Tag: Jack Champion

Oscar Predictions – Avatar: Fire and Ash

Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron’s third feature in his epic sci-fi franchise, is the last major piece of the 98th Academy Awards puzzle to come into focus. Opening Friday, the review embargo was lifted today as it hopes to rule the box office over the holidays. While it looks to join the multi-billion dollar club like its two predecessors, Fire additionally seeks to heat up Oscar ballots.

The 2009 original landed nine nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction (which it won), Cinematography (another victory), Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (a third trophy). Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 81% with 83 on Metacritic.

When Avatar: The Way of Water came out 13 years later, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing was combined into just Sound while Art Direction was now Production Design. Water was nominated for both along with Picture. The sole win came for its Visual Effects. Rotten Tomatoes was 76% with Metacritic at 67.

Fire critical reaction is so far the weakest of the trilogy with 70% on RT and a 61 Metacritic. With Oscar shortlists released this afternoon, we already know it won’t be nominated for Cinematography since it is not one of the contending 16 features. It did make four other shortlisted races – Original Score, Original Song (the Miley Cyrus track “Dream As One”), Sound, and Visual Effects.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Visual Effects is a given and Fire is the frontrunner. Sound is likely. I’m not convinced it makes the musical cut in either Score or Song.

What’s left is Picture and Production Design – the other two competitions where the other Avatar‘s got in. The latter is a stronger possibility. This third trip to Pandora could still get into BP. Yet if the Academy goes with a successful late 2025 sequel, I’d give Wicked: For Good an edge. It’s entirely feasible that neither get in. I suspect Fire may only rise in tech competitions when all is said and done. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Prediction

Avatar: Fire and Ash hopes to heat up the holiday box office season on December 19th. Clocking in at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel arrives 16 years after the record breaking original and 3 years behind Avatar: The Way of Water. The large list of returning cast members doing their motion capture work includes Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, and Jack Champion. Oona Chaplin (daughter of Geraldine and granddaughter of Charlie) is a new addition and said to be a standout in a villainess turn.

Back in 2009, Avatar was seen a big risk for 20th Century Studios. After a $77 million opening, it legged out to (at the time) become the biggest blockbuster in history with $749 million domestically. That number has climbed to $785 million when factoring re-releases. The worldwide total is $2.9 billion. 2022’s The Way of Water actually underperformed in its first frame with $134 million but held fantastically throughout the holidays and beyond. It ended up with $688 million stateside after counting its recent re-release and $2.3 billion across the globe.

Forecasts have Fire coming in lower than Water and that makes sense. There was a 13 year build-up of anticipation for the first sequel. Only a three-year gap separates these. Competitors didn’t shy away from Fire either. While Water was the only wide release in its mid-December date, this will have animated biblical tale David, female catering The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob flick providing alternatives. To be fair, part of Water‘s lack of competition was due to COVID related lack of product.

Fire might fall just under $100 million for starters. Then it will look for a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and new year.

Avatar: Fire and Ash opening weekend prediction: $98 million

For my David prediction, click here:

David Box Office Prediction

For my The Housemaid prediction, click here:

The Housemaid Box Office Prediction

For my The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants prediction, click here:

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Everything’s Going to Be Great

Out this weekend after a Tribeca Film Festival premiere days ago, Jon S. Baird (Stan & Ollie, Tetris) helms the family dramedy Everything’s Going to Be Great. Focused on a clan of regional theater players, Allison Janney and Bryan Cranston are the parents in this coming-of-age tale costarring Benjamin Evan Ainsworth, Jack Champion, Simon Rex, and Chris Cooper.

According to several critics, everything in Everything‘s is not great. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 50% with Metacritic at 49. Despite the presence of Academy recipients like Janney and Cooper and a nominee in Cranston, this will not be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Freaky Tales

The most positive reviews of Freaky Tales, which has screened at Sundance, indicate it might be more at home coming in a VHS box. Called a love letter to the 80s era it is set in and to the city of Oakland, Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck (the team behind Half Nelson and Captain Marvel) direct the action drama depicting four connected stories. The cast includes Pedro Pascal, Jay Ellis, Normani, Dominique Thorne, Ben Mendelsohn, Ji-young Yoo, Jack Champion, and the late Angus Cloud. Fun fact: Too Short, famed Oakland rapper, narrates.

Critics extolling its virtues and shortfalls bring up Pulp Fiction and Tarantino. Yet unlike that 30-year-old classic, reaction is mixed with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. And unlike Fiction, it is likely a fact that Freaky Tales won’t be an awards contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Retribution Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.2M to $2.4M

Liam Neeson’s string of action thrillers continues with Retribution this weekend as he attempts to reverse some recent box office bad luck. Predators director Nimrod Antal is behind the camera with a supporting cast including Noma Dumezweni, Lilly Aspell, Jack Champion, Embeth Davidtz, and Matthew Modine.

