Tag: J.A. Bayona

96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 6th Edition

We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.

As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.

You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.

You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)

2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Society of the Snow

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godland

The Monk and the Gun

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. Suzume (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Peasants (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wish (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

American Fiction

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer, Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.

In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.

I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)

10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

Oscar Predictions: Society of the Snow

J.A. Bayona’s Society of the Snow served as the closing night feature at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month and, as expected, has been submitted by Spain as their Oscar hopeful for International Feature Film. The survival drama is expected to be streaming on Netflix by year’s end. It tells the real life tale of Uruguayan Flight 571’s crash in the Andes Mountains in 1972. Bayona is no stranger to disaster dramas with 2012’s The Impossible, which nabbed Naomi Watts a Best Actress nod. His last pic was 2018’s dino sequel Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Based on a small sampling (9 reviews), Snow has lodged a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. Spain has had a spotty record getting their selections into the final five with the Academy. In the 21st century, The Sea Inside was the 2004 winner and 2019’s Pain and Glory was nominated. That’s where their luck ends.

I currently have Snow at #7 in IFF. Its chances are decent and getting a lot of eyeballs via Netflix should only assist. If I’m betting now, however, I’ll say it makes the shortlist and not the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARndpfgm9Jo

Jurassic World: Dominion Review

When the predecessor to Jurassic World: Dominion was unveiled in the summer of 2018, it proved the franchise had indeed fallen to a new level of mediocrity. Fallen Kingdom was a huge disappointment. As much as I wanted to give it credit for trying some new things, the execution failed. Despite a couple of cool set pieces and the dinosaurs still looking cool, I found Kingdom to be the worst of the five in the series.

Dominion challenges that status. Colin Trevorrow made 2015’s Jurassic World. While many of the complaints about it were valid, I still found it to be satisfactory even if did lean hard on the nostalgia angle. After J.A. Bayona handled directorial duties for #2, Trevorrow is back behind the camera here and the nostalgic leanings are in full force. So much so that the three stars of 1993’s iconic Jurassic Park – Sam Neill’s Dr. Alan Grant, Laura Dern’s Dr. Ellie Sattler, Jeff Goldblum’s Dr. Ian Malcolm – are mixing it up with Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, and their sort of daughter who may or may not be a clone.

In case you forgot (and I wouldn’t blame you if you did), Fallen Kingdom thrust human cloning upon us as a plot point. Isabella Sermon’s Maisie was revealed to be the recipient of such experimentation and now she’s a young teen living with Pratt’s Owen and Howard’s Claire deep in the woods. She’s not allowed to go anywhere because many would like to continue experimenting on her. Her isolation is wearing on her as she seeks to break out of her small radius. As you may also recall, dinosaurs are now roaming freely across parts of the world (including Maisie’s backyard).

There’s one corporation who’d like to snatch Maisie and her Dino friends. Biosyn Genetics is run by Dr. Lewis Dodgson (Campbell Scott). Located in the Italian mountains, the futuristic company has its greedy hands in all kinds of pots. The main one involves locusts. Yes, a significant portion of Dominion‘s plot involves these crop eating creatures and Biosyn’s plans to control the world’s food supply. If that seems like an out of nowhere storyline that has little to do with dinosaurs, you’d be correct.

However, these CG locusts do give an excuse to bring back Neill and Dern’s characters when they travel to Italy to investigate (Goldblum is already working for the company). When Maisie is snatched up, Owen and Claire find themselves trekking overseas as well for what we know will eventually be a melding of the stars of both trilogies.

There’s some new characters including DeWanda Wise’s cocky Air Force pilot and Mamoudou Athie as Dodgson’s morally conflicted right hand man. The real thrill is meant to be the return of the OG players from three decades ago. Here’s the rub – despite Jurassic Park being amazing, its one minor flaw was its human characters (with the exception of Goldblum) being a bit dull. Seeing Neill and Dern reignite their unrequited passion isn’t exactly Han showing up on the Millennium Falcon with Chewie after 30 years. I’ve already discussed the lack of passion between Owen and Claire in my review of the predecessor.

Where Dominion manages to be a very slight improvement over Kingdom is a couple of expertly constructed action sequences. A car chase involving the prehistoric creatures in Malta is legitimately thrilling. These brief moments of excitement are too often interrupted by humdrum fan service, cloning, and attacks of the locusts. In other words, there’s a couple of cool set pieces and the dinosaurs still look cool. It’s not enough. The Jurassic series veered off course with Kingdom and it doesn’t regain much footing in Dominion. 

** (out of four)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Movie Review

The central theme of the Jurassic franchise is whether the scientific re-creation of dinosaurs for profit is enough reason to justify their existence. Of course, the real reason these movies exist is so we can gaze upon glorious CG creatures that took our breath away 25 years ago in Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park. Three years ago, Colin Trevorrow gave us Jurassic World. It did just enough to tap into our nostalgia for the original while keeping another central theme prominent in all series entries – the humans are less interesting than their prehistoric counterparts.

