The 5 eventual nominees could be found among those 15 possibilities. However, we can be confident some won’t make it in. For Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King seems to be a 2026 release. After the Hunt was a commercial and critical disappointment and Luca Guadagnino appears to be a non-factor. The out of contention status also applies to Edward Berger, Mike Flanagan, and Spike Lee.
Let’s get into the others and other names not raised back in April. Both Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao’s movies are probable safe bets for BP. They could certainly come along for the ride. I’m slightly more confident in Zhao contending for her second trophy after winning in 2020 for Nomadland though Safdie is definitely viable in his solo behind the camera effort.
Park Chan-wook’s fortunes should be tied to whether No Other Choice makes BP and I keep going back and forth on that. The same could be said Noah Baumbach, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Their respective features Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good (as yet unseen), Frankenstein, and Bugonia are all on the BP bubble. Same goes for the unmentioned A House of Dynamite and Kathryn Bigelow.
Even if Avatar: Fire and Ash gets into BP, I’m skeptical James Cameron is in unless the third franchise entry as universally seen as the best. We’ll know that in a few weeks.
Sentimental Value is not on the bubble. Its ticket is likely punched and that could benefit Joachim Trier for a first nomination though I don’t believe his nom is assured as the movie’s.
Who is assured? Paul Thomas Anderson. One Battle is your soft frontrunner for BP and this is a golden opportunity for the Academy to honor PTA for this and his overall body of work.
I also think Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is in for his vampire epic which is the other Warner Bros title vying for BP alongside One Battle.
A pair of foreign filmmakers could vie for a slot – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Kieber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent). Their fortunes are also tied to BP inclusion and I feel the latter has a stronger pathway.
In conclusion, I feel safe with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao RSVP’d for the directorial dance. The other two noms could be filled by plenty of names above. My in-depth posts on the six biggest categories will conclude with Best Picture!
Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.
The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.
While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.
My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.
Here’s I have it all shaking out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
2. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
3. The Smashing Machine
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.
Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.
Before the third edition of James Cameron’s money minting franchise arrives in December, predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases on October 3rd. Originally out in December 2022, the sci-fi epic looks to add to its $684 million in domestic dollars (good for 7th all-time) and excite moviegoers for Avatar: Fire an Ash.
This is not a new release pattern for 20th Century Studios. In September 2022, the first Avatar (the 4th biggest stateside grosser ever) had a return engagement in multiplexes. It added $10.5 million in its first 3 days.
The slightly diminishing (though still potent) results that greeted Water should apply once again. The re-release of 2009’s original was likely assisted by a longer lag time than what we have here. Nevertheless I’ll saythis return engagement still manages mid single digits.
Avatar: The Way of Water re-release opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!
I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.
Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.
Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.
As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.
Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me fromNowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)
17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)
18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. After the Hunt
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident
7. Sorry, Baby
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. The Secret Agent
10. Ann Lee
11. Rental Family
12. Ella McCay
13. Is This Thing On?
14. Nouvelle Vague
15. A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hamnet
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. One Battle After Another
5. No Other Choice
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein
7. Wicked: For Good
8. The Life of Chuck
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Train Dreams
11. Die, My Love
12. Late Fame
13. Highest 2 Lowest
14. Hedda
15. The Smashing Machine
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. The Secret Agent
4. No Other Choice
5. The President’s Cake
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirát
7. Sound of Falling
8. Left-Handed Girl
9. Nouvelle Vague
10. The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2
2. Arco
3. Elio
4. Scarlet
5. In Your Dreams
Other Possibilities:
6. Animal Farm
7. A Magnificent Life
8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain
9. KPop Demon Hunters
10. Ne Zha 2
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Seeds
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Cutting Through Rocks
5. Deaf President Now!
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
9. The Six Billion Dollar Man
10. The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. After the Hunt
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sentimental Value
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly
7. Marty Supreme
8. The Rivals of Amziah King
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Frankenstein
3. Bugonia
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Rivals of Amziah King
Other Possibilities:
6. F1
7. Sentimental Value
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman
5. Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Lee
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
8. Mother Mary
9. Snow White
10. One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Bugonia
5. F1
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt
7. Wicked: For Good
8. One Battle After Another
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later
7. Bugonia
8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
10. Wolf Man
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners
2. Bugonia
3. After the Hunt
4. Frankenstein
5. Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another
7. F1
8. Sentimental Value
9. The Rivals of Amziah King
10. Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. TBD from Zootopia 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
10. TBD from Mother Mary
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia
7. One Battle After Another
8. Marty Supreme
9. The Phoenician Scheme
10. Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Warfare
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman
9. Frankenstein
10. Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Frankenstein
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
7. F1
8. How to Train Your Dragon
9. Tron: Ares
10. Sinners
Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
After the Hunt
7 Nominations
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme
6 Nominatons
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominatons
F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare
As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.
While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.
I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.
The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)
17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)
21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)
24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sound of Falling
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)
Best Actress
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)
11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)
14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)
There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.
With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).
Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)
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