The Neeson shoot-em-ups this decade haven’t come close to matching Taken, its sequels, and other hits that followed shortly thereafter. Yet their opening grosses have been remarkably consistent. 2020’s Honest Thief made off with $3.6 million for its start. In 2021, The Marksman hit $3.1 million. In 2022, Blacklight took in $3.5 million while the same year’s Memory made $3.1 million.

I haven’t seen a screen count for this Roadside Attractions effort and that could alter my projection. However, I don’t see any reason why this would make considerably more or less than the aforementioned genre exercises. Perhaps National Cinema Day on Sunday (with ticket prices at $4) will help, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Retribution opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million

For my Gran Turismo prediction, click here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction

For my The Hill prediction, click here:

The Hill Box Office Prediction

Scream VI Review

There’s more than one way to clean a knife after piercing a victim’s skin in the Scream flicks. The filmmakers appear determined to give this series nine lives or more as the sixth installment finds new terrorizers to fill the Ghostface mask. Let’s quickly go through the strange name game as 2022’s Scream was really Scream V. Termed as a requel, Urban Dictionary considers that a “sequel to a movie that functions somewhere between a sequel, a reboot, and a remake”. Unfortunately Scream (’22 version) didn’t function that well at all. With directors Matt Bettinelli and Tyler Gillett taking over directorial duties from the late Wes Craven, they showed lots of appreciation for the original from 1996. Like the other follow-ups, it couldn’t compare to the fresh satiric edge that part 1 had. In fact, despite a well-executed slashing or two, I’d rank it fifth of the lot.

Now I’d rank it sixth because Scream VI is a minor improvement. It picks up a year after the events of the fifth. We’re not in Woodsboro anymore as Sam Carpenter (Melissa Barrera), daughter of the OG Ghostface Billy Loomis, has relocated to the Big Apple. She’s there mostly to keep watch over little sister Tara (Jenna Ortega), now a college freshman along with sister and brother Mindy (Jasmin Savoy Brown) and Chad (Mason Gooding). They call themselves the Core 4 since they managed to survive the havoc wreaked by Sam’s ex-bf Richie in the last go-round.

The dwindling legacy characters returning are Gail Weathers (Courtney Cox), the reporter who’s always looking for a way to make a buck from the mayhem. There’s also Kirby Reed (Hayden Panettiere), who played an integral role in Scream 4. She was the best friend to the eventual Ghostface in that one. And while part four was one of the better sequels, I would understand if you forgot her character. Now Kirby is an FBI agent who shows up to help (which obviously makes her a quick suspect). I wonder if her appearance might be due to Sidney (Neve Campbell) not being present. Word is they didn’t want to show her the money to appear.

While the predecessor often paid homage to Scream ’96 (released the same month when Mason Gooding’s dad Cuba was screaming “Show me the money!” to Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire), this has its winks to Scream 2 from 1997 by being set in the higher ed world. Some of the brutal sequences are well-constructed. The opening with Samara Weaving as a college professor on a blind date is a clever way to start.

Part of the fun in the Scream pics is figuring out the slayers and it’s usually more than one. There’s a few to consider with Sam’s neighbor and secret lover (Josh Segarra), the detective father (Dermot Mulroney) of her roommate Quinn (Liana Liberato), and Chad’s roommate Ethan (Jack Champion). And who knows? Maybe Papa Billy’s demonic genes are infecting Sam.

As we’ve seen before in this franchise, there’s a scene where a character explains that the “rules have changed!”. And nothing is as it seems. The NYC locale change is welcome (Ghostface brandishing a shotgun in a bodega is fresh new territory). Scream VI gets by for a while in the new setting and with its furious piercings. Sadly it is not faster. The 122 minute runtime is a series record and when we reach the third act, the rules haven’t changed much with the unmasking reveals. That portion is the biggest letdown. There’s only so many ways to inject life into these deaths, but they’ll find ways as long as we continue to show them the money.

**1/2 (out of four)

Scream VI Box Office Prediction

In January 2022, Scream successfully resurrected the franchise that Wes Craven began in 1996. A sequel was approved immediately and Scream VI slashes into multiplexes March 10th. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett are back directing with Melissa Barrera, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Mason Gooding, Jenna Ortega (whose star has risen thanks to Wednesday), Hayden Panettiere, and Courtney Cox reprising their roles from prior installments. Other costars include Jack Champion, Henry Czerny, Liana Liberato, Dermot Mulroney, Tony Revolori, and Samara Weaving. For the first time, Neve Campbell is not among the cast.

In 2011, Scream 4 marked the financial nadir of the bunch when it made only $38 million domestically. A silent decade between entries got the nostalgia juices flowing as last year’s Scream took in $30 million in its first three days and $81 million total stateside. With a B+ Cinemascore (quite solid for a horror pic), anticipation for this sequel should be high.