In the inevitable sequel Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, we have a newer problem in that the dinosaurs are becoming increasingly less fascinating. When we left that theme park in 2015, it was in tatters due to the havoc wrought by its main attractions. We’re informed that the dinos still roam the deserted Isla Nublar and there’s a political debate as to what to do with them. That conversation is accelerated as a volcano is about to erupt on the island and incinerate everything. As audience members, let’s just choose to forget that even if the park had become successful and free of T-Rex breakouts, it would’ve only existed for three years because of that volcano. We don’t watch Jurassic pics for logic, after all.

The impending meltdown gets the attention of Claire (Bryce Dallas Howard), the park’s former operations manager, who’s now an advocate for the dinosaurs survival. Her nephews from Jurassic World aren’t seen or mentioned. Perhaps they were smart enough to want nothing to do with all this. She’s recruited by Ben Lockwood (James Cromwell), the ailing former partner of the late John Hammond, to gather up Isla Nublar’s famous residents. Claire recruits her ex-flame and dino whisperer Owen (Chris Pratt) to join her, along with a ragtag group of assistants and military types led by mercenary and hunter Ted Levine. It turns out Lockwood’s assistant (Rafe Spall, a rather bland villain) might have conjured up other ideas for the creatures true purposes. Oh and Lockwood has a granddaughter Maisie (Isabella Sermon). Kids in Jurassic flicks are mandatory. She’s got a spotty British accent and an eventual revelation about her character that is downright bonkers.

Our return to Jurassic World does allow for a couple imaginative action sequences that are well choreographed and filmed by franchise newcomer J.A. Bayona (Trevorrow isn’t behind the camera but has co-writing credit). In the second half, the pic moves to a more insulated setting. This section is less satisfying. While Bayona and company get a wee bit of credit for trying something different, the execution falters.

That’s the real issue here. 25 summers ago, the visuals of Jurassic Park were brand new and stunning. The technology, while still state of the art, isn’t fresh anymore. Human characters here aren’t compelling either. The dynamic between Pratt and Howard is as dull as before. Jeff Goldblum turns up as Dr. Malcolm for the first time since 1997’s The Lost World, but his presence is brief and forgettable. What wowed us a quarter century ago is now a listless undertaking occasionally punctuated by genuine excitement. Put another way, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom has a tough time justifying its existence.

** (out of four)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (06/15): I am revising my prediction down from $155.4 million to $140.4 million

Arriving three years after its predecessor set a series of box office records, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom looks to flex its dino might next weekend. The fifth picture in the massive franchise that just turned 25 years old, Kingdom is the sequel to Jurassic World and brings back Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard, and Jeff Goldblum (for the first time since 1997’s The Lost World). New cast members include Rafe Spall, Justice Smith, Daniella Pineda, James Cromwell, Toby Jones, and Ted Levine. J.A. Bayona takes over directorial duties from Colin Trevorrow.

The history of this franchise setting opening weekend milestones is significant. Steven Spielberg’s original in 1993 had the largest debut ever at $47 million a quarter century ago. The Lost World would achieve the same honor four years later with $72 million. And, of course, Jurassic World stunned prognosticators in 2015 with $208 million out of the gate, which stood as the greatest premiere until Star Wars: The Force Awakens topped it six months later.

Fallen Kingdom will not and is not expected to break records. Jurassic World seemed to have its stars aligned for a spectacular opening. It had been nearly a decade and a half since the previous installment and the nostalgia factor was off the charts. Mostly positive reviews didn’t hurt and Mr. Pratt was coming off a star making role in Guardians of the Galaxy.

Critical reaction is mixed. The sequel currently sits at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes (World got to 71%). The film is already out in a number of foreign markets and it earned $151 million worldwide over the weekend (a bit above expectations).

The stateside tracking for Kingdom is between $130-$150 million. My general feeling is that this franchise has continually exceeded expectations and may do so here, albeit not by much. Jurassic World was a phenomenon while this is looked at as another summer sequel. It just happens to be one with a huge fan base who love returning to see these CG creatures.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $140.4 million

Oscar Watch – Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

A quarter century after Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park thrilled audiences with its eye-popping visuals, the fifth entry in the franchise arrives domestically two weeks from Friday. However, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is out tomorrow in the United Kingdom, so critical reaction is present. The verdict? Mixed. Kingdom currently sits at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes (predecessor Jurassic World ended up with 71%).

No Oscar prognosticator looked at this as Best Picture material. This series is all about the potential for technical recognition. The 1993 original was nominated for and won three gold statues: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. For those around at the time, Park was an undeniable marvel with said visuals and the sounds of the dinosaurs wreaking havoc. The 1997 sequel managed one nod for Visual Effects and lost to a little something called Titanic.

2001’s Jurassic Park III, no surprise, was ignored by the Academy. On the other hand, it may surprise you to learn that 2015’s World also came up empty with voters. The pic did set box office records at the time, but couldn’t even manage Visual Effects or Sound recognition.

