30th Critics’ Choice Awards Reaction

The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.

Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.

I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.

My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.

As for other categories, here’s where I was right:

Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.

Where I went wrong:

The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.

What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…

Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention

3 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

2 Wins

Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain

1 Win

Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

Picture: 5/10

Director: 8/10

Actress: 6/10

Actor: 6/10

Supporting Actress: 8/10

Supporting Actor: 9/10

Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Anora

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST COMEDY

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SONG

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Better Man

That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist

3 Wins

Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

2 Wins

A Real Pain

1 Win

Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 8/10

A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 6/8

The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.

Best Ensemble

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

How I Did: 5/6

Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

How I Did: 5/6

A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/6

A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

How I Did: 4/6

Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

How I Did: 4/6

Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Perez and not The Room Next Door.

Best Foreign Language Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 5/6

Flow and not Vermiglio.

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.

Best Comedy

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

How I Did: 5/6

I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/6

Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.

Best Costume Design

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5

How I Did: 5/6

September 5 gets in and not The Substance.

Best Hair and Makeup

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/6

I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 6/6

Yay!

Best Song

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 5/6

“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.

Best Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 3/6

My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.

And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!

11 Nominations

Conclave, Wicked

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

9 Nominations

The Brutalist

7 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

5 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

4 Nominations

Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5

1 Nomination

Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Nomination Predictions

Chelsea Handler returns to host the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards occurring January 12th and tomorrow brings the nominations. The ceremony can often be a reliable barometer for the Oscars. In the last two years, it agreed on Picture and Director with the Academy and went 5 for 8 in the acting derbies.

At CCA, there are 10 Best Film contenders and then 6 in the other races. Here’s my projections along with a runner-up selection for all competitions. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with how I did and overall thoughts!

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

Runner- Up: September 5

Best Director

Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Runner-Up: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

Best Ensemble

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

Best Supporting Actress

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariane Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Runner-Up: Selena Gomez (Emila Pérez)

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Runner-Up: Yura Borisov (Anora)

Best Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

Best Adapted Screenplay

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Best Foreign Film

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio

Runner-Up: The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Transformers One, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Piece by Piece

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

Best Costume Design

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Editing

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hair

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Production Design

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Score

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Wicked

Best Song

“Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl

Best Visual Effects

Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

Best Comedy

Anora, Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

Runner-Up: My Old Ass

Best Young Actor

Nykiya Adams (Bird), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail)

Runner-Up: Cailey Fleming (IF)

That works out to these numbers with The Brutalist leading with 11 and 4 movies tying with 10 nominations apiece:

11 Nominations

The Brutalist

10 Nominations

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

8 Nominations

Anora

7 Nominations

The Substance

6 Nominations

Challengers

4 Nominations

A Real Pain

3 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Maria, Nickel Boys

1 Nomination

Oscar Predictions: Dìdi

Writer/director Sean Wang is having a nice week. His live-action short film Nai Nai & Wai Po made the contending five in that category during Tuesday morning’s Oscar nominations. Three days later, his feature-length dramedy Dìdi won the U.S. Dramatic Audience Award at Sundance, in addition to the Ensemble prize. The coming-of-age tale stars Izaac Wang, Shirley Chen, Chang Li Hua, and Joan Chen.

With a 91% RT rating, reviews indicate this is a crowdpleaser with a memorable performance from young Wang. Don’t be surprised if a Critics Choice nom for Young Actor/Actress comes his way. The eventual distributor will need to mount a great campaign for this to generate Academy attention. It’s possible, but the critical reaction indicates it isn’t automatic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…