Scream VI appears poised to challenge the record opening weekend for the series. That belongs to Scream 3 with $34 million and tracking suggests Ghostface could wield the power to top that number. I’ll forecast it manages to get there and perhaps top $40 million.

Scream VI opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million

For my 65 prediction, click here:

65 Box Office Prediction

For my Champions prediction, click here:

Champions Box Office Prediction

Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water

My Case Of posts where I serve as the defense for and prosecution against the Best Picture, Director, and four acting competition hopefuls arrives at our second contender in the biggest race of all. That’s Avatar: The Way of Water, James Cameron’s long-in-development sequel to 2009’s 3D game changer.

The Case for Avatar: The Way of Water:

If the Academy wants to honor the highest grossing worldwide pic of the bunch, this is your movie. Cameron’s follow-up just surpassed $2 billion at the global box office and has ruled the domestic box office for seven weeks running.

The Case Against Avatar: The Way of Water:

If the Academy wants to honor the highest grossing domestic pic of the bunch, Top Gun: Maverick is their movie. It’s the sequel that had the best nominations haul on Oscar noms morning. Water‘s four overall mentions are less than half of the nine achieved by the original 13 years ago. It won three – Art Direction (now Production Design), Cinematography, and Visual Effects. This one seems destined for a sole victory. Cameron couldn’t make the final five for his direction (he did get a Globes nod) and editing is another significant omission.

Other Nominations:

Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects

The Verdict:

That likely win is in Visual Effects. With the aforementioned whiffs in direction and editing and the less than impressive haul (compared to part 1), Water was pretty fortunate to make the cut at all.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Banshees of Inisherin!

If you missed my posts covering the other BP contenders, click here:

Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Elvis
Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once
Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans
Oscars: The Case of Tár
Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick
Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness

Avatar: The Way of Water Review

Avatar: The Way of Water is both visually sparkling and narratively flat. In that sense, James Cameron’s sequel is much like the 2009 original (which happens to be worldwide highest grosser in history). The effects thirteen years ago were revolutionary and kicked off a mostly unfortunate trend of tentpoles getting the three-dimensional treatment. That sense of wonder from Avatar is present occasionally below the surface in a few astounding underwater sequences. Many blockbusters have competed with this franchise in visual splendor and come up short and that includes some shoddy MCU battles. Cameron and his crew can still wow, but subpar writing and a lack of tight editing remains a problem. If you loved the forests of Pandora in part 1 and didn’t want to leave, you’ll likely love lounging in the aquatic action of this follow-up. If your feelings were mixed like mine were, expect a similar reaction.

Former Marine Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and Na’vi spiritual leader in waiting Neytiri (Zoe Saldana) are married with four kids as Water begins (it’s set a decade and a half plus post Avatar). Adopted teenage daughter Kiri (voiced by Sigourney Weaver) is miraculously spawned from Sigourney’s scientist in the original. We suspect she might have special powers if she can get over her Jan Brady lot in life. Older brother Neteyam (Jamie Flatters) is the responsible one while second born boy Lo’ak (Britain Dalton) is the rebel. Youngest girl Tuk (Trinity Jo-Li Bliss) is eight and precocious. The Sully tribe are living a peaceful existence until those mean corporate Earthlings return to Pandora. On their list of plays is total colonization as the home planet is dying.

Due to a memory implant system, Stephen Lang’s villainous Colonel is leading the charge in the guise of a Na’vi big blue boy. He has revenge on his mind since it was Neytiri who arrowed him to death years ago. There’s also a son he left behind that the Sully’s are raising who goes by Spider (Jack Champion). Clad in a loincloth, his character comes off as a cartoonish plot device. He’s got about as much depth as Bam Bam Rubble. The dynamic between Spider and his father is one of a few daddy issues happening. I half expected a sky complected Maury Povich to interrupt and start moderating.

Since Jake is being targeted for his skill in fighting off the Sky People, he relocates his brood to the tropical island of At’wa Attu. They feel out of place among the residents who spend much of their day submerged. The chief of their clan known as the Metkayina is Tonwari (Cliff Curtis). He and his pregnant wife Ronal (Kate Winslet) are skeptical about harboring their guests. It’s in and around the island where some memorable moments happen. The Metkayina share a spiritual connection with the giant mammals swimming below. Lo’ak befriends one of them and it’s a subplot that clicks.

Part 2 relegates Jake and Neytiri to the sidelines for much of its three hours and 12 minutes. A larger focus is on their offspring and how they feel like fish out of water. The filmmaker’s own well-documented fascination with the deep comes in handy with the whale tale portions and beyond. The bulk of its themes, on the other hand, are heavily borrowed from before. Cameron and his tech wizards can enthrall us and exasperate us in this new habitat that questions our humanity.

*** (out of four)