The answer as to why could be simple. In this particular franchise, there’s really little room for improvement when it comes to its technical capabilities. Jurassic Park set a high bar in Isla Nublar  for the CG dinos and their sounds. The Academy has moved onto other impressive tech work for other pictures.

Bottom line: If Jurassic World couldn’t manage down the line nods, don’t expect any for Kingdom.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

A Monster Calls Movie Review

J.A. Bayona’s A Monster Calls finds creative ways to deal with familiar themes and it often does so quite effectively. Based on a novel by Patrick Ness (who also did the screenplay), it tells the coming of age tale of Conor O’Malley (Lewis MacDougall). Conor, as we’re told in the opening sequence, is too old to be a kid and too young to be a grown-up.

It’s at this delicate age in England that he must deal with some heart wrenching experiences. His mother (Felicity Jones) is terminally ill. Conor doesn’t particularly get along with his well-meaning grandmother (Sigourney Weaver) and his father (Toby Kebbell) resides in Los Angeles with his second family. He’s also bullied at school. The boy’s active imagination allows him to conjure up the title character. It arrives in the form of a giant tree come to life (voiced by Liam Neeson), who visits Conor promptly at 12:07. The Monster does not terrorize him, but rather tells him three tales. These are done in animated form. While they begin as fairy tale like yarns, its listener isn’t sure what to make of them as they divert into surprising endings.

We as an audience aren’t sure either and we along with Conor are told that the boy will tell the final fourth tale. A Monster Calls may contain elements you’d find in many fantasy tales, including nifty creature design and impressive special effects. Yet it’s more concerned with themes of grief and how to find ways to cope with it.

A subpar child actor performance runs the risk of spoiling material, but MacDougall shows we needn’t worry about that. He delivers believable and touching work, as do Jones and Weaver in their supporting roles. Much credit is also due to Neeson’s voice over work (look for a cameo from the actor himself that becomes pivotal after the picture’s conclusion).

Bayona and Ness tug at the heartstrings mostly without being cloying and have a splendid visual landscape to go along with it. Is the story anything truly new? Not really, but they find rather inventive ways to tell it and it earns its emotional resonance.

*** (out of four)

A Monster Calls Box Office Prediction

When J.A. Bayona’s A Monster Calls debuted in September at the Toronto Film Festival, it did so to solid buzz and even some awards chatter. Much of that talk seems to have dissipated from nearly four months ago and the pic may struggle to find an audience when it opens wide next weekend.

Based on an acclaimed 2011 novel by Patrick Ness, Calls mixes science fiction elements with tearjerker family drama in this tale of a monstrous creature helping a young boy deal with his grief. Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, Lewis MacDougall, and Liam Neeson (voicing the title character) star.

As mentioned, most reviews have been encouraging (it’s at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet I wonder what segment of the movie going public will turn out for this. The film was originally scheduled for an October stateside debut before being pushed back. Sci-fi genre fans have had plenty to feast on lately and Underworld: Blood Wars opens against it. A female crowd that might get drawn in by the family drama angle could be put off with the mystical elements. The early January release date doesn’t inspire much hope that Focus Features has tremendous confidence in it.

Festival word-of-mouth aside, I’ll predict A Monster Calls struggles to reach  a mid single digits reception. At least director Bayona can take comfort that his next feature, 2018’s Jurassic World sequel, will likely gross at least 50 times what this might in its opening weekend.

A Monster Calls opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Underworld: Blood Wars prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/28/underworld-blood-wars-box-office-prediction/

For my Hidden Figures prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/29/hidden-figures-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: A Monster Calls

Director J.A. Bayona’s name may not be too familiar yet with the moviegoing public. At least not yet. His two previous movies were acclaimed 2007 horror pic The Orphanage and 2012’s Tsunami drama The Impossible, which earned Naomi Watts a Best Actress nomination. His name ID will surely increase soon as he’s about to take on the sequel to last summer’s biggest blockbuster, Jurassic World. Or perhaps even sooner with A Monster Calls, his fantasy tearjerker which opens December 23rd statewide and screened at the Toronto Film Festival this weekend.

It’s been reported that Monster received a rapturous audience ovation after its premiere. Based on a 2011 bestseller by its author Patrick Ness, the film stars Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, newcomer Lewis MacDougall, and the voice of Liam Neeson as the calling title character. Buzz from Toronto suggests this is a weepie crowd pleaser that deals with serious themes such as parental loss coupled with more fantastical elements.

Not all critics seemed to fall for it with some calling it heavy handed. However, if Monster can break through at the box office, it could find itself with some Oscar talk in Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay. Certain technical category nods seem more likely. And Felicity Jones is said to be a highlight. She’s the It Girl of Fall 2016, appearing in this, Inferno alongside Tom Hanks, and headlining a little something called Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. Her inclusion in Supporting Actress for this one is not out of the question.

As Toronto continues, look for more Oscar Watch posts.