98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 8th Edition

There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.

With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).

Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)

5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)

13. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (E)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Sinners

Oscar Predictions: The Life of Chuck (Take 2)

In September of last year, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck was a surprise winner of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Yet it’s the Cannes Film Festival that may dash Chuck‘s hopes for awards love at the 98th Academy Awards.

Allow me to explain. The People’s Choice Award at TIFF has, for nearly two decades, been one of the more reliable indicators of an eventual Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 15 of the last 16 Choice recipients achieved a BP mention including winners Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The current streak of PCA’s to BP nominees stands at 12 in a row. In 2023, American Fiction instantly became an Academy player after the People’s prize and it resulted in five nominations.

However, distributor Neon did an unexpected thing after Chuck took the Toronto prize. They chose not to release the picture in calendar year 2024 and dated it for 2025. The sci-fi drama based on a 2020 Stephen King novella arrives in limited release on June 6th with a nationwide expansion the following week. Tom Hiddleston leads a cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, Jacob Tremblay, and Mark Hamill.

Leaving a nine month gap between the TIFF publicity and its release date was a gamble. At Cannes, which concluded just days ago, Neon went on a spending spree. The distributor bought up the rights to Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident from Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi as well as Grand Prix taker Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier and acclaimed Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent. Conventional wisdom is that Value has already reserved a slot among the ten Oscar BP contenders. Accident and Agent could also factor into the competition.

Needless to say, that leaves Neon in the mode of picking and choosing their favorites. Unless Chuck becomes a sizable sleeper hit at the box office (which seems questionable), Neon may opt to put their full weight behind their international films. Last year when they delayed Chuck, they went all in on Sean Baker’s Anora and that obviously paid off with victories in Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), and Original Screenplay.

I’ve had Chuck in my 10 predicted BP nominees for the last several weeks, including my latest update from seven days ago. When I publish my updated predictions next weekend, I suspect it will drop out. I do think it stands a solid shot at Adapted Screenplay and maybe Mark Hamill in Supporting Actor. However, Neon’s fortunes at Cannes seem to have diminished Chuck‘s exposure a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: It Was Just an Accident

Jafar Panahi’s political thriller It Was Just an Accident was a bit of a surprise Palme d’Or victor at Cannes over Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. However, its writer/director is no stranger to festival love. His 2000 work The Circle took top prize at Venice while 2015’s Taxi won highest honors in Berlin.

With a cast led by Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, and Hadis Pakbaten, Accident is a co-production between Panahi’s native Iran, France, and Luxembourg. Panahi has drawn headlines in recent years due to conflicts with the Iranian government including arrests. While his works are banned in his homeland, his filmography has drawn acclaim everywhere else and this is no exception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 88.

Either France or Luxembourg could submit Accident as their pick for International Feature Film at the Oscars. If the former doesn’t, the latter almost certainly would. The French have seen lots of their selections win or be nominated. Luxembourg would be vying for its first ever nominee. I also wouldn’t discount Panahi contending in Director and Original Screenplay. If a combination of those nods occurred, Best Picture is not off the table. After all, four of the last five Palme recipients have made final cut in the biggest category of them all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 25th Edition

It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.

This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.

There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.

Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.

Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)

14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)

24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026

Is This Thing On?

Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)

11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jack O’Connell, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, Michael

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (moved to lead actor)

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Neon Lights Up Cannes

No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.

Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.

As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.

The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).

Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.

Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.

Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.

Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…