Tag: Jack Black

January 2-4 Box Office Predictions

We have no major wide releases to start off the year as holiday holdovers will rule the charts. That should start with Avatar: Fire and Ash for a third consecutive weekend in 1st position. The jockeying for chart placement after that could be interesting.

Seasonal leftovers often see minimal declines during the Christmas corridor and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case this time around. Some dips should be less severe than others. Anaconda, for example, received a meh B Cinemascore grade. Percentage wise, I suspect it will fall further in its sophomore outing than Marty Supreme (B+ CS) or Song Sung Blue (which received an A grade).

Adult audiences might be keeping up with Supreme and Blue as well as The Housemaid while parents and their kiddos catch up (or take in repeat viewings) of Zootopia 2, David, and SpongeBob. Here’s how I see the top 8 shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $42 million

2. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Marty Supreme

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Anaconda

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

7. David

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

8. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (December 26-28)

Avatar: Fire and Ash scorched the Yuletide box office with a mere 29% decline for $63 million in its sophomore weekend. That just tops my $61.8 million prediction as James Cameron’s third franchise entry climbed to $216 million.

Where I went wrong in my Christmas projections was with animated features. I didn’t give Zootopia 2 enough credit in its fifth go-round as it was second and increased its family audience by 34% to $19.8 million compared to my $13.8 million call. The Disney juggernaut’s haul is $321 million.

Of the three holiday newcomers, I was correct in projecting that Marty Supreme would earn the most in third. Timothée Chalamet had his third holiday hit in a row as the period sports drama made $17.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with $27.3 million since Thursday. That’s right in line with my respective estimates of $18.2 million and $27.6 million. It looks like a bright road ahead for the Oscar hopeful.

The Housemaid held sturdy in weekend #2 with $15.3 million. I went with a tad more at $17.3 million as the thriller is up to $46 million.

Meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black rounded out the top five with $14.5 million and $23.5 million when counting Christmas Day. I was close with predictions of $14.2 million and $20.5 million. As mentioned above, its future is a bit murkier.

Continuing the theme of animated misses on my part, Biblical tale David dropped more than I figured with $12.5 million in sixth. I said $19.5 million though the Angel Studios release is doing just fine with $49 million in two weeks.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants was seventh with $11.1 million, shy of my $14.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is $38 million.

Finally, Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson opened in eighth with $7 million with $11.4 million including Thursday grosses. That’s below my $9.6 million and $13.7 million predictions as it hopes word-of-mouth keeps it afloat for a few weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Three Christmas offerings look to brighten up the box office as 2025 draws to a close. We have meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black, the nationwide expansion of Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar contender Marty Supreme, and musical dramedy Song Sung Blue starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Anaconda Box Office Prediction
Marty Supreme Box Office Prediction
Song Sung Blue Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with those newcomers in a complicated weekend to project. After a sizzling per theater average in limited release, Marty Supreme could be ready for an impressive expansion. I’ve got it leading the debuting trio with a three-day in the high teens and mid 20s when counting Thursday.

I have Anaconda hitting low teens Friday to Sunday with just over $20 million for the four-day. That would put it in sixth. It is important to remember that holiday holdovers are likely to experience smallish declines since we are in the Christmas corridor.

Song Song Blue could get to double digits over the traditional weekend though I have it barely under for an 8th place start. Word-of-mouth should carry it forward into January as it’s said to be a crowdpleaser.

There’s little doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash will repeat in first. The big question is what the sophomore frame percentage decline will look like after it opened on the lower end of expectations (more on that below). I’m thinking it decreases about 30%.

Three features in their second go-rounds (David, The Housemaid, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants) should all see meager eases as audiences catch up on the Yuletide products. Here’s how I envision the top 8 shaking out and please note projection for holdovers are for Friday to Sunday:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $61.8 million

2. David

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

3. Marty Supreme

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

5. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

6. Anaconda

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)

7. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

8. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (December 19-21)

James Cameron’s third voyage to Pandora had no trouble ruling the charts, but it couldn’t match my forecast. Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $89.1 million compared to my $98 million take. That’s far less than the $134 million that 2022 predecessor The Way of Water made out of the gate. To be fair, Water had far less competition though this is still an unremarkable start. Let’s see how it plays throughout the season.

Biblical animated tale David from Angel Studios took flight with $22 million, just ahead of my $20.8 million. That’s actually the highest opening for the studio (surpassing Sound of Freedom) and it should fill multiplex pews this coming weekend.

The Housemaid, based on a bestseller and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, checked in with $19 million. That’s a tad less than my $21.9 million call as a sizable female crowd turned out.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants underwhelmed compared to other franchise entries with $15.6 million (I said $17.1 million). Family audiences could still make it a priority with kiddos out of school over Christmas.

Finally, Zootopia 2 rounded out the top five with $14.8 million, in line with my $14.3 million prediction. The four-week tally is $283 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Anaconda Box Office Prediction

Sony is banking on Anaconda mixing up a lot of box office dough when it debuts on Christmas Day. The high-concept comedy from Tom Gormican finds Paul Rudd and Jack Black, fresh off A Minecraft Movie, attempting to remake the 1997 cult favorite feature of the same name that starred Jennifer Lopez, Ice Cube, Owen Wilson, and Jon Voight. The supporting players in this meta experience include Steve Zahn, Thandiwe Newton, Daniela Melchior, and Selton Mello.

Younger viewers may not be overly familiar with the source material. However, the PG-13 rating and comedic heavyweights should help push this to a decent start. With Christmas on a Thursday (that hasn’t occurred since 2014), crunching the numbers is a little tricky. A four-day rollout near $30 million is doable though I’ll go with low to mid teens for the traditional weekend and low 20s when counting the holiday.

Anaconda opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Marty Supreme prediction, click here:

Marty Supreme Box Office Prediction

For my Song Sung Blue prediction, click here:

Song Sung Blue Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: A Minecraft Movie

Warner Bros is banking on A Minecraft Movie receiving lots of play when it debuts this weekend. The adventure comedy is based on the hugely successful interactive game with Jared Hess directing. The cast includes Jason Momoa, Jack Black (who’s become a regular in video game based or game adjacent flicks), Emma Myers, Danielle Brooks, Sebastian Hansen, Rachel House, and Jennifer Coolidge.

Some reviews are pretty kind and others not so much. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 56% with 48 on Metacritic. Write-ups of the thumbs down variety aren’t complimentary of the CG. Visual Effects is the only awards category where this theoretically would materialize in awards races. It’s likely voters will have blocked Minecraft out completely. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.

The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.

As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.

Here’s how I have the chart playing out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $92.5 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.

Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.

The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.

The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.

Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.

A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Borderlands

Before you laugh at me for putting “Oscar Predictions” in front of Borderlands (out tomorrow), the sci-fi action spectacle based on a popular video game series has plenty of special effects. Therefore Eli Roth’s rendering of the source material could theoretically play in Visual Effects.

It won’t. The cast includes two-time Academy Award recipient Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Édgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, and recent Supporting Actress winner Jamie Lee Curtis. However, this is shaping up to be one of the biggest box office bombs of 2024. With a budget reportedly in the $120 million vicinity, I don’t even have it reaching $10 million during opening weekend.

Then there’s the reviews. Oof. The embargo was lifted hours before its release and now we know why. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 3% with a grand total of one positive(ish) write-up (here’s looking at you Grace Randolph)!

You can safely assume Borderlands won’t resonate with the Academy’s voters. On the other hand, it is the likely frontrunner for the Razzie Awards early next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million

For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.

The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.

Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.

Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my It Ends with Us prediction, click here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Kung Fu Panda 4

While animated titles dealing with spiders or herons are the likeliest Best Animated Feature Oscar winner this Sunday, Kung Fu Panda 4 hopes to take the box office this weekend. DreamWorks Animation’s martial arts comedy comes from director Mike Mitchell with Jack Black reprising his role as Po. Dustin Hoffman, Awkwafina, Viola Davis, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, Ian McShane, Ke Huy Quan, Lori Tan Chinn, and Ronny Chieng also provide voiceover work.

The first pair of Panda pics in 2008 and 2011 both received Animated Feature nods from the Academy, losing respectively to Wall-E and Rango. The third edition in 2016 did not manage to make the quintet despite matching the original’s 87% RT score (the second one hit 81%). No. 4 currently sits at 78%. If competition is weak, perhaps this series could return to contention. I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Kung Fu Panda 4 Box Office Prediction

DreamWorks Animation hopes to reverse diminishing returns for its comedic martial arts franchise when Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives in theaters March 8th. Mike Mitchell, maker of such genre fare including Shrek Forever After and Trolls, directs. Jack Black is back voicing the title character alongside returnees Dustin Hoffman, James Hong, Bryan Cranston, and Ian McShane. Newcomers include Awkwafina, Ke Huy Quan, Ronny Chieng, Lori Tan Chinn, and Viola Davis.

In the summer of 2008, the first Panda sighting kicked off with $60 million and an eventual $215 million domestic haul. Three summers later, the second edition also made $60 million. However, that was with an extra day of grosses due to the Memorial Day holiday. Its lesser total was $165 million. By January 2016, Kung Fu Panda 3 premiered at $41 million and then $143 million overall.

The eight year layoff is easily the longest between entries. Absence could make the heart grow fonder or at least enough to match its predecessor’s beginning. Yet I suspect mid to high 30s is more likely.

Kung Fu Panda 4 opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million

For my Imaginary prediction, click here:

Imaginary Box Office Prediction

For my Cabrini prediction, click here:

Cabrini Box Office Prediction